How strong are the linkages between real estate and other sectors in China?

International experience points to the critical role of stable property markets in maintaining financial stability. This paper investigates the real and financial linkages between real estate sector and other sectors. The real linkage based on input–output analysis shows that the linkages have strengthened. The financial linkages in terms of credit risk spillovers across sectors are studied by using DAG method and SVAR. We find that that credit risk in the real estate sector has large-scale spillover effects onto other sectors. Consequently, shocks to the property market could have much larger impact on the Chinese economy than suggested by headline figures.     

The relationship between a firm’s information environment and its cash holding decision

This study directly investigates the relationship between the firm’s information environment and its cash holding decision using two separate country-level events as proxies for a general improvement of the information environment: the initial enforcement of new insider trading laws and the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards. Analysing a large international sample, we find that firms reduce their cash holdings after both exogenous information shocks. We also find that the reductions are greater for firms facing greater financing constraints and agency issues, and for those for which the informational shocks are stronger. Further analyses reveal a reduction in firms’ average cash savings rate, an increase in performance, an increase in the use of external debt, a decrease in abnormal investment, and an increase in the value of cash holdings. Taken together, our results suggest that an improvement in the information environment mitigates both the adverse selection and moral hazard problems thereby, leading to a reduction in cash reserves held for transaction and precautionary motives, and the likelihood of entrenched managers building large cash balances for private benefit.     

On the ‘Review of Structure and Effectiveness of the IFRS Foundation’: the EAA’s Financial Reporting Standards Committee’s View

In July 2015 the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Foundation launched its third five year review of its structure and effectiveness of the organisation. In a public call, the Trustees solicited stakeholders’ input on the relevance of IFRS Standards with respect to broadening the IFRS scope and to the impact of new technology, on the consistent application of IFRS and on the governance and funding of the International Accounting Standards Board and the IFRS Foundation. The European Accounting Association (EAA)’s Financial Reporting Standards Committee responded to this request for views by submitting a comment letter based on research-informed opinions. This article provides an overview of this Review of Structure and Effectiveness of the IFRS Foundation and the EAA’s opinions in response to this Review.     

A super-replication theorem in Kabanov’s model of transaction costs

We prove a general version of the super-replication theorem, which applies to Kabanov’s model of foreign exchange markets under proportional transaction costs. The market is described by a matrix-valued càdlàg bid-ask process evolving in continuous time. We propose a new definition of admissible portfolio processes as predictable (not necessarily right- or left- continuous) processes of finite variation related to the bid-ask process by economically meaningful relations. Under the assumption of existence of a strictly consistent price system (SCPS), we prove a closedness property for the set of attainable vector-valued contingent claims. We then obtain the super-replication theorem as a consequence of that property, thus generalizing to possibly discontinuous bid-ask processes analogous results obtained by Kabanov (Financ. Stoch. 3, 237–248, 1999), Kabanov and Last (Math. Financ. 12, 63–70, 2002) and Kabanov and Stricker (Advances in Finance and Stochastics: Essays in Honour of Dieter Sondermann, pp 125–136, 2002). Rásonyi’s counter-example (Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1832, 394–398, 2003) served as an important motivation for our approach.     

Pricing of commercial real estate securities during the 2007–2009 financial crisis

We study the relative and absolute pricing of CMBX contracts (commercial real estate derivatives) during the recent financial crisis. Using a structural CMBX pricing model, we find little systematic mispricing relative to REIT equity and options. We do find short-term deviations from this relative pricing relationship that are statistically and economically significant. In particular, the CMBX market temporarily overreacts to news announcements. We provide evidence that this temporary mispricing is caused by price pressure due to hedging activities. Finally, an absolute pricing analysis provides no substantial evidence that CMBX contracts traded at fire sale levels during the crisis.     

On the investment–uncertainty relationship: A game theoretic real option approach

This paper examines the effect of uncertainty on investment timing in a game theoretic real option model. We extend the settings of the related recent literature on investment timing under uncertainty by a more general assumption, i.e. the investment is also influenced by the actions of a second player. The results show that a U-shaped investment–uncertainty relationship generally sustains even for infinite-lived investment projects and proper defined cash flows. However, timing of an investment occurs inefficiently late. Moreover, we show that the influence of uncertainty on the associated first-mover advantage becomes ambiguous, too.     

