股改对价计算依据与公允对价计算原则探讨

通过对22家股改试点代表性公司对价计算依据的逐一分析，其对价依据可归纳为保值法、退款法、让利法、保价法、直接法和待定法6种。其中前4种是可以推广的主要方法。那么针对试点过程中对价依据存在的问题如何加以改进则是值得研究的课题。     

连续监测方法在全国碳市场应用的挑战与对策

全国碳市场启动在即,探索适合的碳排放量化方法具有重要现实意义。本文介绍了国内外连续监测方法的应用现状,比较分析了基于核算的方法与基于连续监测的方法的优缺点,剖析了在我国碳市场中应用连续监测方法面临的问题和挑战。本文建议在推广连续监测方法之前,需要选取试点设施获取实际应用经验,建立监测、报告、核查和认证等一系列配套的支撑体系,并解决与传统污染物监测设备的一致性问题以及与核算方法确定的历史排放数据的一致性问题。     

盐酸左氧氟沙星片微生物限度检测的方法学建立和验证

目的建立了盐酸左氧氟沙星片微生物限度的检测方法,并对方法学进行验证。方法采用低速离心结合薄膜过滤手段建立盐酸左氧氟沙星片的微生物限度检测方法。结果细菌计数及控制菌用薄膜过滤法检查,霉菌及酵母菌计数用常规法检查。结论该方法准确、可靠,适用于左氧氟沙星片的微生物检查。     

A novel nonlinear value-at-risk method for modeling risk of option portfolio with multivariate mixture of normal distributions

This paper proposes a novel nonlinear model for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) when the market risk factors of an option portfolio are heavy-tailed. A multivariate mixture of normal distributions is used to depict the heavy-tailed market risk factors and accordingly a closed form expression for the moment generating function that can reflect the change in option portfolio value can be derived. Moreover, in order to make use of the correlation between the characteristic function and the moment generating function, Fourier-Inversion method and adaptive Simpson rule with iterative algorithm of numerical integration into the nonlinear VaR model for option portfolio are applied for calculation of VaR values of option portfolio. VaR values of option portfolio obtained from different methods are compared. Numerical results of Fourier-Inversion method and Monte Carlo simulation method show that high accuracy VaR values can be obtained when risk factors have multivariate mixture of normal distributions than when they have normal distributions. Moreover, VaR values obtained by using the Fourier-Inversion method are not obviously different from VaR values obtained by using Monte Carlo simulation when market risk factors have normal distributions or multivariate mixture of normal distributions. However, the speed of computation is obviously faster when using Fourier-Inversion method, than when using Monte Carlo simulation method. Besides, Cornish Fisher method is faster and simpler than Monte Carlo simulation method or Fourier-Inversion method. However, this method does not offer high accuracy and cannot be used to calculate VaR values of option portfolio when market risk factors have heavy-tailed distributions.     

创新方法应用系统集成三维度模型

针对创新方法繁杂、缺少系统性梳理的现状,提出了基于创新周期谱、创新原理、创新思维的创新方法分类梳理体系,提炼出基于创新原理、创新思维、创新方法应用特征参数的创新方法应用集成三维模型,构建了创新方法的规范定义体系。     

风险度量的经济学理性与风险度量方法比较

本文引入风险度量的经济学理性概念:一种风险度量方法为经济学理性的是指,这种方法对风险的度量结果与经济学中理性人对风险的排序结果相一致,采用这种方法度量风险的决策者,其决策结果也是经济学理性的。本文从风险状态下的决策理论出发,论证了在银行监管问题上,经济学理性的风险度量方法需要满足的条件。结合银行资本充足率监管的演进趋势,比较了几种重要的风险度量方法,并提出了一种经济学理性的、符合银行监管需要的风险度量方法。     

