On the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of interest rates and country risk premiums

We examine the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates and country risk premiums for the Eurozone and six other industrial countries for 1999–2008. In so doing, we utilize comparable random walk forecasts as benchmarks. Consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, the long-term interest rate forecasts fail to outperform the random walk. Our findings on the accuracy of short-term interest rate forecasts are, however, mixed. Further results reveal that Blue Chip is more (less) accurate in predicting country risk premiums associated with short-term (long-term) interest rates. Such evidence is reasonable since the short-term country risk premiums contain only the perceived default risk, while the long-term risk premiums, in addition, can contain the perceived inflation and exchange rate differentials.     

试析人民币对外升值与对内贬值并存

Since 2002, RMB has shown a phenomenon which is the co-existence of the external appreciation and the domestic inflation. This new monetary phenomenon has been strengthened in the context that US dollar depreciates internationally and that domestic economy is overwhelmed with excessive liquidities. The new monetary phenomenon is the reflection of the real economy that continuing trade surplus, triggered robustly by the export-driven economy, which brings a huge amount of foreign exchange reserve and accelerates sequentially the expansion of domestic money supply. Furthermore, a refrained appreciation of RMB tends to deteriorate the domestic inflation, which is not simply a traditional concept of CPI but a broad inflation parameter including a variety of asset prices. It is sure that the new phenomenon is becoming a new challenge to the macroeconomic equilibrium as well as the decision maker of monetary policy. __________ Translated from Jingji yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2007, (9): 32–48     

Shifts and twists in the relative productivity of skilled labor

Skill-biased technical change is usually interpreted in terms of the efficiency parameters of skilled and unskilled labor. This implies that the relative productivity of skilled workers changes proportionally in all tasks. In contrast, we argue that technical changes also affect the curvature of the distribution of relative productivity. Building on Rosen (1978) [Rosen, S., 1978. Substitution and the division of labor. Economica 45, 235–250] tasks assignment model, this implies that not only the efficiency parameters of skilled and unskilled workers change, but also the elasticity of substitution between skill types of labor. Using data for the United States between 1963 and 2002, we find significant empirical support for a decrease in the elasticity of substitution at the end of the 1970s followed by an increase at the beginning of the 1990s. This pattern of the elasticity of substitution has contributed to the labor productivity slowdown in the mid-1970s through the 1980s and to a speedup in the 1990s.     

Regional diversity of agricultural labor productivity and its driving force in east China

China＇s eastern area is at middle and later stage of industrialization during which the relation between urban and rural areas, industry, and agriculture appears maladjusted. The main problems are shrinkage in agricultural comparative earning and lack of driving force of agricultural development. Based on calculating agricultural labor productivity in east China from 1996 to 2005, this paper analyzes contributing degree of motive forces of agriculture develop in ten provinces and cities of east China applying GCA （Grey correlative analysis）. The results show that there is no absolute correspondence between the level of industrialization and agricultural labor productivity in China＇s eastern area. There is no synchronous development between industry and agricultural labor productiviry in some areas. Fertilizer and agricultural machinery input had high contributing degree for ten years; however; contributing degree in land and irrigation work input was low. Non-materialization inputs became the leading role in most provinces and cities＇ increase of agricultural labor productivity. Modern agricultural development need non-materialization inputs as primary motive force, at the same time, direct material input and facility input as guaranteed function. For some reasons, agricultural development is characterized by ＂more direct material input, less facility input ＂ in east China now. Optimal driving.force model of future agricultural development in east China is that non-materialization inputs are dominant, that perfected facility input arc guarantee, and that certain substance inputs are necessary     

Labor market rigidity and productivity growth in a model of innovation-driven growth

Empirical studies investigating the relationship between productivity performance and labor market rigidity have generated a negative result. In this paper we try to provide a theoretical explanation for this empirical result. In doing so, we construct a no-shirking model of innovation-based growth and investigate the steady-state impact of a set of active labor market policies aimed at reducing labor market rigidity and knowledge mismatch generated by innovations. We find that, while enhancing job finding activity definitively improves the equilibrium growth-unemployment mix of the economy, reducing the knowledge mismatch of innovation through active measures is less effective in reducing the equilibrium unemployment and improving growth.     

