The current and future sales impact of a retail frequency reward program

This research presents an empirical study of the impact of a retail frequency reward program on store sales. We examine both the “points pressure,” or short-term impact, and the “rewarded behavior,” or long-term impact. The points-pressure impact is due to forward-looking customers increasing their purchase levels in order to earn the reward. The rewarded-behavior impact is evidenced as purchases above baseline levels after an individual has received a reward and could result from either behavioral learning reinforcement or positive affect resulting from the reward. We investigate a turkey reward program that awarded free turkeys to shoppers who accumulated the required sales levels during an 8-week period. We find both a points-pressure and rewarded-behavior impact. These effects are statistically significant and managerially relevant in that the program is apparently profitable. The points-pressure impact is especially strong among customers who do not place value on frequent shopper programs that in general deliver immediate price discounts. The key implications are that frequency reward programs of the form, “buy x, then receive xx” can be profitable, are segmentation strategies, and can complement a store's overall frequent shopper program.     

Retail channel price discrimination

This paper examines price differentials of identical items across retail channels. Many consumer packaged goods are sold through both grocery and drug stores. Liquor is unique in that in much of the country there is a third retail channel of distribution, liquor stores. If consumers in each retail channel differ in their willingness to pay for certain items, then sellers can exploit those differences and charge different prices for the same items in each channel. We examine a unique data set of pooled cross sectional retail scanner data on wine to test whether sellers use retail channel to identify heterogeneous consumer market segments and engage in price discrimination. We begin by presenting a model of price discrimination by retail channel along with behavioural assumptions regarding shoppers in each channel. Next we examine sales by retail channel and find persistent price differentials for the same item across retail channel after controlling for sample selection bias and seasonality. Lastly, we estimate the price elasticity of demand correcting for endogeneity and find differences across channel consistent with the price differentials. The extent of price differential, however, differs significantly with respect to price point.     

Evaluating store location and department composition based on spatial heterogeneity in sales potential

In this paper, we extend a retail location evaluation model with the possibility to include the effect of department size adaptation at the store level. We relate department-level store sales to a store's competitive and demographic environment, thereby providing richer insights into the drivers of department sales than a model of just aggregate sales. Further, we accommodate heterogeneity in consumer characteristics over space by using zip code level data and unobserved spatial effects in department sales by including spatially autocorrelated error terms.Using spatial panel data for 30 clothing stores belonging to one Dutch retail chain, we demonstrate how to use the modeling approach to analyze and predict sales performance of new and existing stores. We show that the predictive performance of our model is superior to that of a benchmark model that does not include spatial autocorrelation.     

Bridge,Focus, Attack,or Stimulate: Retail Category Management Strategies with a Store Brand

We investigate a monopolist retailer's category management strategy where the main strategic decisions are how to horizontally position a store brand relative to the incumbent national brands and how to price the store and national brands for retail category profit maximization. We analyze a market composed of two consumer segments with differing tastes and heterogeneity with respect to willingness to pay and a product category consisting of two competing national brands and one store brand. We find that contrary to the existing literature, it is not always optimal for a retailer to position its store brand against the leading national brand; instead there are many situations where it is best to position the store brand close to the weaker national brand or to position it in the “middle” so it appeals to both national brands' target segments. In the process we identify four distinct category management strategies that a retailer can use with a store brand. In three of these the optimal store brand price is the brand's monopoly price, while in the remaining one strategy the price is lower. We also suggest an easy to implement means for a retailer to determine which strategy is best to use, depending on the particular competitive environment present before the introduction of the store brand and the relative quality of the store brand. We find that the store brand entry is most beneficial to the retailer when the national brands are moderately differentiated. Finally we show that introducing a store brand not only allows the retailer to garner a higher share of the channel profits through higher retail margins, but also often provides the retailer the benefit of increases in national brand unit sales as well as incremental sales from the store brand. JEL Classification: M310     

Growth factors of store brands in different store formats in Italy

Since the beginning of the consumer crisis, which in Italy can be traced back to the second half of 2008, there has been a significant development of store brands? market share which has reached close to 25% in some leader groups (for example Coop, Conad, Esselunga). The acceleration of the rate of penetration of store brands differs by category and store format. The main reason for this result is the different consumer purchase behavior. In this framework, this work aims at analyzing the elements that have determined the store brands success in the main store format (hypermarket, supermarket, convenience store), through analysis of single retail mix levers management. The factors that have mostly influenced the growth in store brands, in each store format, are investigated throughout a complete informative retail database. The aim of this study is to verify whether the management of the individual retail mix levers produces the same results in different store formats. Additional enhancement to the understanding of store brands management and further support to modern distribution management policies are also provided. A relevant finding is that the performance of store formats depends on the use of specific retail mix levers.     

