网络属性对消费者在线重购品牌选择行为影响研究

在线渠道日益成为厂商重点渠道之一,越来越多的消费者选择在网上购物。传统营销方式正逐渐发生变化,在线渠道不仅扩展了线下属性,同时,也展现了新的特征。因此,研究网络属性对消费者重购品牌选择具有重要的意义。本文以手机作为研究对象,构建多元Logit模型研究线下品牌属性和在线营销组合变量对消费者下次选择的购买意愿的影响程度,分析在线渠道下影响消费者品牌选择的机理。研究发现,产品属性和网络属性对消费者重购品牌选择产生影响;虽然网络属性会显著地改变品牌选择方式,但传统的产品属性在品牌选择中仍然起到关键性的作用。最后本文还得出了在线手机品牌的消费者心理市场份额。     

SELECTION BIAS CORRECTIONS BASED ON THE MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL: MONTE CARLO COMPARISONS

Abstract.  This survey presents the set of methods available in the literature on selection bias correction, when selection is specified as a multinomial logit model. It contrasts the underlying assumptions made by the different methods and shows results from a set of Monte Carlo experiments. We find that, in many cases, the approach initiated by Dubin and MacFadden (1984) as well as the semi-parametric alternative recently proposed by Dahl (2002) are to be preferred to the most commonly used Lee (1983) method. We also find that a restriction imposed in the original Dubin and MacFadden paper can be waived to achieve more robust estimators. Monte Carlo experiments also show that selection bias correction based on the multinomial logit model can provide fairly good correction for the outcome equation, even when the IIA hypothesis is violated.     

Choosing the share bond by using qualitative dependent variable models in Turkey

In this paper whether the bond according to a certain criterion for one time period in the future with the classic logit models and for a certain time period in the future with the panel logit model is successful or not have been forecasted. For this purpose financial ratios of the industrial companies listed on Istanbul Stock Exchange in Turkey over the period 1995–2001 were used. The results indicated that different financial data is effective in the different models used for different terms i.e., the models are different for each other.     

基于价值工程方法改进的多维Logit模型研究

通过引入价值工程方法,改进基于随机效用理论的多维Logit模型,形成VEL模型,对VEL模型进行了功能分析和广义出行成本分析,最后论述出行人群的划分方式和集计化。     

An empirical study on credit card loan delinquency

Following the Basel II convention, consumer credit default is commonly defined as delinquency beyond a period of 90 days. In this study, rather than considering default as a binary variable, we dissect delinquency states further to investigate default behavior in greater detail. As such, we define three states—no delinquency, delinquency and serious delinquency—and estimate the probabilities of the transitions between states using extensive panel data from Korea, covering a wide range of behavioral information. Our findings have several economic implications. First, the factors that affect delinquency risk can differ from those that affect the transition from delinquency to serious delinquency. Second, the recent increase in the number of seriously delinquent accounts can be attributed to changes in the borrower age distribution. Third, macroeconomic conditions, especially differences in gross domestic product and consumption growth, have led to the recent increase in delinquent accounts. Fourth, the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio has a profound effect on transitions between delinquency states and thus affects both recovery and delinquency. Furthermore, this result is robust to controls for demographic and macroeconomic factors.     

基于K-means和布谷鸟算法的流程模型聚类

流程模型聚类是流程管理领域的一个热门话题。本文提出一种基于布谷鸟算法的K-means算法,该算法弥补了K-means算法的依赖初始解、易陷入局部最优等缺点。本文从流程模型结构性能、成本、效率、顾客满意度以及质量等五个方面模拟数据集,并选择权重较高的属性进行试验操作,结果表明算法的具有较高的可行性和有效性。     

Firms’ innovation performance and the role of the metropolitan location. Evidence from the European periphery

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses the role of metropolitan location in explaining firms’ innovation performance while accounting for other internal and external determinants of innovation. Using micro-level dataset and controlling for firm-specific, sector-specific and region-specific features, we identify a nuanced effect of location within metropolitan areas on the innovative performance of companies The results prove to vary for the different measures of innovation output of firms and in particular there is no metropolitan advantage detected for binary self-declared measures of innovations. The advantage is detected for the count-based quantity of innovation measures which is shown to critically depend on the higher performance of metropolitan-based firms in patenting and licencing. The interlinkages between location and firm-size matter and the results are asymmetric with particular benefits arising for micro-firms in their patenting and licencing.     

On the relation between currency and banking crises in developing countries, 1980–2010

This paper investigates the relationship between the occurrence of currency and banking crises using high-frequency data for a sample of 94 countries during 1980–2010. The two types of crises are proxied by continuous, multi-categorical and dummy variables based on market pressure indexes, and a dummy variable from the Laeven–Valencia banking crises database. Results suggest that a bidirectional leading relationship exists between the two types of crises. However, banking crises do not lead currency crises robustly when banking crises are proxied by dummies based on market pressure indexes. Finally, currency crises have robust state dependence, but this is not the case for banking crises.     

