Home sweet home: Home bias and international diversification among individual investors

A striking feature of international portfolio investment is the extent to which equity portfolios are concentrated in the domestic market of the investor. We investigate differences in home bias on an individual level by studying portfolios formed as a part of the new defined contribution pension plan in Sweden. We estimate the likelihood of home bias and use individuals’ demographic and socioeconomic features as explanatory variables. Our findings indicate that the likelihood of home bias is caused by both rational and irrational factors. Moreover, we relate home bias to investors’ desire to hedge against inflation, sophistication and overconfidence.     

Home bias among European investors from a Bayesian perspective

This paper determines to what extent the estimated expect returns on European equity indices will be affected by different degrees of prior confidence in the ICAPM. We also measure how fragile the investors’ prior confidence in ICAPM should be in order to explain the home bias of European pension funds. A Bayesian approach is used to estimate the expected asset returns under different prior scenarios. We show that a moderate mistrust in ICAPM results in estimates of the expected returns, which substantially deviate from the estimates by ICAPM. Furthermore, we find a strong home bias in most countries, which cannot be explained by any degree of disbelief in the ICAPM.     

Population age structure and household portfolio choices in Italy

Based on the exceptional ageing of the Italian population, this paper aims to contribute to the current debate on population ageing and financial markets. To this end, we use the data taken by the Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth over the period 1995–2006, and we analyse the average household portfolios in relation to age and net wealth (NW). Our analysis rests on a clustering of assets according to risk, which is different from the one used in Guiso and Jappelli (Guiso, L., and T. Jappelli. 2002. The portfolio of Italian households. In Household portfolios, eds. L. Guiso, M. Haliassos, and T. Jappelli. Cambridge: MIT Press). We find that age has affected financial choices of Italian households over the whole decade, but the portfolio age profile has significantly evolved over time with important differences across wealth quartiles. Overall, our analysis highlights a tendency towards a hump-shaped age profile of the allocation in risky assets for the most NW levels.     

Stock weighting and nontrading bias in estimated portfolio returns

Liu and Strong (2008) note that researchers often employ a simple (but incorrect) averaging approach that induces significant error into estimated buy‐and‐hold portfolio returns. This study explores the additional challenges that arise when stocks are subject to nontrading. We develop a decomposition of the total bias in estimated return into the components attributable to the stock weighting approach and the treatment of nontrading. While the latter is shown to be negligible, the former can approach 150 basis points per month. Our empirical analysis of Australian equities shows that the simple averaging approach tends to overstate the size and book‐to‐market effects, and understate the momentum effect.     

When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assets

This paper presents a model of international portfolios with real exchange rate and non-financial risks that account for observed levels of equity home bias. Bonds matter: in equilibrium, investors structure their bond portfolio to hedge real exchange rate risks. Equity home bias arises when non-financial income risk is negatively correlated with equity returns, after controlling for bond returns. Our framework allows us to derive equilibrium bond and equity portfolios in terms of directly measurable hedge ratios. An empirical application to G-7 countries finds strong empirical support for the theory. We are able to account for a significant share of the equity home bias and obtain an aggregate currency exposure of bond portfolios comparable to the data.     

A computing bias in estimating the probability of informed trading

This study identifies a factor that leads to a bias in estimating the probability of informed trading (PIN), a widely-used microstructure measure. It is shown that, along with the numerical maximization of the likelihood function for PIN, the floating-point exception (i.e., overflow or underflow) may eliminate feasible solutions to the actual parameters in the optimization problem. Approximately 44% of PIN estimates for recent stock market data may have been subject to a downward bias that is more pronounced for active stocks than for inactive stocks. This study develops a remedy to mitigate the resulting bias.     

Sovereign pension and social security reserve funds: A portfolio analysis

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have been increasing in numbers and in the global reach of their investment activities. At the same time, they seem to experience the adverse consequences of the financial crisis differently than other financial intermediaries. This paper assesses whether and how a retirement-financing purpose has affected their investment strategies since the global financial crisis, as opposed to the strategies of other public pension entities that do not operate as SWFs. We construct a sample of 12 sovereign pension reserve funds (SPRFs) and social security reserve funds (SSRFs) and analyze the effects of size, operational model, country development, the fund's experience, and quality of disclosures on strategic asset allocation for the period 2007–2014. We also investigate the relevance of “home bias.” Our results show that SPRFs invest more aggressively than SSRFs, but are less exposed to domestic investments. We do not find major shifts in asset allocation induced by the financial crisis, except for a recent decrease of home-country exposures.     

