Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19

The profound impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on global tourism activity has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun to seek the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism from the devastating effects of COVID-19. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined to forecast the possible paths to tourism recovery in Hong Kong. The autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model was used to generate baseline forecasts, and Delphi adjustments based on different recovery scenarios were performed to reflect different levels of severity in terms of the pandemic's influence. These forecasts were also used to evaluate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry in Hong Kong.     

COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy

The pandemic COVID-19 has severely impacted upon the world economy, devastating the tourism industry globally. This paper estimates the short-run economic impacts of the inbound tourism industry on the Australian economy during the pandemic. The analysis covers effects both at the macroeconomic as well as at the industry and occupation level, from direct contribution (using tourism satellite accounts) to economy-wide effects (using the computable general equilibrium modelling technique). Findings show that the pandemic affects a range of industries and occupations that are beyond the tourism sector. The paper calls for strong support from the government on tourism as the recovery of tourism can deliver spillover benefits for other sectors and across the whole spectrum of occupations in the labour market.     

Impacts of COVID-19 on Chinese nationals' tourism preferences

This paper examines the impacts of COVID-19 on Chinese nationals' tourism preferences. Employing a mixed-method research design, two rounds of nation-wide online surveys were conducted, one in February 2020 when COVID-19 cases started to peak in China and another one in June 2020 when COVID-19 was a global pandemic; both survey studies were accompanied with semi-structured in-depth interviews and altogether 37 interviews were conducted in two stages. Based on both quantitative survey data and qualitative interview data, the research identified that: 1) COVID-19 significantly reduced Chinese nationals' preferences to travel to countries with high infection numbers, and geographically faraway, administratively and culturally distant outbound destinations; 2) Chinese nationals reduced their preferences in all travel modes and most of the tourism forms, but most of them would prefer nature-based, rural, and cultural destinations after COVID-19; and 3) shortened trips in short travel distance are preferred after COVID-19. The findings offer rich insights and practical implications for governments, industry organisations, and tourism operators to formulate tourism recovery strategies toward Chinese tourists.     

Mental health rescue effects of women's outdoor tourism: A role in COVID-19 recovery

Mental and social health outcomes from a portfolio of women's outdoor tourism products, with ~100,000 clients, are analysed using a catalysed netnography of >1000 social media posts. Entirely novel outcomes include: psychological rescue; recognition of a previously missing life component, and flow-on effects to family members. Outcomes reported previously for extreme sports, but not previously for hiking in nature, include psychological transformation. Outcomes also identified previously include: happiness, gratitude, relaxation, clarity and insights, nature appreciation, challenge and capability, and companionship and community effects. Commercial outdoor tourism enterprises can contribute powerfully to the wellbeing of women and families. This will be especially valuable for mental health recovery, following deterioration during COVID-19 coronavirus lockdowns worldwide.     

Social costs of tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is currently spreading across the world at an alarming rate, resulting in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Amidst this crisis, tourism scholars are directing their attention to communities at tourist destinations, looking at their safety and well-being and the costs that they will bear due to the cessation of tourism activity. This article describes residents' perceptions of the risks posed by tourism activity, and estimates their willingness to pay to reduce public health risks based on hypothetical scenarios, using the triple-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method. The social costs in three urban destinations are assessed and compared. Based on the findings, suggestions are made for appropriate post-pandemic recovery actions by local authorities and tourism organizations.     

