对外贸易:顺差增长 前景看好

2003年，在世界经济缓慢增长、日本经济脱离低谷、在期待与不安中缓慢复苏的背景下，其拉动日本经济复苏的主要动因的出口持续增加，进出口均创历史新高，贸易盈余递增。这主要得力于亚洲特别是中国经济的支撑，中国首次成为日本最大的山口贸易国。预计2004年日本对外贸易仍将有所增长，但也不排除国内外不确定因素的影响。     

析中国大市场在日本经济复苏中的作用

日本对外贸易一直在其经济周期的复苏中发挥了拉动作用。 2 0 0 2年以来 ,日本经济复苏呈外需主导型 ,出口增加则是这次复苏的牵引车。在出口地区结构中 ,日本对中国的出口增长最快、贡献度最大 ,在日本被称为“中国特需”现象。进入 2 1世纪以来 ,在美国对日本经济仍保持重要影响的同时 ,中国对日本经济的影响显著增强。     

日本经济复苏能否顺利闯关

20世纪90年代被认为是日本经济失去的10年，泡沫破灭后，经济陷入了长期萧条．期间虽有过几次不同程度的反弹，但始终未能走出低谷，驶入健康发展的轨道。2003年年初以来，由于对外出口的增加和国内居民消费与企业投资的增长，日本经济叉一次显出复苏迹象。然而，就当前形势看，妨碍经济复苏的不确定因素依然很多。经济的双重结构、巨额不良债权和日元汇率的不稳定仍是日本经济保持持续增长的拦路虎，日本经济若要保持持续的、全面的、健康的增长就必须跨过这三大关。     

亚洲经济复苏的三个条件

【日本《钻石》周刊6月13日】由于世界经济不景气，亚洲经济已经不可能保持“无通胀增长”。亚洲再次实现出口和投资的良性循环、重现亚洲金融危机之后的“V”型复苏的条件是什么？     

扩大内需的重要途径：加快城市化的发展

扩大内需是目前我国加快经济复苏,保持经济稳定持续增长的主要手段。很多人认为扩大内需的重点在于扩大农村广大的消费市场,但是由于历史原因使得农村市场难以承担对扩大内需的拉动作用。城市化的发展有利于提高居民的消费能力、调整产业结构、缓解产能过剩和第三产业的发展。因此,城市化的发展是扩大内需、拉动经济增长的重要途径。     

日元升值历史教训

第二次世界大战后，作为战败国的日本在相当长的一段时间内将利率维持在360日元兑1美元的固定汇率上，在经历了经济复兴期（1949-1954年）后，日本确立了“追上并超过欧美”的经济目标，采用“出口拉动经济增长”的战术，终于实现了平均每年以10%增长的经济奇迹（1955-1973年）。与此同时，日本在这期间的批发物价也成功地保持在年平均上涨率为1%，这也引起了海外的惊讶。     

扩大内需的重要途径:加快城市化的发展

扩大内需是目前我国加快经济复苏,保持经济稳定持续增长的主要手段.很多人认为扩大内需的重点在于扩大农村广大的消费市场,但是由于历史原因使得农村市场难以承担对扩大内需的拉动作用.城市化的发展有利于提高居民的消费能力、调整产业结构、缓解产能过剩和第三产业的发展.因此,城市化的发展是扩大内需、拉动经济增长的重要途径.     

全球经济复苏的基础是中国等改变增长模式

【美国《新闻周刊》8月14日】我们应当牢记前面的崩溃是全球性的，以免被美国经济“复苏”搞得晕头转向。除非复苏也是全球性的，否则不可能成功。会是全球性的吗？世界再也不能依赖挥金如土的美国人支撑经济增长了。他们已经负债累累，房产和股票亏损了数万亿美元才清醒过来。如果“美国购买”找不到替代，任何全球复苏都将是脆弱的，因为美国需要靠出口拉动增长，而其他国家则必须弥补丧失了的对美销售。     

复苏终成真 增速仍有限

日本经济现在已经复苏，但在可预见的未来。人们不应期待日本经济会像泡沫破裂前的遥远年代那样高速增长。[编者按]     

2003年广州经济展望

(1)美国对世界经济的影响加深欧洲、日本及亚洲经济的复苏无—例外都受到美国经济复苏拉动的影响，亚太地区经济与美国经济也息息相关。美元汇率、美国股市、美国对伊战争等一系列不确定因素的任何变化和波动，都会对国际经济环境产生极大的影响。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

For Better or for Worse? Local Impacts of the Decentralization of Indonesia’s Forest Sector

This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions.     

以资本管理为核心的银行治理综合评价指标研究

商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上,尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能,资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标,以求真实反映银行经营的成果,有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系,从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。     

Markteintrittstiming von Telekommunikationsdiensteanbietern

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte (AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten. In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen, erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.      

利用膜技术回收利用碱性废水研究进展

回顾了利用膜分离技术处理碱性废水的工艺与综合利用技术所取得的丰硕成果，总结了各种治理方法的特点、适用性及发展方向。     

Taxing Times in Indonesia: The Challenge of Restoring Competitiveness and the Search for Fiscal Space

Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.