Household portfolio choices,health status and health care systems: A cross-country analysis based on SHARE

Health risk is increasingly viewed as an important form of background risk that affects household portfolio decisions. However, its role might be mediated by the presence of a protective full-coverage national health service that could reduce households’ probability of incurring current and future out-of-pocket medical expenditures. We use SHARE data to study the influence of current health status and future health risk on the decision to hold risky assets, across ten European countries with different health systems, each offering a different degree of protection against out-of-pocket medical expenditures. We find robust empirical evidence that perceived health status matters more than objective health status and, consistent with the theory of background risk, health risk affects portfolio choices only in countries with less protective health care systems. Furthermore, portfolio decisions consistent with background risk models are observed only with respect to middle-aged and highly-educated investors.     

Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning

Backcasting represents a form of explicitly normative scenario analysis. This paper reviews some of the key theoretical and methodological issues that are raised by a backcasting approach and discusses how these are addressed in the Georgia Basin Futures Project, a five year participatory integrated assessment project focusing on modeling, scenario analysis and community engagement. The paper argues for a “second generation” form of backcasting, where the desired future is not determined in advance of the analysis but is an emergent property of the process of engaging with users and project partners. In this sense backcasting contributes to a process of social learning about possible and desirable futures.Subjunctive: A: Adj. 1b. Designating a mood, the forms of which are employed to denote an action or a state as conceived (and not as a fact) and therefore used to express a wish, command, exhortation, or a contingent, hypothetical or prospective event. (Oxford English Dictionary, p. 3122)     

Home bias in equity portfolios, inflation hedging, and international capital market equilibrium

We test whether the home bias in equity portfolios is causedby investors trying to hedge inflation risk. The empirical evidenceis consistent with this motive only if investors have very highlevels of risk tolerance and equity returns are negatively correlatedwith domestic inflation. We then develop a model of internationalportfolio choice and equity market equilibrium that integratesinflation risk and deadweight costs. Using this model we estimatethe levels of costs required to generate the observed home biasin portfolios consistent with different levels of risk aversion.For a level of risk aversion consistent with standard estimatesof the domestic equity market risk premium these costs are abouta few percent per annum greater than observable costs such aswithholding taxes. Thus, the home bias cannot be explained byeither inflation hedging or direct observable costs of internationalinvestment unless investors have very low levels of risk aversion.     

My global fund portfolio is not yours: the effect of home bias on European- and US-managed convertible bond fund exposures

This paper shows that global convertible bond funds (CBFs) and their resulting equity-bond exposures are regionally biased. Global bond fund managers display home bias, resulting in CBFs that are not only tilted towards the home market but also reflect the different bond-equity exposures of European and US convertibles. More specifically we find that global funds managed by a European asset management firm are more bond-like than global funds managed by a US-based asset manager. Hence, investors have to account for the asset management company's origin to avoid that the performance of the fund and its correlation with other assets is not in line with investor's ex ante expectations about globally managed portfolios. Our results also indicate that for investors of European-based CBFs this home bias has resulted in an ex post opportunity cost up to 1.38% per year, depending on the sample period.     

“Holier-than-thou” perception bias among professional accountants: A cross-cultural study

Theoretical conceptions of culture in accounting research are controversial, ranging from highly deterministic, quantified and componential perspectives (such as Hosfstede's five dimensional model) to those that suggest continual changes in cultural values brought about by forces of acculturation. This paper makes a contribution to cross-cultural accounting research by examining the influence of competing theoretical perspectives of culture and acculturation on “holier-than-thou” perception bias. “Holier-than-thou” perception bias leads to individuals perceiving themselves as acting more ethically than comparable others when confronted with ethically uncertain work-related behaviours. This study contributes to cross-cultural accounting research by surveying Australian and Indian professional accountants from big four accounting firms. We firstly seek to establish the prevalence of “holier-than-thou” perception bias in both cultural settings. Secondly, we examine the differential and competing influences of culture and acculturation on perceptions of accountants from the two countries on measures of this bias. Data was collected through a survey questionnaire administered to samples of senior accountants from the big accounting firms in Australia and India. The questionnaire comprised an auditor-client conflict and two whistle-blowing scenarios and used two questions to measure the magnitude of the bias. The results show that “holier-than-thou” perception bias exists among accountants within each of the two countries. However, the magnitude of the bias was not significant between the countries. The results support the theory of acculturation in big accounting firms. Our findings have implications for accounting research where the presence of “holier-than-thou” perception bias needs to be considered in cases where respondents are questioned on socially sensitive issues. The findings may be useful to accounting researchers, managers of multinational enterprises in general, and big-four accounting firms in particular. Our conceptual framework applied in this study is innovative and provides a template for assessing current controversies in cross-cultural accounting research.     