新冠肺炎疫情对中国旅游业的影响及其应对探讨

新冠肺炎疫情给全球旅游业带来了巨大的冲击和挑战,深入探讨疫情对旅游业的影响及应对成为各界关注的重点。本文从居民出游意愿、场所空间容量、市场经营主体、旅游政策等供需关系方面分析了新冠肺炎疫情对中国旅游业的影响。研究表明：（1）疫情对居民出游消费信心、意愿和能力造成较大影响,但潜在出游需求仍然存在。（2）疫情对旅游地空间环境造成较大物理和心理压缩,与旅游关联紧密的文化产业、娱乐业的生产空间容量也受到了间接影响。（3）疫情对旅游产业链、旅游市场主体经营等方面造成了全面且深远的影响。（4）疫情防控常态化下旅游政策供给以“流动管制”和“行业纾困”并重为主。面对疫情的持续影响,建议着重从组织响应、空间响应和企业韧性3个方面进一步强化旅游业应对能力,即：完善业外支撑、业内驱动、业界保障的三位一体组织响应体系;构建旅游目的地（点）-连结（线）-网络结构（网络）的三级协同空间响应机制;从企业组织、产品服务、管理和营销、市场品牌、员工心理等5个方面加强旅游企业韧性建设,以增强中国旅游业恢复发展能力。     

The post-COVID-19 tourism recovery led by crisis-resistant tourists: Surf tourism preferences in the Canary Islands

The post-COVID-19 tourism recovery is most likely to be led by crisis-resistant tourists (Hajibaba, Gretzel, Leisch and Dolnicar, 2015). The surf tourism market is highly crisis resistant (Dolnicar and Fluker, 2003a) and has potential to expand during the pandemic (Mach and Ponting, 2021), especially with the advances in technologies for remote workers. In an attempt to answer Hritz and Franzidis' (2018) call for further research on this niche market in order to ascertain the significance of surf tourism in a particular community, we provide a baseline for surf tourism in terms of these niche preferences and satisfaction levels in Gran Canaria (Spain). The study is based on a discrete choice model that relies on preferences elicited through best-worst scaling methods. Our research demonstrates that the BWS scores can be used to develop a destination attribute quality index based on importance and satisfaction scales and provides important information to destination managers.     

Impacts of COVID-19 on global tourism industry: A cross-regional comparison

The tourism industry was one of the world's greatest markets; until the world met a pandemic in the 21st century, COVID-19. This study aims to present the reactions of travelers during the pandemic trends outlined by adopting text mining techniques. Between December 30, 2019–March 15, 2020, approximately 75,000 comments are retrieved from the TripAdvisor forums, and 23,515 cases from the US, Europe, and Asia forums are employed for analyses.The results reveal that the tourism sector is easily affected by global crises. It is almost the same day that travelers decide to cancel or delay their trips, with the spread of the news. More in-depth analyses uncovered several topics consisted of comments on benefiting from travel insurance and refund due to the travel cancellations. Travel insurance has become a hot topic, which may be a way of reanimating the industry by offering travel packages, including travel insurance services.     

#CoronavirusCruise: Impact and implications of the COVID-19 outbreaks on the perception of cruise tourism

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Diamond Princess became the center of the largest outbreak outside the original epicenter in China. This outbreak which left 712 passengers infected and 14 dead, followed by subsequent outbreaks affecting over one-third of the active ships in the cruise industry's global fleet, quickly became a crisis that captured public attention and dominated mainstream news and social media. This study investigates the perception of cruising during these outbreaks by analyzing the tweets on cruising using Natural Language Processing (NLP). The findings show a prevalent negative sentiment in most of the analyzed tweets, while the criticisms directed at the cruise industry were based on perceptions and stereotypes of the industry before the pandemic. The study provides insight into the concerns raised in these conversations and highlights the need for new business models outside the pre-pandemic mass-market model and to genuinely make cruising more environmentally friendly.     

The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on domestic tourism: A DEMATEL method analysis on quarantine decisions

Countries' most effective methods to reduce the impact of outbreaks are quarantine the regions during the pandemic periods. Quarantine decisions during a pandemic directly affect the hospitality industry. There is no universal guideline regarding the quarantine decision during a pandemic. There is a gap in the literature on making the right quarantine decisions to decrease the negative effect of a pandemic on the hospitality industry. To fill this gap, this study uses a decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method to help countries for quarantine decisions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the critical hospitality industry indicators is the inter-regional travel flow between regions for local tourism. Data from the household domestic tourism survey obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) is used to acquire the number of people entering and exiting among regions. This study's findings indicate that Istanbul has an essential impact on Turkey's rest. The results also demonstrate that the DEMATEL method provides convenient solutions for quarantine decisions during a pandemic. The DEMATEL application results concerning the COVID-19 pandemic effect might shed light on the hospitality industry’s prospects and challenges. This study's findings might be adopted to prepare the hospitality industry for the COVID-19 pandemic and similar pandemic.     

