2011年10月上海期货交易所市场综述

金属市场：10月伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜表现为强劲上涨走势,而期铝、期锌、期铅则呈盘整至小幅上涨。穆迪宣布调降西班牙评级、德国对欧洲承诺制定的方案态度悲观,一度令市场大幅下跌,但随后欧盟领导人在希腊债务减记、EFSF扩容、银行业资本状况三个重大领域达成共识,国际有色金属价格在月末上涨明显。     

2011年6月上海期货交易所市场综述

金属市场：6月伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜、期锌、期铅价格总体表现为区间整理后强势反弹走势,而期铝则呈现持续下跌走势。上半月希腊国债评级下调再次引发投资者对欧债危机担忧等因素令有色金属价格承压走软;     

2014年7月上海期货交易所市场综述

金属市场：7月．伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铝和期锌价格单边上行．期铜和期铅价格震荡上扬。月初,受美国就业数据表现亮眼、中国6月采购经理指数（PMI）数据大幅反弹等因素影响．金属价格迎来一波涨势。月中金属价格走势出现分化。下旬．中欧美经济数据回暖推动金属价格节节攀升。     

2011年5月上海期货交易所市场综述

金属市场：5月伦敦金属交易所期铜、期铝、期锌、期铅价格总体表现为先抑后扬的震荡走势。上半月受能源价格高涨带来全球通胀压力、主要经济体采取价格调控手段、白银等贵金属大幅杀跌等影响,基本金属价格呈下跌走势,下半月在美元指数回落的支撑下止跌反弹。月末,三月期铜价格收于9220美元/吨,较上月下跌100美元;三月期铝价格收于2677美元/吨,     

2011年11月上海期货交易所市场综述

金属市场：11月伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜、期铝、期锌、期铅价格呈下行走势．月末大幅反弹。欧债危机愈演愈烈、美国国会“超级委员会”承认减赤举措磋商搁浅，引发投资者担忧全球经济前景，导致金属期价全月呈下跌态势。月末．全球六大央行采取协调行动向市场提供流动性．中国央行决定下调存款准备金率．令金属期价逆转走强。     

2010年3月上海期货交易所市场综述

铜、铝、锌：2010年3月．伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜、期铝、期锌价格呈现盘整后突破的两阶段走势．月末，随着欧洲债务危机的缓解和美国就业数据的利好．LME期铜价格向上形成突破．带动期铝、期锌也出现上涨。三月期铜价格收于7820美元／吨，较上月上涨594美元；三月期铝收于2330美元／吨，较上月上涨196美元；     

2013年8月上海期货交易所市场综述

金属市场：8月伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜、期铝、期铅和期锌价格呈现震荡上扬态势。上半月,全球多国制造业指数向好以及就业市场温和改善,推动金属价格上扬。下半月,受美联储退出QE计划的不确定性令市场不安等因素影响,金属价格回吐前期部分涨势。月末,LME三月期铜价格收于7100美元／吨,较上月上涨220美元：三月期铝价格收于1814美元／吨。     

2012年5月上海期货交易所市场综述

金属市场：2012年5月,伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜、期铝、期锌、期铅价格总体呈大幅走低的态势。受希腊未能成功组建联合政府遭惠誉调降评级、美国商务部下调一季度GDP预估值、中国官方辟谣“4万亿”刺激计划等因素影响,金属价格基本呈持续下跌的走势。月末,LME三月期铜收于74375美元／吨．较上月下跌964．5美元;三月期铝收于1994美元／吨,较上月下跌125.5美元;三月期锌收于1881美元／吨,较上月下跌177美元：三月期铅收于1925美元／吨,较上月下跌221.3美元。     

2011年3月上海期货交易所市场综述

金属市场：3月伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜、期铝、期锌、期铅价格总体表现为冲高回落、止跌回升。受利比亚及中东政局不稳、欧洲债务危机再次升温等影响,金属价格整体高位回落。而美国经济总体好转及日本灾后重建将长期拉动金属需求令市场看好金属消费后市,金属价格止跌回升。月末,     

2014年3月上海期货交易所市场综述

金属市场：3月伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜、期锌和期铅价格震荡下行．期铝价格则震荡上扬。上甸．受美国非农就业数据优于市场预估支持美联储缩减购债计划、中国首次出现企业债务违约等因素影响．金属价格陷入跌势：中下旬,美联储宣布继续缩减购债规模但维持超低利率不变,市场对中国政府出台提振经济措施的预期增强,金属价格逐步企稳。铝价因美铝减产而领涨其他金属。     

2014年9月上海期货交易所市场综述

金属市场：本月伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜、期铝、期锌和期铅价格震荡下跌。利好频出的美国经济数据巩固美国经济继续稳步扩张态势,美联储暗示未来可能的升息节奏提振美元指数走强,加之欧元区制造业、服务业和中国贸易数据等弱于预期,金属价格弱势震荡整理。     

Assessing the future of futures studies in management

It can be observed that a growing number of German corporations are using futures studies and its methods in various ways. This evidence suggests that there is a strong ongoing interest in the field of management in futures studies. To assess how the future of futures studies might look like a Delphi study was carried out. The experts in this Delphi study were asked not only to state how futures studies are used in corporations but also what futures studies need to accomplish in order to find more acceptance.The Delphi study suggests that futures studies will become more important in German corporations. In particular, the improvement of methods like environmental scanning, trend research, trend monitoring, strategic early warning and the scenario technique were suggested. While the results of the Delphi study do not suggest that new methods are needed, implementation remains a major concern.     

