旅游经济增长及其溢出效应的空间面板计量经济分析

文章首次基于空间面板计量经济学模型,在检验我国省域旅游经济增长是否存在空间依赖性的基础上,估计了资本和劳动对旅游经济增长的贡献,检验了旅游经济增长过程中的空间溢出效应。研究结果显示:2001~2009年间,中国省域旅游经济增长的空间依赖性和集群趋势加强,邻近省域的经济增长及旅游资本投入的空间溢出效应明显;资本和劳动的旅游产出弹性系数均为正,前者对旅游经济增长的贡献大于后者,我国省域尺度的旅游经济增长主要依赖于资本要素投入驱动,呈现出资本密集型特征,劳动力要素的贡献尚未充分发挥出来。政府在制定旅游产业政策和发展规划时,必须致力于加强邻近地区旅游资本和劳动投入的合作与交流,促进旅游经济增长中的资本空间溢出效应,改革旅游业国民收入初次分配及再次分配体制,激活邻近省域旅游劳动力投入与旅游经济增长的空间互动性,以便提高邻近地区及本地区劳动力对旅游经济增长的协同贡献。     

旅游发展、空间溢出与经济增长——来自中国的经验证据

针对传统经验研究文献忽视空间相关性而导致的研究结论偏颇问题,文章采用经济学较为前沿的空间面板计量方法,利用中国30个省份1999~2009年面板数据,实证检验了旅游发展与经济增长之间的影响关系。研究结果表明:旅游发展呈现出明显的空间自相关性,具有显著空间集聚特征,大部分省份处于高-高和低-低类型区;旅游发展对经济增长具有显著正向促进作用,传统面板回归模型没有考虑空间相关性,高估了这一作用;旅游发展对经济增长存在显著空间溢出效应,并具有较强的稳健性。     

Agglomerating or dispersing? Spatial effects of high-speed trains on regional tourism economies

Following the paradigm of New Economic Geography, this study examines the impact of high-speed train (HST) services on the spatial structure of regional tourism economies in China. We collect panel data of 286 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2016 and adopt tourism-revenue location quotients to measure the relative agglomeration level of tourism economies for a city. According to the estimation results, tourism economies tend to agglomerate from the cities outside the HST network to those inside the network. Also, tourism economies start to disperse among cities within the network as more HST services become available. Furthermore, the results unveil the spatial heterogeneity of HST impacts. The moderating effects exerted by other transport modes are examined as well. Lastly, implications are provided for policy-makers and stakeholders on how to internalize the benefits from HST networks on tourism development.     

An integrated approach for spatial analysis of the coupling relationship between tourism footprint and environment in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China

This study aims at examining the spatial relationship between tourism footprint network and comprehensive environment which contains economic, social and ecological environment. The integrated approach combining network analysis and the coupling coordination degree model with spatial autocorrelation analysis was developed to analyze the network structure of regional tourism footprint, to evaluate the coupling coordination degree of tourism footprint network and comprehensive environment, and to explore the spatial pattern of the coupling coordination development. Data were collected from the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China. The results revealed that tourism footprints were concentrated in a few cities, and the regional coupling coordination degree showed a weak negative spatial autocorrelation. Beijing, Tianjin and Baoding had high agglomeration, while their spillover effect is not significant. Shijiazhuang and Qinhuangdao located in the High–Low area are potential growth poles. Findings indicate the integrated approach established is objective and effective, and contributes to macro policy-making of regional tourism development.     

