Looking across borders: A test of spatial policy interdependence using local government efficiency ratings

Spatial patterns in (local) government taxation and spending decisions have received a lot of attention. Still, the focus on taxation or expenditure levels in previous studies may be incomplete. Indeed, (rational) individuals are likely to consider the level of spending on (or taxation for) public goods provision simultaneously with how much public goods they actually receive—thus assessing the ‘price/quantity’ of government policies. Therefore, the present paper argues that incumbents may want their ‘price/quantity’ ratio to be close to that in neighbouring regions. Analysing Flemish local governments' efficiency ratings for the year 2000 (which relate total spending to the quantity of locally provided public goods), we confirm the existence of neighbourhood effects in local government policies.     

Offshoring of routine tasks and (de)industrialisation: Threat or opportunity—And for whom?

Offshoring, or overseas sourcing of routine tasks, generates efficiency gains that benefit consumers and workers with skills similar to those whose very jobs are threatened by offshoring. Essentially, the interaction between offshoring, footloose capital and agglomeration economies locks the comparative advantage of advanced nations in complex or strategic functions while labour services in ‘routine’ tasks, the coordination of which is easily codified, are provided by low-wage developing nations through the fibre optic cable. In this framework, the partial-equilibrium view that offshoring is necessarily detrimental to workers in advanced nations is misguided because the implicit counterfactual—that keeping the off-shored jobs would have no macroeconomic impact on the economy—is not warranted. In addition, inasmuch as routine tasks create few positive feedbacks, trade in tasks can be an impediment to income convergence, unlike trade in goods. In short, this paper qualifies the views that offshoring hurts workers in the North and accelerates income convergence between the North and the South.     

Classification and aggregation: An application to industrial classification in cps data

In this paper we offer a method for deciding how to aggregate a set of elementary industries. The method is then applied to the problem of estimating a wage equation that allows for industry-specific effects. Our method explicitly formalizes the trade-off between goodness-of-fit and parsimony implicit in an aggregation problem. By varying the parameter of the assumed loss function, one obtains a whole sequence of aggregation levels. Further, the resulting sequence is consistent; that is, groupings formed at one level of aggregation will never be undone when one aggregates further.     

An Implicit Törnqvist Index of Real GDP

Recently much attention has been devoted to superlative indexes in the context of the national accounts. In this paper we advocate the use of the implicit Törnqvist quantity index to measure real GDP. This index, which has been proposed by Diewert and Morrison (1986), has never received serious consideration in the literature. Yet, compared to the better-known Fisher index, the implicit Törnqvist index of real GDP has a number of advantages. Thus, it can be shown to be exact for the Translog GDP function, it allows for a complete multiplicative decomposition of nominal and real GDP, and it is consistent with state-of-the-art measures of total factor productivity that typically rely on the Törnqvist aggregation. Estimates for a sample of 26 countries are reported. We find that the Laspeyres quantity index still used by the statistical agencies of most countries tends to underestimate real growth. Over the 1960–1996 period, the cumulated shortfall was as much as 13.4% of GDP in the case of Japan.     

The reconstruction of index data in aggregative econometric models

Index data become inconsistent over time when publishing agencies change the method of aggregation. However, when they do so, they often republish some previously published data using the new method. It is shown that such overlapping data can be exploited to reconstruct the data series in an ‘optimal’ manner to provide for consistent series, using results from the theory of aggregation.     

Online hierarchical forecasting for power consumption data

This paper proposes a three-step approach to forecasting time series of electricity consumption at different levels of household aggregation. These series are linked by hierarchical constraints—global consumption is the sum of regional consumption, for example. First, benchmark forecasts are generated for all series using generalized additive models. Second, for each series, the aggregation algorithm ML-Poly, introduced by Gaillard, Stoltz, and van Erven in 2014, finds an optimal linear combination of the benchmarks. Finally, the forecasts are projected onto a coherent subspace to ensure that the final forecasts satisfy the hierarchical constraints. By minimizing a regret criterion, we show that the aggregation and projection steps improve the root mean square error of the forecasts. Our approach is tested on household electricity consumption data; experimental results suggest that successive aggregation and projection steps improve the benchmark forecasts at different levels of household aggregation.     

“Distribution-free” estimates of efficiency in the U.S. banking industry and tests of the standard distributional assumptions

Studies of efficiency in banking and elsewhere often impose arbitrary assumptions on the distributions of efficiency and random error in order to separate one from the other. In this study, we impose much less structure on these distributions and only assume that efficiencies are stable over time while random error tends to average out. We are able to do so by estimating firm-specific effects on costs using panel data sets of over 28,000 observations on U.S. banks from 1980 to 1989. We find results similar to the literature—X-efficiencies or managerial differences in efficiency are important in banking, while scale-efficiency differences are not. However, we also find that the distributional assumptions usually imposed in the literature are not very consistent with these data.     