“互联网+”下大规模个性化定制产品的三元证据融合配置方法

为了解决“互联网+”大规模个性化定制下存在的产品配置方案规模大、参与定制主体数量多等问题,首先针对客户异质性特点,结合产品参数约束和实例推理给出了产品配置备选方案的界定方法,然后基于基本信度分配函数构建了能够从企业、消费者、客户3类主体中有效提取经验证据、评价证据、偏好证据的三元证据获取方法,并依据证据推理方法构建了可以对同时存在可靠性和重要性两种性质的三元证据进行融合决策的方法步骤,最后以红领西服定制为样本模拟了提出方法的具体操作过程,验证了方法的应用可行性。     

A Poisson ridge regression estimator

The standard statistical method for analyzing count data is the Poisson regression model, which is usually estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) method. The ML method is very sensitive to multicollinearity. Therefore, we present a new Poisson ridge regression estimator (PRR) as a remedy to the problem of instability of the traditional ML method. To investigate the performance of the PRR and the traditional ML approaches for estimating the parameters of the Poisson regression model, we calculate the mean squared error (MSE) using Monte Carlo simulations. The result from the simulation study shows that the PRR method outperforms the traditional ML estimator in all of the different situations evaluated in this paper.     

The Effect of Protest Votes on the Estimates of WTP for Use Values of Recreational Sites

Contingent valuation studies are often characterized by a considerable number of protest responses, which may cause selectivity bias on the final estimates for WTP. Sample selection models can detect and – if necessary – correct selectivity bias. In economic applications where the relevant dependent variable is continuous, sample selection models are generally estimated using Heckman's 2-step method rather than the FIML estimator. Either method has its own drawback: computational complexity for the FIML method, susceptibility to collinearity problems for the 2-step method. Using data on valuation of forest resources for recreational use, we analyse the performance of the two estimators. In this application, given the presence of some collinearity, the FIML is preferred to the 2-step method. A procedure is outlined to deal with selectivity problems in similar settings.     

百分位数回归及应用研究

在进行定量分析时,最小二乘法已经成为一种可信赖的工具。但是运用最小二乘法的条件比较高,在实际问题中,完全满足条件的情况并不多见,那么在应用时就难以得到无偏的、有效的参数估计量。针对上述问题,以OILPLUS公司取暖用燃油消耗的分布为主要研究对象,在进行参数估计时,应用百分位数回归方法,既可以看到采用百分位数回归方法与采用最小二乘法得到的模型显著不同,又可以得到比最小二乘法更为丰富的信息。     

无约束优化问题的一种改进的共轭梯度法

共轭梯度法是求解大规模约束问题的有效算法,的选取不同构成不同的共轭梯度法,由此通过修正提出了求解无约束优化问题的一种改进的共轭梯度法,并在wolf线搜索下证明了它的全局收敛性。     

Comparing benefit estimates from travel cost and contingent valuation using confidence intervals for Hicksian welfare measures

An approach to determining whether benefit estimates derived from the travel cost method and contingent valuation method are statistically different is presented. Unlike past comparisons compensating variation is estimated for both methods. Benefit comparisons are made more rigorous by use of confidence intervals which are developed using the same Krinsky and Robb simulation technique for both valution mothods. The techniques are applied to deer hunting in California. While point estimates of benefits from both truncated and untruncated adjusted travel cost methods are lower than the contingent valuation method, the confidence intervals on the untruncated travel cost method do overlap the contingent valution method benefit estimates.     

Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series for Forecasting the Production Value of the Mechanical Industry in Taiwan

Based on the seasonal time series ARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)_s model (SARIMA) and fuzzy regression model, we combine the advantages of two methods to propose a procedure of fuzzy seasonal time series and apply this method to forecasting the production value of the mechanical industry in Taiwan. The intention of the article is to provide the enterprises, in this era of diversified management, with a fresh method to conduct short-term prediction for the future in the hope that these enterprises can perform more accurate planning. This method includes interval models with interval parameters and provides the possibility distribution of future value. From the results of practical application to the mechanical industry, it can be shown that this method makes good forecasts. Further, this method makes it possible for decision makers to forecast the possible situations based on fewer observations than the SARIMA model and has the basis of pre-procedure for fuzzy time series.     

