International endogenous growth,macro anomalies,and asset prices

This paper develops a two-country production economy with complete and frictionless financial markets and international trade in which investments in research and development (R&D) by entrants lead to endogenous new firm creation and economic growth. Innovative entrants use both consumption goods in their innovation technologies to capture international technological spillovers. Households also consume both goods. Specifically, I compare the equilibrium implications from the model with technology spillovers to the ones from an equivalent model without technology spillovers, i.e. a model where entrants only use domestic final goods in their R&D expenditures. With these two models at hand, new insights on the interplay of endogenous growth and long-run risks, technology spillovers, complete financial markets, and international trade are obtained, particularly with respect to international macro and asset pricing anomalies. The novel technology spillover channel has the potential to help explaining a number of these anomalies.     

Abatement,R&D and growth with a pollution ceiling

The consequences of the 2 °C climate target and the implicitly imposed ceiling on CO₂ have been analyzed in several studies. We use an endogenous growth model with a ceiling and an abatement option to study the effect of the ceiling on the allocation of limited funds for R&D, abatement and capital accumulation. It is found that the advantagenousness of abatement rises with the cost advantage of fossil fuel versus backstop. If the cost advantage is sufficiently large at some point in time it outweighs the costs of abatement and the gains of R&D and capital accumulation. The reallocation of production towards abatement may cause an increase or decrease in long-run consumption. In the latter case, abatement allows an intertemporal consumption trade-off which may even justify the disregard of everlasting growth. In case of stock dependent fossil fuel costs, an abatement induced speed-up of technology development may cause an increase in fossil fuel stock left in situ.     

Finland and the mobile phone industry: A case study of the return on investment from government-funded research and development

The sudden and dramatic growth of the mobile phone manufacturing sector in Finland is an interesting case study for science and technology (S&T) policy analysts. Mostly on account of the rapidity of this growth against a relatively static situation for the other sub-sectors, the Finnish economic data over the period 1990–2001 can be used without ambiguity to quantify the return of an initial public sector research and development (R&D) expenditure on the growth of a sectoral economy. Although it is apparent from the data that this economic success story is to some extent now running out of steam, the returns to date for all the participants have been astonishing. Using the Patterson–Hartmann model, which has been developed to link company-level R&D expenditure with product revenue, it is shown that government has managed to achieve a multiplier effect of about 66 on its initial R&D expenditure through initially a leveraging of business R&D expenditure (at a level of 1:3) and then the translation of the latter into an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) (at a level of 1:22). These figures are extraordinarily high, even in comparison to the multipliers obtained by large private sector companies.The keys to the success were both the vision and foresight of the Finnish R&D community, who identified cell phones as a major growth opportunity, the sharing of risk by the various role players (government, universities and industry) as can happen in an efficient national system of innovation, and finally a sustained commitment to R&D by the industry leaders. The latter has now reached a level of 3.5% of GDP (2005), which makes Finland a global leader in R&D expenditure (as a percentage of GDP). The lessons for developing countries such as South Africa, which are moving towards higher levels of R&D expenditure but within a resource constrained context, are apparent.     

Innovation dynamics and fiscal policy: Implications for growth,asset prices,and welfare

We study the equilibrium implications of different fiscal policies on macroeconomic quantities and welfare by utilizing an endogenous growth model that matches asset pricing data well. The fiscal instruments of interest are (i) subsidies to R&D expenditure, consumption and capital investment, and (ii) cuts in labor and corporate tax rates. Our equilibrium analysis provides new insights on the interplay of innovation dynamics and fiscal policy. Importantly, we find growth and welfare to be inversely related when changing R&D subsidies. However, this depends on how well the model reproduces asset pricing dynamics. Moreover, only subsidies to capital investments and cuts in the corporate tax rate have the potential to increase both growth and welfare.     

