Socioeconomic Context,Family Regimes,and Women's Early Labor Market Experience: The Case of Colombia and Venezuela

This paper compares the early labor market experience of mature and young cohorts of women in Bogotá and Caracas. The cross-country, cross-cohort comparisons demonstrate the importance of both rising women's human capital and family regimes to women's labor market behavior. While divorce was a central stimulus of women's work in both contexts, the more stable, patriarchal family regime in Bogotá more strongly conflicted with employment than the matrifocal and flexible pattern in Caracas. Results also show important changes in the dynamics of female employment, as younger cohorts exhibit more intermittent and unstable employment patterns.     

Why Money Matters: A Fourth Natural Experiment

Milton Friedman (J Econ Perspect 19(4):145–150, 2005; Wall St J November 17, 2006:A20) compared the behavior of money supply, nominal income and stock prices in the United States during the course of the 1920s and early 1930s with behavior in two other historical episodes, Japan in the 1980s and early 1990s and the United States in the 1990s and early 2000s. The three episodes, he argued, provided a natural experiment to test his and Anna J. Schwartz’s explanation of the Great Depression of the 1930s. I use similar data for the U.S. recession that began in the fourth quarter of 2007 as a fourth such natural experiment. What makes this episode particularly interesting are the continuing comparisons between it and the Great Depression that have been made as events unfolded. The results are clear-cut. In the recent recession, like the U.S recessions at the start of this century and the Japanese recession in the 1990s, there were no severe monetary shocks of the sort experienced in the 1930s. This recession, again like the other two, has been very much milder, and very likely will prove very much shorter than the Great Depression. This, in turn, is exactly what the Friedman and Schwartz hypothesis predicts.     

Women hold up half the sky? Gender identity and the wife's labor market performance in China

In this paper, we empirically study the impact of gender identity on the wife's labor supply in China where a high female employment rate and a large population that has a traditional gender identity coexist. We find that the wife's gender identity affects her labor force participation for all cohorts, and the wife's gender identity affects earnings only for rural cohorts. The impact of gender identity varies among generational, regional, and educational cohorts. Husbands still guide their wives, i.e., a husband's gender identity affects his wife's labor force participation and earnings.     

Evidence on the Volunteer Labor Supply of Married Women

I estimate a significant, positive wage elasticity of married women's volunteer labor supply from 1975 to 1976 U.S. time diary data. Increases in the number of children in the household significantly raise participation rates but reduce volunteer hours. I find weak support for a sequential time allocation model of volunteering where the wage as the opportunity cost of time has only a second-order effect on volunteer hours. Increased hours of market work for married women decrease their volunteering. Cash and time donations are complements at the volunteer participation level but substitutes in terms of married women's volunteer hours.     

What accounts for the decline in labor force participation among married women in urban China, 1991–2011?

Since the advent of Communist movement in the 1940s, women in China have been portrayed as equal partners to men in their labor force participation, operating under slogans such as “Women hold up half the sky”. Political rhetoric in the Mao era suggested that gender parity could be attained through women's participation in paid employment and full time work outside the home became routine for most urban women. Subsequent to the reforms, however, China has experienced a sharp decline in urban women's labor force participation. Utilizing micro-level data spanning from 1991 to 2011, individual women's labor force decisions are analyzed in order to identify the reasons for the decline. Changes in covariates explain only a small portion of the observed decline. However, over the study interval the wage returns to education increased markedly, and the distribution of wages widened considerably. These factors, combined with a high wage elasticity of participation, are consistent with the pattern of declining labor force participation found in the data. As such, promotion of women's education, particularly at the upper secondary level and beyond, could be expected to offset the downward trend.     

A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States

Cointegration methods suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to U.S. time-series data on age-specific fertility rates, female labor force participation rates, women's wages, unemployment rates and educational attainment, and male relative incomes. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of two cointegrating relations that are identified as a fertility equation and a labor supply equation, respectively. Estimated long-run relations are consistent with economic models of fertility and female labor market behavior, and these results are robust across both age-groups and several alternative model specifications.     

Norway's recovery from the Great Depression – an act of balancing?

