What can we learn about the market reaction to macroeconomic surprise? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

We investigate the impact of macroeconomic surprise and uncertainty on G7 financial markets around COVID-19 pandemic using two real-time, real-activity indexes recently constructed by Scotti (2016). We applies the wavelet analysis to detect the response of the stock markets to the macroeconomic surprise and an uncertainty indexes and then we use NARDL model to examine the asymmetric effect of the news surprise and uncertainty on the equity markets. We conduct our empirical analysis with the daily data from January, 2014 to September, 2020. Our findings indicate that G7 stock markets are sensitive to the macroeconomic surprise and uncertainty and the effect is more pronounced at the long term than the short term. Moreover, we show that the COVID-19 crisis supports the relationship between the macroeconomic indexes and the stock prices. The results are useful for investment decision-making for the investors on the G7 stock indices at different investment horizons.     

Economic uncertainty and the influence of monetary policy

This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We use several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction with monetary policy shocks as identified through structural vector autoregressions. We find that U.S. monetary policy shocks affect economic activity less when uncertainty is high, in line with “real-option” effects from theory. Holding uncertainty constant, the effect on investment is approximately halved when uncertainty is in its top instead of its bottom decile.     

Does personal experience with COVID-19 impact investment decisions? Evidence from a survey of US retail investors

This paper explores the link between personal experience with COVID-19 and US retail investors’ financial decision-making during the first COVID-19 wave. Do retail investors that have personally experienced COVID-19 change their investments after the pandemic outbreak, and if so, why? We use a cross-sectional dataset from an online survey of US retail investors collected in July and August 2020 to assess if and how respondents change their investment decisions after the COVID-19 outbreak. On average retail investors increase their investments during the first wave of COVID-19 by 4.7%, while many of them decrease their investments suggesting a high heterogeneity of investor behaviours. We provide the first evidence that personal experience with the virus can have unexpected positive effects on retail investments. Investors who have personal experience with COVID-19, who are in a vulnerable health category, who tested positive, and who know someone in their close circle of friends or family who died because of COVID-19, increase their investments by 12%. We explain our findings through terror management theory, salience theory and optimism bias, suggesting that reminders of mortality, focussing on selective salient investment information, and over-optimism despite personal vulnerable health contribute to the increase in retail investments. Increased levels of savings, saving goals and risk capacity are also positively associated with increased investments. Our findings are relevant to investors, regulators, and financial advisors, and highlight the importance of providing retail investors with access to investment opportunities in periods of unprecedented shocks such as COVID-19.     

Could COVID-19 Infect the Consumer Prices Index?*

The spread of COVID-19 has led to sweeping changes in the way households work, spend their time and shop, resulting in different shopping patterns and rapid price changes in some goods. How will changes such as these be reflected in headline inflation measures such as the Consumer Prices Index (CPI)? This paper discusses problems in interpreting the CPI as a measure of how the cost of living is changing during the lockdown.     

新冠肺炎疫情对居民消费的影响及对策

2020年春节期间,湖北省武汉市爆发的由新型冠状病毒感染引起的肺炎疫情正在对中国经济和消费带来负向冲击。从逻辑上看,除了直接限制消费外,疫情还会通过收入效应、财富效应、实际购买力效应对消费形成不利影响。从历史上看,十七年前的非典疫情对经济和消费的影响是短期的,但此次疫情影响更大,持续期存在不确定性。稳定消费的关键是稳定居民收入,要稳定居民收入就需要稳定非农产业就业。基于分析,本文提出了一揽子政策建议。     

我国商业银行知识产权保护现状与对策--从\"九州卡\"商标侵权案谈起

随着我国加入世贸组织时承诺的金融业保护期限的迫近,国内商业银行知识产权保护问题愈发显得刻不容缓。本文以最近发生的淮安市商业银行诉烟台恒丰银行“九州卡”商标侵权案入手,对我国商业银行在国际化背景下知识产权保护的现状及存在的问题加以简要评析,并提出商业银行知识产权保护体系的构建对策,以期有助于我国商业银行在日趋激烈的金融竞争中立于不败之地,并获得更大的发展。     

Interactions Between Property and Equity Markets: An Investigation of Linkages in the United Kingdom 1972–1992

Two strands of real estate research—that concerned with the relationships between securitized real estate and the underlying market and that dealing with the role of property in the wider economy—rarely are considered together. The paper utilizes the U.K. equity market and property company share data to explore the relationships between real estate and the rest of the economy, using a two-sector analytic model. Causality analysis suggests that the wider economy leads the real estate market in the short term but that, with a longer lag structure, positive real estate returns may point to negative future returns in the rest of the economy. This provides weak confirmatory evidence for theories of capital switching between sectors.     

Too transparent for signalling? A global analysis of bond issues by property companies

Bond issues often result in negative revaluations of the market value of equity. These market reactions are usually explained by negative signals and asymmetric information about the use of the proceeds. In industries with rather transparent investment opportunities these arguments are not applicable and we expect to find no negative revaluations. Consequently, analysing the stock price reactions to 2299 bond issues by real estate companies between 1996 and 2019, we observe none to positive reactions on the announcement of an upcoming bond issue. The findings underpin the necessity for controlling of industry effects in empirical studies on capital structure decisions.     

金融服务乡村振兴的障碍与破解机制

2019年底突发新冠肺炎疫情。在持续性疫情的影响下,我国各产业都受到了不同程度的影响。为分析各产业经济受疫情影响程度,本文构建基于协方差矩阵的精准选择模型,分析高频次特性股票数据与疫情发展数据的相关性,该模型解决经济变量存在内在关联的问题以及数据不稳定和不一致的特性带来的统计误差。根据模型检验得出服务业、房地产业和农业受疫情影响相对较大的结论,在此基础上本文进一步剖析相关产业所受疫情影响的深层次原因,并从宏观和中观维度提出有效应对的政策建议。     

基础设施REITs发展的国际经验及借鉴

REITs包括基础设施REITs都是在经济亟需刺激政策的背景下,各国政府为了实现经济政策目标而推出的,部分市场甚至由政府直接推动首批REITs上市。从国际市场发展现状看,主要的基础设施REITs市场都实现了良性循环,资本市场为基础设施融资和发展提供了强有力支持。从国际经验看,REITs立法的逻辑起点可以分为两大类,一类是将REITs定位成传递工具,一类是将REITs定位成集合投资工具,对应的免税政策也分别有两种不同逻辑。为促进基础设施REITs有序发展,兼顾投融资双方利益,本文提出了相应的法规政策原则和具体建议,包括如何处理好R E I T s法规与其他法规的关系,金融监管部门和其他政府部门的关系,发行人和投资者的关系,如何充分利用现有的金融市场法规和金融市场结构,以及会计准则调整和投资者保护等。本文还分析了资本弱化结构,建议在公募REITs中予以细化规定。