On the IASB’s construction of legitimacy – the case of the agenda consultation project

As an expertise-based private standard-setter, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) needs to work continuously to maintain its position as the uncontested rule-making authority of financial reporting in the international regulatory arena. The present paper analyses how the IASB constructs legitimacy in interaction with its constituents. We focus on the specific case of the IASB’s agenda consultation in 2011/2012 as this project was explicitly introduced by the IASB to promote its legitimacy. We carry out a comprehensive study of the agenda consultation that takes into account all board meetings, comment letters and public board activities. We show that the consultation activities in this project were used by the IASB to pronounce its user (investor) orientation, which, however, might be formal rather than substantial, and to integrate a loyal circle of constituents further. It is also shown that the IASB increasingly tried to portray agenda-setting (and standard-setting) as an objective and evidence-based procedure that resonates with constituents’ demands, although it might in fact enlarge the discretionary leeway of IASB (and staff) members.     

On the Legislative Investigation and Analysis of Criminal defendant’s Access to the Right to counsel

我国法律规定了被告人享有辩护权,并且这种权利的行使可以得到律师的帮助,律师在刑事诉讼中的职责就是依据事实和法律为委托人进行辩护,维护其合法权益。但是从现行制度下被告人和辩护律师所享有的权利来考察,很难说被告人真正地、充分地享有辩护权,因为在刑事诉讼中被告人和辩护律师所享有的权利十分有限,辩护律师在刑事诉讼中也不享有完整的辩护权,同时司法现况与被告人获得律师帮助权的基本要求差距甚大。本文对我国被告人获得律师帮助权制度及其运行进行了考察,并对相关问题进行了分析。     

On asymptotic properties of Bonus–Malus systems based on the number and on the size of the claims

A general framework for a Bonus–Malus system (BMS) based on the number and the size of the claims is presented, the set of the bonus classes being an interval [a,?b], say 0<a<1<b. The BMS is interpreted as a general Markov chain with state space [a,?b]. It turns out that, under certain assumptions, the Markov chain possesses an invariant limit distribution to which it converges with a geometric rate. We show how the invariant distribution can be evaluated by means of simulation. We also deal with the best possible convergence rate and show how it can be presented by means of the spectral theory of Banach spaces.     

The real value of China’s stock market

What capital allocation role can China’s stock market play? Counter to perception, stock prices in China have become as informative about future profits as they are in the US. This rise in stock price informativeness has coincided with an increase in investment efficiency among privately owned firms, suggesting the market is aggregating information and providing useful signals to managers. However, price informativeness and investment efficiency for state-owned enterprises fell below that of privately owned firms after the postcrisis stimulus, perhaps reflecting unpredictable subsidies and state-directed investment policy. Finally, evidence from realized returns suggests Chinese firms face a higher cost of equity capital than US firms.     

Banks’ reserve management,transaction costs,and the timing of Federal Reserve intervention

We use daily data on bank reserves and overnight interest rates to document a striking pattern in the high-frequency behavior of the US market for federal funds: depository institutions tend to hold more reserves during the last few days of each “reserve maintenance period”, when the opportunity cost of holding reserves is typically highest. We then propose and analyze a model of the federal funds market where uncertain liquidity flows and transaction costs induce banks to delay trading and to bid up interest rates at the end of each maintenance period. In this context, the central bank’s interest-rate-smoothing policy causes a high supply of liquid funds to be associated with high interest rates around reserve-settlement days.     

On the Effect of Bank of Japan’s Outright Purchase on the JGB Yield Curve

This paper examines an impact of Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s outright purchase on the Japanese government bond (JGB) yield curve. Particularly, we develop a simple state space model, which incorporates new factors regarding the BOJ’s announcement for its outright purchase and the current market outstanding with standard level and spread factors. Based on the model with a filtering method, we also implement an empirical analysis with time series of the BOJ’s announcement records during 2014/10/22–2017/8/3 in the quantitative–qualitative easing period to estimate the sensitivities of interest rates against the changes in the market expectation for the net supply with each sector of JGB. We expect the current work provides a basis for considering quantitative effects on the term structure by BOJ’s policy changes such as termination or significant reduction of the BOJ’s outright purchase. For instance, our scenario analysis shows substantial increase in the 30 year yield with widening of 20–30 year spread.     

Understanding the relationship between founder–CEOs and firm performance

We use instrumental variables methods to disentangle the effect of founder–CEOs on performance from the effect of performance on founder–CEO status. Our instruments for founder–CEO status are the proportion of the firm's founders that are dead and the number of people who founded the company. We find strong evidence that founder–CEO status is endogenous in performance regressions and that good performance makes it less likely that the founder retains the CEO title. After factoring out the effect of performance on founder–CEO status, we identify a positive causal effect of founder–CEOs on firm performance that is quantitatively larger than the effect estimated through standard OLS regressions. We also find that founder–CEOs are more likely to relinquish the CEO post after periods of either unusually low or unusually high operating performances. All in all, the results in this paper are consistent with a largely positive view of founder control in large US corporations.     

Is the relationship between prices and exchange rates homogeneous?

