关于货币供给与经济增长,物价上涨关系的实证分析

关于货币供给与经济增长、物价上涨关系的实证分析方春树，聂建平货币供给、经济增长与物价上涨是分析宏观经济运行状况的三大经济指标。改革开放以来，我国这三大指标存在何种依存关系，更明确他说，作为外生变量——货币供给，对内生变量——经济增长与物价上涨有何影响...     

货币供给与经济增长、物价上涨关系的实证分析北大核心

货币供给与经济增长、物价上涨关系的实证分析方春树,聂建平货币供给、经济增长与物价上涨是分析宏观经济运行状况的三大经济指标。改革开放以来,我国这三大指标存在何种依存关系,更明确他说,作为外生变量一货币供给,对内生变量一经济增长与物价上涨有何影响,本文试...     

美国经济与我国物价上涨的关系分析

我国物价连续攀升,除经济持续高速增长带来的社会需求拉动,及粮食、肉禽食品的供给问题推动物价的上涨,把我国经济放在全球视角下观察,我国的物价上涨,明显有国际因素的影响。我国经济对外依存度高,尤其是对美国依存度高,美国经济走软、宽松的货币政策、美元贬值等美国一系列经济表现都不可避免地影响着我国物价的变动。     

从物价上涨来看我国经济市场通货膨胀萌芽

2003年起,我国经济进入新一轮的发展周期,驱动经济增长的内生动力强劲,较高的经济增长速度刺激社会总需求上升,推动物价上涨.但是物价上涨仅仅是我国经济市场的表面现象,究其首要原因,还在于我国经济市场发展不完善,实物市场和金融市场发展极不均衡.本文从我国经济现状入手分析,结合我国经济社会的具体特征,探讨我国经济市场所出现的通货膨胀萌芽并探讨相应的解决方案.     

通胀的继续治理和经济的良性循环

总量失衡,国民经济紧运行和超常波动,是通货膨胀、物价上涨的根本原因。从社会总资金运动的基本原理来看,通货稳定,社会生产与社会需要相适应,是经济正常运行的基础。当前对通胀需要继续治理,不仅为着稳定大局,而且也为了在继续治理中使经济走上良性循环的轨道。     

以结构调整治理结构性物价上涨

根据国家统计局公布数据,目前CPI已经达到11年来新高。国家高度重视物价上涨问题,将“防止经济增长由偏快转为过热、防止价格由结构性上涨演变为明显通货膨胀”作为宏观调控的首要任务。     

能力性经济租金:国有企业绩效评价新体系

国有企业的绩效评价体系无疑已经成为国有企业改革过程中一个关键环节 ,可谓是牵一发而动全身。本文从传统的绩效评价体系出发 ,系统比较了三种评价体系的优劣 ,并在比较分析的基础上提出了一个国有企业绩效评价的新体系 ,也就是能力性经济租金评估体系 ,本文最后就以上海市大型国有企业为样本的试算结果进行了简要总结 ,试算结果表明 :能力性经济租金在衡量企业绩效和管理层能力方面有非常大的实际应用价值。     

租金理论及其对资源税的影响

本文从租金的理论回顾入手,简要介绍了西方经济理论中的“经济租”、“稀缺租金”和“霍特林租金”的经济含义和相互关系,并以此为基础论证了我国资源税和矿产资源补偿费的经济性质,进而提出了资源税参与调节经济生活的理论依据和不可或缺的重要作用及其重新定位,即作为社会公共收入而不是作为国有资源租金表现形式的资源税,将以可持续发展为基本立足点,与环境保护政策相配合,专注于校正外部效应、维护代际资源利用公平、调整私人贴现率与社会贴现率的差异以及消除垄断对社会公平的损害和节能降耗等目标,这才应该成为资源税的基本定位和改革方向。     

经济超预期增长物价上涨未减

1月20日国家统计局公布2010年主要宏观经济数据．数据显示．第四季度GDP同比增速9．8％、2010年全年经济增速为3．3％。     

城市公用事业公共定价与绩效管理

城市公用事业改革是当前我国经济体制改革的重点和难点。其改革不仅涉及到经营及运作模式的转变,也涉及到管理体制的转型。就各国公用事业管理的方法及经验来看,价格监管是其最重要的监管方式和手段之一。本文主要从公共管理的视角出发,借鉴和运用绩效管理的理论和方法,以公共定价为切入点,分析了我国城市公用事业的特征及现行定价机制中存在的问题,就如何完善我国城市公用事业公共定价机制提出了几点政策建议。     

经济扩张、温和通胀与外生货币供给背景下的债市交易策略

2010年宏观经济基本面将面临经济增长由复苏走向扩张、物价预期由通缩走向通胀、货币供给由内生走向外生的三大转变。由此,货币政策可能在适度宽松基调下有所收紧。在此背景下,2010年的债市机会与风险并存,投资者需要在债券品种、期限和等级方面做出谨慎选择,以应对宏观经济基本面和货币政策的变化。     

