全球化：从开始到结束

因为没有对石油价格对冲,失去了利润;因为没有利润,失去了红利;因为没有了红利,失去了投资者;因为没有了投资者,失去了融资;因为没有了融资,失去了航空公司;因为没有了航空公司,失去了旅游业;因为没有了旅游业,失去了经济——所有这一切都是由于没有对石油价格进行对冲。这就是全球经济的相互链接性。     

把引力接到新的空间

卡缪搬家了。马奎斯搬家了。 卡尔维诺搬家了。莫内搬家了。 林布阑搬家了。毕加索搬家了。 瑞典KOSTA BODA彩色玻璃搬家了。 英国WEDGWOOD骨瓷搬家了。 法国HEDIARD咖啡搬家了。 诚品敦南店搬家了。 写下以上文字的许舜英搬家了。     

新资产减值准则特点和实施中存在的问题

新颁布的资产减值准则较之旧准则有了较大的改进。它的实施增强了会计核算的可操作性,抑制了企业利用减值准备调节利润的行为,提升了企业会计信息的可靠性,实现了与国际会计准则的基本趋同,推进了我国资本市场的健康、有序、持续发展。但新准则在实施过程中仍出现了一些问题,有待进一步解决和完善。本文对其特点及存在的问题进行了分析探讨。     

面对国际金融危机 善抓经贸发展商机

2008年是极不寻常的一年,国际国内经历了多少喜事大事,遇到灾害和挑战。在党中央的正确领导下,我们战胜了灾害,迎接了挑战,胜利举办了奥运会、残奥会。大振了国威,鼓舞了中华民族的信心,各条战线取得了辉煌的成就。     

赢销巧智慧

西方有一首著名民谣《一个钉子亡了一个国家》,说的是：钉马掌的少钉一个钉子,结果坏了一只蹄铁：坏了一只蹄铁,导致战场上折了一匹战马;折了一匹战马,伤了一位大将;伤了一位大将,输了一场战斗;输了一场战斗,亡了一个国家。美国的一位气象学家发现,一只蝴蝶在巴西漫不经心地拍动了几下翅膀,经过一段时间后,     

中央电视台：抗震救灾第二现场

申央电视台新闻频道《抗震救灾、众志成城》观场直播的同步开播和24小时不间断播出，充分体现了对观众知情权的尊重，满足了观众对重大信息的渴求、澄清了事实，遏制了谣言，让真相跑在了谣言的前面。     

加盟保障落实到位 海参专卖个个赚钱

<正>"赔了,算我的!"东方神参的老总秦邦伟对一个加盟商这样说,"我们有几十个加盟商,现在还没有赔的,今年做的最好的加盟商,投资5万已经赚到了近20万。除非你不好好干。"赚钱才是硬道理,加盟商都赚钱,老总自然底气足。淄川店开业了、德州店开业了、滨州店开业了、泰安店开业了、东营店开业了……慕名而来的投资者,亲眼目睹了加盟商的生意经营,亲眼目睹海参加工厂的加工过程,几乎再不用总部工作人员介绍,争相到总部加盟,因为他们看到了赚钱的加     

夏治冰:同行13年 告别比亚迪

"哈利波特7告一段落了,再会了凤凰社魔法学校。变形金刚3,告一段落了,再会了斯坦博星球的汽车人。"辞职过后,夏治冰在微博中写下了一段意味深长的话。     

电子化采购优势分析及实施电子采购策略

网络时代,电子化采购以特定的技术创建了企业通用的交易平台,利用中央数据库,为买家提供了接触大量供应商的通道,消除了交易中的无用步骤,减少了书面工作和供应链上的浪费,降低了商业成本,改善了商业活动周期,提升了采购行为能力,具有传统采购方式无法比拟的竞争优势。     

打开窗户掀掉屋顶

改革开放从摸着石头过河开始,逐渐地撑破了沉寂多年的条条框框,中国渐渐地变得有了活力。当窗户打开了,看到了先进国家发展经济的好经验:当屋顶掀掉了,大脑转弯了,开始思考追赶世界发达国家。     

空间面板误差模型中随机效应的C(α)检验

由于空间面板误差模型中的空间误差项和随机效应之间存在相关性,传统的面板数据模型随机效应检验无法直接应用到空间面板误差模型。如果采用极大似然估计法估计空间面板误差模型然后构建随机效应检验,又会遇到计算困难的问题。文章构建了空间面板误差模型中用来检验随机效应的C(α)检验,该检验仅依赖于参数的一致估计且计算简单。蒙特卡罗模拟结果表明本文提出的C(α)检验有良好的有限样本性质。     

RISK MEASURES FOR NON-INTEGRABLE RANDOM VARIABLES

We show that when a real-valued risk measure is defined on a solid, rearrangement invariant space of random variables, then necessarily it satisfies a weak compactness, also called continuity from below, property, and the space necessarily consists of integrable random variables. As a result we see that a risk measure defined for, say, Cauchy-distributed random variable, must take infinite values for some of the random variables.     

Stability of mutual fund systematic risk statistics

Empirical data for 85 mutual funds are used to test the intertemporal stability of their systematic risk statistics. Reasons why the portfolios may be nonstationary are suggested. A random coefficient model developed by Theil [37] is employed to test for the stability of each fund's beta. The data suggest that some funds do exhibit a beta that is best described as being a random coefficient. However, the percentage of funds exhibiting this characteristic was not statistically different from the percentage of randomly created portfolios that exhibited a random beta coefficient. The findings of this study support the statistical models employed in two other recent studies [18,21] to test for the stability of beta. Yet, for mutual funds that do exhibit a random beta coefficient, the partitioning of the total risk of the portfolio return into systematic and unsystematic risk is no longer valid for explaining the total risk.     

