质量随机的研发竞赛模型与最优奖励

假设研发质量具有随机性,建立了研发竞赛的非合作博弈模型,分别探讨了完全信息和不完全信息条件下竞赛参与人与竞赛发起者的最优策略。研究发现：竞赛参与人的研发投入水平在完全信息和不完全信息条件下都随自身研发效率的降低而降低;研发参与人的类型信息不完全程度越高,参与人的均衡研发投入越低;在每一种信息类型组合下都存在着最优奖励使得竞赛发起者的期望收益最大。     

Tullock and Hirshleifer: a meeting of the minds

We introduce the serial contest by building on the desirable properties of two prominent contest games. This family of contest games relies both on relative efforts (as Tullock’s proposal) and on absolute effort differences (as difference-form contests). An additional desirable feature is that the serial contest is homogeneous of degree zero in contestants’ efforts. The family is characterized by a parameter representing how sensitive the outcome is to contestants’ efforts. It encompasses as polar cases the (fair) lottery and the (deterministic) all-pay auction. Equilibria have a close relationship to those of the (deterministic) all-pay auction and important properties of the latter hold for the serial contest, too.      

Changes in risk and strategic interaction

In this paper we study the comparative statics of Nth degree stochastic dominance shifts in a large class of non-cooperative games. We consider symmetric equilibria as well as asymmetric equilibria in which the risk changes are idiosyncratic and not necessarily of the same stochastic order. Furthermore, we establish conditions for risk changes to produce multiplier effects on equilibrium strategies. Finally, we evaluate the comparative statics of stochastic dominance shifts in supermodular games, which may feature multiple equilibria and non-convex strategy sets.     

Subgame-perfect equilibria in stochastic timing games

We develop a notion of subgames and the related notion of subgame-perfect equilibrium – possibly in mixed strategies – for stochastic timing games. To capture all situations that can arise in continuous-time models, it is necessary to consider stopping times as the starting dates of subgames. We generalize Fudenberg and Tirole’s (Rev. Econom. Stud. 52, 383–401, 1985) mixed-strategy extensions to make them applicable to stochastic timing games and thereby provide a sound basis for subgame-perfect equilibria of preemption games. Sufficient conditions for equilibrium existence are presented, and examples illustrate their application as well as the fact that intuitive arguments can break down in the presence of stochastic processes with jumps.     

Behavioral equilibrium and evolutionary dynamics in asset markets

This paper analyzes a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model of an asset market based on behavioral and evolutionary principles. The core of the model is a non-traditional game-theoretic framework combining elements of stochastic dynamic games and evolutionary game theory. Its key characteristic feature is that it relies only on objectively observable market data and does not use hidden individual agents’ characteristics (such as their utilities and beliefs). A central goal of the study is to identify an investment strategy that allows an investor to survive in the market selection process, i.e., to keep with probability one a strictly positive, bounded away from zero share of market wealth over an infinite time horizon, irrespective of the strategies used by the other players. The main results show that under very general assumptions, such a strategy exists, is asymptotically unique and easily computable.     

Evolutionary stability of altruism and envy in Tullock contests

This paper considers Tullock contests with altruistic and envious individuals as players. Altruism (envy) is beheld as another motivation for low (high) dissipation rates in contests. A pure population of altruists has higher payoffs than a purely envious population, but the altruist has a lower payoff if he is confronted with an envious individual. In an evolutionary approach in which the population share of the type with the higher material payoff rises, it can be shown that there is a possibility of either envy or altruism becoming extinct. Furthermore, we find an advantage of envy in such a manner that very altruistic individuals always die out, but very envious ones only do so under certain conditions. I am grateful to Alexander Haupt, two anonymous referees, and the editor for constructive comments on this paper.     

