WHY THE EFFICIENT MARKET OFFERS HOPE TO ACTIVE MANAGEMENT*

This article provides an interesting resolution of the paradox at the heart of efficient markets theory: namely, in financial markets that appear to be becoming ever more efficient, with fewer and fewer fund managers able to beat the S&P 500, why do investors engage in active trading? Why not index? The key to the author's defense of active management lies in its critique of economists' concept of “equilibrium prices.”     

SPECULATION AND THE MARKET FOR RECOMMENDATIONS

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the theoretical value of information in a speculative securities market. A model of speculative equilibrium is developed in a market where an independent profit-seeking advisor sells information in the form of buy and sell recommendations. These recommendations and the record of the advisor determine traders' speculative commitments, which take explicit account of informational risk. The model leads to a complete specification of the speculative equilibrium which includes stock prices as well as the price that the advisor can charge for providing recommendations.     

市场有效理论及我国股票市场有效性的实证检验

我国股票市场近年来出现的一系列事件引发了人们的深刻思考,而传统的资本市场理论已无法圆满地解释我国股票市场现有的发展程度、发展阶段及有效性等问题.为此,本文提出了市场有效性理论.利用该理论,作者通过抽样统计,对我国股票市场的有效性进行了实证分析.本文的重点在于研究我国股票市场的发展层次即其有效性层次.首先通过随机游程和股价自回归检验方法得出了我国股票市场处于弱型有效的结论,然后针对目前关于有效性层次方面的争论,用事件研究法阐述了如下观点:我国股票市场目前正处于弱型有效市场层次,但并不具有半强型有效市场的特点.     

STRATEGIC RULES ON SPECULATION IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

In this article we specify the conditions for profitable speculaion in the foreign exchange market with spot and forward contracts. We derive the unique strategic rules from the initial two‐choice situations in a given environment. Finally, in a more complex structure involving covered arbitrage, speculative profits are computed with iterative plays. JEL classification: F310     

利率期限结构理论在我国证券市场的实证分析

本文利用利率期限结构理论,通过对中国证券市场的实证研究,分析我国的利率传导机制和其运行效率。利率期限结构事实上承担着整个社会资源配置的参照系,其可以引导存贷款利率以及中央银行存款准备金利率的变动,形成一条科学合理的收益率曲线。目前中央银行主要通过公开市场操作来影响货币市场利率。作者使用当前金融市场的资料验证不同期限利率水平之间存在一种长期均衡关系,我国收益率曲线的变动基本上是服从流动性偏好理论;同时,随着市场的发展,各类证券收益率之间的传导机制也在不断的完善。因此,中央银行对利率的市场化引导和调控机制已经初步具备,但该机制还有待于进一步的完善。     

IS THE TOKYO SPOT FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET CONSISTENT WITH THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS?

Recent Studies in the area of foreign exchange market efficiency have employed time series analysis to test for the absence of long-run equilibrium or cointegration relationships among the exchange rates for the major currencies. Cointegration directly violates the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in a speculative efficient market (Granger, 1986). In this study, we address the efficiency of the Tokyo spot foreign exchange market while updating the test procedures developed by Phillips and Ouliaris (1990), Johansen and Juselius (1990) and Johansen (1991). Cointegration is found to be absent, showing that the Tokyo spot market is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.