中国沿海地区旅游绿色发展对生态环境质量的影响分析

推动沿海地区旅游绿色发展,减少旅游业对资源与环境的压力,有利于保护旅游目的地的海洋生态系统,实现旅游与生态协调可持续发展。本研究以2011—2020年中国沿海地区11个省（市、区）面板数据为研究样本,采用空间计量模型估计方法,分析沿海地区旅游绿色发展对生态环境质量的影响。结果表明：（1）中国沿海地区旅游绿色发展水平与生态环境质量持续、稳步提升,且在地理空间上呈现较显著的空间集聚与关联特征;（2）旅游绿色发展对生态环境质量具有明显的正向影响及空间溢出效应,中国沿海地区各省份旅游绿色发展水平每提升1%,本地生态环境质量将上升0.302%,邻近省份将上升0.139%;(3)旅游绿色发展与第三产业、科技支出的交互作用能够有效增强其对生态环境质量的正向影响,但与第二产业、人口数量的交互作用会降低其对生态环境质量的正向影响。为实现中国沿海地区旅游绿色转型发展,应重视海洋第三产业发展及科技水平提升,促进污染排放整体下降,提升生态环境质量。     

转型期城市旅游经济时空变异及其异质性模拟——以泛长三角地区为例

运用GIS技术结合探索性空间数据分析方法,选取2001年、2005年和2010年3个时间断面数据,探讨了转型时期泛长三角城市旅游经济空间集聚及异质性空间格局演化特征,并基于半变异函数进行了空间异质性格局的模拟。结果表明：泛长三角城市旅游经济空间集聚态势明显,人均入境旅游收入、人均旅游总收入及其增长空间格局集聚态势差异显著,以上海和南京为中心的集聚区表现异常凸显。同时,空间滞后模型检验发现,最小二乘法估计的F统计量均大于100,拟合优度在0．8以上,最小二乘法估计的残差通过1％检验．经济发展水平、交通发展程度对城市旅游经济发展起到了较大的促进作用,旅游经济中心的极核作用越来越显著。结构化梯度引起的关联效应呈现上升态势,控制旅游经济发展的全过程,结构性因素和随机性因素的综合作用,共同促进了旅游经济的整体提升,随着区域旅游合作机制的不断深入,异质性格局将呈现弱化态势。     

Agglomeration density and tourism development in China: An empirical research based on dynamic panel data model

To explain the significant disparity of tourism development across Chinese provinces, this paper conducts a dynamic panel data analysis of tourism development in China using statistical data of Chinese provincial tourism industry for the 2000–2009 periods. The estimated results provide empirical evidence on the relationship between the agglomeration and development of Chinese provincial tourism in firm level. The econometric analysis shows that the tourism density in agglomeration has a positive influence on local tourism development. It appears that the variance of tourism development across Chinese provinces can be explained by the differences in the density of tourism economic activities.     

中国省域入境旅游发展的空间计量建模与影响因素效应研究

空间计量模型在旅游研究中已得到有效应用,解决了旅游产业发展中的一些实际问题,但还需进一步改进与完善。文章以中国省域入境旅游发展为着眼点,增设扩散转移矩阵为模型因变量滞后的空间权重矩阵,以反映入境旅游在中国省域之间的客流人数扩散转移实际情况,同时从最为全面的广义嵌套空间模型入手,引入旅游研究空间计量模型系统,并以区域入境旅游发展影响因素为模型自变量,构建了入境旅游发展的最优空间计量模型,最后对模型显著自变量的直接效应、溢出效应、总效应进行评估分析,给出区域入境旅游发展建议。结果显示:模型自变量出现显著消极效应的影响因素几乎为酒店供应,加强旅游资源建设和经济水平发展始终是入境旅游发展的重要途径,而开放程度已对东部省域的影响较为微弱,对中部和西部省域则起到很好的积极效应,同时交通设施在中部省域呈现出非常强劲的溢出效应。     

COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy

The pandemic COVID-19 has severely impacted upon the world economy, devastating the tourism industry globally. This paper estimates the short-run economic impacts of the inbound tourism industry on the Australian economy during the pandemic. The analysis covers effects both at the macroeconomic as well as at the industry and occupation level, from direct contribution (using tourism satellite accounts) to economy-wide effects (using the computable general equilibrium modelling technique). Findings show that the pandemic affects a range of industries and occupations that are beyond the tourism sector. The paper calls for strong support from the government on tourism as the recovery of tourism can deliver spillover benefits for other sectors and across the whole spectrum of occupations in the labour market.     

