The Rise (and Fall) of the Arena Football League

After 22 seasons of competition, the Arena Football League (AFL) suspended operations in 2009. Play resumed in 2010, but attendance has declined dramatically. We examine the determinants of the demand for tickets to AFL games using data from the league’s first incarnation from 1987 to 2008; we find that the honeymoon effect for first-generation AFL teams was very short. Teams lost about 1,700 fans per game on average in their second year of operation, a sizeable loss given league average of 11,000 fans. Our results also suggest that Major League Baseball (MLB) serves as a direct competitor to the AFL, and this offers insights into why the AFL has struggled in its second incarnation (2010–2012).     

U.S. professional football game-day attendance

This paper uses Tobit analysis to estimate a model which explains game-day attendance at professional football games in the U.S. Several potential determinants of attendance are accounted for in the model. The data used in the analysis pertain to 392 regular season games played during the 1986 and 1987 National Football League seasons. The estimation results suggest that attendance is greater when the opposing teams—particularly, the home team—are of higher quality. There is also evidence that games expected to be close in score are more heavily attended than those that are not. Rainy conditions reduce fan turnout, although warmer temperatures lessen the negative effect of precipitation. Higher ticket prices lead to lower attendance, and fans are apparently indifferent to whether games are played either indoors or outdoors.     

The demand for minor league baseball

Conclusions Overall our model explains 80 percent of the variation in attendance at minor league baseball games for 27 teams over the 1973–77 seasons. This is a remarkable proportion of the variance to be explained by a pooled cross-section-time-series model with 86 observations. Demmert's model explained 58 percent of the variation in per capita attendance in major league baseball over the 1951–69 period and Noll's model explained 69 percent of the variation in absolute attendance at major league baseball games during 1970–71. The F-ratio indicates that our overall model is statistically significant.Our empirical estimation of the demand for minor league baseball attendance supports the general hypotheses one derives from the theory of consumer demand. As expected, the quantity demanded is negatively related to price; the elasticity of demand is less than one. Per capita income has little effect on attendance, but the quality and excitement of play seem to be important to fans. Surprisingly, winning has no effect on attendance. Promotional efforts appear to be effective in generating attendance, but paid advertising seems to be wholly ineffective.The authors received helpful comments on an earlier draft from Al Finegan, Robert Hays, Ira Horowitz, Larry Nelson and an anonymous referee. A less technical report on the subject of this article has been published inBusiness (January–February, 1980) by the same authors.     

How Do Retailers Price Beer During Periods of Peak Demand? Evidence from Game Weeks of the German Bundesliga

This article considers retail beer pricing during game weeks of the German Bundesliga. German consumers exhibit a high degree of brand‐loyalty in their preference for regionally crafted beers, and we exploit the regional brand‐loyalty of German beer consumers to identify brand‐level demand shocks for beers preferred by the home team's fans and visiting team's fans during Bundesliga game weeks. We find retailer price adjustments at the category level mask a considerably more nuanced pricing behavior at the brand level. Retailers in regions hosting Bundesliga games significantly increase beer prices at the category level during game weeks; however, at the brand level, we find retailers selectively discount prices on the home team's sponsored beers and systematically raise prices on the visiting team's sponsored beers. Our findings are consistent with a “tourist–natives” model of retail pricing during periods of increased demand in the German beer market.     

The Impact of Fantasy Football Participation on NFL Attendance

The fantasy sports industry, primarily led by fantasy football, has reportedly grown to 18 million unique players generating over $2 billion dollars annually according to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association. Anecdotal evidence suggests that this impressive growth is also generating increased interest for the sports on which the games are based. We use survey data from the ESPN Sports Poll to determine whether fantasy football participation increases NFL game attendance. The results suggest that fantasy football participants are not only more likely to attend at least one game per year, but also that they attend between 0.22 and 0.57 more games per season.     

Drug Demand – Initiation, Continuation and Quitting

Summary As illicit drug use inflicts considerable harm on users, non-using persons and society, there is an urgent need to better understand demand. Unlawfulness and addictiveness separate the consumption of narcotic drugs from the consumption of other commodities. This paper reviews economic approaches to the task of analysing drug consumption and discusses some recent contributions to the field. We find it useful to apply a threefold division to a user’s career: the initiation phase, the continuation phase and the quitting phase. First, however, we present an analysis of drug injectors’ heroin demand based on a large set of personal interviews (n = 2882) and illustrate some of the problems affecting empirical studies in this field. An estimated price elasticity of −0.77 and income elasticity of 0.56 suggest a high level of responsiveness to economic incentives among heavy drug users.     

