WILL THE “TRUE” LABOR SHARE STAND UP? AN APPLIED SURVEY ON LABOR SHARE MEASURES

Labor's share of income is a key variable in economics. It plays a leading role in analysis of (in)equality, globalization, technical change, growth theories, etc. Notwithstanding this broad application, there are many different definitions of the labor share. Understanding and synthesizing those differences is the purpose of this applied survey. Empirical measures may vary reflecting the allocation of income components that cannot be directly ascribed to capital or labor. We examine the alternative assumptions made in the literature in this regard and quantify and motivate the resulting discrepancies. Focusing (mostly) on US data, we show that different measures can have very distinct properties in terms of the observed stochastic trends, shares of short‐, medium‐, and long‐run variation and volatilities, persistence and mean‐reversion properties, and susceptibility to structural breaks. For instance, while “short‐run” properties of the surveyed labor share measures are relatively consistent across all definitions (and countercyclical), their “medium‐” and “long‐run” trends may diverge substantially (and are procyclical). To substantiate our analysis, we document the implications of discrepancies in the empirical labor share definition for growth accounting, analyzing the effect of technology shocks, and for estimating inflation dynamics.     

劳动力跨部门配置与居民收入差距——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

本文从劳动力跨部门配置效应的角度,分析了我国劳动力跨部门配置的时期和地区特征,使用面板数据模型估计了我国劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的作用。结果表明,在改革开放的后一阶段,我国劳动力转移的收入分配均等化效应下降,且西部地区下降更加显著。而收入均等化效应下降的一个重要原因是各次产业部门间生产率差距扩大。文章指出产业协调发展是提高劳动力转移收入分配效应的迫切要求。     

On consistency of redescending M-kernel smoothers

M-estimators and M-kernel estimators with a redescending ψ-function are not in general consistent. This is often handled by means of coupling the estimator to a consistent one. Coupling the estimator to the (inconsistent) starting point improves the jump preserving properties. However, the consistency depends heavily on the shape of the density of the residuals. This paper shows inconsistency under convenient conditions as well as consistency – even at jump points – under somewhat stronger conditions. Research supported by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation and by grant Mu 1031/4-1/2 of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft     

A new approach to estimating earnings forecasting models: Robust regression MM-estimation

This study focuses on the impact of model estimation methods on earnings forecast accuracy. Compared with an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression combined with winsorization, robust regression MM-estimation improves the earnings forecast accuracy of all the models examined, especially for those with more variables. My findings indicate that the impact of outliers on the OLS regression increases with the number of variables in the models, alerting researchers who use OLS regressions for forecasting. My findings explain the puzzling negative relationship between earnings forecast accuracy and the number of model variables in prior research. Moreover, I demonstrate the valuation implications of earnings forecasted using robust regression MM-estimation. This study contributes to earnings forecasting, valuation, and influential observation treatment in forecasting.     

Robust penalized quantile regression estimation for panel data

This paper investigates a class of penalized quantile regression estimators for panel data. The penalty serves to shrink a vector of individual specific effects toward a common value. The degree of this shrinkage is controlled by a tuning parameter λ$\lambda$. It is shown that the class of estimators is asymptotically unbiased and Gaussian, when the individual effects are drawn from a class of zero-median distribution functions. The tuning parameter, λ$\lambda$, can thus be selected to minimize estimated asymptotic variance. Monte Carlo evidence reveals that the estimator can significantly reduce the variability of the fixed-effect version of the estimator without introducing bias.     

Estimating Long-term Trends in Tropospheric Ozone Levels

This paper develops Bayesian methodology for estimating long-term trends in the daily maxima of tropospheric ozone. The methods are then applied to study long-term trends in ozone at six monitoring sites in the state of Texas. The methodology controls for the effects of meteorological variables because it is known that variables such as temperature, wind speed and humidity substantially affect the formation of tropospheric ozone. A semiparametric regression model is estimated in which a nonparametric trivariate surface is used to model the relationship between ozone and these meteorological variables because, while it is known that the relatinship is a complex nonlinear one, its functional form is unknown. The model also allows for the effects of wind direction and seasonality. The errors are modeled as an autoregression, which is methodologically challenging because the observations are unequally spaced over time. Each function in the model is represented as a linear combination of basis functions located at all of the design points. We also estimate an appropriate data transformation simulataneously with the functions. The functions are estimated nonparametrically by a Bayesian hierarchical model that uses indicator variables to allow a non-zero probability that the coefficient of each basis term is zero. The entire model, including the nonparametric surfaces, data transformation and autoregression for the unequally spaced errors, is estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme with a computationally efficient transition kernel for generating the indicator variables. The empirical results indicate that key meteorological variables explain most of the variation in daily ozone maxima through a nonlinear interaction and that their effects are consistent across the six sites. However, the estimated trends vary considerably from site to site, even within the same city.     

