Copycat gaming: A spatial analysis of state lottery structure

In models of tax competition, tax instruments are explicit; all parties are aware of the tax and respond to incentives provided therein. In the case of state lotteries, the tax is the amount of sales collected but not redistributed as prizes. Using data from 1967 to 2000, we show that although such a tax is implicit, states still engage in tax competition; if neighboring states raise their prize payout by 10% (thereby lowering their lottery tax), the home state will respond with up to a 5% increase in their prize payout.     

Hitting the Jackpot or Hitting the Skids: Entertainment, Poverty, and the Demand for State Lotteries

A bstract .   State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue. Despite their low payout rates, lotteries are extremely popular, particularly among low-income citizens. State officials laud the benefits of lottery proceeds and promote the fun and excitement of participation. This entertainment value is one explanation for lottery demand by the poor: individuals with lower incomes substitute lottery play for other entertainment. Alternatively, low-income consumers may view lotteries as a convenient and otherwise rare opportunity for radically improving their standard of living. Bad times may cause desperation, and the desperate may turn to lotteries in an effort to escape hardship. This study tests these competing explanations. We examine lottery sales data from 39 states over 10 years and find a strong and positive relationship between sales and poverty rates. In contrast, we find no relationship between movie ticket sales, another inexpensive form of entertainment, and poverty rates.     

State Lotteries, Isolation and Economic Growth in the U.S.

This paper uses a Granger causality test adapted for use with cross-section time series data, to (1) test the relationship between lottery revenue and state economic growth (per capita income), and (2) address the importance of cross-border purchases in the relationship. Neither issue has been empirically tested previously. Previous evidence (Caudill, et al., 1995) suggests that states surrounded by lotteries are more likely than isolated states to introduce lotteries. But the empirical results here suggest that lotteries do not contribute to economic growth unless the state is isolated from other state lotteries. The importance of isolation suggests that cross-border purchases (exports) of lottery tickets have a significant impact on the effectiveness of lotteries as fiscal policies, and that "defensive" lotteries (those introduced to keep citizens from buying tickets from neighboring states) are ineffective.     

A statistical and probabilistic analysis of popular lottery tickets

We investigate statistical and probabilistic aspects of a data set of 2588 lottery tickets purchased for the German 6/49 lottery drawing of 16.10.1993 in Baden–Württemberg. Roughly speaking, each of these combinations was chosen at least 50 times above average. 288 of these most popular tickets represent past winning numbers (or modifications thereof) from various lotteries. The vast majority of the remaining tickets is filled out from aesthetic points of view. In this respect, some new random variables are introduced and studied.     

Siting noxious facilities: A siting lottery with victim compensation

This paper proposes a scheme to facilitate the siting of noxious facilities. A regional government announces that it will (a) use a lottery to choose a site for a noxious facility and (b) transfer income from tenants to host-city landowners to at least partly offset the effects of the noxious facility on local property values. The government will hold the lottery only if all citizens agree, in advance, to abide by the resulting siting decision. The lottery approach is superior to the conventional approach to siting (advance notification) in the sense that the lottery approach achieves unanimous support for the siting decision with less compensation. The compensation scheme can be financed with a regionwide tenant tax or a tax on residents in the nonhost city. For “small” compensation programs, the nonhost tax is superior to the regional tax.     

On the nature of certainty equivalent functionals

We explore connections between the certainty equivalent return (CER) functional and the underlying utility function. Curvature properties of the functional depend upon how utility function attributes relate to hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) type utility functions. If the CER functional is concave, i.e., if risk tolerance is concave in wealth, then preferences are standard. The CER functional is linear in lotteries if utility is HARA and lottery payoffs are on a line in state space. Implications for the optimality of portfolio diversification are given. When utility is concave and non-increasing relative risk averse, then the CER functional is superadditive in lotteries. Depending upon the nature of association among lottery payoffs, CERs for constant absolute risk averse utility functions may be subadditive or superadditive in lotteries. Our approach lends itself to straightforward experiments to elicit higher order attributes on risk preferences.     

On the nature of certainty equivalent functionals

We explore connections between the certainty equivalent return (CER) functional and the underlying utility function. Curvature properties of the functional depend upon how utility function attributes relate to hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) type utility functions. If the CER functional is concave, i.e., if risk tolerance is concave in wealth, then preferences are standard. The CER functional is linear in lotteries if utility is HARA and lottery payoffs are on a line in state space. Implications for the optimality of portfolio diversification are given. When utility is concave and non-increasing relative risk averse, then the CER functional is superadditive in lotteries. Depending upon the nature of association among lottery payoffs, CERs for constant absolute risk averse utility functions may be subadditive or superadditive in lotteries. Our approach lends itself to straightforward experiments to elicit higher order attributes on risk preferences.     