Measuring technical and scale inefficiencies in the beer industry: Nonparametric and parametric evidence

Two alternative approaches of efficiency measurement, nonparametric and statistical, are employed to calculate three types of efficiency indexes for the U.S. beer industry over the period 1950–1986. The results indicate that the beer industry was operating at a high level of pure technical efficiency over that period. The mean value of this efficiency measure is 93.7 percent based on the nonparametric approach and 87.5 percent based on the statistical approach. The two approaches yield dissimilar values and sources for overall technical inefficiency. The overall technical efficiency index computed under the nonparametric approach stands at 91.10 percent and the observed inefficiency is found to be more due to pure technical inefficiency than to scale inefficiency. Using the statistical approach, the beer industry is found to be less overall technically efficient (68.42 percent) than indicated by the nonparametric methodology and the observed inefficiency is found to be primarily contributed to by scale inefficiency.     

A disaster response model driven by spatial–temporal forecasts

In this research, we propose a disaster response model combining preparedness and responsiveness strategies. The selective response depends on the level of accuracy that our forecasting models can achieve. In order to decide the right geographical space and time window of response, forecasts are prepared and assessed through a spatial–temporal aggregation framework, until we find the optimum level of aggregation. The research considers major earthquake data for the period 1985–2014. Building on the produced forecasts, we develop accordingly a disaster response model. The model is dynamic in nature, as it is updated every time a new event is added in the database. Any forecasting model can be optimized though the proposed spatial–temporal forecasting framework, and as such our results can be easily generalized. This is true for other forecasting methods and in other disaster response contexts.     

投入产出表、社会核算矩阵的更新方法研究

本文将现有的众多矩阵更新技术纳入约束最优化的数学建模框架中,并统一进行了若干扩展,特别地,在约束条件存在冲突时通过引入误差精度调整项,使得原本不可行的矩阵更新问题能够求解,以扩大其适用范围。然后使用中国2002年和2007年的投入产出表对6种扩展修正后的矩阵更新方法进行了实证比较,结果显示无论是基于流量还是基于系数形式,或是对矩阵进行聚合处理,更新矩阵时ERAS的表现始终是最优的,ENSD其次,两者差距较小;而EAD方法表现较差。     

Channels of R&D spillovers: An empirical investigation of Swiss firms

Research and development (R&D) spillovers are, potentially, a major source of endogenous growth in various recent ‘new growth theory’ models. According to these models, firms engage in R&D in order to seek rents. Public aspects of this R&D then spill over to other firms, thereby creating increasing returns relating to scale and long-term growth. The actual mechanisms by which spillovers occur has, however, not been systematically studied. In order to provide empirical facts on this issue the paper investigates the effectiveness of various channels of R&D spillovers. The analysis is based on a survey conducted among 358 Swiss R&D executives representing 127 different lines of business, mainly in the manufacturing sector. The results can be summarized as follows. First, undertaking independent R&D was perceived by the R&D executives questioned as the most effective channel of R&D spillovers at the intra-industry level. This was followed by reverse engineering for product innovations and the utilization of publications and information from technical meetings for process innovations. Second, learning methods that rely on interpersonal communication were judged as moderately effective in the following order of importance: (i) publications and technical meetings; (ii) conversations with employees from innovating firms; and (iii) hiring away employees from innovating firms. The last method, especially, is not valued as effective in the Swiss context. Third, learning methods related to the patent system—licensing technology and patent disclosures in the patent office—were seen as moderately effective or not effective at all. Fourth, the effectiveness of the various channels of R&D spillovers varies from one industry to another. Fifth, the various channels of R&D spillovers can be reduced to subgroups, so that patterns of learning of competitive technology can be established.     

Marginal Rates and Elasticities of Substitution with Additive Models in DEA

Marginal rates and elasticities of substitution are derived from the optimal slack values obtained from modified versions of additive DEA models. Projection formulas are used to ensure that all points are on the efficient frontier as required for conformance with assumptions in micro-economics. The models used differ from standard versions in that slack values are allowed to be negative as well as positive in these additive models. This makes movement possible on efficiency frontiers, where improvement in some inputs or outputs requires worsening other inputs or outputs. A new definition is therefore introduced in which efficiency is attained only if the value of the worsenings is exactly offset by the value of the improvements. This includes, but is not restricted to, the case in which all slacks must be zero for full attainment of efficiency—as in standard versions of additive models.     

Non-parametric, unconditional quantile estimation for efficiency analysis with an application to Federal Reserve check processing operations

This paper examines the technical efficiency of US Federal Reserve check processing offices over 1980–2003. We extend results from Park et al. [Park, B., Simar, L., Weiner, C., 2000. FDH efficiency scores from a stochastic point of view. Econometric Theory 16, 855–877] and Daouia and Simar [Daouia, A., Simar, L., 2007. Nonparametric efficiency analysis: a multivariate conditional quantile approach. Journal of Econometrics 140, 375–400] to develop an unconditional, hyperbolic, α-quantile estimator of efficiency. Our new estimator is fully non-parametric and robust with respect to outliers; when used to estimate distance to quantiles lying close to the full frontier, it is strongly consistent and converges at rate root-n, thus avoiding the curse of dimensionality that plagues data envelopment analysis (DEA) estimators. Our methods could be used by policymakers to compare inefficiency levels across offices or by managers of individual offices to identify peer offices.     