Unveiling the core technology structure for companies through patent information

Patent information provides an objective and public source to understand core technologies of companies. In this paper, a method is proposed for identifying core technology capabilities for a company in the semiconductor industry. The method is built on the patent similarity and K-means clustering algorithm. The indirect relations among the patents in the complex industry are considered in the method. In addition, the age of the patent is taken into account to avoid identifying aged core patents. The method is demonstrated by exploring the core technology capabilities that support the platform technology portfolio of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).     

有效的资源、持续的效率和科学的预测

IntroductionThe forecast of requirement for human resources is the en-terprise estimate about the number and the type of people infuture for fulfilling the fixed objects.Marshall,an Englisheconomist,thinks that actually the requirement for humanresources is a derived requirement.The formation of humancapital is the derivation and result of the formation of materialcapital requirement.The forecast for human resources is ananalysis for future situation of production,and it is also theevaluation…     

行为决策理论及决策行为实证研究方法探讨

作者对行为决策理论发展的历程及各阶段中决策行为的实证研究方法进行了梳理,发现决策行为的实证研究方法在很大程度上决定了行为决策理论发展的进程。在对决策行为一般实证研究方法及其特点进行分析之后,作者认为观察法较适用于决策行为的初步探索性研究;调查法则较适用于一般决策行为的总体状况和特征的研究;如果理论假说源于决策者某些特定的、深层次的主观动机,假设的证实或者证伪又需要大量的检验,实验法的优势比较明显。为了取得对本研究的实证效果,这里对如何将实验法应用于中国投资者决策行为研究做了一次实证性尝试,以供学术争鸣。     

基于LiDAR点云的景观空间“绿视率” 量化分析方法研究

LiDAR点云在景观空间定量研究中具有重要作用, 而目前对其运用多局限于景观空间的信息采集,为探讨如何基 于LiDAR点云数据展开景观空间的相关形态量化分析,选取 了过往研究中多局限于二维图像分析的“绿视率”指标进行具 体分析讨论,将其量化分析方法归为空间数据采集、处理、建 模、分析4个主要环节。以南京河西某住区绿地为研究案例, 选取其中4处具有典型差异的空间节点对基于LiDAR点云数据 的“绿视率”分析方法加以运用,发现该方法具有“分析高效 性”“数据全面性”“结果准确性”3个方面的突出优势及运 用价值,对后续风景园林领域研究与实践的高质量、精细化发 展具有积极作用。     

Determining the environmental effects of indirect subsidies: integrated method and application to the Netherlands

The term ‘environmentally damaging subsidies’ covers all sorts of direct and indirect subsidies with negative consequences for the environment. This article presents a method to determine the environmental impact of these subsidies. It combines a microeconomic framework with an environmental impact module. The method is particularly useful for analysing indirect subsidies. These are often hidden, and therefore, not recognized as subsidies. Use of the method will provide a basis for formulating corrective policy. The method is applied to several important subsidies in the Netherlands, in agriculture, energy and transport sectors. The results reveal large environmental effects, which deserve serious attention from policy makers. To illustrate the specific features of the method, its application to a particular subsidy, namely the exemption of excise taxes on aviation fuels, is presented in full detail.     

A fuzzy multiple criteria comparison of technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development

New materials have been recognized as key drivers for corporate profitability and growth in today's fast changing environments. To predict correctly the development of the new materials becomes a critical issue. However, little has been done in discussing the selection of technology forecasting methods for the new materials development. Accordingly, this study adopted the fuzzy AHP method to obtain professional's opinions on this issue. The efforts result in seven evaluation criteria with one, the “data validity” having the highest weight, followed by “method adaptability” and “technology predictability”. Delphi method and case study method are the two most applicable technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development.     

Are the Methods of the Net Present Value Rate and Net Annual Value Rate the Effective Scheme Comparison Methods

As for the dispute about the best-choosing method of mutually-exclusive scheme and index selection, this text proves that there is an error to make a point that using net present value rate or net annual value rate, the most scientific and effective method is chain-system differential analysis and the most short-cutting method is the method of net annual value, to select the NA V maximum scheme.