Universal Pareto dominance and welfare for plausible utility functions

We study Pareto efficiency in a setting that involves two kinds of uncertainty: Uncertainty over the possible outcomes is modeled using lotteries whereas uncertainty over the agents’ preferences over lotteries is modeled using sets of plausible utility functions. A lottery is universally Pareto undominated if there is no other lottery that Pareto dominates it for all plausible utility functions. We show that, under fairly general conditions, a lottery is universally Pareto undominated iff it is Pareto efficient for some vector of plausible utility functions, which in turn is equivalent to affine welfare maximization for this vector. In contrast to previous work on linear utility functions, we use the significantly more general framework of skew-symmetric bilinear (SSB) utility functions as introduced by Fishburn (1982). Our main theorem generalizes a theorem by Carroll (2010) and implies the ordinal efficiency welfare theorem. We discuss three natural classes of plausible utility functions, which lead to three notions of ordinal efficiency, including stochastic dominance efficiency, and conclude with a detailed investigation of the geometric and computational properties of these notions.     

The rise (or fall) of lottery adoption within the logic of collective action: Some empirical evidence

This paper builds upon previous work on the economics of lottery adoption by incorporating the collective action logic developed in an important series of works by Mancur Olson. Public choice research points out that legislators are rational maximizers, and act within a costbenefit framework in attempting to implement means of budget finance. Discrete-time hazard models presented suggest that lottery adoption is more likely to occur in older states where rent seeking groups are older and more organized, and can more effectively engage in efforts for collective action (and benefits). By implementing lotteries as taxshifting mechanisms, the role of, government and the direction of social evolution are also altered.     

“Reverse” nested lottery contests

This paper proposes a multi-prize “reverse” nested lottery contest model, which can be viewed as the “mirror image” of the conventional nested lottery contest of  Clark and Riis (1996a). The reverse-lottery contest model determines winners by selecting losers based on contestants’ one-shot effort through a hypothetical sequence of lotteries. We provide a microfoundation for the reverse-lottery contest from a perspective of (simultaneous) noisy performance ranking and establish that the model is underpinned by a unique performance evaluation rule. We further demonstrate that the noisy-ranking model can be interpreted intuitively as a “worst-shot” contest, in which contestants’ performances are evaluated based on their most severe mistakes. The reverse-lottery contest model thus depicts a great variety of widely observed competitive activities of this nature. A handy closed-form solution for a symmetric equilibrium of the reverse-lottery contest is obtained. We show that the winner-take-all principle continues to hold in reverse-lottery contests. Moreover, we find that a reverse-lottery contest elicits more effort than a conventional lottery contest whenever the prizes available to contestants are relatively scarce.     

Stochastic utility theorem

This paper analyzes individual decision making. It is assumed that an individual does not have a preference relation on the set of lotteries. Instead, the primitive of choice is a choice probability that captures the likelihood of one lottery being chosen over the other. Choice probabilities have a stochastic utility representation if they can be written as a non-decreasing function of the difference in expected utilities of the lotteries. Choice probabilities admit a stochastic utility representation if and only if they are complete, strongly transitive, continuous, independent of common consequences and interchangeable. Axioms of stochastic utility are consistent with systematic violations of betweenness and a common ratio effect but not with a common consequence effect. Special cases of stochastic utility include the Fechner model of random errors, Luce choice model and a tremble model of [Harless, D., Camerer, C., 1994. The predictive utility of generalized expected utility theories. Econometrica 62, 1251–1289].     

THE ‘WHO AND WHY’ OF LOTTERY: EMPIRICAL HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE SEMINAL ECONOMIC LITERATURE

Lotteries operate today in many countries around the world. This type of gambling is usually run by governments and is sometimes described as regressive. Lottery is an unfair bet, so explaining the purchase of lottery tickets by risk‐averse consumers has been a challenge for economic theory. Lotteries can be analysed from either of two economic perspectives: as a source of public revenue or as a consumer commodity. In this paper the state of economic research on lotteries is reviewed, focusing on its main empirical findings.     

财务报告成本和税收利益之间的权衡--基于存货计价方法选择的理论分析

文章以存货计价方法选择为例分析了企业如何选择会计政策的问题。当企业不考虑税收利益时,存在薪酬计划和处于债务违约边缘的公司将选择先进先出法,面临较大政治成本的公司将选择后进先出法;当企业考虑税收利益时,管理者权益比例较高且财务杠杆比例较低的公司将选择后进先出法。最后,文章指出在进行会计政策选择时,还必须综合考虑政府政策的影响。     

彩票文化能够影响企业财务违规行为吗？——来自地区彩票消费的证据

文化作为非正式制度的核心组成,是影响企业行为的重要因素。基于彩票文化视角,考察了地区文化对企业财务违规的影响,发现地区彩票文化越盛行,个体的冒险倾向和风险容忍度越强,企业财务违规的可能性越大。异质性分析结果表明:当企业面临的业绩压力较大时,彩票文化对企业违规的正向影响更加明显,而良好的治理水平有利于缓解两者之间的关系;彩票文化浓厚的地区,企业财务决策偏于激进,财务信息质量较低。研究成果为规范企业行为、促进资本市场健康发展提供了一定的理论借鉴和实践启示。     