Algorithms to compute CM- and S-estimates for regression

Constrained M-estimators for regression were introduced by Mendes and Tyler in 1995 as an alternative class of robust regression estimators with high breakdown point and high asymptotic efficiency. To compute the CM-estimate, the global minimum of an objective function with an inequality constraint has to be localized. To find the S-estimate for the same problem, we instead restrict ourselves to the boundary of the feasible region. The algorithm presented for computing CM-estimates can easily be modified to compute S-estimates as well. Testing is carried out with a comparison to the algorithm SURREAL by Ruppert.     

Two-stage rank estimation of quantile index models

This paper estimates a class of models which satisfy a monotonicity condition on the conditional quantile function of the response variable. This class includes as a special case the monotonic transformation model with the error term satisfying a conditional quantile restriction, thus allowing for very general forms of conditional heteroscedasticity. A two-stage approach is adopted to estimate the relevant parameters. In the first stage the conditional quantile function is estimated nonparametrically by the local polynomial estimator discussed in Chaudhuri (Journal of Multivariate Analysis 39 (1991a) 246–269; Annals of Statistics 19 (1991b) 760–777) and Cavanagh (1996, Preprint). In the second stage, the monotonicity of the quantile function is exploited to estimate the parameters of interest by maximizing a rank-based objective function. The proposed estimator is shown to have desirable asymptotic properties and can then also be used for dimensionality reduction or to estimate the unknown structural function in the context of a transformation model.     

Labor force participation

Trends in U.S. female and male labor force participation are outlined, particularly for the post-World War II period. Potential causes of these trends are then discussed, both those that operate on the demand side and those that operate on the supply side of the labor market, along with some discussion of alternative approaches to modeling these employment changes. Effects of these trends and future direction of changes are also considered.     

股份回购中每股收益信息披露失真之浅议

当上市公司签订的股份回购合同中所规定的股票回购价格高于当期普通股平均市场价格时,应当计算稀释每股收益。但由此所造成的每股收益信息披露失真,会使信息使用者无法正确评价上市公司的经营业绩。因此,为避免每股收益信息披露失真所带来的信息误导,上市公司应当在充分考虑管理层的筹资意图的前提下,对从基本每股收益分子、分母到稀释每股收益分子、分母的调整过程加以改进,从而更好地满足信息使用者的需要。     

THE IMPACT OF LABOR MARKET REGULATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: A META‐ANALYSIS

Controversy over labor market policy often centers on achieving a balance between preventing worker exploitation, and avoiding loss of productivity or employment through excessive regulation. Although the literature documenting the impact of labor market regulation on employment is extensive, there is a dearth of evidence on the impact of such policies in low‐income countries (LICs). Since it is easier for workers, especially women, to slip into the informal sector in LICs, regulations are likely to have stronger impacts on formal employment in these countries (but lower impacts on unemployment). We systematically reviewed available research from countries that are, or were until recently, LICs. Most studies document that more stringent labor regulations are associated with lower formal sector employment and higher informal sector employment. We also conducted a metaregression analysis of the impact of minimum wages on formal and informal employment. After controlling for publication bias, higher minimum wages are associated with lower formal employment and a higher share of informal workers.     

劳动关系作为法律关系:兼论劳动法学研究的范式转换

劳动关系和劳动法律关系区分的理论更多是法外视角研究劳动关系问题的结果。法律调整社会关系或劳动关系并非是指存在先在的供法律调整的社会关系,而是指法律通过规范人的行为在当事人之间产生法律关系,该法律关系是社会关系的特殊形式;法律关系产生的过程不是寻找社会关系的过程,而是判断法律规范规定的构成要件是否具备的过程。法律调整劳动关系因此是指出现法律规范的构成要件时在当事人之间产生以一方提供依附性劳动、另一方支付报酬为主要义务的权利义务关系,也即法律意义上的劳动关系。从上述劳动关系的逻辑出发,则事实劳动关系概念需要正本清源,集体劳动关系非法律意义的劳动关系,劳动法律关系、社会劳动关系、个别劳动关系等概念无存在必要。劳动法学研究应实现从法外视角向法教义学研究并重的转换。我国劳动法的规则体系和理论体系应围绕劳动关系展开。     

试论现行劳动争议解决机制的不足与完善

我国劳动争议呈逐年上升态势,但现行劳动争议处理体制存在诸如浪费资源、闲置劳动者诉权、违反公平原则等各种理论和实务问题,因此本文主张借鉴国外机制,建立适应中国的仲裁和诉讼的双轨制模式.     

无固定期限劳动合同对企业的影响分析

文章在分析企业规避无固定期限劳动合同的行为基础上,对企业存在抵触情绪的原因进行了归纳,并对如何在企业推行无固定期限劳动合同提出了几点建议。