Lobbying paradox of strategic export policy in a differentiated duopoly

This paper presents an analysis of lobbying based on imperfect competition by using three-stage game. It seeks to explain why lobbying efforts might be influenced by a home government’s viewpoint. Endogenously determined lobbying may distort the outcomes of strategic export policy, so that the results would differ from that generated by exogenously set lobbying. The lobbying paradox results in the domestic firm being worse off than if it could credibly commit to not engage in lobbying. Moreover, in the presence of foreign firm lobbying, the desired tax level is as the same as that of the benchmark case without lobbying.     

Market Share and Price in Dutch Home Care: Market Power or Quality?

The paper uses unique data on contracts concluded by providers of home care to evaluate the effect of provider market power on prices of home care services in the Netherlands. Since, at least in some regions, one or two providers dominate the market, there are concerns about the effect of providers’ market power on the pricing of home care services. Using data on contracted prices and quantities for 2004–2006, we find that providers with a larger market share are able to contract at a higher price. The effect remains after controlling for quality.     

It is Time for National Action to Reach the Lisbon Goals

Summary During the second half of 2004, the Netherlands held the Presidency of the European Union. One of the conferences during the Presidency was titled ‘More people at work: Policies to activate Europe’s labour potential’. It was organised on October 25 and 26, 2004 at the Beurs van Berlage in Amsterdam. The conference focused on four particular areas: the reconciliation of work and family life, activating social security systems, mobility and training. As a starting point for the discussions during the conference, academics who are experts in the specific policy areas were asked to write a paper. In this special edition of ‘De economist’ you will find a presentation of three of their papers. In my contribution I will explain why I have put the focus of this conference on increasing labour supply and more in particular why these four themes have been chosen as relevant for Member States and the Union. As time has not stopped after the Netherlands’ Presidency I will also take this opportunity to show that the conclusions of the conference have become an integrated part of the revitalised Lisbon strategy.     

China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries

We analyze the impact of China’s growth on the exports of other Asian countries, distinguishing China’s demand for imports from its penetration of export markets. We account for the endogeneity of Chinese exports by applying instrumental variables in a gravity model with country-pair fixed-effects. We find that China’s crowding-out effect is felt mainly in markets for consumer goods and hence by less-developed Asian countries, not in markets for capital goods or by the more advanced Asian economies. Meanwhile, China has been sucking in imports from its Asian neighbors, but this effect is mainly felt in markets for capital goods. Hence, more and less developed Asian countries are being affected very differently by China’s rise. JEL no. E5, F4     

Determinants of Attendance in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League: Role of Winning,Scoring, and Fighting

Attendance in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League was studied for the 2009 to 2010 season. This junior league, part of the Canadian Hockey League system, serves as a development league for teenage players who attempt to parlay their participation in this league into a professional career. Fan demand for this level of hockey is found to be sensitive to the success of the home team and to exhibit normal consumer responses to weekday and monthly effects with weekends being more popular and attendance increasing throughout the season toward the playoffs. On-ice factors such as scoring, a proxy for excitement, and fighting are not shown to have a significant effect on attendance.     

Sectoral labor employment in a Caribbean economy: The case of Barbados

This study examines the demand for labor in five major sectors of the Caribbean economy of Barbados. While the demand for labor function in the nontradable sectors appears well-defined in terms of real wages and real aggregate output, the inclusion of a variable to capture the effects of capital-deepening appears important to the specification of labor demand in the tradable sectors—agriculture and manufacturing. Low estimates of real wage elasticities and real output elasticities in the vicinity of unity suggest that employers in the major sectors are more likely to alter their demand for labor based on expectations of the economy’s performance than in response to labor cost factors denominated in producer prices.     