Technological inefficiency indexes: a binary taxonomy and a generic theorem

Over the years following Debreu’s (1951) seminal formulation of a “coefficient of resource utilization”, a large number of indexes of technological inefficiency have been specified and a spate of papers has examined the properties satisfied by these indexes. This paper approaches the subject more synthetically, presenting generic results on classes of indexes and their properties. In particular, we consider a broad class of indexes containing almost all known indexes and a partition of this class into two subsets, slacks-based indexes and path-based indexes. Slacks-based indexes are expressed in terms of additive or multiplicative slacks for all inputs and outputs, and particular indexes are generated by specifying the form of aggregation over the coordinate-wise slacks. Path-based indexes are expressed in terms of a common contraction/expansion factor, and particular indexes are generated by specifying the form of the path to the frontier of the technology. Owing to an impossibility result in one of our earlier papers, we know that the set of all inefficiency indexes can be partitioned into three subsets: those that satisfy continuity (in quantities and technologies) and violate indication (equal to some specified value if and only if the quantity vector is efficient), those that satisfy indication and violate continuity, and those that satisfy neither. We prove two generic theorems establishing the equivalence of these two partitions: all slacks-based indexes satisfy indication and hence violate continuity, and all path-based indexes satisfy continuity and hence violate indication. We also discuss the few indexes that do not belong to either of these two sets. Our hope is that these results will help guide decisions about specification of the form of efficiency indexes used in empirical analysis.     

Indirect productivity measurement

Caves, Christensen and Diewert [1982a] showed that the Törnqvist productivity index is superlative in a considerably more general sense than had been previously believed. We examine the allocative and technical efficiency hypotheses on which their finding rests. We show that the allocative efficiency hypothesis can be modified, which makes the Törnqvist index superlative in a wider sense than even Caves, Christensen and Diewert showed, since it is consistent with a type of allocative efficiency other than the standard cost minimization and revenue maximization hypotheses considered by Caves, Christensen and Diewert. We also show that if the technical efficiency hypothesis is relaxed, the CCD result may no longer hold, and the distance functions that form the basis of the Malmquist productivity indexes, and hence of the Törnqvist productivity index, must be calculated. We then show how to calculate the underlying distance functions, and we argue that there are real advantages to doing so.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through N.R. Adam.     

Business formation — a network approach

This article suggests that the key to entrepreneurial success is to be found in the ability to develop and maintain a personal network. In elaborating this proposition I regard the environment of the business venture as “enacted”. The inexperienced new entrepreneur needs support to create a personal network and to manage the enacted environment. The concept of the “organizing context”, defined as a clustered sociocentric network, is introduced to provide a tool with which the entrepreneur can deal more efficiently with the different subprocesses that create his or her reality. The approach supplies a framework within which various forms of entrepreneurship — indigenous, corporate, etc. — can be compared and analysed beyond their institutional differences. The interaction between various forms of entrepreneurship and organizing contexts is empirically illustrated from case studies.     

The determinants of residential succession

This study attempts to measure residential succession, or the succession of neighborhoods from high- to low-income occupancy, and to relate its occurrence to explanatory variables suggested by several theories. The good performance of variables measuring the size of dwelling units and the poorer performance of variables designed to capture effects of income levels in adjacent neighborhoods suggest that Muth's “Vintage Model” explains the process better, at the chosen level of aggregation, than does the Bailey boundary externality model.     

The effect of zoning on the size of metropolitan areas

The paper develops a two-sector urban model of center city and suburbs in which the effect of suburban large lot zoning on metropolitan area size can be determined. The model shows that zoning makes all metropolitan area residents—center city and suburban—worse off in their role as renters. However, zoning can cause metropolitan area size to either increase or decrease, depending on specified parameter values. The model also shows that zoning can cause an increase or decrease in overall metropolitan area land value. Finally, the question of who gains and who loses from zoning is discussed.     

Why elementary price index number formulas differ: Evidence on price dispersion

Most countries use either the Dutot or Jevons index number formula for the compilation of their consumer price index at the elementary level of aggregation. The difference between the formulas is shown to be accounted for by changes in price dispersion. In turn, some of this difference is shown to be explained by product heterogeneity. Scanner data on television sets (TVs) are used to calculate Dutot and Jevons indexes. The difference between them is successfully explained in terms of changes in price dispersion and much reduced using an hedonic, heterogeneity-controlled Dutot index.     

Market alternative to state activism in restoring the capitalist economy

The theory of economic transition is concerned less with the end product of building a capitalist economy than with intermediate solutions and the appropriate pace of institutional change. This article advances theoretical arguments on the advantages of a self-grown, evolutionary restoration of the capitalist economy in Eastern Europe or any country abandoning the socialist experiment.The article develops the point that of the two basic methods of setting up an economic order—the state or a market-type mechanism—only the latter can assure the emergence of a genuine, complete market. Further, it suggests that markets with self-interested individual actors at the center are not only superior to states in the allocation of scarce resources, be they economic or political, but are also the best vehicle for institution building.