Assessing market power in the U.S. commercial banking industry under deregulation

This study attempts to investigate market power in the U.S. commercial banking industry since the U.S. government began to deregulate the banking sector in the early 1990s using the static Bresnahan–Lau model (SBLM) and dynamic Bresnahan–Lau model with error corrections (DBLEC). In particular, panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques are utilized to examine the dynamic model. The empirical results of the SBLM show that the banking industry is highly competitive. The empirical results of DBLEC also suggest that the commercial banking industry is close to being perfectly competitive in the short run. By contrast, the adjustment speeds of the supply and demand sides towards the long-run equilibrium are quite slow in that market, which implies that the U.S. commercial banks enjoy a certain degree of long-run market power.     

Divestiture policy and operating efficiency in U.S. electric power distribution

Divestiture of generation assets by vertically integrated electric utilities has been a key element of restructuring in the U.S. The resulting generation sector has received much attention, but the standalone distribution sector that has been simultaneously created has received very little. This paper addresses the effects of divestiture policy on the operating efficiency of the resulting distribution utilities. Using data envelopment analysis to measure operating efficiency, we examine 73 utilities in the period 1994–2003 and find that the major divestitures that were required by state regulators had large adverse effects on efficiency, whereas utilities that divested at their own initiative had at worst neutral efficiency outcomes. These results raise serious questions about one of the centerpieces of electricity restructuring.     

Global predictive power of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market

Given the pace of increasing globalization and the pioneering role of the U.S. economy, we anlayze the global impact of the U.S. equity market’s uncertainty. The asymmetric impact of upside (downside) uncertainty, related with the upward (downward) movements of the underlying assets, has raised substantial concerns recently. We comprehensively analyze the global predictability of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market, implied by S&P-500 calls and puts, respectively. We contribute to the literature on the asymmetric impacts of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market in an international setting. Our study also complements the study on predicting international stock returns. Moreover, substantial economic value can be generated from the perspective of asset allocation. The main channel for the positive (negative) predictability of upside (downside) variance stems from its positive (negative) impacts on international investment, highlighting the leading role of the U.S. economy.     

Technical change in U.S. industries

We use the normalized quadratic cost function, introduced by Diewert and Wales (1987), to measure and analyze the rate and biases of technical change at the sectoral level in eleven major U.S. industries — manufacturing, construction, mining, agriculture, finance, health, wholesale, transportation, education, hospitality, and utilities — using annual KLEM (capital, labor, energy, and intermediate materials) data from the World KLEMS database, over the period from 1947 to 2010. We extend the work in Feng and Serletis (2008), by taking a new approach to econometric modeling, merging the econometric approach to productivity measurement with recent state-of-the-art advances in financial econometrics. In particular, we relax the homoskedasticity assumption and instead assume that the covariance matrix of the errors of the flexible interrelated factor demand systems is time-varying. We also pay explicit attention to theoretical regularity, treating the curvature property as a maintained hypothesis, thus achieving superior modeling in the context of a parametric nonlinear factor demand system that captures certain important features of the data.     

Sunspots and self-fulfilling beliefs in the U.S. housing market

This paper provides a rational expectations equilibrium framework to organize the following observations about the U.S. housing market from 1975 to 2007: (i) housing occupancy patterns were approximately constant, (ii) rents were stable, and (iii) house prices appreciated considerably in the late 1990s. I develop a model based on search and matching theory and close it by specifying a state of household confidence that is assumed to take one of two sunspot-driven values: normal or exuberant. The model generates a substantial increase in house prices and stable rents as the probability of the exuberant state increases, driven by self-fulfilling beliefs. I explore which aspects of the parameterization are important for generating a large appreciation in house prices in the model.     

Current market conditions for veterinary services in the U.S

The veterinary industry has been plagued by low growth in income, yet flourished in growth of new veterinarians. By using a labour-/work-hour approach that allows for proper matching of the data, we develop a supply and demand model of companion animal services in the veterinary medicine profession. We use data from two unique sources that allow demand estimation by companion animal type and lets supply vary by practice type. The results here suggest that low income growth, relative to doctors and dentists, may be from allowing supply to outpace demand for veterinary services.     

Mortgage market credit conditions and U.S. Presidential elections

Voters punish incumbent Presidential candidates for contractions in the county-level supply of mortgage credit during market-wide contractions of credit, but do not reward them for expansions in mortgage credit supply in boom times. Our primary focus is the Presidential election of 2008, which followed an unprecedented swing from very generous mortgage underwriting standards to a severe contraction of mortgage credit. Voters responded to the credit crunch by shifting their support away from the Republican Presidential candidate in 2008. That shift was large and particularly pronounced in states that typically vote Republican, and in swing states. Without it McCain would have received half the votes needed in nine crucial swing states to reverse the outcome of the election. We extend our analysis to the Presidential elections from 1996 to 2012 and find that voters only react to contractions, not expansions, of credit, and reactions are similar for Democratic and Republican incumbent parties.     

