玉米价格决定着肉食价格

由于美国中西部地区的洪涝灾害天气对玉米的播种面积和单产造成影响，芝加哥商品交易所的玉米期货连创新高,并带领大豆、小麦等品种集体上涨。在能源价格高位盘整之际，玉米的领涨使得振荡两个多月的农产品期货再度成为市场关注焦点。由于美国产区天气糟糕、美国玉米库存降至历史低点，以及原油高价带来的玉米能源化作用的增强，玉米已经被视为短期内具有最良好基本面的期货品种。日前，芝加哥商品交易所的近月合约涨幅已经达到33％。     

“玉米期货”千呼万唤始出来

玉米是我国最重要的粮食品种之一，占我国粮食产量的1／3，生产、消费区域分布广泛，年产量和年消费量均在1．2亿吨左右，仅次于美国，位居世界第二位。此外由于玉米产业的链条很长，目前国内约80％以上的玉米是用于饲料、味精、酒精、淀粉等的加工及制药中。由此可见，玉米在国民经济发展中占有举足轻重的地位。因而玉米期货的推出，也必将给我国玉米现货市场带来重大影响。     

美国玉米向工业原料转变

2006年8月,美国和中国的玉米都获得了丰收。在丰收的压力之下,美国芝加哥商品交易所玉米期货从7月开始一路下跌,到8月中旬跌至230美分以下,两个月急速缩水50美分。一时间,市场风声鹤唳,评论席上鸦雀无声,部分基金恐慌性出逃,市场充满“恐怖”气氛。然而,当大部分人都认定玉米上     

股指期货的风险及其防范

股指期货是以股票指数为标的物的金融期货产品,诞生于美国堪萨斯城商品交易所。作为重要的股票现货市场避险工具,股指期货是在金融市场高度发展的基础之上建立起来的。我国由于股指期货开展时间短本身证券市场发展使得我国股指货的开展面对特殊风险。发达国家和地区的股指期货风险管理为我们提供了值得借鉴的宝贵经验。本文在对股指期货进行简单介绍的基础上,重点阐述了股指期货的风险特征及国内外发展现状,并提出几点防范股指期货风险的建议。     

中国发展商品市场“画龙”还需“点睛”

大连商品交易所在日本不大为人所知，但它已经成为世界第二大农产品交易所，仅次于美国芝加哥期货交易所。自1992年建立以来，该交易所在玉米、大豆等农产品交易上迅速扩大了规模。最近，大连商品交易所也开始进行工业品交易，争取成为一个综合性商品期货交易所。5月25日，大连商品交易所开始进行聚氯乙烯期货交易。这是继2007年8月上市交易聚乙烯期货之后第二个工业品种。     

关注

10月12日凌晨,美国财政部长斯诺向境外媒体公开表示:中国已接纳了美国要求其汇率更具弹性的呼吁,并称美国将继续向中国施压,令人民币汇率自由浮动。这番简短表态对于国际上近期盛传的人民币升值传言不啻火上浇油。当日,国内期货市场便出现剧烈震荡,除玉米期货小幅上涨外,其他品种均大跌,其中沪铜、沪     

开设本土股指期货对我国金融市场秩序的影响研究

由于中国经济的持续增长,国际地位的日益提高,目前全球机构投资者及个人对中国内地股票相关产品的兴趣与日俱增,世界金融界对中国股市给予了更多的关注。香港交易所于2003年12月8日推出了H股指数期货,这是港交所继红筹股指数期货、MSCI中国自由指数期货之后又一关于中国大陆股票的指数期货。2004年10月,美国芝加哥期货交易所正式推出中国股指期货,目前新加坡交易所正在紧密锣鼓地计划推出中国A股股票指数期货。新加坡交易所的一位高层人士最近表示,上市中国股指期货“是新加坡交易所为抵消欧洲美元期货交易量下滑而采取的争取亚太地区衍…     

建议成立天津期权交易所

期权是买卖一种标的之合约（合同）。期权合约规定在约定期限内按约定价格买或卖约定标的的权力。标的可以是股票、债券、黄金、白银、小麦期货合约、玉米期货合约、外汇、利率、股票指数等等。美国期权合约规定买方可以在到期日前任何交易日履行期权合约。欧洲期权合约规定买方只能在到期日履行期杈合约。期权合约的购买方拥有在约定期限内按约定价格买或卖约定标的之权力，     

我国股指期货风险的法律监管

股指期货起源于美国.1982年2月,美国堪萨斯农产品期货交易所上市了价值线综合平均指数的期货合约,买卖极为活跃,这便是股票指数期货的雏形.1982年4月,芝加哥商业交易所推出了标准普尔500股票指数期货合约,这一合约的现货基础是在美国纽约上市和交易的500种普通股的加权平均指数.     