Market thickness,sunk costs,productivity, and the outsourcing decision: an empirical analysis of manufacturing firms in France

Abstract This paper presents an empirical analysis of outsourcing behaviour by French manufacturing industries. It focuses on the effects of market thickness, sunk costs, and the productivity of firms on the outsourcing decision. I estimate a dynamic probit model where outsourcing decision is linked to past outsourcing behaviour. The results show that outsourcing is a persistent strategy adopted by large firms and suggest the presence of significant sunk costs associated with outsourcing. The results also show that market thickness reduces search costs and enhances the establishment of outsourcing relationships.     

A multiple time-series analysis of labor supply and earnings in economic development

Using multivariate time-series techniques, the dynamics of male and female labor supply and earnings in Puerto Rico are examined during a period of rapid economic developemnt, 1953–1978. The temporal analysis suggests that aggregate male and female labor force participation rates are exogenous to male and female earnings. In addition, continous declines in male participation have been partly responsible for increases in both male and female earnings and a narrowing of relative earnings differentials. The study also finds that the advent of the Food Stamp Program in 1975 has resulted in a small reduction in male labor force participation. Moreover, the inclusion of food stamps as an intervention component is quite useful in forecasting the male participation rate. The forecasting accuracy of univariate and multivariate models is assessed with the result that, in every instance, the multivariate transfer functions prove superior. Overall, the results support the incorporation of multiple time-series in econometric studies of developing countries and provide evidence of its usefullness for development planning and policy.     

Engines of growth. Innovation and productivity in industry groups

The diversity of technological activities that contribute to growth in labour productivity is examined in this article for manufacturing and services industries in eight major EU countries. We test the relevance of two “engines of growth”, i.e., the strategies of technological competitiveness (based on innovation in products and markets) and cost competitiveness (relying on innovation in processes and machinery) and their impact on economic performance. We propose models for the determinants of changes in labour productivity and we carry out empirical tests for both the whole economy and for the four Revised Pavitt classes that group manufacturing and services industries with distinct patterns of innovation. Tests are carried out by pooling industries, countries and three time periods, using innovation survey data from CIS 2, 3 and 4, linked to economic variables. The results confirm the specificity of the two “engines of growth”; economic performances in European industries appear as the result of different innovation models, with strong specificities of the four Revised Pavitt classes.     

我国劳动力市场供求波动分析

我国劳动年龄人口将在“十二五”时期达到最高峰.庞大的劳动力供给将给就业造成非常大的压力,就业的结构性矛盾将进一步加剧,劳动力供求的变化趋势和结构性矛盾呈现出新的特点.本文通过分析2001年第一季度到2010年第四季度我国劳动力市场供求变化信息,结合同时期经济波动情况,分析劳动力供求的变动特征,以期为我国现阶段解决失业问题提供有益的政策建议.     

A theoretical analysis of institutional investors' trading costs in auction and dealer markets

This paper compares trading costs for institutional investors subject to liquidity shocks, in auction and dealer markets. The batch auction restricts the institutions' ability to exploit informational advantages because of competition between institutions when they simultaneously submit orders. This competition lowers aggregate trading costs. In the dealership market, competition between traders is absent but private information is revealed by observing the flow of successive orders and so reduces aggregate trading costs. We analyse the relative effects on trading costs of competition and information revelation in the two systems and derive a parameter inequality which determines which system has lower costs.     

History-based price discrimination and entry in markets with switching costs: A welfare analysis

We analyze history-based price discrimination in an asymmetric industry, where an incumbent, protected by switching costs, faces an entrant who does not have access to information about consumers’ purchase histories. We demonstrate that consumer surplus is higher with uniform pricing than with history-based price discrimination. We find that the entry decision is invariant to whether the incumbent implements history-based pricing or uniform pricing. This implies that the potential abuse of market dominance imposed by history-based price discrimination is exploitation, not exclusion. Finally, we establish that the profit gain to the incumbent from history-based pricing exceeds the associated loss to consumers.     

