隐性约束、声誉约束与农户借贷行为

农户作为农村地区资金主要需求者,资金主要来源于无(低)息的亲戚朋友借款和高利息的非正规金融市场借款,缺乏价格适当的借款途径。在隐性约束与声誉约束双重机制并存的农村金融市场,引入隐性约束和声誉约束变量,围绕农户借款选择行为构建局部均衡模型,分析双重约束机制对农户借贷行为的影响。通过实地调研问卷并运用主成分分析法,基于农户自身特征,解释双重约束条件下农户借贷行为的影响因素。     

基于结构方程模型的黄土丘陵区商品型生态农业系统耦合关系分析

黄土丘陵区生态环境脆弱,农民增收与生态恢复是该区域的2大主要需求。商品型生态农业能够使满足这2个需求的"行为过程"有机结合,实现产业与资源的耦合。商品型生态农业系统要素之间存在复杂的耦合关系,为此引入"结构方程模型"。通过对典型流域(村)124户农户资料的分析与建模,结果表明:农业产业对商品型生态农业系统耦合态势具有直接影响作用,即农业产业构成了农户商品型生态农业建设的主体,而"耦合态势"却决定了农户对生态环境和社会发展的认识;在"系统运行过程中",农业资源、农户环境与农业产业具有两两相关性,且农业资源与农户环境的变化通过产业的发展传递并影响到农户生态经济系统耦合态势。这一结果与商品型生态农业的理念相吻合。为此,必须提高农户对社会经济发展的感知程度,合理、有效的利用农业资源,促进产业与农业资源的优化耦合。     

商品经济观念促进农户致富的机理研究

一切导致家庭贫困和社会经济不发展的劳动力素质低下的原因都可以归结为劳动力思想观念素质低下,人的文化、技能、健康等素质最终要受其思想观念素质的制约.农户商品经济观念制约其农户商品生产和商品交换行为进而影响农户家庭贫富.为此,要通过宣传培训、政策引导、利益驱动、典型带动、招商引资等途径,培育农民的市场参与意识、市场竞争意识、市场风险意识、市场约束意识.     

中国二元经济转型的难点及其破解思路

中国二元经济转型面临着产业结构升级与劳动密集型产业发展的两难抉择、资源环境与市场需求的双重约束、市场与政府的双重失灵等诸多难点问题。通过工业化、农业现代化与城市化相互促进、良性循环的多元化道路,以及以多元化发展道路为核心的对策体系,可以化解农业剩余劳动力转移与城市就业的双重压力,解决产业结构升级与劳动密集型产业发展的两难抉择;而技术创新与制度创新则可以突破资源环境与市场需求的约束,防止市场与政府失灵,确保中国能沿着多元化发展道路,完成由二元经济向现代化一元经济的转型。     

新疆特色农产品市场竞争力影响因素初探

随着全球经济一体化进程的加快,我国社会主义市场经济新体制框架基本完成,并逐步完善,农业生产力水平和商品化程度快速提高,农产品市场已由卖方市场转向买方市场,农业发展的制约因素由原来的单一资源约束变为资源和市场的双重约束,提高农产品市场竞争力己成为我国农业经济持续增长、农民增收的重要途径.目前,我国加入WTO在即,实施西部大开发战略也己拉开序     

资源、环境双重约束下辽宁沿海经济带小微企业主导产业选择

在辽宁沿海经济带小微企业的发展过程中,由于资源供需矛盾尖锐、环境承载力有限,致使其发展受到资源、环境的双重约束。本文以此为依据,分别对辽宁沿海经济带小微企业发展所面临的资源约束和环境约束进行详尽分析,指出辽宁省工业主导产业选择需在资源、环境的双重约束下进行,最后,将资源、环境双重约束以基准形式纳入主导产业选择过程中,并依据基准的综合分析,选择通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业、金属制品业等七个产业作为未来一段时期内辽宁省工业的主导产业。     

地理环境对农户外出务工行为的影响探析

根据对河南省农区11村1 000余户农户的人户调查资料.分析了地形条件、交通条件、农业生产类型、经济发展水平等不同地理环境约束下的外出务工行为.构建农户外出务工行为模型,分析外出务工行为对农户经济的贡献.结论表明,地理环境对农户外出务工影响的顺序为经济发展水平>地形条件>交通条件>农业生产类型.     