一类改进的随机平移替代法构造的宽间隔跳频序列

为了进一步提高随机平移替代法的性能,提出了基于m序列的一类改进的宽间 隔跳频序列的构造方法。基于MATLAB对比分析了用该方法和随机平移替代法产生的跳频序列 的周期性、归一化自相关特性、归一化互相关特性、频隙数及平均跳频间隔等性能指标。结 果表明,该方法产生的跳频序列的各项性能均优于随机平移替代法,序列的随机性和抗破译 性得到了进一步提高。     

Bayesian and mixed estimators of time varying betas

Based on the random coefficient model, Vasicek's static Bayesian beta coefficient adjustment model is extended to a dynamic model. It is shown that the time-varying security beta model can be used to identify and resolve the existence of nonstationary (weak stationary) beta coefficient over time. The implication of a random beta coefficient on th standard Bayesian adjustment is also explored. The usefulness of employing time-varying security beta estimates in forecasting the future beta in terms of Box and Jenkins' ARIMA model is also empirically demonstrated.     

A martingale representation theorem and valuation of defaultable securities

We consider a financial framework with two levels of information: the public information generated by the financial assets, and a larger flow of information that contains additional knowledge about a random time. This random time can represent many economic and financial settings, such as the default time of a firm for credit risk, and the death time of an insured for life insurance. As the random time cannot be seen before its occurrence, the progressive enlargement of filtration seems tailor‐fit to model the larger flow of information that incorporates both the public flow and the information about the random time. In this context, our interest focuses on the following challenges: (a) How to single out the various risks coming from the financial assets, the random time, and their correlations? (b) How these risks interplay and lead to the formation of any risk in the larger flow of information? It is clear that understanding how risks build‐up and interact, when one enlarges the flow of information, is vital for an efficient risk management and derivatives' evaluation in those informational markets. Our answers to these challenges are full and complete no matter what the model for the random time is and no matter how the random time is related to the public flow. In fact, we introduce “pure default” risks, and quantify and classify these risks afterward. Then we elaborate our martingale representation results, which state that any martingale in the large filtration stopped at the random time can be decomposed into orthogonal local martingales (i.e., local martingales whose product remains a local martingale). This constitutes our first principal contribution, while our second contribution consists in evaluating various defaultable securities according to the recovery policy, within our financial setting that encompasses any default model, using a martingale “basis.” Our pricing formulas explain the impact of various recovery policies on securities and determine the types of pure default risk they entail.     

The theorems of international trade under generalized uncertainty

A number of authors have extended the theorems of international trade to the case where the output of the various production processes (for pre-set inputs) is random. But they limited their analysis to a very special type of technological randomness known in the financial literature as ‘scalar uncertainty’. The purpose of the present paper is to extend the theorems to a much wider class of random neoclassical production functions. It is assumed that there exists a unified stock market worldwide.     

一种新型交织器的设计

在简单介绍两种常用交织器的基础上,给出了随机分组交织器的设计,并进行了计算机仿真。结果表明,此交织器设计简单,占用内存少,性能明显优于分组交织器,而仅次于随机交织器。     

Mean Reversion and the Comovement of Equilibrium Spot and Futures Prices: Implications from Alternative Data‐Generating Processes

The comovements of spot and futures prices are characterized by six binary variables, including the term structure curvature of futures prices. These variables are used to uniquely identify 48 possible comovement patterns. Among them, 24 cases are associated with mean reversion, which is defined as a state when spreads between futures and spot prices are shrinking. These pattern frequencies are then calculated on a daily basis with the futures prices of 10 commodities, including precious metal, agricultural, and financial commodities. The results are further compared to simulation output from three data‐generating processes: a bivariate pure random walk, a mixed random walk with first‐order autoregression (AR(1)), and an error‐correction representation. The mean‐reverting frequencies for all 10 commodities are about 50%. Around half of the time, spot and futures prices are moving toward each other, and the rest of the time they move in the same direction. The symmetry of these results implies that the existence of substantial shocks originated from futures markets; thus, this is consistent with the risk premium view of futures trading. Also, although all simulation models produce similar mean‐reversion frequencies, the patterns of comovements of spot and futures prices are different, and the price dynamics depend heavily on whether the market is dominant contango or backwardation. Furthermore, the error‐correction model outperforms the random‐walk model for agricultural commodities, and the mixed random walk with AR(1) is hardly distinguishable from the pure random walk. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:769–796, 2001     

QAM-OFDM雷达通信共享信号长时间相参积累算法

QAM-OFDM(Quadrature Amplitude Modulation-Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing)雷达通信共享信号因携带随机通信信息，其脉压旁瓣的随机性较大，类似噪声的影响。针对该问题，采用基于Keystone变换的长时间相参积累算法抑制其旁瓣。在共享信号模型的基础上，分析了其脉压旁瓣受随机通信信息的影响以及采用长时间相参积累抑制其旁瓣的可行性，然后采用Keystone变换校正其长时间相参积累产生的距离单元走动，并进行多普勒模糊补偿处理。理论分析和仿真结果表明，该方法使得回波能量积累集中，能有效实现共享信号脉压旁瓣的抑制。