对新时期企业开展劳动竞赛的认识和思考

随着经济改革的不断深入,为了适应激烈的市场竞争,需要给予劳动竞赛高度重视。本文通过阐述企业进行劳动竞赛应找准两个定位和特点,提出创新的途径,进而在新的历史条件下,为企业组织开展劳动竞赛提供参考依据。     

On measures of technical inefficiency and production uncertainty in stochastic frontier production model with correlated error components

Analysis of the behavior of technical inefficiency with respect to parameters and variables of a stochastic frontier model is a neglected area of research in frontier literature. An attempt in this direction, however, has recently been made. It has been shown that in a “standard” stochastic frontier model that both the firm level technical inefficiency and the production uncertainty are monotonically decreasing with observational error. In this paper we show, considering a stochastic frontier model whose error components are jointly distributed as truncated bivariate normal, that this property holds if and only if the distribution of observational error is negatively skewed. We also derive a necessary and sufficient condition under which both firm level technical inefficiency and production uncertainty are monotonically increasing with noise-inefficiency correlation. We next propose a new measure of the industry level production uncertainty and establish the necessary and sufficient condition for firm level technical inefficiency and production uncertainty to be monotonically increasing with industry level production uncertainty. We also study the limiting probabilistic behavior of these conditions under different parametric configuration of our model. Finally we carry out Monte Carlo simulations to study the sample behavior of the population monotonic property of the firm level technical inefficiency and production uncertainty in our model.

Personality and salary at early career: the mediating effect of emotional intelligence

Abstract

This paper examines the role of emotional intelligence (EI) as a mediator in the relationship between salary at early career and personality. The longitudinal data was collected from a selected sample of 130 university graduates, who were in the early stages of their professional careers. The results of a path analysis indicated that salary was indirectly predicted by personality traits, as measured by the Big Five model. Salary was predicted by neuroticism (both positively and negatively), extraversion (positively), and openness (positively) via the EI dimensions following the causal chain: perception, understanding and emotional regulation. Our findings have suggested the advantages of using EI measures as a complement to more dispositional measures, such as ability or personality measures, for personnel selection and people development in organizations and have provided real practice with clear suggestions for improving HRM.     

Production risk and the estimation of ex-ante cost functions

Cost function estimation under production uncertainty is problematic because the relevant cost is conditional on unobservable expected output. If input demand functions are also stochastic, then a nonlinear errors-in-variables model is obtained and standard estimation procedures typically fail to attain consistency. But by exploiting the full implications of the expected profit maximization hypothesis that gives rise to ex-ante cost functions, it is shown that the errors-in-variables problem can be effectively removed, and consistent estimation of the parameters of interest achieved. A Monte Carlo experiment illustrates the advantages of the proposed procedure as well as the pitfalls of other existing estimators.     

扎实有效地开展“小、实、活、新”的QC小组活动

柳州铁路局开展QC小组活动以来,取得了多项重要成果。本文介绍了他们开展QC小组活动的方法、经验和体会。     

Matching in local labor markets: a stochastic frontier approach

This paper investigates the technical efficiency of labor market matching from a stochastic frontier approach. The true fixed-effects model (Greene J Prod Anal 23:7–32, 2005a; J Econom 126:269–303, 2005b) is utilised in order to separate cross-sectional heterogeneity from inefficiency, and inefficiency terms are modelled following Battese and Coelli (Empir Econ 20:325–332, 1995). The data set consists of almost 17,000 observations from Local Labor Offices (LLOs) in Finland. According to the results, there are notable differences in matching efficiency between regions, and these differences contribute significantly to the number of filled vacancies. If all regions were as efficient as the most efficient one, the number of total matches per month would increase by over 23%. The heterogeneity of the job-seeker stock is an important determinant of matching efficiency: the weight of the composition of the job-seeker stock in the inefficiency terms is on average 85%.

On the possibility of extinction in a class of Markov processes in economics

We analyze the possibility of eventual extinction of a replenishable economic asset (natural resource or capital) whose stocks follow a stationary Markov process with zero as an absorbing state. In particular, the stochastic process of stocks is determined by a given sequence of i.i.d. random variables with bounded support and a positive-valued transition function that maps the current level of the stock and the current realization of the random variable to the next period’s stock. Such processes arise naturally in stochastic dynamic models of economic growth and exploitation of natural resources. Under a minimal set of assumptions, the paper identifies conditions for almost sure extinction from all initial stocks as well as conditions under which the stocks enter every neighborhood of zero infinitely often almost surely. Our results emphasize the crucial role played by the nature of the transition function under the worst realization of the random shock and clarifies the role of the “average” rate of growth in the context of extinction.     