Abstract

This paper addresses the question of how Norway recovered from the Great Depression and tries to show that a monocausal Schumpeterian explanation is flawed. Three elements of such an explanation are being discussed and dismissed: the shift in employment structure; the spread of electric power; and the changes in household consumption. The paper comes to a more balanced conclusion. Mainly for chronological reasons, supply-side factors can't independently explain the recovery. Not before 1934–35, when recovery had been underway for roughly two years, did supply-side factors start to have a real impact. Only by viewing these forces in interaction with the demand side, in particular export demand generating an investment boom, can a more plausible explanation of Norway's recovery from the Great Depression be presented.     

Effects of New Deal Spending and the downturns of the 1930s on private labor markets in 1939/1940

Gross Domestic Product recovered much more quickly than labor markets did during the 1930s. We provide new analysis of this issue by estimating a cross-sectional model for individuals in 1939–1940 as a function of the measures of the Great Contraction of 1929–1933, the recovery, and the Second Dip Recession and average information for three types of New Deal spending. The results show that the Great Contraction of 1929–1933 and the Second-Dip Recession still had powerful negative effects on county labor markets in 1939/1940 and these were only partially offset by public works grants. Relief grants had somewhat negative effects although this might have arisen because of a large layoff of workers by the WPA in 1939. The AAA payments to farmers to take land out of production were associated with lower earnings and private employment, but had mixed effects on skill mobility.     

A cohort analysis of male labor supply in Japan

This study uses repeated cross-sectional data from 1982 to 2007 to understand labor force behavior of men in Japan, focusing on the increase in non-regular employment. I find that regular employment fell significantly for recent cohorts of less-educated men. Regular employment of single men and less-educated married men responded more to the business cycle than did regular employment of highly educated married men. Cohorts who finished their schooling in the late 1990s and early 2000s experienced a severe decline in regular employment at young ages, although this phenomenon was mainly observed among single men and not among married men.     

The U.S. Postal Savings System and the collapse of building and loan associations during the Great Depression

Building and loan associations (B&Ls) financed over half of new houses constructed in the United States during the 1920s but they lost their predominance within the following decades as they were pushed to convert into Savings and Loans (S&Ls). This study examines whether the U.S. government-insured Postal Savings System attracted funds away from B&Ls precisely when they needed them the most in the Great Depression. Annual town- and county-level data from 1920 through 1935 for three states show that the sudden rise in local postal savings was associated with local downturns in B&Ls. Using a panel vector autoregression, we find that postal savings significantly reduced the amount of money in B&Ls, yet B&Ls had no significant effect on postal savings banks. Alternatively, postal savings had no significant effect on commercial banks. The results suggest that this competitive dynamic prevented B&Ls from rebounding in the mid-1930s and helped contributed to Great Depression's local real estate lending decline.     

Does a reduction in the length of the working week reduce unemployment? Some evidence from the Italian economy during the Great Depression

This paper studies the Italian labor market during the 1930s. Using monthly data on eight manufacturing sectors for the period 1929-1939, we evaluate the effects of the introduction, at the end of 1934, of the 40 h working week on the demand for labor. The results support the view that the reduction of the level of standard hours can be effective in stimulating employment provided that it does not imply an increase in hourly wage rates.     

Hours and Wages in the Depression: British Engineering, 1926–1938

On their intensive margins, firms in the British engineering industry adjusted to the severe falls in demand during the 1930s Depression by cutting hours of work. This provided an important means of reducing labor input and marginal labor costs through movements from overtime to short-time schedules. Nominal basic wage rates dropped relatively modestly while their real wage equivalents continued to rise throughout the trough years of the recession. This paper provides detailed labor market and empirical analysis of the hours and wage adjustment processes. Quantitative work is based on cell data from a panel of 28 local labor markets for the period 1926–38.     

Business cycle accounting for the Japanese economy

We conducted business cycle accounting (BCA) using the method developed by Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (Chari, V.V., P.J. Kehoe, E.R. McGrattan, 2002a. Accounting for the Great Depression. Am. Econ. Rev. 92 (2), 22–27) on data from the 1980s to 1990s in Japan and from the interwar period in Japan and the United States. The contribution of this paper is two-fold. First, we find that labor wedges may have been a major contributor to the decade-long recession in the 1990s in Japan. Assuming exogenous variations in the share of labor, we find that the deterioration in the labor wedge started around 1990, which coincides with the onset of the recession. Second, we performed an alternative BCA exercise using the capital wedge instead of the investment wedge to check the robustness of BCA implications for financial frictions. The accounting results with the capital wedge imply that financial frictions may have had a large depressive effect during the 1930s in the United States. This implication is the opposite of that from the original BCA findings.     