Empirical tests of purchasing power parity (PPP) are implicitly based on the conditions of symmetry and proportionality of the price coefficients. We investigate a separate condition, which we term homogeneity. Specifically, while there may be factors that drive a wedge between prices and exchange rates, when these factors are held constant we would expect a change in exchange rates to be associated with a proportional, or homogeneous, change in prices. To test for the existence of homogeneity in prices, we conduct two experiments. First, we apply a time-varying-coefficient procedure to nine euro-area countries as well as the euro area as a whole during the (monthly) sample period, 1999:M1 to 2011:M3. Second we apply the same procedure to the same group of countries, plus Canada, Japan and Mexico, over the longer period, 1957:M4 to 2011:M3. We find that averages of the price coefficients, corrected for specification biases, are uniformly homogeneous in the long run, providing strong support for PPP.     

On the ω test of dependence between statistical variables

Abstract

1. In an earlier Note¹ I have suggested to measure the dependence between statistical variables by the expression where p_ij is the probability that x assumes the value x_i and y the value y_j , while By is meant summation with respect to all i and j for which p_ij > p_i* p_*j .     

Are stock and real estate markets integrated? An empirical study of six Asian economies

Rising asset prices spurred by Asia's emerging economy have drawn much attention recently. This study examines one source of growth patterns in asset prices by analyzing the integration relationship between stock markets and real estate markets in Asia. Six economies are selected for empirical analysis: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Results show that stock markets are integrated with real estate markets in Japan, and partially integrated with real estate markets in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. This implies that these two investment vehicles are substitutable in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan, and provide diversification potential for investment portfolios in South Korea and Singapore. Examining the timing of market changes, we found the real estate market leading the stock market in some countries, and the stock market leading the real estate market in others. We conclude that stock and real estate markets show a variety of inter-relationships depending on economic and political policy environments.     

Australia’s equity home bias and real exchange rate volatility

The main purpose of this paper is to consider the effect of real exchange rate volatility on equity investment by Australian investors. Equity investment is of major importance to savers and investors in Australia. Also real exchange rate volatility is an important influence on Australia’s financial integration in the global economy. Analysis of the effect of real exchange rate volatility on Australia’s equity home bias is important since Australian dollar is a commodity currency. There is a close relationship between Australia’s terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility. Home bias is measured on the basis of free float-adjusted market capitalization in recognition of the fact that closely held shares are not available to ordinary investors. Real exchange rate volatility is measured by deviations from purchasing power parity on a bilateral basis between Australia and 35 countries. The cross-border equity investment data over the period 2001–2007 are from International Monetary Fund’s Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey. Australian investors are found to invest significantly less in a country if the real exchange rate volatility of that country is relatively high (results that are robust to standard control measures and generalized method of moments).     

Activation and variation of the United Nation’s cluster coordination model: a comparative analysis of the Haiti and Japan disasters

The coordinated response to extreme events is critical as illustrated by recent disasters in Haiti and Japan. As a way for coordinated provision of international humanitarian assistance to disaster-hit countries, the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) developed cluster coordination model (CCM). With content analysis and network analysis of OCHA situation reports, this study checked four premises regarding activation of CCM, interaction between national and international actors, roles of proximity country, and level of cluster coordination. This study found that there were meaningful variations in implementing the CCM for 2010 Haiti and 2011 Japan disasters. From the analyses, we found that the current CCM may be vulnerable to black swan disasters; thus, extensive and active estimation of national disaster management capacities should be conducted to prevent collapse of national disaster management system. However, the reconciliation of state sovereignty and international humanitarian assistance also should be considered.     

Striking a balance between ‘Sir’ and ‘Dude’

This postcard reflects on an issue common to many academics, whether they teach accounting, politics or—as in my case—commercial law to business and economics students. Creating an open and effective relationship with students is a balancing act undertaken by educators across the board—and no less by my accounting colleagues down the hall. In teaching commercial law to accounting students, I was recently reminded of the importance and occasional difficulty in maintaining a healthy ‘two-way’ relationship. I trust the following may connect with accounting educators and others who are also trying to achieve the right balance.     

On the validity of the augmented Fama and French’s (1993) model: evidence from the Hong Kong stock market

This paper investigates the performance of four-factor asset pricing model using Hong Kong stock returns. Our four-factor model is constructed by adding a momentum factor into the Fama and French’s (J Finance Econ 33(1):3–56, 1993) three-factor model. We find that the four-factor model may explain return variation using Hong Kong data. Our results show evidence that all the four factors are significant in the model and intercepts are not significant. In addition, the reasonably high values of adjusted R ² and the insignificance of an additional explanatory variable of residual standard deviation provide supportive evidence to the model. The robustness of the model is also checked for two effects: up- and down-market conditions and seasonal behavior.