农户低碳行为对其生产绩效的影响——基于湖北省的农户调查数据

将农业碳排放和碳汇等生态因素引入传统农业经济绩效核算分析框架,运用SBM模型测算农户低碳生产绩效,考察无效率决策单元的投入要素冗余率及农户低碳参与行为对其低碳生产绩效的影响效应。研究表明:(1)农户低碳生产绩效水平较低,且样本间差异性较大,与最优决策单元相比,资源过度消耗和农业碳排放产量高均是农户低碳生产绩效低下的重要原因;(2)通过传统生产绩效与低碳生产绩效的对比分析发现,低碳生产绩效小于传统生产绩效,表明以往忽视农业碳排放、碳吸收的环境约束因素会高估农户的生产绩效水平;(3)现行低碳减排政策的执行和实施效果不一,具体而言,参与低碳减排工程对低碳生产绩效具有显著正向影响效应,但控制了样本选择性偏误等问题之后,秸秆禁烧与综合利用工程和农机节能升级工程的正向影响不再显著。     

环境规制、数字化信息渠道与农户亲环境行为

促进农户向绿色生产与生活方式转变对推进中国农业发展全面绿色转型意义重大,这决定了剖析农户亲环境行为逻辑的重要性。论文基于构建的“环境规制—数字化信息渠道—农户亲环境行为”分析框架,运用中国土地经济调查中的农户数据和二元Probit模型进行了实证研究。结果表明：约束型与激励型环境规制正向引导农户亲环境行为,这一结论经过稳健性检验后仍成立;而且,约束型与激励型环境规制在不同情境下对引导农户亲环境行为存在明显异质性;进一步分析发现,数字化拓宽农户的环境规制信息获取渠道,增强农户的信息获取能力,促进农户环境规则感知,进而促使农户采取亲环境行为。基于上述结论,本文认为环境规制对激励农户亲环境行为是重要的,但数字化赋能环境规制的内生逻辑则是关键一环。     

中国农业的绿色生产率革命:1978—2008年

论文在采用单元调查评估法对分省农业污染排放量进行核算的基础上,应用考虑非合意产出的非径向、非角度SBM方向性距离函数表述的全要素生产率模型,对资源与环境双重约束下农业绿色生产率增长进行核算,考察农业发展与资源、环境的统筹兼顾关系,阐释绿色生产率增长背后的制度原因。论文认为,环境问题很大程度上仍是一个发展问题,农业增长要处理好资源、环境与发展的关系,通过实现绿色生产率革命来推动农业"又好又快"的发展。     

我国房地产税制的现状及改革构想

房地产税制是维护房地产市场公平竞争，实现国家对房地产业宏观调控的有力杠杆。然而，我国现行的房地产税制却存在税费不分、税制不统一、税制结构不合理等诸多问题。严重影响了其对房地产业应有的宏观调控作用。因此，适时地推进房地产税制的改革应是当务之急，应统一内外税制，合理界定税费的范围，建立统一、规范、合理的房地产税收体系。     

上海生态农业发展影响因素研究

文章分析了上海生态农业发展的影响因素,并利用计量模型进行检验,认为影响上海生态农业发展的主要因素有农业基础设施、农业劳动力资源、农业产业化水平、农业科技实力状况。     

Public participation in forestry in Turkey

Recently public participation in forestry has been seriously considered in Turkey. Participation is however quite a challenge for a country with a long tradition of top-down management and a strong bottom-up dependence on public provisioning. In such a setting, it may not be surprising that the experiences with public participation in forestry in Turkey are mixed. There are some positive initiatives like the creation of farmer's cooperatives and NGOs, but their role is quite limited and small of scale. This paper is bringing together different views based on existing studies in Turkish related to Turkey's experience with implementing public participation in forestry.     

西部地区人力资本投资与知识化发展

人力资本投资在推动知识化发展的过程中存在自增强机制，通过促进人力资本保值增值，进行人力资源合理配置，改善配置环境和配置政策、完善配套措施，有助于充分发挥这一机制的功能，从而实现西部地区知识化发展。     

Inter-enterprise arrears in economies in transition

In the context of economies in transition, the paper argues that an excessive liquidity squeeze could throw the economy into a persistent state of low economic activity. In such bad equilibrium, enterprise transactions become largely demonetized, with a chain of arrears, a form of involuntary credit, spreading over the entire system. The empirical analysis of the Romanian experience seems to support the view advanced in the paper.     