Tariff reduction via inflation : U. S. specific tariffs 1972–1979

Zusammenfassung Zollabbau mittels Inflation: Die spezifischen Z?lle der Vereinigten Staaten 1972–1979. -Die spezifischen Z?lle der Vereinigten Staaten — und zwar sowohl die reinen spezifischen Z?lle als auch deren Anteil in zusammengesetzten Z?llen -wurden zwischen 1972 und 1979 nominal festgesetzt. Das bedeutet, da\ die amerikanische Inflation die reale Protektion, die in diesen spezifischen Z?llen zum Ausdruck kommt, in dieser Zeit reduzierte und dadurch die überm?\ige Belastung, die mit diesen Tarifen verbunden ist, herabsetzte. Dieser Aufsatz liefert Sch?tzwerte (1) für die Verringerung der überm?\igen Belastung durch diese Tarife und (2) für die von der Inflation verursachte Verminderung der generellen USZollprotektion. Nach den Sch?tzungen der Autoren verringerte die Inflation zwischen 1972 und 1979 die durchschnittlichen Zolls?tze für Meistbegünstigungsimporte um 11,9 vH. In den Verhandlungen der Kennedy-Runde wurden die Z?lle sch?tzungsweise um 35 vH herabgesetzt, w?hrend der Zollabbau der Tokio-Runde bei 33 vH lag. Die inflationsinduzierte Zollsenkung ist im Vergleich zu diesen formalen Zollsenkungen betr?chtlich. Trotz des günstigen Vergleichs scheinen die Wohlfahrtsgewinne, die sich aus dem inflationsbedingten Abbau ergeben, verh?ltnism?\ig klein zu sein.

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Résumé La réduction de tarif via l’inflation: Les tarifs spécifiques des E.U. 1972–1979. -Des tarifs spécifiques des E.U., purement spécifiques aussi bien que le rapport spécifique des droits composés, ont été fixés en terme nominal entre {dy1972} et 1979. L’inflation des E.U. entre 1972 et 1979 avait réduit le niveau de la protection, qui est implicite dans ces tarifs spécifiques, et diminué ainsi le charge d’excès associé avec ces tarifs. L’article contient des estimations (1) de la réduction du charge d’excès associé avec ces tarifs et (2) de la réduction induite par l’inflation en protection générale des E.U. Les auteurs estiment que l’inflation entre 1972 et 1979 a causé une réduction de 11.9 pourcent du taux tarifaire moyen imposé sur les importations NPF. Les négociations de la ?Kennedy Round? ont réduit, d’après cette estimation, les tarifs de 35 pourcent, pendant que la réduction à la fin de la ?Tokyo Round? se chiffrait à 33 pourcent. La réduction induite par l’inflation se tient favorablement avec les résultats de ces réductions officielles. Malgré cette comparaison favorable les gains de bien-être qui résultaient de ces réductions induites par l’inflation semblent relativement petits.

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Resumen Reducción de axanceles por medio de inflación: Aranceles específicos en los EEUU entre {dy1972} y 1979. -Los aranceles específicos de los EEUU, tanto aquellos puramente específicos como también la porción específica de los aranceles combinados, han permanecido fijos en términos nominales entre 1972 y 1979. Por ello, la inflación que hubo en los EEUU entre 1972 y 1979 redujo el nivel real de protección implicite en los aranceles específicos. En este trabajo se presentan estimaciones (1) de la reducción de la protección asociada con estos aranceles y (2) de la reducción de la protección total del sistema general de aranceles de los EEUU inducida por la inflación. Segün los resultados de los autores la inflación logró disminuir el arancel medio sobre importaciones MFN en un 11,9 por ciento entre {dy1972} y 1979. Las negociaciones en la Kennedy Round habrían reducido la protección en un 35 por ciento, mientras que las de la Tokio Round habrian logrado una reducción del 33 por ciento. La reducción de la protección inducida por la inflación puede compararse ventajosamente con la que ocurrió en estas negociaciones. Sin embargo, los beneficios relativos derivados de la reductión inducida por la inflación resultan marginales.

     

A Short-Run Crude Oil Price Forecast Model with Ratchet Effect

From 1992 through early 2004, crude oil prices were predictable by using OECD’s relative inventories and OPEC’s excess production capacity. However, since 2004, estimated inventories and excess production capacity under-predict crude oil prices. Using 3-D graphical analyzes, three regimes are identified in crude oil markets during the period from January 1992 to December 2007, reflecting market conditions and OPEC policy changes. These graphics show the changing relationship between crude oil price, inventories and excess production capacity. To reflect this, a ratchet variable, derived from cumulative excess production capacity, is incorporated into the forecasting model to reflect the changing behavior on both demand and supply sides. This model provides improved forecasts for the post Gulf War I time period over models without the ratchet mechanism.