The impact of daily weather on retail sales: An empirical study in brick-and-mortar stores

In this study, we examine the influence of weather on daily sales in brick-and-mortar retailing using empirical data for 673 stores. We develop a random coefficient model that considers non-linear effects and seasonal differences using different weather parameters. In the ex-post analysis using historic weather data, we quantify the explanatory power of weather information on daily sales, identify store-specific effects and analyze the influence of specific sales themes. We find that the weather has generally a complex effect on daily sales while the magnitude and the direction of the weather effect depend on the store location and the sales theme. The effect on daily sales can be as high as 23.1% based on the store location and as high as 40.7% based on the sales theme. We also find that the impact of extreme bad and good weather occurrences can be misestimated by traditional models that do not consider non-linear effects. In the ex-ante analysis, we analyze if weather forecasts can be used to improve the daily sales forecast. We show that including weather forecast information improves sales forecast accuracy up to seven days ahead. However, the improvement of the forecast accuracy diminishes with a higher forecast horizon.     

Retailer Categorization: How Store-Format Price Image Influences Expected Prices and Consumer Choices

Prior research indicates that consumers may base their retail decisions (e.g., store choice, purchase quantity) on price image, which has been defined as consumer perceptions “of the aggregate price level of a retailer” (Hamilton and Chernev 2013, p. 2). The present research shows that consumers associate different price images not only with specific retailers, but more broadly with various store formats — such as grocery stores, convenience stores, and specialty stores. Six studies provide evidence that store-format price image exerts influence on consumer price expectations and store choice decisions, and that these retailer categorization effects are distinct from the effects of retailer price image.     

The dimensions of storytelling by retail salespeople

This paper explores storytelling in retail sales to develop a more nuanced understanding of the dimensions of retail storytelling and their importance in influencing consumer behavior. A mixed-method approach is taken to first qualitatively develop understanding of the structure of storytelling in a retail context and then quantitatively test the impact of various storytelling dimensions on consumer purchase intentions. Storytelling is common in retail sales encounters and consumers perceive multiple dimensions of storytelling. Some of these dimensions – story relevance, story humor, and storytelling ability – influence consumers' consumption behavior. This research begins to establish parameters for future examination of the use of storytelling in retail selling and informs managers of specific elements of storytelling on which to focus future training efforts.     

The children's wear consumer: an investigation of store patronage patterns in the U.S.A.

With a 1991 sales volume of over 820 billion. and recent annual sales increases ranging from 3 to 7%. understanding the patronage patterns of the children's wear consumer is becoming increasingly important to apparel retailers. This study. using responses from 953 midwestern households, analysed differences between shoppers and non-shoppers of seven different types of retail institution: discount store, mass merchandiser, department store, specially store. factory outlet, catalogue order, and used clothing store. Results from t-tests and logistic regression indicated that appearance. performance and functional factors. as well as marital status, education and income are important determinants of store choice. The results suggest the importance of recognizing the benefits sought by consumers when devising marketing strategies targeted towards the children's wear consumer.     

Predicting Under- and Overperforming SKUs within the Distribution–Market Share Relationship

This research presents a retail analytics application which uses machine learning (ML) to identify and predict under- and overperforming consumer packaged goods (CPGs) using retail scanner data. Essential to measuring market performance at the SKU level is the relationship between distribution and market share (the velocity curve). We validate that ML can reproduce the velocity curve, and ML is further used to predict underperforming, in-line performing, and overperforming SKUs relative to the velocity curve, based on a range of variables (SKU features) at a point in time. Our ML approach can correctly predict 83% of SKUs as under-, in-line-, or overperforming based on their characteristics. The research analyzes 9,321 SKUs of 2,565 brands across seven product categories of CPGs which were sold in 8,117 stores from 49 different retail chains of five different retail channels located in the US states of California, New York, Texas, and Wisconsin. The retail stores comprise convenience stores, drug stores, food stores, liquor stores, and mass merchandise retail stores. The data is Nielsen retail store scanner data for the calendar year 2014. The relationship between distribution and market share is a market-wide proxy for the ratio of relative sales in a category to, for example, aggregate shelf space, a key retail productivity metric. We further find indications that the distribution of SKUs across different store sizes, the stores’ category specialization, the line length of the brands, the overall performance of the parent brand, and sales consistency are the most important characteristics for the prediction of market share performance beyond the velocity curve. The methods and results presented will help CPG marketers (suppliers and retailers) understand which SKUs are under-, in-line-, or overperforming and the potential factors contributing to that performance. Optimizing assortments and portfolios is essential to decrease failure rates of individual SKUs. ML approaches can evolve to complementary support tools for such management problems.     