Building the Knowledge Stock: Lags,Depreciation, and Uncertainty in R&D Investment and Link with Productivity Growth

The search for an appropriate methodology to investigate the relation between R&D investment, knowledge stock and productivity growth is the main purpose of the paper. In analogy with physical assets, we present a model of knowledge capital formation which allows the calculation of the relevant user cost, as well. The proposed model accumulates R&D investment based on a stochastic gestation lag and a geometric depreciation of the stock. The basic parameters underlying the lag structure differ according to the types of research expenditure. The approach is applied to public R&D investment in Italian agriculture; the results provide interesting information about the economic structure of public research effort in Italian agriculture and plausible estimates of its internal rate of return.     

Beyond the “Innovation's Black-Box”: Translating R&D outlays into employment and economic growth

The emergence of the so-called “European Paradox” shows that increasing Governmental R&D Investment is far from being a ‘panacea’ for stagnant growth. Surprisingly, Governmental R&D Employment does not contribute to ‘mass-market’ employment, despite its important role in reducing Youth-Unemployment. Despite the negative side-effect of Governmental R&D Employment on economic growth, University R&D Employment appears to have a quite important role in reducing Unemployment, especially Youth-Unemployment, while it also does not have a downside in terms of economic growth. Technological Capacity enhancement is the most effective instrument for reducing Youth-Unemployment and is a policy with a quite robust effect regarding sustainable economic development.     

Impact of R&D and Technology Diffusion on Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence for 10 OECD Countries

This paper examines the empirical evidence on the impact of performed R&D and of R&D embodied in intermediate and capital goods on productivity performance in 10 major OECD countries over the last two decades. To quantify intersectoral and international technology flows, industry-level embodied R&D variables were constructed from an input–output (IO) R&D embodiment model. The productivity variables used are discrete Divisia growth indexes of total factor productivity (TFP), which were estimated from an IO growth accounting model. The results from pooled regressions indicate that the rates of return of the R&D variables were positively significant and increasing in the 1980s. In particular, embodied R&D is an important source for TFP growth in services, indicating very high social returns of the flows of capital-embodied technology into this sector. Moreover, the information and communi-cation technology (ICT) cluster of industries played a major role in the generation and cquisition of new technologies at the international level.     

Growth and welfare effects of corruption penalties

This paper analyses the steady-state effect of business corruption penalties on economic growth, corruption and welfare. To that end, the baseline horizontal R&D growth model is extended to include corruption, which is generated in intermediate goods production. Taxation on corruption depresses profits in production but also wages, leading to labor being reallocated from production to R&D, and, therefore, to a higher economic growth rate. Moreover, it also reduces corruption and increases welfare if preferences towards a corruption-free environment are strong enough. The results are in line with the data observed for 15 EU countries.     

How to optimize the allocation of research resources? An empirical study based on output and substitution elasticities of universities in Chinese provincial level

Although significant progress has been made in China's basic research in recent years, there remains a wide gap between research in China and that from developed countries. How to optimize the allocative efficiency of research resources is of great importance for increasing research output. In this paper, using the fixed effect stochastic frontier model based on the translog production function, we estimate output and substitution elasticities of research and development (R&D) inputs at universities in China's provincial level during 2009–2016. We find that the R&D technical efficiency of China's universities, after a rapid growth, has tended to become relatively stable. Improvements of internationalization degree and exogenous R&D capabilities are conducive to promoting R&D technical efficiency, whereas expenditures from government grants inhibit the promotion of R&D technical efficiency; the effects of R&D capital deepening and internet penetration are not evident. The output elasticity of R&D capital is much higher than that of R&D personnel, suggesting that R&D capital is the main driving force of research output. The substitution elasticity between R&D capital and personnel has experienced a change from substitution to complementary since 2014. To realize sustained growth of research output, we should increase R&D input with positive output elasticity or reduce R&D input with negative output elasticity, making the necessary trade-offs according to the substitution relationship between the two R&D inputs.     

