Agency costs and business cycles

Summary. This paper develops a model with endogenous agency costs that is otherwise quite similar to the canonical real business cycle model. The traditional assumption in the literature is that these agency costs arise in the production of investment goods. In contrast, this paper assumes that these costs are all encompassing in the sense that they arise in the production of aggregate output. The paper explores both the importance of the investment vs. output assumption for business cycle dynamics, and the conditions under which these agency models can deliver amplification and/or persistence. The paper has two principal conclusions. First, in terms of amplification and propagation, the output model performs worse than does the investment model. This arises because a variable distortion in the investment market has more of an impact than a comparable distortion in the output market. Second, in this model with optimal consumption choice by entrepreneurs, there is a clear tension between amplification and persistence. Received: December 30, 1997; revised version: April 1, 1998     

Fluctuations in convex models of endogenous growth, II: Business cycle properties

Using ideas from the endogenous growth literature, we present a model of the endogenous determination of productivity growth based on individual worker decisions about human capital investment. We calibrate a version of the model to match long run growth facts from the US and study the business cycle properties of this model. This approach offers improvements along several dimensions over standard exogenous growth methodologies. Most importantly, our stochastic endogenous growth model generates much greater serial correlation in output growth and labor supply volatility relative to its real business cycle counterpart. We conclude that using the extra discipline of reproducing the trend productivity growth features of the data endogenously constitutes an important missing component from the real business cycle approach.     

中国城市招商引资的经验与教训

本文在对世界银行2003年中国城市投资环境评价报告及台湾地区电机电子同业公会连续4年对大陆主要城市投资环境与投资风险评价报告进行分析对比的基础上,对国内主要城市近年来的招商引资现状进行分析和概括,并对几个典型城市在招商引资方面的经验与教训进行研究,为武汉市改善招商引资环境提供可借鉴的思路.     

我国医药行业产业组织特征及产业政策效果评价研究

本文运用产业组织相关理论,对我国医药行业的产业组织特征及产业政策影响进行了较为系统的分析,并在此基础上,提出了提高我国医药行业产业竞争力的思路与对策.     

Auctions of licences and market structure

Summary. This paper studies sequential auctions of licences to participate in a symmetric market game. Assuming that the rate at which industry profits decrease with repeated entry is not too large, at the unique solution either a single firm preempts entry altogether or entry occurs in every stage, depending on the net benefit of complete preemption to an incumbent. If we relax the assumption, a third outcome can occur: two firms may coordinate their choices to avoid further entry. The analysis employs a new refinement of Nash equilibrium, the concept of recursively undominated equilibrium. Received: February 25, 2000; revised version: September 12, 2000     

商业集群的发展历史及产业集群打造

随着全球一体化进程的加快和越来越激烈的全球竞争,创建具有竞争力的产业集群是许多政府和企业的共同心愿。但产业集群作为商业集群的最高历史阶段,其打造并不是一挥而蹴的事情。商业集群的形成和转型具有客观规律性,从低级到高级商业集群分为：地理集群、市场集群、网络集群、创新集群和产业集群。商业集群每个发展阶段具有不同的特点和不同的形成条件,从低级到高级的转化与升级具有内在驱动机制,必须掌握这种内在驱动机制并努力满足相应条件,才有可能使商业集群顺利地形成、转型或升级,否则,欲速则不达。     

金融危机的积极作用与中国的机会

金融危机的影响具有负面与正面的双重性.人们较多地关注于此次金融危机的风险与挑战,而对其正面意义认识不足.本文在分析了金融危机在金融体系优化、产业结构调整、社保体系建立、国际关系再造等方面积极作用前提下,分两个方面讨论了金融危机中的发展机会.在金融方面,近年来经济与外汇储备的持续快速增长使我国具有了国际化发展的能力,而金融危机为我国金融业国际化发展提供了难得的机会.在制造方面,金融危机强化了我国制造中心的地位,促进了产业结构调整与产品体系升级,提供了国际化、规模化发展机会.     

The structural effect of cooperatives on price volatility in the European dairy sector

Theoretical models and empirical evidence suggest that high market shares of cooperatives can force investor-oriented firms to pay higher producer prices within a region. In the same vein, cooperatives may force investor-oriented firms to reduce price volatility. We use panel data from 27 European Union member states over the period 2001–2015 to investigate how the market share of cooperatives in a country affects milk price volatility. Our key finding is that a higher market share of cooperatives reduces price volatility at the national level. Volatility is influenced by a number of other variables, such as fluctuation in raw milk production, oil price volatility spillover and the number of dairy processors. Policymakers should consider that the promotion of cooperatives might positively affect price stability in the dairy sector.     