旅游经济发展是否促进了共同富裕——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

学界对旅游经济发展是否推进了共同富裕尚存在争议。文章运用中国1999-2019年省际面板数据,采用动态空间杜宾模型,采用地理和经济特征双重视角构造4种空间权重矩阵,考察旅游经济发展对共同富裕的影响和空间溢出效应。研究发现：（1）地理特征和经济特征均会对旅游经济发展促进共同富裕的空间效应产生影响,其中经济特征影响更大;（2）旅游经济发展显著促进了共同富裕,既提升了总体富裕水平,又具有“分好蛋糕”的共享效应,但目前“做大蛋糕”效应更强,而且旅游经济的溢出效应在缩小地区经济差异方面尚有较大提升空间。（3）旅游经济发展水平会影响产业结构合理化对共同富裕的作用系数,呈倒“U”型的双门槛特征,旅游经济发展水平较低时,要积极推进产业结构转型升级,但当旅游经济发展到一定水平后,要注重产业结构转型的合理化,避免产业空心化。     

The spatial agglomeration of museums,a case study in London

Museums play a significant role in urban revival and the tourism development of cities. As part of the cultural industry, the spatial agglomeration of museums becomes important. However, it is an under-researched area. This research uses a combined method of Herfindahl index and Gini Coefficient to analyze the influence of four categories of factors (demand factors, traffic factors, labor cost factors and facilities factors) on the spatial distribution of museums. It uses London as a case study, discussing the spatial distribution and agglomeration of the museums in Greater London. The results prove that a museum agglomeration in Greater London does exist, which is in a distribution of a circular pattern with the city center at the core, meanwhile influenced by the Thames River. It also shows a certain degree of linear distribution of the agglomeration. The results suggest that among the four categories of influencing factors, the demand factors are the robust elements that affect museums’ spatial distribution, which is different from manufacturing and productive services industries. Implications for practice are drawn out.     

To what extend economic uncertainty effects tourism investments? Evidence from OECD and non-OECD economies

This paper aims to examine the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on tourism investments across the samples of OECD, non-OECD, high-income, upper-middle-income, and low-income economies. We account for cross-sectional dependence and endogeneity and also incorporate economic development, financial development, and trade openness indicators in the analyses. By using annual data between 1996 and 2016 and a total of 101 countries, we provide robust estimates on the determinants of tourism investments. The findings from the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and the Group Mean approaches show that the EPU has a significant negative impact on tourism investments across the panels. Moreover, other estimates suggest that economic development, financial development, and trade positively contribute to tourism investments.     

Evaluating impact of air pollution on China’s inbound tourism industry: a spatial econometric approach

Despite widespread concern about China’s air pollution crisis, very few studies have quantitatively explored its impact on China’s inbound tourism industry. From a spatial econometric perspective, this paper has quantified the direct, indirect and total effects of air pollution on international tourists visiting China, using panel data on 31 Chinese provinces during the period 2001–2013. The results confirm that air pollution has a significant direct negative effect on international tourists visiting China. There exists apparent spatial autocorrelation for provincial-level air pollution in China. Spatial Durbin model shows evidence that air pollution in the neighbouring provinces has a significant negative impact on international tourist arrivals in the local province. The spillover effect is even larger than the direct effect. When air pollution in the neighbouring provinces becomes serious, international tourists are unlikely to travel to the local province. The findings of this study have implications for local governments to strengthen inter-governmental environmental management to invigorate tourism market.     

中国区域旅游规模的空间结构与变化

文章运用GIS环境下的空间分析技术,探讨了近年来中国区域旅游规模的空间结构及变化,其总体特征也在区域之间及区域内部的不同空间层级得到了进一步体现。中国旅游规模的空间分布总体上具有较强的正空间集聚性,且存在不断增强的趋势。局部区域的空间集聚表现了较强的规律性,并以人口地理分界线为临界区域,沿主要铁路干线发展,且空间扩散作用具不断增强趋势。东中西部及主要城市地区之间的空间差异明显,但区域之间及其内部的空间差距在不断缩小,区域旅游规模的空间结构不断得到优化。这在一定程度上体现了中国区域旅游规模的空间结构受旅游资源条件、交通条件及经济发展水平等影响因素的作用明显。进而通过文章的分析可为国家旅游空间规划与开发及相关政策的制定等提供理论上的借鉴。     

