国外自然决策理论研究述评

本文回顾了国外自然决策理论的产生、发展和特点，简要介绍了自然决策理论中比较有影响的RPD模型，并分析了自然决策理论在应对不确定性、团队决策、知识管理等方面的应用。最后，总结了自然决策理论遇到的一些问题及其在我国的发展前景。     

A test of a unitary model on labour supply using the information of household decision-making systems

This article tests whether a unitary model is consistent with household behaviour using the data of two-earner couples. It focuses on the unitary model assuming that all family members have the same utility function. The analysis investigates the difference in a husband's and wife's labour supply between the household that determines the wife to be the main decision-maker and the household that selects a different decision-making system under the control of individual and household characteristics. The estimation employs a treatment effects model to consider the selectivity bias caused by unmeasured characteristics. Results show that the household with the wife as the main decision-maker increases the husband's working hours by 15% and decreases the wife's working hours by 59%, compared to the household that selects a different decision-making system. This implies that the unitary model is rejected. Additionally, the husband's wage rate, the husband's and wife's health status, and their gambling addiction determine the household decision-making system such as the variables that determine the reservation utility of not being married. The effect of the decision-making system on the labour supply and that of the determinant factors on the decision-making system are consistent with the implications obtained from Nash bargaining models and collective models.     

Functions of innovation systems: A new approach for analysing technological change

The central idea of this paper is that innovation systems are a very important determinant of technological change. We describe that the emergence of a new innovation system and changes in existing innovation systems co-evolve with the process of technological change. Therefore, it is necessary to create more insight in the dynamics of innovation systems. Traditional methods of innovation system analysis that mainly focus on the structure of innovation systems have proven to be insufficient. Therefore, we propose a framework that focuses on a number of processes that are highly important for well performing innovation systems. These processes are labeled as ‘functions of innovation systems’. After explaining this framework and embedding it in existing literature, we propose a method for systematically mapping those processes taking place in innovation systems and resulting in technological change. This method can be characterized as a process analysis or history event analysis. Clarifying examples are taken from the empirical field of Sustainable Technology Development.     

The failure of foresight in crisis management: A secondary analysis of the Mari disaster

Foresight the ability to plan and think systematically about future scenarios in order to inform decision-making in the present has been applied extensively by corporations and governments alike in crisis management. Foresight can be complicated because dispersed groups have diverse, non-overlapping pieces of information that affects an organization's ability to detect, mitigate, and recover from failures. This paper explores the failure of foresight in crisis management by drawing on data on events that preceded and followed the Mari disaster in a naval base in Cyprus in July 2011, where a large explosion killed 13 people and injured 62 others, while completely destroying the major power plant of the island. The paper examines how foresight into crisis management decisions was compromised because of a conscious effort by high ranking decision-makers to minimize emergent danger and avoid responsibility for the crisis, in joint with red tape, bureaucracy, and poor coordination and information flows. The paper explores the notion of operational and political responsibility of individual decision-makers and discusses an alternative approach to foresight in crisis management, one that is built on multiple layers of decision-making.     

The role of evaluation in SMMEs’ strategic decision-making on new technology adoption

ABSTRACT

The complex nature of small business operations has led to adopting IT as a tool to enhance the productivity, efficiency and growth of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprise (SMMEs). Despite the increased spend on IT, many SMMEs do not understand the importance of IT investment evaluation, which adversely impacts their technology and decision-making ability to realise benefits. The study explores the role evaluation plays in SMMEs’ decision-making to adopt the technology, and the ability to evaluate technology potentials thereof. Case studies were conducted, data collected analysed using the thematic analysis, with hermeneutics employed to derive deeper and richer meanings from the findings. SMMEs often base their decision to adopt the technology on speculative and empirical knowledge from personal judgement, communication preferences and individual experiences. Implications of TE potential may lead to the adoption of inappropriate or non-adoption of the technology, with adverse effects on business sustainability.     