产业政策对商业模式创新的影响效应测评研究——以光伏和人工智能上市公司为例

产业政策是政府引导产业发展、调整产业结构失衡的重要工具,影响着企业商业模式创新水平。基于中国大陆A股82家光伏上市公司、52家人工智能上市公司数据,采用清晰集QCA方法,从选择水平、激励水平和介入水平3个维度探索产业政策与其它因素共同引致高/低层次商业模式创新的组合方式。结果表明,产业政策不同属性水平的作用路径不同;高层次和低层次商业模式创新路径并非简单的对称关系,也不是单一条件就能起决定性作用的,还需要依赖不同条件之间的组合;产业政策不同属性对商业模式创新的影响效应存在差异。最后,通过设定商业模式创新评价标准,为优化商业模式创新路径提供可行思路。     

面向定位策略的工业产品服务系统商业模式研究

在iPS2的相关研究中,商业模式是中心主题之一,当前iPS2商业模式相关研究存在重视需求一侧的价值交付而忽视供给一侧的价值结构的问题。提出了基于“结构-价值”两个维度进行综合定位的商业模式分类策略,以及3种最常见的商业模式形态,并使用e3-value对其获利性进行了分析,有助于iPS2商业模式的选择决策。     

Effects of European integration on Austria’s economy

High expectations were placed on the project of European economic integration and Austria’s participation in it. Economists had expected that the Single Market would provide a positive supply shock, i.e. rising productivity, resulting in more growth. The optimistic forecasts for neither the EU nor for Austria were borne out by actual economic trends. Economic growth as well as productivity growth decelerated, while unemployment increased. Monetary union was implemented with an economic policy framework, the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) that geared monetary policy only to price stability and at the same time prescribed restrictive fiscal policies. The SGP therefore reveals a deflationary bias. The existing literature on the effects of EU accession on the Austrian economy by design fails to account for the restrictive effects of the SGP. The paper presents simulation results allowing for supply shocks as well as demand shocks. The simulations are based on a medium‐sized macroeconometric model. The results indicate that recent studies overestimate the positive effects of European integration. A simulation of the restrictive demand‐side effects of the SGP, with the assumption that around half of the fall in public consumption growth in the Euro countries can be attributed to the SGP, produced significant negative growth effects. The net effect suggests a negative quarter percentage point p.a. during the period 1995–2004.     

The Financial Crisis and the Death (or Hegemony) of Development Economics

Development economics was the study of how to create the plumbing that would allow developing economies to become developed. The financial crisis leads us to question whether industrialized countries have the plumbing problem solved and thus leads us to question whether we need a development economics that is separate from macroeconomics. Indeed, it even leads us to question whether development economics should take as its goal the creation of the institutional plumbing that industrialized countries currently have. The consequence will be a blending of concerns that have been central in developing economies with the standard macro models. The blending can be seen as either the death of development economics or the hegemony of development economics.     

The Music Industry as a Vehicle for Economic Analysis

Student dissatisfaction with teaching of economics—particularly with macroeconomics—during the current financial crisis mirrors dissatisfaction that was expressed during the last big crisis, the Great Depression. Then and now, a good number of students have felt that their lectures bear little relation to the economic crisis raging outside the halls of academe. The economics profession seems unusual, when compared with some other professions, in complaints that the teaching is irrelevant to practical lives. There appear to be few complaints among physics students that their education does not prepare them for practical pursuits, such as engineering. But economics, particularly macroeconomics, is different from physics not because of the mode of teaching but because the subject matter is harder to conceptualize. Models have to be frequently discarded and fundamentally new ones have to be brought to bear to make them relevant to changed circumstances. Student dissatisfaction with economics, however, is, despite some vocal complaints, not intense overall, and enrollments are growing. Students mostly recognize that their teachers are struggling with the conceptual difficulties that are inherent in the field. Teachers can encourage such recognition and best serve their students if they refer regularly and respectfully to the history of economic thought, conveying the reasons for the theoretical constructs of other times and the tentativeness of current theories.     

On the Geometry of Constant Returns

Imports are modeled as a fixed proportion of spending rather than as a function of total or disposable income. With this formulation, the import component of spending shifts must be netted out in order to predict the initial autonomous change in domestic spending. In addition, the formulation should provide a clearer understanding than current formulations of how leakages influence the multiplier process.     

Undergraduate Economics Education in English and Welsh Universities

A professor experienced in both the United Kingdom's and the United States' educational systems, the author describes and compares the two countries' economic education objectives and practices.     

知识密集型服务业集聚、高技术制造业集聚及二者协同集聚的创新驱动效应

知识密集型服务业集聚、高技术制造业集聚及二者协同集聚能够促进创新进而驱动经济增长与绿色发展。运用中介效应分析方法实证检验了3种类型集聚在经济增长、绿色发展方面的创新驱动效应水平差异,结果表明：知识密集型服务业集聚能够驱动经济发展,对绿色发展的正向驱动作用不显著,创新在其集聚驱动经济增长、绿色发展的过程中未表现出显著的中介效应;高技术制造业集聚能够驱动经济发展与绿色发展,创新在此过程中的中介效应显著;相比单个产业集聚,二者协同集聚对经济发展与绿色发展具有更强的正向驱动作用,创新在此过程中的中介效应也更显著。基于上述结论,提出加快创新驱动发展的3项政策建议。     

中国银行卡产业的市场结构与价格行为研究

按照产业组织理论的市场结构(S)--市场行为(C)--市场绩效(P)分析框架,本文以多个指标计算了中国银行卡产业的市场集中度,认为中国银行卡市场属于寡头垄断型市场.描述了银行在银行卡市场上的价格行为,分析其背后的原因及反映的趋势,发现银行卡价格调整表现出与斯威齐模型相反的特点.并对改进定价方式提出建议.