Testing Retail Marketing-Mix Effects on Patronage: A Meta-Analysis

Retailers have always worked to establish close relationships with customers through the retail marketing mix. Thus, the literature has a long tradition of testing the effects of various instruments on retail patronage. This meta-study synthesizes prior research into one comprehensive framework. We use 14,895 effect sizes reported by more than 239,000 shoppers from 41 countries extracted from 350 independent samples, to test the impact of 24 marketing-mix instruments on retail patronage. Specifically, we investigate the direct and indirect effects of these instruments on store satisfaction, word of mouth, patronage intention, and behavior. Product and brand management related instruments display the strongest effects on most outcome variables, whereas price, communication, service and incentive management instruments affect only selected outcomes. Distribution management turns out to be of secondary importance. However, the effectiveness of these instruments depends on the specific shopping context (food/non-food, shopping frequency, single store/agglomeration, hedonic/utilitarian), the retail environment (gross domestic product, country innovativeness, retail sales share, retail employment, Internet era), and the employed method (participant type, study design, data source). Specifically, we reveal most differences for hedonic shopping environments and developed countries. Also, the store’s advertising and atmosphere have gained importance in the Internet era, while purchase incentives, in-store orientation, and store location have lost relevance. This study contributes to a synoptic understanding of the comparable effectiveness of retail marketing instruments on retail patronage. It offers insights into the effectiveness of marketing-mix instruments and provides guidance on whether and when to invest in them. It also presents an agenda for future research on marketing-mix instruments.     

Open all hours: spatiotemporal fluctuations in U.K. grocery store sales and catchment area demand

Conventional population estimates do not account for spatiotemporal fluctuations in populations over a diurnal timescale at the level of retail store catchments. This presents challenges for the retail location-based decision making process which seeks to predict sales volumes and their temporal characteristics prior to new store construction. We present a novel analysis of the temporal fluctuations of store sales, evidencing links between the spatiotemporal distribution of specific population subgroups and temporal store sales. Previous research linking spatiotemporal populations and store sales is limited owing to the fact that commercial data are not openly available to academic research. However, this research has unprecedented access to store level temporal sales data and an established loyalty card scheme from a major UK grocery retailer making these analyses possible for the first time. Additionally, we demonstrate that current store classifications were inadequate for grouping stores with similar sales profiles and propose four new clusters of stores based on the times of the day that they generate revenues. This development has clear academic and commercial benefits, aiding our understanding of consumer behaviours and a novel solution for improved location modelling. We lay the foundations for further research building spatiotemporal demand fluctuations into retail location models.     

Dynamic assortment in the presence of brand heterogeneity

In this paper, we study the dynamic assortment planning problem in the presence of heterogeneous brands. Over a limited selling season, the retailer sells heterogeneous products from one store brand and one national brand. We use the nested multinomial logit (NMNL) framework to model consumer choice process, in which consumers choose first which brand to buy and then a product within that brand. We formulate this problem using the finite-horizon dynamic programming approach. Using available sales transaction data, we estimate the consumer choice behavior and empirically demonstrate existence of brand heterogeneity. Further, our results suggest that ignoring brand heterogeneity will make the retailer’s expected revenues significantly overestimated, and the potential revenue overestimation depends on initial inventories and prices of products of two brands. We finally show that the retailer will benefit from dynamic assortment optimization with the estimated consumer choice model.     

Integrative effects of firms' price and endorsement strategies on consumers' loyalty intention

This research examines the effects of price and brand endorsement that are adopted by firms from a consumer-based viewpoint, and provides practical brand management discussions as a reference for both manufacturer brands and retail store brands. According to the findings, manufacturer brands support high prices and boost those vivid impressions which are helpful in engendering consumer loyalty intention. Without a careful evaluation process, a brand-endorsing strategy may prove detrimental to the manufacturer. Retail store brands follow distinct pricing policies and carry out brand-endorsed strategies. Price/endorsement stimuli influence consumer brand loyalty through the partial mediating effect of brand impression. Manufacturers and retailers could define appropriate price premiums on products with a potential for a manufacturer–retailer brand co-branding as identified by market research, thus increasing the sales of both.     