中国体育彩票市场运营现状及方向研究

目前体育彩票市场已初具规模,体育管理人员和代理人员不断增加,经过十几年的发展,体育彩票的类型由单一发展为多样,玩法也是各不相同。然而,到目前为止,我国的体育彩票并没有一个统一的相关法规,体育彩票设置的有关机构、机构的相关编制等等都不能适应于体育彩票的发展状况,严重地影响了体育彩票的正常发展。对此应向着完善体彩市场运营法规,加强体彩市场信息披露等方向迈进。     

Lessons for Economic Reform Based on Pennsylvania's Experiences with the Two-Tiered Property Tax

A bstract .   Although economic theory indicates that the imposition of a two-tiered property tax system facilitates urban revitalization, localities in most states have not been authorized to institute a two-tiered property tax. The authority to implement such a tax is partially determined by a state constitution's uniformity and equal protection clauses and tax rate ceilings. An analysis of these provisions reveals 23 states may establish a two-tiered tax, but implementation in 20 of the states must await the passage of state-enabling legislation. Because of the dearth of experience in enacting legislation and the absence of literature that provides guidance for securing its passage, the politics of enacting Pennsylvania's 1998 statute are assessed. The case study clearly indicates that enabling legislation enjoys bipartisan support as well as the backing of urban and rural representatives. However, the legislation's fate is primarily determined by the composition of local electorates and the political power of farm lobbies.     

Irving Fisher's Spendings (Consumption) Tax in Retrospect

A bstract .   Irving Fisher wrote a significant number of papers towards the end of his career on the design of the U.S. tax system. These writings culminated in a book that he wrote with his brother Herbert in 1942. Fisher thought that the double taxation of saving under an income tax was extremely harmful to the economy and he therefore proposed a "spendings" tax or what he referred to as a "real income" tax. Even though he disliked the terminology, he advocated what today would be referred to as a progressive consumption tax. Fisher's analysis was both theoretical and practical. His 1942 book contained a proposed tax return that implemented his ideas. His analysis is surprisingly modern and relevant today. This paper presents the Fisher proposal and examines the current U.S. tax system in light of his tax views. We argue that Fisher would find that the U.S. tax system lacks intellectual coherence, is economically inefficient, and unnecessarily complex.     

Optimal strategies for the immigration lottery

This paper considers the so-called OP-1 program in which certain foreign nationals can apply to a lottery for resident alien status in the United States. Based on the way the lottery will be administered, there are advantages for a candidate to submit multiple applications. We find the optimal number of applications for a candidate to submit in order to maximize his or her chances of winning. We also consider two extensions to a multiple year lottery. Current legislation has made no provision for repeating the lottery so these extensions would be relevant only if new legislation is passed.     

A Scheme to Determine Tax Rates Fairly and Quantitatively

A bstract .   This article discusses a scheme to quantitatively determine a personal income tax rate structure based on the principle of democratic voting. Previous attempts to apply the majority voting rule largely call for voting on predetermined tax positions. In the approach presented here, each taxpayer proposes an egocentric rate system encompassing his or her own obligation as well as all other taxpayers' under generally accepted constraints. The egocentric rate systems proposed by all taxpayers are weight-averaged to determine the actual tax obligation for all taxpayers. The weights used for the average are in general proportional to the tax contribution. The rate structure can be quantitatively determined from solving simultaneous equations if the weights are predetermined. Although there are an infinite number of choices for the weights, it is argued that the "fair" manner of averaging ranges from equal representation by all taxpayers to equal representation by all tax contributions. An appropriate rate structure should be a linear combination of the tax rates derived from the two limiting scenarios. Alternative egocentric voting schemes under equal representation by all taxpayers are also discussed. While these alternative schemes are politically more acceptable, measures need to be taken to counterbalance the confiscating nature desired by the majority of the voters. Such measures may marginalize the democratic voting process and produce rate structures less progressive than those assuming equal representation of tax contributions. Although the method discussed here allows flexibility on the marginal rate progressivity, it sets the high limit that the lowest and highest income classes ought to pay.     

Regulating a Manager‐controlled Natural Monopoly with Unknown Costs

We study the regulation of a manager‐controlled natural monopoly with unknown costs, borrowing from Baron and Myerson (BM) (1982), where the monopoly is controlled by the owner. We consider the case where the regulator can tax the owner as well as the case where she cannot. We find that the optimal price schedule generally lies below the one in the BM model and that it can be as low as the marginal cost if the compensation parameter is sufficiently small and the regulator cannot tax the monopoly owner. We also identify the cases where the monopoly owner prefers to delegate the control to a manager. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.