国内旅游收入影响因素的计量分析

首先将国内旅游收入影响因素归纳为国内旅游人数、城镇居民人均旅游花费、农村居民人均旅游花费、铁路营业里程、公路里程、利率水平等。然后,以旅游收入影响因素作为解释变量,建立旅游收入的多元线性回归模型,并运用1994—2012年数据,对中国国内旅游收入影响因素进行计量分析。最后,针对中国国内旅游收入影响因素,提出提高旅游收入的发展对策。     

长江沿线10省区国内旅游的时间同步性及区域响应

以1995-2007年国内旅游客流量和旅游收入为指标,分析了长江沿线10省区国内旅游业发展的时间同步性及区域响应.结果显示:从1995-2007年,长江沿线10省区国内旅游具有较高的时间同步性,1995-2001年平缓增长,2002-2007年加速增长;旅游增长率变化"三起两落",波动曲线"同涨同落";依据增长趋势线及相关系数的差异,将长江沿线10省市划分为3种类型.然而,由于政策推进、旅游投资、资源禀赋、交通区位等的差异,各省区国内旅游的发展具有不同的区域响应,分两个时段,分别统计了1995-2001年和2002-2007年各省区国内旅游的基期值、增长指数和平均增长率,依据各阶段基期值和平均增长率的大小,划分出国内旅游发展的地区差异和响应类型.     

基于结构突变理论的国内出游率趋势探析

通过考虑结构变化的单位根检验发现,1985～2008年的国内旅游年人均出游率是一个带有两个结构突变点的趋势平稳过程。1993年为截距突变点,2002年为截距与趋势双突变点。2003年后的出游率年均增长量远高于前期,以现有趋势看,可提前一年达到我国提出的2015年居民年均出游超过2次的发展目标。     

城市化与经济发展实证分析

本文目的在于研究城市化与经济增长之间的关系,利用最小二乘法对1978-2008年的城市化率和人均国内生产总值的数据进行分析,得出经济增长对城市化率的弹性为4.59,城市化率与经济增长之间存在着明显的相关性,同时寻求如何合理推进城市化进程的方法。     

河北省房地产业带动效应分析

房地产业是随着工业化、城市化进程而发展起来的一个重要行业,城市化是房地产发展的重要推动力量.世界各国的经验数据表明,当一个国家城市化率达到30%以后,城市化进程将大大加快,直到城市化率达到70%左右才逐渐稳定下来.钱纳里认为,在人均GDP560～1120美元时,工业化将进入加速发展阶段.     

电影引致旅游的理论模型与计量分析

基于"推—拉"理论和现有实证结论构建了电影引致旅游的理论模型,并利用2000—2011年中国31个省级行政区域的空间面板数据,从旅游者和目的地两个视角对电影与旅游需求的关系进行了实证检验。研究发现:电影能够有效激发或者强化旅游者的旅游动机,从而提升旅游者的出游率和旅游花费,但电影对城乡旅游者行为的影响存在差异;电影事业投入与旅游目的地旅游收入显著正向相关,但电影观影人次和电影票房对旅游需求的影响有所不同,电影观影人次能够更为显著地带动目的地旅游收入提升。因此,多渠道提升电影观影人次应该是目的地介入电影摄制和发行各个环节的重点目标。     

中国城镇化与旅游业发展的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的分析

城镇化与旅游业之间的关系是国内外相关学者所关注的热点。本文利用中国1988-2012年城市化率和旅游收入数据,基于协整分析和向量自回归模型对城市化进程和旅游业发展的动态关系进行分析。分析得出城镇化分别与中国旅游总收入、国内旅游收入之间存在长期均衡关系,而城镇化和国际旅游收入之间在城镇化率达到30%以后也存在长期均衡关系;在短期,旅游规模与城镇化之间关系没有达到最优化,城市化达到一定水平时,城市化对旅游的贡献率急剧减小,而旅游对城市化贡献较大。文章最后根据研究发现提出相关的政策建议。     

中国城市化效率的时空分异与作用机理

本文运用数据包络模型,对中国大陆30个省区2002-2011年城市化效率进行了实证检验,结果发现:10年间,中国城市化效率整体呈现波浪式下降的演进过程,全国处于生产前沿面的省区数量总体上也呈现下降的趋势,且空间分异也发生了根本性的变动.以2011年为典型年份对城市化效率进行全面分解,同时运用Trobit回归模型对其作用机理进行了探讨,研究表明:经济规模总量等要素对城市化效率具有正向促进作用,城市空间的人口承载力则对城市化效率具有负面阻碍作用.     

我国旅游业收入影响因素的计量分析

旅游是人类社会生活和社会交往的重要组成部分,旅游业随着时代进步而不断发展.本文根据我国1994-2008年旅游相关数据,对影响我国旅游业收入的因素进行分析.就城镇居民人均可支配收入、农村人均收入、旅游人数、人均旅游消费和全国旅行社数量对国内旅游收入的影响进行实证研究.在收集了相关的数据基础上,利用EVIEWS软件对计量模型进行了参数估计和检验,并加以修正.分析结果表明,所研究的因素都与国内旅游收入显著相关.最后,针对我国目前的国内旅游现状提出了有针对性的建议.     

深圳市商品住宅市场二元房价走势概述

从可持续发展来看,城市房地产水平特别是居住水平与其经济水平和城市化水平的发展阶段相一致。基于深圳名列国内榜首的人均GDP、低失业率、人口规模和外来人口持续增加及港人北上置业,有置业、结婚、改善的刚性需求;加之特区成立近30年居民财富集聚效应,中产阶级和富裕阶层增加快。未来几年,特区内外、高端和普通商品住宅分化成差异性越来越大的二元房价走势。     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。     

风险视角下企业治理结构和研发创新——基于委托代理模型的研究

本文基于委托代理模型,从风险的视角研究企业治理结构对研发创新能力的影响。本文构建了一个包含创新活动的委托代理模型进行理论分析,利用动态DEA 模型测算创新能力,并使用2015-2018年我国上市制造业企业数据进行实证检验。实证部分检验了理论结论:委托代理问题不利于企业提升研发创新能力,且客观风险和主观风险厌恶会加剧该负面影响。基于此,本文认为上市企业应根据企业自身研发活动特点有针对性地改善企业治理结构,提出了适当延长代理人任期、推动股权激励计划、提升代理人的风险承担能力等建议。     

Nonlinearity in Stock Exchange Markets: The Case of Bist 100 Indices

In this paper,using data for the Bist 100 index,we investigate the presence of nonlinearities by employing several nonlinearity tests.The Brock,Dechert,and Sche...