An experimental analysis of cooperation and productivity in the trust game

In the standard trust game the surplus is increased by the risk taking first mover while cooperation by the second mover is a one-to-one transfer. This paper reports results from experiments in which the reverse holds; the first mover’s risky trust is not productive and the second mover’s cooperation is productive. This subtle difference significantly lowers the likelihood of trust but increases the likelihood of cooperation conditional on trust. Evidence is presented that the change in trust is consistent with first movers failing to anticipate the later result. Drawing upon the analogy that the trust game represents a model of exchange, the results suggest that markets should be organized so that the buyer moves first and not the seller as in the original trust game.

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The network of networks: Localized technological change in telecommunications and productivity growth

Radical innovations in the usage of telecommunication services have drastically changed the role of telecommunications in the economy. Today the usage of telecommunications services is associated with the opportunity to extract significant quasi-rents. An empirical analysis of the Italian case in the mid-eighties confirms the significant difference between telecommunications cost share and marginal productivity levels. The opportunity to reap transient quasi-rents has in turn pushed users to innovate so as to become major players in the arena of technological change in telecommunications and information technologies. In this context the notion of network of networks, implemented in the European Union, seems most appropriate to push the dynamic efficiency of the system and accommodate both centrifugal and centripetal innovations, yet also to retain network interoperability and interconnectivity.     

国际R&D溢出与生产率增长——基于APEC视角的动态面板数据分析

本文从服务贸易进口、FDI流入和生产率积聚效应等方面扩展了CH模型,并以APEC成员作为研究对象,运用动态面板数据模型和脉冲响应函教研究了全要素生产率、技术效率和技术进步的动态变化规律,得出了全要素生产率、技术效率和技术进步存在显著的积聚效应;本国R&D资本存量有助于提升技术效率,但是能否促进技术进步刖依赖于R&D投入强度;和通过服务贸易渠道获得的国际R&D溢出对全要素生产率和技术进步均有显著的促进作用等三个一般性结论.     

Vintage capital,market structure and productivity in an evolutionary model of industry growth

This paper examines the effects of inter-firm variation in vintage equipment replacement policies on industry productivity and structure using an evolutionary model based on Nelson-Winter. Traditional industry productivity measures assume a graduated replacement policy with low variation across firms in the average age of the capital stock. This approach allows for inter-firm policy variation. The first part reviews the neoclassical treatment of vintage capital investment; the second part outlines an evolutionary model of vintage replacement in the context of industry growth; and the third part presents results of simulation experiments focused on the relationship between vintage replacement patterns and industry productivity growth. Findings suggest that inter-firm differences in vintage capital investment policies may account for significant shifts in the rates of industry productivity growth and changes in market structure.     

A cost function analysis of import demand and growth in South Africa

This study investigates the substitutability relationships among capital, labor, and imported inputs for South Africa, utilizing the estimates obtained from an aggregate cost function. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that capital is a substitute for both domestic labor and imports, but that labor and imports are complementary inputs. This latter result suggests that relaxing South African trade restrictions may have a positive impact, in both the long and the short run, on the demand for domestic labor. Other results suggest that the reduction of market impediments may also positively impact the production of investment goods and economic growth.     

A spatial econometric analysis of the regional growth and volatility in Europe

Based on a sample of 1,084 European regions (EU15) from 1995 to 2004, we estimate the relationship between the average growth rate of GDP per capita and the volatility of the growth rate allowing for spatial effects. The spatial lag and spatial error models show that the regional per capita growth rate and volatility are significantly positively related on average. However, the inclusion of country interaction terms reveals that the volatility impact is not uniform across countries. In particular, the relationship between growth and volatility is significantly positive for the majority of countries but significantly negative for three countries (namely Finland, Italy, and Ireland).

Entry and exit as a source of aggregate productivity growth in two alternative technological regimes

This paper proposes a neo-Schumpeterian model in order to discuss how the mechanisms of entry and exit contribute to industry productivity growth in alternative technological regimes. Our central hypothesis is that new firms generate gains in aggregate productivity by increasing both the productivity level and competition intensity. By assuming that firms learn about the relevant technology through a variety of sources, and by allowing a continuous flow of entry and exit into the market, our study shows that firm exit and output contraction take mostly place among less productive firms, while output expansion and entry are concentrated among the more efficient ones. The greater is the competitive pressure generated by new entrants, the higher is the expected productivity level of established firms. Overall, our analysis suggests that micro analysis is the proper complement to aggregate industry studies, as it provides a considerable insight into the causes of productivity growth.