Career resilience of the tourism and hospitality workforce in the COVID-19: The protection motivation theory perspective

By applying the protection motivation theory, the study aims to investigate factors influencing tourism and hospitality (T&H) workers' career resilience when faced with health-related risks at work during a pandemic. Data were collected from 495 part-time and full-time employees in the Vietnamese tourism and hospitality sector. The study found that workers' perceived vulnerability and perceived severity of the pandemic were positively associated with career resilience. Perceived severity was positively related to self-efficacy and response efficacy, while perceived vulnerability was positively associated with self-efficacy only. Both self-efficacy and response efficacy positively influenced career resilience through the mediating role of health risk preventative behavior. Theoretically, the study advances the stream of research in resilience in general and career resilience in particular among T&H workers when faced with a health-related crisis. Practical implications are provided with recommendations on how to facilitate career resilience among T&H employees working in the current high-risk environment.     

A review of early COVID-19 research in tourism: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research's Curated Collection on coronavirus and tourism

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unparalleled impacts to the global tourism industry, thus inspiring a wave of academic research. This paper presents a review of the early literature on COVID-19 and tourism, representing 249 papers. The analysis revealed five key themes: (1) psychological effects and behavior; (2) responses, strategies, and resilience; (3) sustainable futures; (4) impact monitoring, valuation, and forecasting; and (5) technology adoption. However, this research also raises questions about theoretical contribution, methodologies, and future research potential. This article also launches the Annals of Tourism Research's Curated Collection on coronavirus and tourism. The Collection contains all past articles published in Annals of Tourism Research on the topic and will continue to grow as new articles are added.     

Hospitality and tourism industry amid COVID-19 pandemic: Perspectives on challenges and learnings from India

COVID-19 outbreak has presented unprecedented circumstances before the fragile tourism and hospitality industry. The highly infectious novel coronavirus continues to thwart the sector and raises serious questions about the present and future survival of the sector. The research addresses two important concerns, first, pertains to the major challenges that hospitality and tourism industry faces amid current conditions; and second relates to the vital learnings for the industry. The study draws on the interviews with 15 participants in senior positions in hospitality industry, and tourism and hospitality education services. Responses to the interviews were content analysed, which resulted in 27 sub-themes that were further condensed into 4 major themes. The dominant sub-themes that emerged out of the qualitative enquiry included need of multiskilling and professional development of the employees, increased sense of hygiene, sanitation and related SOPs, optimism toward revival of the industry, media roles, and need of better crisis preparedness. Subsequent overarching themes included “Human Resource Management”, “Health and Hygiene”, “Continuity” and “Concerns”. The study critically discusses prominent themes in the light of the existing arguments from the literature and reflects on implications for the decision makers. The major implications of the study are in the form of determined themes adding to the evolving theory on COVID-19 pandemic and tourism & hospitality industry; and managerial recommendations to address host of issues while taking essential learnings stemming from the current circumstances. Limitations and scope of future research are also discussed.     

The spatial and temporal resilience of the tourism and outdoor recreation industries in the United States throughout the COVID-19 pandemic

Accurately quantifying industry resilience is essential to devising effective recovery strategies. Previous research into industry resilience has either quantified the concept with single metrics aggregated across large geographies (e.g., visitation) or used metrics comparing the relative concentration of an industry within a region to the national average (e.g., location quotients). The former set of metrics prohibits spatially targeted recovery efforts while the latter fails during national crises. We propose the measurement of tourism and outdoor recreation industry resilience to COVID-19 based on growth rates in employment, wages, and establishments using publicly accessible time-series data on all counties in the United States. We use these indicators to characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of industry resilience across the country. The indicators can serve as a useful reference for diagnosing and monitoring industry resilience as well as developing targeted policies, programs, and promotion efforts that facilitate more localized response efforts.