Taking Advantage of an Untapped Pool: Assessing the Success of African American Head Coaches in the National Football League

Noting that only five African American coaches had been hired to lead National Football League (NFL) teams from 1989–2002, Madden (J of Sports Econ, 5(1):6–19 2004) found that teams coached by African Americans in the NFL outperformed their counterparts in the regular season but were significantly below average in the playoffs. This analysis, with data that includes nine African American coaches and extends through 2007, reconfirms Madden’s finding that African American head coaches outperform their rivals in the regular season, but also finds that African American coaches no longer suffer from poor playoff performance. Using fixed effects pooled cross section time series models, this analysis confirms that teams with African American head coaches can expect more wins in the regular season than their peers, other things equal. However, there is some evidence that as the pool of African American coaching talent diminishes from additional hires their extraordinary performance may be slightly regressing. The playoff analysis shows that that when controlling for seeding, organizational strength and regular season wins, African American coaches perform at the same level as their counterparts.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Reserve Policy: The Italian Lira, 1883–1911

The three exchange rate regimes adopted by Italy from 1883 up to the eve of World War I — the gold standard (1883–1893), floating rates (1894–1902), and “gold shadowing” (1903–1911)—produced a puzzling result: formal adherence to the gold standard ended in failure while shadowing the gold standard proved very successful. This paper discusses the main policies underlying Italy’s performance particularly focusing on the strategy of reserve accumulation. It presents a cointegration analysis identifying a distinct co-movement between exchange rate, reserves, and banknotes that holds over the three sub-periods of the sample. Given this long-run relationship, the different performance in each regime is explained by the diversity of policy measures, reflected in the different variables adjusting the system in the various regimes. Italy’s variegated experience during the gold standard provides a valuable lesson about current developments in the international scenario, showing the central role of fundamentals and consistent policies.     

The short run demand for major league baseball

Conclusions In this paper an attempt was made to analyze those factors which determine the short run demand for baseball. This work represents the first of its kind in the baseball industry. The regression results provide new insight in assessing the specific variables which enter into a fan's decision to attend a particular baseball game. These results should be of considerable importance to team owners and league officials who attempt to maximize interest and therefore attendance in professional baseball.     

Information barriers, export promotion institutions, and the extensive margin of trade

This paper assesses the role played by export promotion institutions in shaping the extensive margin of Latin American and Caribbean countries’ exports over the period 1995–2004. We find that the presence of offices of export promotion agencies abroad favors an increase in the number of differentiated goods that are exported, whereas a larger number of diplomatic representations in the importer countries seem to be associated with exports of a larger number of homogeneous goods.     

Consumer demand by Black Americans

This article investigates the consumption patterns of black Americans for five different commodity groups: food, housing, clothing, health care, and transportation. The black consumer’s demand for these products is hypothesized as describable by the linear expenditure system. The system allows the investigation of changing relative commodity prices and income. The system also establishes a basic consumption bundle as an estimable parameter of the system. The basic bundle allows for changes in composition due to increased product familiarity, habit formation, and emulation by black consumers. Product familiarity and habit-formation play a role in determining the black consumer’s demand for the commodities food, housing, and clothing. This demand is also partially determined by the consumer’s “emulation” of consumption standards established by society in general. The article is not a comparison study of black-white differences in consumer behavior; however, the possible existence of an emulation effect in black consumer behavior suggests an interrelation of black-white consumer welfare which might fruitfully be studied by future researchers.     

Do Investors Care if Steve Jobs is Healthy?

Steve Jobs of Apple, Inc., is one of the best known CEOs in the world, and some stock analysts have termed him “irreplaceable.” Using conventional event study methods, we test the magnitude of these announcements on Apple’s share price and its market capitalization. We focus upon nine “events” between 2004 and 2009 in which new information about Mr. Jobs’ health was flushed into the marketplace, on occasion by Apple itself, but more often by the commentary and speculations of media observers, stock analysts and bloggers. We find that the impact of these announcements upon Apple share prices is mixed, usually modest, and disappears over time. We conclude that Jobs’ health has an impact on Apple’s share price and market capitalization, but that impact is not always negative and not nearly as large as many observers apparently believe.