Trade associations and collusion among many agents: evidence from physicians

We study a recent case where most gynecologists in one city formed a trade association to bargain for better rates with insurance companies. After unsuccessful negotiations, the physicians jointly terminated their insurer contracts and set a minimum price. We find that subsequent realized prices coincided with Nash-Bertrand prices, and that the minimum price was barely binding. We show that these actions ensured the association's stability and increased profits. Our findings shed light on the role of trade association in collusion among a large number of heterogeneous agents, and provide insights for the antitrust analysis of trade associations.     

Home Bias at Home: Local Equity Preference in Domestic Portfolios

The strong bias in favor of domestic securities is a well-documented characteristic of international investment portfolios, yet we show that the preference for investing close to home also applies to portfolios of domestic stocks. Specifically, U.S. investment managers exhibit a strong preference for locally headquartered firms, particularly small, highly levered firms that produce nontraded goods. These results suggest that asymmetric information between local and nonlocal investors may drive the preference for geographically proximate investments, and the relation between investment proximity and firm size and leverage may shed light on several well-documented asset pricing anomalies.     

International portfolio diversification: A study of linkages among the U.S., European and Japanese equity markets

In this paper, we examine the short-term linkages among five leading stock markets with the objective of evaluating the case for international portfolio diversification as well as the stability of stock market interdependence after an exogenous shock. We utilize daily closing equity price data from U.S., U.K., France, Germany and Japan during the period from January 1999 to February 2002 and investigate the joint impact of any four equity markets on the fifth market. The findings indicate that even though the interdependencies among the markets are significant, there is still room for international portfolio diversification. Also, the study provides mixed results for the hypothesis that the international market correlations change after an exogenous shock. The tests of stability of correlations are based on before-and-after analyses of two events: the introduction by the European Union of the euro as official currency and the September 11, 2001, terrorist events in U.S.     

The real effects of stock prices: learning,disclosure and corporate social responsibility

This paper develops a tractable model to study the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on real decisions (i.e., production and disclosure decisions) of a firm which can learn from the stock price. Firms with high CSR disclose more precise information, improving the stock liquidity and price efficiency, which also benefit liquidity traders and consumers. Interventions by regulators in firms’ disclosure decisions, such as mandatory disclosure, can improve social welfare, but their effectiveness depends on the degree of CSR. We also discuss the implications of learning from the price.     

Transfers and bequests: a portfolio analysis in a Nash game

This paper develops a two-stage non-cooperative Nash game framework of parental–children interactions to explain the equal division puzzle in bequests. In the analysis, a portfolio approach is adopted for characterizing how altruistic parents allocate their inheritable wealth between inter-vivos transfers and post-mortem bequests. The model includes elements of strategic altruism, exchange of family-specific merit goods, transfer-seeking behavior by competing siblings, and parents’ “post-mortem reputation” in bequest division. Allowing for children’s heterogeneity and interactions, we find that inter-vivos transfers are unevenly distributed between the children, despite an equal degree of parental altruism. Moreover, we show the compatibility of unequal inter-vivos transfers and equal bequests, regardless of earnings differentials across children.      

Parameter uncertainty in portfolio selection: Shrinking the inverse covariance matrix

The estimation of the inverse covariance matrix plays a crucial role in optimal portfolio choice. We propose a new estimation framework that focuses on enhancing portfolio performance. The framework applies the statistical methodology of shrinkage directly to the inverse covariance matrix using two non-parametric methods. The first minimises the out-of-sample portfolio variance while the second aims to increase out-of-sample risk-adjusted returns. We apply the resulting estimators to compute the minimum variance portfolio weights and obtain a set of new portfolio strategies. These strategies have an intuitive form which allows us to extend our framework to account for short-sale constraints, transaction costs and singular covariance matrices. A comparative empirical analysis against several strategies from the literature shows that the new strategies often offer higher risk-adjusted returns and lower levels of risk.     

Re-examining the small-cap myth: problems in portfolio formation and liquidation

This study investigates the realizable returns on portfolios at the turn-of-the-year. Using an intraday simulation that accounts for the volumes offered or wanted at market bid-ask prices, large-capitalization securities significantly outperform small-capitalization securities by 2.4% and 6.5%, depending on whether the portfolios were formed on the last day of the taxation year or were formed over the last month of the trading year. In no one year could the small-capitalization portfolio be completely divested by the end of the holding period, suggesting that investors are not remunerated for the illiquidity in this portfolio. Results based on returns calculated by using the mean of the bid-ask spread show that the results are not derived solely from transaction costs.