美国药品价格政策——促进研发与保障消费之间的权衡取舍

以美国为实例,通过文献研究分析美国药品价格制度及相关配套制度,探讨美国药品价格机制在促进药物研发和保障药品消费两大冲突目标之间协调应变及结果。药品价格政策必然要在促进药物研发和保障本国消费之间进行权衡取合,各国应该根据本国国情选择价格政策。     

An empirical investigation of herding in the U.S. stock market

This paper proposes a new empirical testing method for detecting herding in stock markets. The traditional regression approach is extended to a vector autoregressive framework, in which the predictive power of squared index returns for the cross-sectional dispersion of equity returns is tested using a Granger causality test. Macroeconomic news announcements and the aggregate number of firm-level news items are treated as conditioning variables, while the average sentiment of firm-level news is treated as jointly determined. The testing algorithm allows the change points in the causal relationships between the cross-sectional dispersion of returns and squared index returns to be determined endogenously rather than being chosen arbitrarily a priori. Evidence of herding is detected in the constituent stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the onset of the subprime mortgage crisis, during the European debt and the U.S. debt-ceiling crises and the Chinese stock market crash of 2015. These results contrast with those obtained from the traditional methods where little evidence of herding is found in the US stock market.     

Competition and price asymmetries in the Greek oil sector: an empirical analysis on gasoline market

This article attempts to investigate the issue of asymmetries in the transmission of shocks to input prices and exchange rate onto the wholesale and retail price of gasoline respectively. For this purpose, we utilise the error-correction methodology in the Greek gasoline market. The sample consists of monthly data covering the period of January 1988 to June 2006. We also try to analyse by using impulse response functions the effect of competition on the dynamic adjustment of gasoline price to which has been paid scant attention in the past. The results favour the common perception that retail gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to cost increases and decreases both in the long and the short-run. At the wholesale segment, there is a symmetric response of the spot prices of gasoline towards the adjustment to the short-run responses of the exchange rate. Lastly, after the deregulation, wholesale prices of gasoline tend to gradually restore equilibrium triggered by a price shock compared to the regulated period.     

我国审计市场结构及其优化——与美国审计市场结构相比较

中国注册会计师协会发布的<关于推动会计师事务所做大做强的意见>中提出要发展培育10个特大型会计师事务所.那么,就应解决制定该发展策略的依据是什么,哪些因素决定了中国的会计审计行业应该是更集中一些还是更分散一些的问题.鉴于我国审计行业发展还不是很成熟,因此,研究西方发达国家会计审计行业的市场结构对于中国会计审计行业的发展和体制改革就有着重要的指导意义.     

Breaks and outliers when modelling the volatility of the U.S. stock market

This study analyses volatility persistence of the U.S. stock market, after taking into account the role of breaks and outliers. By employing a wavelet-based algorithm, it identifies several outliers which are comfortably associated with major events such as the ‘Black Monday’ and the Asian crisis. There is also evidence of clustering of breaks and a substantial variation in the properties of the identified segments.     

Exchange rate pass-through in the U.S. market: A cross-country and cross-product investigation

Foreign exporters in general and Japanese exporters in particular have been observed to price to market in the U.S. Are there significant differences in the pricing behavior among exporters from different countries? Is the Japanese export pricing behavior unique? This paper addresses these questions and finds that while there is obvious variation in exchange rate pass-through among products, which relates significantly to the degree of product differentiation, no single exporter to the United States is unique in their pricing behavior.     

Derivatives holdings and market values of U.S. bank holding companies

We examine the impact of derivatives held by US bank holding companies on their market valuations over the period 2000 to 2010. By using bank-level data with detailed information on the notional amounts of derivative positions according to holding purposes and underlying asset types, our regression analyses provide three main findings. First, derivative instruments held for hedging rather than trading purposes contribute to enhancing market values. Second, the positive effects exhibit nonmonotonic patterns indicating that excessive amounts of derivatives holdings deteriorate market values. Third, interest rate derivatives are the main source of high valuations.     

Technological change under residual risk regulation: The case of coke ovens in the U.S. steel industry

An engineering-economic model is used within a dynamic setting to determine the least cost mix of investment and import activities as the U.S. steel industry faces successively tighter controls on coke oven emissions over the next 10 years. In response to Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) standards proposed for 1995, U.S. steel producers would likely export their toxic pollution by importing 6 million tons of coke per year. About 4 million tons of coke oven capacity is retrofit and about 1 million tons of annual coke consumption is replaced by new iron technologies, such as Corex. The Lowest Achievable Emission Rate (LAER) standards proposed for 1998 roughly double the coke oven retirements estimated to occur under MACT. Coke imports also are substantial but are no higher than under MACT because the additional time allows the industry to invest in more coke-saving blast furnaces and in new less toxic coke-making technologies, such as the Jewell process. The LAER standards in conjunction with higher capital costs, however, force coke imports to more than 8 million tons per year and sharply increase imports of semi-finished steel. Such a situation could exacerbate existing disputes on international steel trade.The authors are associate professor, instructor, and graduate student, respectively. This research was performed under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Mines Distinguished Young Scholar Award Administered by Oak Ridge Associated Universities for the Bureau of Mines. Naturally, the usual disclaimer applies.