Stochastic volatility with leverage: Fast and efficient likelihood inference

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models with leverage. Specifically, the paper shows how the often used Kim et al. [1998. Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models. Review of Economic Studies 65, 361–393] method that was developed for SV models without leverage can be extended to models with leverage. The approach relies on the novel idea of approximating the joint distribution of the outcome and volatility innovations by a suitably constructed ten-component mixture of bivariate normal distributions. The resulting posterior distribution is summarized by MCMC methods and the small approximation error in working with the mixture approximation is corrected by a reweighting procedure. The overall procedure is fast and highly efficient. We illustrate the ideas on daily returns of the Tokyo Stock Price Index. Finally, extensions of the method are described for superposition models (where the log-volatility is made up of a linear combination of heterogenous and independent autoregressions) and heavy-tailed error distributions (student and log-normal).     

Analytically pricing variance and volatility swaps under a Markov-modulated model with liquidity risks

This paper determines strike prices of discretely sampled variance/volatility swaps taking into account stochastic liquidity risks and the switching of economic conditions. We adopt nonlinear regime switching volatility to reflect how asset prices are affected by economic cycles, and market prices of assets are discounted according to the level of market liquidity. We then establish a risk-neutral measure under regime switching Esscher transform, so that analytical valuation of variance/volatility swaps can be completed based on the closed-form forward characteristic function. The limiting behavior of discretely sampled variance/volatility swaps is also considered through the investigation of pricing continuously sampled variance/volatility swaps. Finally, based on the results from numerical implementation, we confirm that the new model is very flexible in reflecting different influence associated with common real market observations.     

《前厅服务与管理》课程教学初探

通过对现行高职类高校中《前厅服务与管理》课程教学中存在的问题进行初步分析,提出前厅课程应当注重管理理论知识与技能的传授,课程教学增加前厅英语、前厅计算机软件应用、收银技能。探索出将课堂理论教学与前厅技能大赛相结合的新的教学方式。     

Exploring the moderating effect of gender in the relationship between individuals' aspirations and career success among engineers in Peru

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between career success and individual career aspirations for engineers, and to test whether this differs according to gender. The primary hypothesis in this research is that gender does make a significant difference.

Design/methodological/approach: The sample consists of 1011 engineers who graduated from a prestigious Peruvian college between 1998 and 2005. Female graduates constituted only 4% of the sample, which is similar to the national statistics for engineers in Peru during this period. The relationships were primarily tested using multiple regression and structural equation modelling analyses.

Findings: Findings show a positive relationship between individual career aspirations and career success for men, but not necessarily for women; this supports the hypothesis that gender moderates this relationship. Females seek more secure career orientation than their male counterparts. In addition, females have shown that their career success is more related to feminine themes such as achieving ‘work–family balance’. The findings are in line with previously published results in other countries in which female engineers have career orientations with a preference for a balance between work and family as well as work stability.

Research limitations/implications: The sample is limited to graduates from a single Peruvian college of engineering. Although the sample has similar demographic characteristic to a national population, a more heterogeneous sample is called for in a future research. Moreover, additional moderators should be incorporated, such as family background, residency (large urban cities vs. small villages) and perhaps other variables.

Practical implications: Results can help Human Resource Managers to design better career plans, which consider gender in defining policies for the attraction and retention of competent female engineers.     

Group size and collective action in a binary contribution game

We consider how group size affects the private provision of a public good with non-refundable binary contributions. A fixed amount of the good is provided if and only if the number of contributors reaches an exogenous threshold. The threshold, the group size, and the identical, non-refundable cost of contributing to the public good are common knowledge. Our focus is on the case in which the threshold is larger than one, so that teamwork is required to produce the public good. We show that both expected payoffs and the probability that the public good is obtained in the best symmetric equilibrium are decreasing in group size. We also characterize the limit outcome when group size converges to infinity and provide precise conditions under which the expected number of contributors is decreasing or increasing in group size for sufficiently large groups.     

内部审计的职能和作用

内部审计的职能和内部审计的作用本来一对"孪生兄弟",职能发挥得越充分就会使作用的效果越大,作用的不断加大又过来影响职能的进一步完善和改进。     

The impact of international experience on objective and subjective career success in early careers

There is an ongoing debate in the literature on the long-term impact of international work experience on future career success. In this longitudinal study based on university graduates, we compare expatriates (n = 159), repatriates (n = 395) and domestic employees (n = 2697) with regard to their objective and subjective career success during the first five years of their careers. Results from propensity score matching and ordinary least-squares regressions show that expatriates and repatriates have a higher objective career success in terms of monthly wages. We further find a higher subjective career success for expatriates and male repatriates.