Estimation of the most influential science and technology factors for economic growth forecasting by soft computing technique

Economic growth may be developed on the basis on combination of different factors. In this investigation was analyzed the economic growth forecasting based on the different factors. The main goal was to analyze the influence of science and technology factors on the economic growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) was used as economic growth indicator. The method of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to the data in order to select the most influential factors for the GDP growth rate forecasting. Ten inputs are considered: research and development (R&D) expenditure in GDP, scientific and technical journal articles, patent applications for nonresidents, patent applications for residents, trademark applications for nonresidents, trademark applications for residents, total trademark applications, researchers in R&D, technicians in R&D and high-technology exports. The ANFIS process for variable selection was also implemented in order to detect the predominant factors affecting the forecasting of GDP growth rate.     

The linkages among energy consumption,economic growth,relative price,foreign direct investment,and financial development in Malaysia

The aim of this study is to analyse the causal relationship among energy consumption, economic growth, relative price, financial development (FD) and foreign direct investment in Malaysia using a multivariate framework. This study covers a sample from 1972 to 2009. Both the Johansen–Juselius cointegration test and bounds testing approach to cointegration consistently suggest that the variables are cointegrated. We find that energy consumption and economic growth Granger causes each other in the short and long run. In addition, both FDI-led growth and finance-led growth hypotheses are also supported by the findings from this study. Ultimately, energy is a prominent resource for financial sector development in Malaysia because we find that energy consumption Granger causes FD. Policymakers should implement a dual strategy that, on one hand, increases investment in energy infrastructure to ensure that the supply of energy is sufficient for the financial sector and economic development, while, on the other, encourages R&D in green technology such as exercising proper soil conservation techniques and sustainable farming practices in order to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels. By doing so, environmental problems such as carbon dioxide emissions can be minimised without affecting economic growth and financial sector development in Malaysia.     

MEASURING INTERSECTORAL KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS: AN APPLICATION OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO ITALY

R&D spillovers are unanimously considered as one of the main driving forces of technical change, innovation and economic growth. This paper aims at measuring interindustry R&D spillovers. We apply an ‘uncertainty-sensitivity analysis’ to the Italian input–output table of intermediate goods split into 31 economic sectors for the year 2000. The value added of using this methodology is the opportunity of distinguishing between spillover effects induced by productive linkages (the Leontief forward multipliers) and those activated by R&D investments, capturing the uncertain and non-linear nature of the relations between spillovers and factors affecting them.     

Abatement R&D,market imperfections,and environmental policy in an endogenous growth model

We develop an endogenous growth model featuring environmental externalities, abatement R&D, and market imperfections. We compare the economic performances under three distinct regimes that encompass public abatement, private abatement without tax recycling, and private abatement with tax recycling. It is found that the benefit arising from private abatement will be larger if the degree of the firms’ monopoly power is greater. With a reasonably high degree of monopoly power, a mixed abatement policy by which the government recycles environmental tax revenues to subsidize the private abatement R&D is a plausible way of reaching the highest growth rate and welfare.     

Economic conditions for innovation: Private vs. public sector

The Hicks induced innovation hypothesis states that a price increase of a production factor is a spur to invention. We propose an alternative hypothesis restating that a spur to invention requires not only an increase of one factor but also a decrease of at least one other factor to offset the companies’ cost. We illustrate the need for our alternative hypothesis in a historical example of the industrial revolution in the United Kingdom. Furthermore, we econometrically evaluate both hypotheses in a case study of research and development (R&D) in 29 OECD countries from 2003 to 2017. Specifically, we investigate the dependence of investments to R&D on the economic environment represented by average wages and oil prices using panel regression. We find that our alternative hypothesis is supported for R&D funded and/or performed by business enterprises while the original Hicks hypothesis holds for R&D funded by the government and R&D performed by universities. Our results reflect that the business sector is significantly influenced by market conditions, unlike the government and higher education sectors.     