Store-, Market-, and Consumer-Characteristics: The Drivers of Store Performance

Four factors have traditionally been identified in influencing store performance: store-, market-, and consumer characteristics and competition. Given partially conflicting and, in some cases, dated findings in the literature we want to re-assess the effects. In particular, past research has usually considered only two out of the four constructs at any time, which is likely to result in erroneous interpretation of results. We draw upon a unique cross-sectional sample of grocery stores with a wide array of store characteristic, store performance, trade area, and consumer demographic variables. Using structural modeling, our prime interest is to assess the differential impact of store attractiveness, market potential, and socio-economic status on two different store performance measures, while controlling for competitive effects. We find that the market potential of a store is by far the most important driver of store sales performance and sales productivity performance. With one exception, the model and the data support the hypothesized relationships about the direction and the strength of the impact of a store's attractiveness, market potential and socio-economic characteristics of the trade area on a store's performance.     

Two Studies on Using Specialty Advertising in Retail Sales Contests

Two studies were conducted to assess the impact of specialty advertising as a promotional tool in retail sales contests. In both cases, specialty advertising was directed toward the retail sales force rather than the consumer. It was felt that s~ecialtv advertisine could perform a reinforcement and reminder role as well as a mot: vating role for encouraging retail salespeople to participate in a contest. In the first study with Chick-fil-A, specialty advertising had an overall positive impact on employee performance. Total sales vol- ume increased in three of the four stores studied, while it increased in only two of the four stores that did not receive specialty advertis- ing. And while sales volume as a whole increased during the contest period, the largest percentage of increase occurred in those stores where specialty advertising was used. In the second study, the FanFair study, the effectiveness of spe- cialty advertising was very apparent. In both markets where special- ty advertising was used, Dallas and Phoenix, sales increases in graphics-the contest'objective-far exceeded total store sales. In the market where specialty advertising was not used, Milwaukee, sales of graphics were down much more than total store sales. Specialty advertising was found to be particularly cost effective in the Dallas market, where profitability far exceeded the cost of the specialties.     

Consumer service and loyalty in Spanish grocery store retailing: an empirical study

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of consumer service on loyalty in retail establishments. Based on a theoretical discussion regarding the relationship between waiting time, product quality, store atmosphere and loyalty, an empirical research was conducted to test the proposed relationships. Multiple‐item indicators from previous studies were used to measure the constructs. Results from the study provide empirical support, suggesting that consumer service through three dimensions influences loyalty. Research results suggest that consumer service in retail establishments can be viewed as a threshold factor in order to maintain satisfied and loyal customers. Additionally, managers should consider that loyalty depends on waiting time, product quality and store atmosphere. The present study provides useful information on the relationship between consumer service and loyalty in retailing.     

CONSUMER RESPONSE TO RETAIL STOCKOUTS

Understanding consumer reaction to stockouts is a key step in measuring the cost of a stockout, which remains one of the fundamental concepts in logistics that still lacks a usable measure. Accordingly, the goal of this research is to explore how consumers react to a retail stockout. Three types of reactions were considered: substitution of the item sought, delaying the purchase or leaving the store. Results show that consumers are apparently able to insulate a recent stockout experience from their perception of other dimensions of a store's image. In addition, a multinomial logit modeling approach is used to show that (1) no significant results were found linking demographic variables to consumer response, (2) the greatest impact on the Delay and Leave behaviors is concentrated on two variables (perception that the store offers good prices and consumer surprise with the stockout) and (3) situational variables are predominant among correlates of consumer response behavior.     

Using workplace population statistics to understand retail store performance

We explore the value of recently released workplace geographies and accompanying census-based workplace zone statistics (WZS) and an associated classification of workplace zones (COWZ). We consider how these data could support retailers in their operational and strategic decision-making, including the evaluation of retail demand and retail store performance in localities where trade is driven by non-residential demand. In collaboration with major UK grocery retailer The Co-operative Group we explore the relationship between workplace population composition and store trading characteristics using a series of case study stores within Inner London. We use empirical store trading data to identify store and product category level temporal sales fluctuations attributable to workplace populations. We also use census-derived flow data to identify the spatial origins of workplace population inflow. We identify that store performance exhibits characteristics attributable to demand driven by these populations. We conclude that workplace population geographies, WZS and the COWZ afford considerable potential for understanding drivers of store performance, observed store trading patterns and evaluation of retail store performance. We suggest that the next step is to build these populations and their micro geography spatial and temporal characteristics into predictive models and evaluate their potential for store performance evaluation and location-based store and network decision-making within this sector.