经济新常态下战略性新兴产业金融支持效率评价及影响因素研究

本文以150家上市公司2012²016年共17个季度的数据为研究样本,运用数据包络分析法,通过DEA-BCC模型和Malmquist指数分别测算金融支持战略性新兴产业的综合效率和动态效率,再利用Logit模型依次分析2012²015年度金融支持效率的影响因素。研究表明,经济新常态下的战略性新兴产业金融支持效率相对有效,但应警惕总体的下降趋势;间接融资和直接融资陆续成为战略性新兴产业的助推因素,战略性新兴产业发展的关键在于政府的合理引导。     

农户土地确权意愿影响因素及其层次结构研究——基于鲁、豫、鄂、湘四省3064位农户的实地调查

本文基于鲁、豫、鄂、湘四省116个村庄3064位农民,运用Logit模型和ISM模型,首先分析了农户土地确权意愿的影响因素,然后解释出各影响因素的关联层次结构。研究结果表明:农户土地确权意愿受多重因素的影响,其中,务农收入和生产资金投入是深层影响因素。在深层因素中,生产资金投入是根本动因。为此,本文建议政府在制定确权政策时要重点关注农户的个体特征差异,多渠道调动农户生产资金投入的积极性,进而确保土地确权工作顺利推进。     

郊区农村劳动力乡城迁移意愿研究——以广州市为例

依据农户抽样调查数据,运用逻辑回归模型,对特大城市郊区农村劳动力迁移决策的主要影响因素进行分析。     

Multiple and Partial Correlation Coefficients of Fuzzy Sets

In many applications, multiple correlation and partial correlation for three or more fuzzy sets are very important, but Chiang and Lin (1999, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 102: 221–226) do not solve this problem. Here, we propose a method to calculate the multiple correlation and partial correlation for fuzzy data, by adopting the concepts from the multivariate correlation model. In order to fit into normal framework, we use empirical logit transform (see, Agresti, [1990, Categorical Data Analysis. New York: Wiley]; Johnson and Wichern, [1992, Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis 3rd edn. Engelwood Cliffs; Prentice-Hall.]) for membership function grades to achieve this.     

西气东输管道工程盐渍土病害危害性分析

西气东输工程干线西起新疆塔里木的轮南,东迄于上海西郊的白鹤镇,途经9个省、市、自治区,全长逾3800km。工程通过的新疆段、甘肃段、宁夏段和陕西段分布有较多的盐渍土,盐渍土病害对输气管道的影响是长期的、不可忽视的,笔者根据西气东输工程沿线的盐渍土病害情况,对盐渍土进行分类,并且根据盐渍土的工程特性,评价了盐渍土病害对西气东输管道的危害性。     

Econometric Analysis of Managers' Judgements on the Determinants of the Financial Situation in Russia

The paper presents an econometric analysis of the determinants of the financial situation in Russian manufacturing. Official statistics in Russia are not reliable. This is why the analysis is based on business opinion surveys carried out within `The Russian Economic Barometer' long-term research programme for monitoring and investigation of the transition to the market in Russia. The new adaptive approach elaborated by the author of the paper is used to form a correct set of explanatory variables in regression equations. This approach is based on the comparison of the forecast abilities of alternative models with different sets of explanatory variables. Two periods are considered and compared: January 1993 to January 1995 and February 1995 to January 1998. Two variables, the diffusion index of output and the average order-book level, provide the best explanation of the managers' judgement regarding the financial situation in Russia for the first period. It was found that for the second period, the influence of the `output index' diminished. The main factors with which managers related a `good' financial situation in their enterprises were the sample average of order-book level, the stocks of finished goods, the index of order-book level, the index of output prices ratio, and the indebtedness to banks. All relationships are presented in the context of linear probability and logit models.     

Analysis of Visitor Decision Making System When Visiting Natural Recreation Sites by Multinomial Logit Model

Multinomial Logit Model has analyzed the relationship between the frequency of visits to recreation areas and the motivational factors affecting the visits. Kastro Environment Preserving Site that is located in the Black Sea coast of Marmara region in Turkey, has been chosen as the site for this study. Kastro bay is a natural park that is visited only for recreational visits. The study has been conducted on a photogenic study group due to the proximity factor of Kastro bay close to Istanbul. Kastro bay is a popular recreational park due to its characteristic advantages such as a 200 m wide and approximately 2.5 km long beach and with its high quality vegetation. The vegetation type includes ash tree, oak tree, black pine, sand lily etc. Kastro bay is also the site for the Mediterranean seals (Monachus-monachus) which are at the level of extinction. Approximately 50,000 visitors visit the region during the months of July and August. It has been concluded that there is high direct correlation between the frequency of visits and the motivational factors. It has been determined that the visits are mostly based on the sea and the ecological tourism.Jel: O13, Q20, Q26, Q51, Q56, Q57