Mining the R&D innovation performance processes for high-tech firms based on rough set theory

The research and development (R&D) innovation of firms continues to be viewed as an important source of competitive advantage to academics and practitioners. To explore and extract the R&D innovation decision rules, it is important to understand how the R&D innovation rule-base works. However, many studies have not yet adequately induced and extracted the decision rule of R&D innovation and performance based on the characteristics and components of the original data rather than on post-determination models. The analysis of this study is grounded in the taxonomy of induction-related activities using a rough set theory approach or rule-based decision-making technique to infer R&D innovation decision rules and models linking R&D innovation to sales growth. The rules developed using rough set theory can be directly translated into a path-dependent flow network to infer decision paths and parameters. The flow network graph and cause-and-effect relationship of decision rules are heavily exploited in R&D innovation characteristics. In addition, an empirical case of R&D innovation performance will be illustrated to show that the rough sets model and the flow network graph are useful and efficient tools for building R&D innovation decision rules and providing predictions. We will then illustrate that integrating the flow network graph with rough set theory can fully reflect the characteristics of R&D innovation, and, through the established model, we can obtain a more reasonable result than with artificial influence.     

The potential effect of US baby-boom retirees on stock returns

Empirical studies demonstrated that US baby boomers consumption and savings patterns have affected economic aggregates over the past decades, among them equity returns. Boomers’ retirement is expected to mitigate the demand for equities until 2050, but its impact varies with the specific population age structure along decades. This paper employs a dynamic asset pricing model with optimum consumption and portfolio rules to estimate aging effects on S&P500 returns between 1950 and 2050. Calibration for demographic and economic data between 1950 and 2005 yields model estimates that significantly explain the moving average of S&P500 returns. Further, taking into account the present value of expected demographic effects until 2050 suggests that the S&P500 was fairly priced at the heart of the financial crisis, on April 2009, but overpriced thereafter.     

On robust asymmetric equilibria in asymmetric R&;D-driven growth economies

In R&D-driven growth models with asymmetric fundamentals, the steady-state equilibrium R&D investments are industry-specific, and they are such that R&D returns are equalized across industries. Return equalization, however, makes investors indifferent as to where to target research and, hence, the problem of allocation of R&D investments across industries is indeterminate. Agents’ indifference creates an ambiguous investment scenario. We assume that agents hold “ambiguous” beliefs on the per-industry profitability of their R&D investments. Investors’ aversion towards ambiguity eliminates the indeterminacy of the investment problem. In particular, the asymmetric return-equalizing equilibrium is robust against a however small degree of investors’ ambiguity aversion.     

On the closed-form solution of an endogenous growth model with anticipated consumption

This paper derives a closed-form solution of the AK endogenous growth model with logarithmic preferences and anticipated future consumption which enters additively into effective consumption. We get an explicit representation of the time paths of the economic variables in level by resorting to Gaussian Hypergeometric functions. We compare the model with anticipated future consumption to the model with habit formation. The maximum utility attainable in the model with anticipation is shown to be higher than the one attainable in the model with habits. Using the derived explicit expressions, we perform some comparative-dynamics and -statics analyses with respect to relevant parameters. Numerical simulations complement the theoretical results. Thus, this work provides further support to the usefulness of especial functions in the study of economic dynamics.     

Structural change and technological development

It is important for our understanding of sectoral and regional structural change to analyze the R & D-activities. In this paper we show that R & D should be analyzed as an endogenous, intermediate, public investment variable rather than as ordinary capital investment. The allocation of resources for R&D cannot be decentralized regionally or sectorally but should preferably be decided on as a problem of optimal taxation. It is shown that the optimal rate of taxation for R&D is determined by possibilities of substitution between ordinary capital investments and R&D, by the propensity to invest and by the productivity of the R&D- producing sector. A dynamic model with accessibility representation of knowledge is finally formulated. This interregional R&D-model also has equilibrium growth properties. The equilibrium rate of growth of all regions of this model can be raised by decreasing any interregional distance or by raising any regional propensity to invest.