精益生产对成本管理的影响

精益生产是一种以最大限度地减少企业生产所占用的资源、降低企业管理和运营成本为主要目的的生产方式,是众多企业追逐的经营管理理念。基于此,从精益生产理论体系入手,分析了传统成本管理的缺陷,进而对精益生产模式下的成本管理框架进行探讨。     

中国企业社会责任管理系统之协同思考

中国企业在社会责任管理方面存在着缺乏组织保障、目标不明确、管理体系不规范等诸多问题,面对“开放、责任、和谐、挑战”的时代背景和国内企业的社会责任管理现实,加强社会责任管理就成为企业管理的一项重大课题。     

A complex systems methodology to transition management

There is a general sense of urgency that major technological transitions are required for sustainable development. Such transitions are best perceived as involving multiple transition steps along a transition path. Due to the path dependent and irreversible nature of innovation in complex technologies, an initial transition step along some preferred path may cut off paths that later may turn out to be more desirable. For these reasons, initial transition steps should allow for future flexibility, where we define flexibility as robustness regarding changing evidence and changing preferences. We propose a technology assessment methodology based on rugged fitness landscapes, which identifies the flexibility of initial transition steps in complex technologies. We illustrate our methodology by an empirical application to 2,646 possible future car systems.

日美企业组织管理模式对中国企业的启发

分析了日本企业和美国企业的组织管理模式特点。其中,重点探讨了日本的终身雇佣、年功序列和企业内工会对日本企业战后崛起的重要作用;研究了进入20世纪90年代后美国企业组织管理职能从一种维持和辅助型的管理职能上升为一种具有重要战略意义的管理职能,并且成为许多美国企业赖以赢得竞争优势的重要工具。最后,对中国企业的组织管理特点进行了归纳分析,对中国的企业组织管理进行了展望。     

Explicating the market dimension in the study of digital innovation: a management framework for digital innovation

Digital innovation is gaining momentum among academics and business practitioners. Featuring increasingly cross-industry and multi-actor innovation processes, digital innovation reveals the inherent technology bias in the dominant perspectives on innovation. This study aims to transfer the focus from technology-centred ideas of digital innovation to a more balanced concept in which digital innovation is conceptualised as a combination of multiple needs and solutions linked to various actors and their behaviours. The study builds on a longitudinal case study. The article contributes by providing a partial response to the explicit calls for strategic frameworks that capture the process of digital innovation. Furthermore, the article explicates the market dimension of digital innovation and extends the analysis of the market dimension from a limited view of customer information and user knowledge to further include needs, actions, and behaviours of market actors directly or indirectly using, complementing, or substituting the digital innovation and innovation process.     

Turnover in top management and de-escalation of commitment

We explore how de-escalation of commitment is linked to top management turnover and economic changes at the firm. Escalation of commitment occurs when managers continue investment in a project after receiving negative information. A major determinant of escalation is the personal responsibility effect in that managers are more likely to escalate commitment to a failing project if they were responsible for the original investments. Prior studies suggest that a change in top management facilitates de-escalation of commitment as incoming managers who do not have such commitment are able to stop investments that are discovered to be failing. Our empirical analysis based on a sample of over 3,300 firms for the period from 1992 to 2016 demonstrates the link between specific top management turnover types and economic changes at the firm consistent with the de-escalation of commitment.     

实施流程管理 提升运营质量

流程管理是以规范化地构造端到端的卓越业务流程为中心,以持续地提高组织业务绩效为目的的系统化方法,其核心是加强协作、提高效率,实施步骤和关键因素是流程管理企业流程管理的难点。某置业集团实施流程管理,经历建立标准、分类建模、评估上线、持续改进4个步骤,实现提高运营质量的目的,而目标驱动、完整适用、共同参与、持续优化和信息化支撑成为其关键因素。     