基本有色金属期货市场价格波动实证分析

依据铜、铝和锌三种典型性基本有色金属在金融危机前后的期货价格波动数据,运用分解-合成框架和时变TVP-VAR分析模型,考量影响基本有色金属期货价格波动重大事件和长期趋势价格波动的因素及价格时变特征。结果发现：铜、铝和锌三种基本有色金属期货的价格走势基本一致,且与中国宏观经济密切相关,其价格的最低点都出现在金融危机期间,而价格的最高点基本都出现在经济繁荣期;基本有色金属价格存在同涨同跌关系,而且涨跌幅基本趋势相一致。鉴此,可以对具有周期变化特征的基本有色金属价格走势进行预测,并规避价格波动的风险。     

股指期货交易场所选择分析

股指期货是在证券交易所上市还是在期货交易所上市,国际上没有统一的惯例.本文根据我国目前证券市场发展状况,从股指期货全球的发展趋势、风险控制、运行成本、长远发展等几方面,分析我国推出股指期货交易地点的选择问题,认为我国证券交易所推出股指期货要优于期货交易所推出股指期货.     

全球商品期货市场的发展趋势展望

本文从商品期货市场发展的现状出发,阐述了中国商品期货市场所取得的成就以及尚处于初级阶段的现实,并深入剖析当前宏观经济形势对大宗商品期货市场的复杂影响,展望了未来国际及国内商品期货市场的发展。     

Health trend assessment in Indonesia Futures studies at the provincial level

Health trend assessment studies have been carried out in Indonesia at the national and provincial levels, to provide input into long-term national development plans and to build up the capacity for local health planning in anticipation of decentralization. Provincial health trend assessment studies have been done in five provinces by teams from local health and planning authorities and the local school of public health. These provincial teams have all used background documents and standard procedures developed by a national team and have gone through the same methodological training. Out of the experience have come specific ideas about how trend assessment and similar activities can be strengthened. Among the recommendations are the establishment of national research centres for trend analysis, efforts to improve availability and reliability of relevant data, the training of a cadre of health professionals familiar with futures methods, and continued promotion by WHO and other agencies of long-term health planning and health futures.     

Trend following,risk parity and momentum in commodity futures

We show that combining momentum and trend following strategies for individual commodity futures can lead to portfolios which offer attractive risk adjusted returns which are superior to simple momentum strategies; when we expose these returns to a wide array of sources of systematic risk we find that robust alpha survives. Experimenting with risk parity portfolio weightings has limited impact on our results though in particular is beneficial to long–short strategies; the marginal impact of applying trend following methods far outweighs momentum and risk parity adjustments in terms of risk-adjusted returns and limiting downside risk. Overall this leads to an attractive strategy for investing in commodity futures and emphasises the importance of trend following as an investment strategy in the commodity futures context.     

全球交易所战略合并背景下我国期货结算模式创新研究

独立结算模式和专属结算模式是国际期货市场结算体系的基本模式。在国际期货结算体系的发展实践中,两种模式各有利弊、相互交融、长期共存。随着全球衍生品市场竞争日趋激烈,交易所之间的战略合并成为衍生品市场发展的新趋势。但就期货产品的结算模式而言,专属结算模式成为各个交易所集团共同的选择或发展方向。目前我国期货市场的结算由四家交易所的内设结算部分别进行,随着期货市场创新发展的进一步深入,现行结算模式存在的问题也逐渐显现。建立期货市场独立统一的结算公司或成立交易所控股的结算公司,将是我国期货市场结算模式的路径选择。     

Price dynamics in refined petroleum spot and futures markets

This article characterizes the spot and futures price dynamics of two important physical commodities, gasoline and heating oil. Using a non-linear error correction model with time-varying volatility, we demonstrate many new results. Specifically, the convergence of spot and futures prices is asymmetric, non-linear, and volatility inducing. Moreover, spreads between spot and futures prices explain virtually all spot return volatility innovations for these two commodities, and spot returns are more volatile when spot prices exceed futures prices than when the reverse is true. Furthermore, there are volatility spillovers from futures to spot markets (but not the reverse), futures volatility shocks are more persistent than spot volatility shocks, and the convergence of spot and futures prices is asymmetric and non-linear. These results have important implications. In particular, since the theory of storage implies that spreasd vary with fundamental supply and demand factors, the strong relation between spreads and volatility suggests that these fundamentals — rather than trading induced noise — are the primary determinants of spot price volatility. The volatility spillovers, differences in volatility persistence, and lead-lag relations are consistent with the view that the futures market is the primary locus of informed trading in refined petroleum product markets. Finally, our finding that error correction processes may be non-linear, asymmetric, and volatility inducing suggests that traditional approaches to the study of time series dynamics of variables that follow a common stochastic trend that ignore these complexities may be mis-specified.     

基于高频数据的股指期货与现货市场波动溢出和信息传导研究

本文利用沪深300指数和当月股指期货连续合约的高频数据,采用非参数方法估计日度股票指数和股指期货的整体波动、连续性波动和跳跃,发现两个市场波动成分存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,但是期货市场的跳跃并不会影响后续股票市场的跳跃。此外,已实现相关系数在股指期货上市初期表现出了较大的变动,整体表现出了较强的联动趋势。最后,日内高频价格之间存在稳定的协整关系,两个市场存在双向的信息传导,股指期货的价格发现功能得到发挥。