境外股指期货市场监管体制对比研究

2010年我国正式推出股指期货。为了进一步完善我国股指期货监管体制,促进股指期货市场的发展,笔者通过对美国、英国及我国香港地区股指期货市场监管体系的对比分析,归纳总结了这些国家（地区）在股指期货发展中的共同点和经验教训,并对我国股指期货监管体制的建设提出了建议。     

Pump Prices and Oil Prices: A Tale of Two Directions

It has been argued that retail gasoline prices adjust more quickly to crude oil price increases than to price decreases. We investigate this issue using the statewide data on weekly retail gasoline prices in the United States between January 2000 and June 2007. Our analysis does not confirm the prediction that gasoline prices adjust more quickly to price increases in crude oil prices. On the contrary, the results suggest that in some geographic areas gasoline prices could change faster when crude oil prices decrease. These findings suggest that a national or a one size fits all energy policy for the United States may be misguided.

Prices and industrial transformation

Abstract

One of the contradictions of neo-classical economic theory concerns its view of relative prices. On the one hand it is relative prices that determine the market's equilibrium position and decide what transactions will take place. On the other hand, the pattern of relative prices, or expressed differently the price structure, has been regarded as more or less immutable. Variations in relative prices have been considered short-term phenomena, after which, in time, an adaptation has taken place which has restored the initial situation. The same line of thought was also held by Wesley Mitchell, who in the dispersion of relative prices found a reflection of business cycles, but he maintained that the price system is “yet stable in the essential balance of its interrelations”.¹ F.C. Mills cited Mitchell as his authority in his comprehensive work The Behavior of Prices, and although he felt compelled to raise objections to the inference that relative prices varied rhythmically with the business cycle, he still considered that there was a limit to change in relative prices, i.e. the price structure had a fundamental stability.²     

房价盛世危言

搜索中国所有的商品与要素市场,几乎没有哪一个市场能像房地产市场那样残酷而贪婪地吞噬着百姓手中可怜的剩余资本,而在政府企图规制与诱导的目标市场中,更没有哪一个市场能像房地产市场那样令决策层感到心力憔悴.在一轮又一轮房价涨停行情的肉博之中,完全丧失话语权和谈判能力的消费者经历了一次又一次的利益流失的痛苦折磨,而宏观调控工具与手段也随之可能被历练得更加刚毅与成熟.     

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: The Increasing Role of Energy Prices

Open Economies Review - A number of researchers have found that the rate of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices has declined substantially over the last few decades. We revisit...     

Why Do Large Firms' Prices Anticipate Earnings Earlier than Small Firms' Prices?*

This paper presents evidence that the positive association between firm size and price leads of earnings is not solely a function of private search incentives for firm‐specific information. Specifically, we find that small‐firm prices also lag large‐firm prices with respect to industry‐wide information. Our empirical analysis extends Collins, Kothari, and Rayburn 1987 and Freeman 1987, who document that security‐price leads of earnings are positively associated with market capitalization. In particular, we examine the association between firm size and the timing of security returns for two components of annual earnings changes: the average change for a firm's industry and the firm's idiosyncratic change. We find that large firms' prices have a longer lead than small firms' prices with respect to both components. Large firms' early lead on industry‐wide earnings suggests that returns of large firms predict returns of same‐industry small firms. To test this implication, we construct a portfolio of long (short) positions in small firms when the prior month's returns of large firms in their industry are above (below) average for large firms in other industries. This zero investment portfolio earns 4.5 percent over 12 months.     

也说消费价格指数与房价

有分析人士认为，目前居民消费价格指数CPI的上涨幅度被低估，其原因是未将商品住宅价格指数纳入统计范围。本文认为，根据国际惯例编制的CPI已考虑了居民的居住消费，不将商品住宅价格指数纳入，是因其具有投资性质和金融资产性质；也可避免CPI因商品住宅价格的波动而出现的大幅波动，有利于客观分析和判断宏观经济的主要指标。     

Responding to High Commodity Prices

The recent commodity price boom resulted from rising demand in the face of a long period of low supply growth and market distortions. Structural factors are expected to return international commodity prices to relatively high levels as the global economy recovers. The Asian and Pacific economies and the region's poor will be among the most exposed to a rebound in prices. The recent response to high commodity prices can be improved upon. At the global level, the priority for Asian and Pacific governments is to seek a commitment to lessening distortions favouring bio-fuels. At the regional level, there is a need to address the use of trade restrictions on food commodities in Asia, notably rice. At a national level, the long-term neglect of the rural economy warrants correction; and efforts to expand and make social safety nets more 'market friendly' are called for.     

股票价格波动问题探究

股票市场是国民经济的晴雨表,股票价格波动是股票市场的基本特征之一,它受到多种因素的影响。股票价格波动合理直接关系到我国社会主义市场经济的正常发展。文章基于对股票价格的研究,主要介绍了影响股票价格波动的多种因素、股票价格的波动机理和股票价格的运动模型。