设计师的人力资源管理

在当前市场竞争日益激烈的情况下,设计师的人力资源管理已成为设计管理领域的一个重要范畴。设计师设计创意的产生和创造力的应用对企业长远发展具有举足轻重的作用,企业组织内设计的创造性行为如果能有效加以激发、管理和整合,将有助于整体组织创造力的提升,进而提高企业竞争力。因此,设计师的人力资源管理就成为各大企业日益重视的一个管理方向。因此,立足于设计管理的基本构架,对设计师的人力资源的合理配置进行探讨,以期为相关企业提供一定的理论指导。     

程序正义视阈中中国行政决策听证制度建设

行政决策听证作为一种法律程序,应当符合程序正义的基本要求。中国现阶段行政决策听证制度缺乏统一的听证规则;听证参与人缺少应有的法理属性;听证的抗辩性不强;缺乏对听证代表意见的回应和救济机制等。完善中国行政决策听证制度,应当强化程序观念,提高全体公民的听证权意识;制定统一的听证规则;完善听证主持人制度和代表遴选制度;建立对听证意见的回应与救济机制。     

An integrated decision-support approach in prioritizing risks of non-indigenous species in the face of high uncertainty

When evaluating the risks of future invasions, we often have sparse information on the likelihood that a species will arrive, establish and spread in a new environment, and on the potential impacts should this occur. Conventional risk assessment, therefore, is limited in providing guidance in managing the risk of non-indigenous species (NIS). However, risk management decisions must be made facing these uncertainties to avoid high and irreversible impacts.We develop an integrated ecological economic modeling and deliberative multi-criteria evaluation (DMCE) approach to support group decision-making in risk prioritization, using an example of ten NIS that could potentially impact Australian plant industries. This innovative approach seeks to combine the advantages of dynamic modeling with the benefits of DMCE in assessing and communicating uncertainty. The model unveils the complexity of the socio-ecological system of biological invasion, with a scenario analysis designed to interactively communicate scientific uncertainty to decision-makers. The DMCE provides a structured approach to identifying stakeholders' key concerns in addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions of NIS risk explicitly. Functioning as a platform for risk communication, the DMCE also offers an opportunity for diverse views to enter the decision-making process and for the negotiation of consensus consensuses.     

Customer preferences versus managerial decision-making in open innovation communities: the case of Starbucks

Customers can participate in open innovation communities posting innovation ideas, which in turn can receive comments and votes from the rest of the community, highlighting user preferences. However, the final decision about implementing innovations corresponds to the company. This paper is focused on the customers' activity in open innovation communities. The aim is to identify the main topics of customers' interests in order to compare these topics with managerial decision-making. The results obtained reveal first that both votes and comments can be used to predict user preferences; and second, that customers tend to promote those innovations by reporting more comfort and benefits. In contrast, managerial decisions are more focused on the distinctive features associated with the brand image.     

The global dimension to fiscal sustainability

This paper provides a new perspective of fiscal sustainability and financial globalization in emerging and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of global capital market shocks for fiscal sustainability, a relationship which has hitherto been ignored in the empirical literature. Using a factor model we demonstrate that the relationship between deficit and debt is conditional upon a global factor and we suggest that this global factor is related to world-wide liquidity. We also demonstrate that this acts as a constraint on emerging market economies’ fiscal policy.     

Reviews of the research on water resources management system at home and abroad

The reform of the system of water resource management abroad has started since the 50s of last century, it has left us a lot of experiences in many aspects with the innovation of system, such as the legal environment in water resources, water rights, water market theory, and the ＂participation＂ management of water resources, these experiences has been promoted in more than 40 developing countries. Based on analyzing the theory and experiences of water resources management both at home and abroad, especially the theory and experiences of agricultural water resources management, this paper puts forward the main problems waiting for further investigation in China＇s water resources management and provides some reference and inspiration for the innovation of the system of water resource management in China.     

《管理信息系统》课程的实验教学探索

本文根据《管理信息系统》课程的性质及实验教学的要求，分析该课程实验教学的内容与组织，并针对实验教学的现状提出几点建议。