出境旅游需求的影响因素--兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同

根据微观经济学的需求理论,结合相关研究进展,文章构建了包括基本经济因素（收入和相对价格）、对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征、突发事件等变量在内的出境旅游需求模型,以74个国家/地区1995—2013年的数据为样本,分析了发达经济体和发展中经济体出境旅游需求影响因素的总体特征与异同。结果表明,收入和价格是影响出境旅游需求的决定性因素,对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征及突发事件等其他因素对出境旅游需求同样具有一定的影响。其中,收入、价格以及产业发展水平对发展中经济体出境旅游需求的影响作用相对更大,而对外开放度和人口统计特征（就业水平、年龄结构和受教育水平）对发达经济体出境旅游需求的影响更加显著。     

Sentiment,mood and outbound tourism demand

We investigate spillover effects from sentiment and mood shocks on US outbound tourism demand from 1996 until 2013. We use the Index of Consumer Sentiment and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index as proxies for sentiment and the S&P500 as a proxy for mood. We find a moderate to high interrelationship among sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand. More importantly, sentiment and mood indicators are net transmitters of spillover shocks to outbound tourism demand. The magnitude of spillover effects sourced by sentiment and mood is time-varying and depends on certain socio-economic and environmental events. Our results have important implications for policymakers and travel agents in their efforts to predict tourism arrivals from key origin countries and to plan their tourism strategy.     

Total Factor Productivity Assessment of Tourism Industry: Evidence from China

This paper adopts the Malmquist Index and panel data model to measure and test the spatial–temporal evolutionary characteristics and the factors that affect total factor productivity of China's tourism industry from 2001 to 2009. The results show the following: there is a trend of growth in the total factor productivity of China's tourism industry, and technological progress is the dominant factor that affects total factor productivity changes, which indicates that the growth pattern of China's tourism industry has changed from a pattern driven by input factors to a pattern driven by technology; the spatial pattern of the total factor productivity of China's tourism industry has changed from a spatial pattern dominated by provinces with a low productivity to a spatial pattern dominated by provinces with a high productivity; the total factor productivity of China's tourism industry is mainly affected by the levels of economic and service industry development.     

The effect of international tourism on economic development: An empirical analysis

The expansion of international tourism in developing countries is generally considered to promote their economic development. In this paper, the impact of international tourism on economic development is modelled using an aggregate production function framework. It specifically investigates intersectoral externalities and marginal factor productivity differences between the international tourism sector and the rest of the economy. The net effect of international tourism on GDP per capita is examined via an empirical analysis of 37 developing economies. The results indicate that international tourism may positively affect economic development in these countries.     

温泉旅游开发的主要影响因素综合分析

温泉旅游度假区是我国近期兴起的一类旅游项目。通过大量的实证调查和文献总结，本文对影响温泉旅游开发的主要因素进行综合分析，这些因素是：温泉资源综合素质、自然和人文景观环境、客源市场和交通条件、区域经济发展水平、温泉旅游文化特色、空间集聚和竞争以及决策者行为，它们通过作用于温泉旅游开发选址和开发特色共同影响温泉旅游的发展。     

Industry-region Position and Economic Performance of Travel and Tourism Service Industry: An Agglomeration Perspective

Numerous studies have attempted to examine industry performance from an agglomeration perspective. However, many are still focused on the manufacturing sector. This study examines the travel and tourism service industry's economic position using an agglomeration perspective and whether this relates to its economic performance. This study discovered that, apart from being related to its intra-region position relative to other industries within the region, the economic performance of an industry in a region is also related to its intra-industry position relative to other distributive regions within the industry and to its national geographical concentration. A more significant finding is that regardless of either the intra-industry or intra-region position of the industry in a region, enhancing agglomeration not only increases competition and profit erosion but also improves labour productivity. For employment creation, it is more effective to develop an industry with more uniform national geographical distribution.