商业银行经济资本管理理论和实践探索

经济资本管理基于资本的稀缺性和高成本性,具有效益约束和风险约束的双效应。近年来,银行管理领域发生的最为显著的变化是,其管理重点逐渐过渡到以风险度量和资本优化配置为核心的全面风险管理。经济资本是贯穿风险度量和资本优化配置这一过程的关键概念,不仅可以提高商业银行的资本管理水平,而且通过发挥经济资本在商业银行经营管理中的预算管理、资源配置和绩效考核作用,推动我国商业银行向现代商业银行转变。从长远看,推行经济资本管理将对商业银行和金融监管当局产生重大的深远影响。     

房地产信贷、房价与经济增长——基于东中西部的实证研究

我们选取我国2003-2010年东、中、西部地区的面板数据,对房地产需求和供给收入弹性、房地产市场需求和供给及影响房价的因素、房地产对经济增长的作用进行实证研究发现,西部地区房地产市场的需求和供给收入弹性小于东、中部;房地产价格在需求和供给市场违背一般价格规律;银行信贷对东部地区房价的影响较为明显;中、西部当期需求的增加会促进下一期经济发展。     

Trend inflation, wage and price rigidities, and productivity growth

What are the steady-state implications of inflation in a general-equilibrium model with real per capita output growth and staggered nominal price and wage contracts? Surprisingly, a benchmark calibration implies an optimal inflation rate of -1.9 percent. The analysis also shows that trend inflation has important effects on the economy when combined with nominal contracts and real output growth. Steady-state output and welfare losses are quantitatively important even for low values of trend inflation. Further, nominal wage contracting is found to be quantitatively more important than nominal price contracting in generating the results. This conclusion does not arise from price dispersion per se, but from an effect of nominal output growth on the optimal markup of monopolistically competitive labour suppliers. Finally, accounting for productivity growth is found to be important for calculating the welfare costs of inflation. Indeed, the presence of 2 percent productivity growth increases the welfare costs of inflation in the benchmark specification by a factor of four relative to the no-growth case.     

经济复苏进程中国际金价缘何大幅上涨

金融危机过后,在世界经济的复苏进程中,国际黄金价格出现大幅度上涨,其主要原因是美元贬值的压力、通货膨胀的威胁、复苏进程的不确定性、国际黄金市场供求关系的变化。黄金价格短期内上行趋势不会改变,但长期看不可持续。     

Oil price shocks and American depositary receipt stock returns

In this paper we examine the impact of oil price shocks on twelve countries American Depositary Receipt (ADR) returns using monthly data from 1999.01 to 2014.12. The results show that oil price shocks have a positive and statistically significant impact on ADR return in all twelve countries. These results are robust to the inclusion of other explanatory variables such as oil price volatility and the spillover of the United States stock market. Further analysis shows that this effect is stronger in the post financial crisis time period compared to the pre-financial crisis time period.     

Oil price and FX-rates dependency

Oil prices and exchange rates against the dollar have both experienced long swings over the recent decade. Regardless of the great amount of research, some issues are still open to debate. In this vein, this paper focuses on the evolution of the relationship between oil prices and dollar exchange rates of 12 oil exporting and oil importing countries based on a dynamic copula approach. We use daily data for two 5-year periods between 2003 and 2013, taking the collapse of Lehman Brothers as the dividing point. Our results have four main implications: first, the intensity of relationship between oil prices and FX-rates has increased over time even if the peak of the financial crisis is included. Second, the increased tail dependency shows that extreme events are likelier to occur simultaneously for both series. Third, the dependency has become more dynamic after the financial crisis and is therefore better characterized by time-varying copulas. Finally, currencies of oil importers and oil exporters display a different dependency structure against the US dollar in the case of rising oil prices with the latter appreciating and the former depreciating.     

我国经济金融运行状况和相关政策解析

本文对我国经济金融运行现状进行了分析,阐述了货币政策适时适度调整,成功进行了宏观调控,促进了经济平稳较快发展。未来一段时期,我国金融业面临难得机遇和严峻挑战,需要注意把握政策的稳定性、针对性和灵活性,维护金融稳定,促进经济结构调整和发展方式转变。     

Stabilizing non-fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information

Inflation, output and interest rate stabilization are all potential central bank objectives. We explore whether monetary policy should respond to asset price fluctuations when they are driven by irrational expectational shocks to the future returns to capital. In our model, an optimistic shock to future returns generates both an increase in equity prices and physical investment. The increased investment is inefficient and, thus, a central bank optimally responds to this expectations shocks. This induces a trade-off between stabilizing nominal prices and non-fundamental asset price movements. We compare the optimal policy under different assumptions: full versus limited information and commitment versus discretion. If the central bank has limited information about whether an asset price movement has a fundamental or non-fundamental origin, then the central bank responds less aggressively to the non-fundamental exuberance shocks than under full information. Without commitment, a central bank responds more aggressively to non-fundamental exuberance shocks.