Is wealth found in the soil or in the brain? Investing in farm people in Malawi

Should a typical developing country invest more in agriculture or education? At what stage of development is it optimal to invest more in each of these sectors? These are important questions that governments of developing countries grapple with when designing investment plans. In this paper, I propose a soil–human capital conceptual framework of development and use it to explain estimates of agricultural returns to schooling in Malawi. I use panel survey data for Malawi and rely on the exogenous education policy changes and spatial variation in access to schooling to identify effects of schooling on agricultural incomes. In addition, I correct for selection into income activities within a panel data and instrumental variables estimation framework. I find annual agricultural returns to schooling in Malawi of 3%–4% after correcting for selection and unobserved heterogeneity and 7% in the uncorrected specifications. I also find consistently higher returns to schooling in the nonagricultural sector for those not living in the village of birth and higher returns in the agricultural sector for those living in the village of birth. Given the size of the farm sector, wealth in Malawi is still in the soil, but that future growth in wealth depends on human capital investments.     

Gender Differences in Time-Poverty in Rural Mozambique

Based on time-use data from a 2013 primary household survey, this study examines the nature and extent of time-poverty experienced by men and women in peasant households in Mozambique. The main findings indicate that while women's labor allocation to economic activities is comparable to that of men, household chores and care work are almost entirely women's responsibility. The heavy burden of responsibilities leave women significantly time-poorer compared to men. Women's time-poverty worsens when the burden of simultaneous care work is taken into account. In addition, due to multitasking, the work tends to be more taxing. The examination of determinants of time-poverty shows that common measures of individual economic power, such as assets and education, do not necessarily affect the time-poverty faced by women.     

2010年黑龙江省宏观经济展望

受世界金融危机的影响,从2008年下半年起黑龙江省经济持续走低,2009年一季度跌入谷底。2009年前三季度,在国家扩大内需的政策刺激下,黑龙江省经济企稳回升,但经济运行中还存在出口下滑、物价水平较低等问题,经济下行的压力仍然存在,经济持续回升的基础尚待巩固。展望2010年,国家将继续实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,随着政策效应的逐步释放,内需对经济的拉动作用仍将十分强劲,另外,随着世界经济的复苏,黑龙江省外贸形势也将逐渐好转,在＂投资、消费、出口＂这三驾马车的共同作用下,2010年黑龙江省经济将步入全面复苏通道。     

Trade-offs in sulfur emission trading in Europe

How to implement emission trading is one question in the current negotiations on a new sulfur protocol in Europe. Whereas the current protocol stipulates a 30 percent uniform reduction, national emission ceilings included in the proposed new protocol imply differentiated reductions. In addition, emission and fuel standards are proposed. This paper examines the costs and environmental impacts of emission trading. Emission trading combined with regulations is a new element in the paper. Calculations using the RAINS (Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation) model suggest that overlaying emission trading on regulations not only reduces the cost savings but has beneficial impacts as well: ecosystem protection is not changed and significant decreases in environmental benefits for countries are largely avoided. Emission trading can also be used to decrease emissions and increase ecosystem protection. If combined with existing legislation, emission trading minimizes losses in expected environmental benefits for some countries, and most countries gain. However, the initial distribution of emission ceilings has to be used so that some countries are not confronted with higher costs. Trade-offs appear to exist between the use of emission trading to achieve cost savings on the one hand, and ecosystem protection and distributional equity on the other.     

Agricultural Roots in Intergenerational Transfers in China

Economists have been interested in the motivations of intergenerational transfers, for different motivations affect the effectiveness of anti-poverty public transfers. However, one’s motivation is largely shaped by culture and social conventions. This paper sheds light on the influence of rice cultivation in intergenerational transfers in China. This is also the first time that economists consider cultural factors in the study of intergenerational transfers. Cultivating rice requires elaborate irrigation systems and large amounts of labor input so that rice farmers have to cooperate extensively with their neighbors, which has gradually shaped people’s value to be more inter-dependent. Based on micro-level data from CHARLS and sub-national rice data from China, our empirical results show strong evidence that individuals from rice regions are more likely to provide economic support for their parents. A one-percentage point increase in the share of rice in the total grain planting area will raise transfer incidence by 0.2–0.4 percentage points, and rice region residents transfer on average 300–400 yuan more in 2011 and about 1,000 yuan more in 2013 to their parents than those from wheat regions. Meanwhile they are more inclined to rely on their adult children for elderly support. Urban citizens are less affected. Using instrumental variable estimation, we are able to prove the effect is causal. With future continued deepening of population aging in China, relying on children for old age support may become more and more unrealistic, the government needs to coordinate the relationship between public transfer and private transfer to ensure the quality of life for the elderly.