Estimation of historical inflation expectations

Expected inflation is a central variable in economic theory. Economic historians have estimated historical inflation expectations for a variety of purposes, including studies of the Fisher effect, the debt deflation hypothesis, central bank credibility, and expectations formation. I survey the statistical, narrative, and market-based approaches that have been used to estimate inflation expectations in historical eras, including the classical gold standard era, the hyperinflations of the 1920s, and the Great Depression, highlighting key methodological considerations and identifying areas that warrant further research. A meta-analysis of inflation expectations at the onset of the Great Depression reveals that the deflation of the early 1930s was mostly unanticipated, supporting the debt deflation hypothesis, and shows how these results are sensitive to estimation methodology.     

Women's labor force participation and marriage: The case of Korea

In this paper, we examine the relationship between marital status and female labor force participation in Korea, and argue that marriage remains a major obstacle to young Korean women's employment. We find that an average married woman is much less likely (by 40–60%) to participate in the labor force than a single woman in urban Korea. Further investigation into the participation patterns among married women reveals that labor force participation rate (LFPR) varies with husband's occupation and her own age. Lower LFPR among the young married women is explained by demand-side factors, while relatively higher LFPR among the middle-aged married women is mostly explained by the supply-side factors.     

Currency devaluations and beggar-my-neighbour penalties: evidence from the 1930s

The currency devaluations of the 1930s facilitated a faster recovery from the Great Depression in the countries depreciating, but their unilateral manner provoked retaliatory and discriminatory commercial policies abroad. This article explores the importance of the retaliatory motive in the imposition of trade barriers by gold bloc countries during the 1930s and its effects on trade. Relying on new and existing datasets on the introduction of quotas, tariffs, and bilateral trade costs, the quantification of the discriminatory response suggests that these countries imposed significant beggar-my-neighbour penalties. The penalties reduced trade to a similar degree that modern regional trade agreements foster trade. Furthermore, the analysis of contemporary newspapers reveals that the devaluations of the early 1930s triggered an Anglo-French trade conflict marked by tit-for-tat protectionist policies. With regards to global trade, the unilateral currency depreciations came at a high price in political and economic terms. These costs must have necessarily reduced their benefit to the world as a whole.     

The impact of digital finance on women's bargaining power: Evidence from China

This paper explores the effect of digital finance adoption on women's bargaining power within the family. Empirical analysis finds that higher digital finance adoption significantly improves women's bargaining power and thus alleviates intra-household inequality. We explain the underlying mechanism in terms of women's participation in both labor and financial market. The subsample regression results show that the impact differs among families with distinct characteristics in terms of regions, family living patterns and women's fertility status. This paper provides a new perspective for understanding the inclusive contribution of digital finance and forms a timely complement to the literature in related fields.     

Sharing Scarcity: Rationing and Price Subsidisation of Tea in Australia, 1942–55

Australians were the world's second highest consumers of tea per capita during the 1930s. After losing access to its main supplier, the Dutch East Indies, with the outbreak of the Pacific War, the Commonwealth of Australia established a Tea Control Board and later a coupon-based tea rationing scheme. Drawing upon archival sources, this article examines the regulation of the supply of tea in Australia until 1955. Rationing delivered reduced amounts of tea to Australians at heavily discounted prices, maintaining a trend towards reduced tea consumption that had begun in the early 1930s.     

Off-farm employment and grain production change: New evidence from China

How does off-farm employment affect grain production? Previous research findings are inconsistent. This paper provides a general theoretical framework to explain the effect of off-farm employment on grain production and consider that the effect is non-liner. The empirical results show that off-farm employment decreases grain production and insignificantly changes grain crop structure. Importantly, we find an inverted-U correlation between off-farm employment and grain production, meaning that off-farm employment will increase grain production when the off-farm labor supply is relatively low and will decrease grain production when the off-farm labor supply is relatively high. Further, we investigate the heterogeneity of the causal effect in the destinations of off-farm employment, household's land scale, land features, household location, and household aging.