Non-Archimedean preferences over countable lotteries

We prove a representation theorem for preference relations over countably infinite lotteries that satisfy a generalized form of the Independence axiom, without assuming Continuity. The representing space consists of lexicographically ordered transfinite sequences of bounded real numbers. This result is generalized to preference orders on abstract superconvex spaces.     

On the Bicentenary in St. Petersburg of Jacob Bernoulli's Theorem

We focus on the Bicentenary (1913) celebrations, organised in St. Petersburg, Russia, by the great probabilist, A. A. Markov, founder of the theory of Markov chains. This theory was stimulated by the need to demonstrate a Law of Large Numbers for sums of dependent random variables. Markov's work on the Law of Large Numbers originating in the celebrations was exposited and extended by S. N. Bernstein and, in English, by J. V. Uspensky, who had played an integral part in the St. Petersburg celebrations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

政府扶持物流发展的几个博弈问题

中国加入WTO,物流产业面临着前所未有的机遇和挑战,政府和企业所要进行的工作任重道远。我国物流现状远远落后于发达国家,政府作为国家重要基础设施的掌控者和国家宏观经济调控的决策者,应加大力度从宏观和微观的角度支持物流产业的发展,对相关扶持进行博弈决策。     

博弈论在企业应收账款中的应用分析

在激烈的市场竞争中,赊销作为一种销售策略普遍存在。文章就企业与竞争对手之间的"囚徒困境"博弈,分析了应收账款的产生背景和企业选择赊销的被迫性,进而通过企业与客户之间的相机决策博弈,构建模型,在动态的博弈中,依次剖析了企业赊销的选择前提和应收账款的后续管理策略。     

基于合作博弈理论的流失客户赢回决策研究

本文针对不同类型的流失客户分别针对流失客户赢回策略即费用进行博弈,将赢回预算按比例分配这一方式和夏普利值以及核仁的分配进行比较,研究发现企业赢回投入和赢回概率具有正相关的关系,同时对于企业营销实践具有重要的意义。     

Mapping walkability. A subjective value theory approach

The analysis of urban walkability has been extensively explored in the last decades. Despite this growing attention, there is a lack of studies attentive on how citizens' values, individual abilities and urban environment favour or hinder the propensity to walk. Hence, there is a need to explore how preferences and values of citizens vary in space in order to design walkability policies able to improve the capability set of citizens. In this perspective, the design of spatial decision tools aimed to plann public policies for the development of walkable cities needs further investigation. We propose a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method aimed to elaborate walkability decision maps for different groups of citizens that reflect their capability to walk in the urban environment. We tested the method in the city of Alghero (Italy). First, we analysed walkability under a normative model named CAWS; then we made a survey with 358 participants in order to study the driving values that influence their choice to walk and finalised to build an evaluation model attentive to individual differences. Cluster analysis was employed to group citizens into 11 groups based on their sociodemographic characteristics and preferences on spatial criteria of walkability. Finally, by integrating GIS with MCDA we built a set of decision maps representative of the walkability of the 11 groups of citizens. Results highlight the importance of citizens’ values for policy design, allow the interpersonal comparison among individuals and group preferences and give new suggestions for the formulation of walkability oriented urban policies. Moreover, the results confirm the usability of the general method as a decision support tool supporting the design of urban policies.     

Information and Economics in Fisher's Design of Experiments

In 1951 R. A. Fisher described what had been achieved in the 20th century so far: “we have learnt (i) To conserve in its statistical reduction the scientific information latent in any body of observations. (ii) To conduct experimental and observational inquiries so as to maximise the information obtained for a given expenditure.” This paper asks what Fisher meant and, in particular, how he saw his work on experimental design as contributing to the objective of maximizing information for a given expenditure. The material examined ranges from detailed work on issues like “the information lost in measurement of error” to polemics against decision theory .     

Allocating additional resources to public universities. A DEA bargaining approach

This paper deals with the problem of allocating additional resources in a public university system. Instead of a solution imposed from above, the proposed bargaining approach lets the universities voluntarily agree on a solution that benefits them all. To be realistic the allocation assumes that the universities will keep their current technical efficiency. A bargaining problem is formulated, defining the corresponding feasible set and disagreement point. Four different bargaining solutions, namely Nash, Kalai-Smorodinsky, Egalitarian and Utilitarian, are considered and discussed. The proposed approach is applied to a real-world dataset involving the nine public universities of the Andalusian region. The results of the different bargaining solutions are very consistent as regards the output and utility improvements to be achieved by each university.     

一种低熔点金属液泵

本实用新型涉及一种低熔点金属液提升泵。对该结构的改变以及滑动轴承材料的改变,将使设备的使用寿命延长十几倍,生产效率得到数倍的提高,极大的节约了生产成本。具有很强的实际应用价值。     

城市拆迁中的维权博弈

首先依据外部性原理和博弈论方法,构建了被拆迁人维权行为博弈模型,并对此进行了分析.研究表明,增加对被拆迁人的补偿比加大对拆迁人惩罚力度的效果要好;政府行政执法机关积极履行职责,要比被动查处拆迁人的侵权来保护被拆迁人的合法权益成本更低.最后,据此提出了建议.     

两级物流模式下合作广告模型分析:基于博弈理论

从博弈论的角度出发,分别研究了由单一制造商和单一零售商组成的两级物流模式在Stackelberg主从博弈、纳什均衡和合作博弈下的合作广告模型,并通过比较三种博弈关系下的广告投资水平,制造商,零售商和供应链的总利润,得到了在合作博弈下,双方通过制定恰当的合作广告分担比率可以获得比非合作博弈更高利润的结论,为物流系统成员制定合作广告策略提供了理论依据.     

The topology of fear

For many years experimental observations have raised questions about the rationality of economic agents—for example, the Allais Paradox or the Equity Premium Puzzle. The problem is a narrow notion of rationality that disregards fear. This article extends the notion of rationality with new axioms of choice under uncertainty and the decision criteria they imply (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). In the absence of catastrophes, the old and the new approach coincide, and both lead to standard expected utility. A sharp difference emerges when facing rare events with important consequences, or catastrophes. Theorem 1 establishes that a classic axiom of choice under uncertainty – Arrow’s Monotone Continuity axiom, or its relatives introduced by DeGroot, Villegas, Hernstein and Milnor – postulate rational behavior that is ‘insensitive’ to rare events as defined in (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). Theorem 2 replaces this axiom with another that allows extreme responses to extreme events, and characterizes the implied decision criteria as a combination of expected utility with extremal responses. Theorems 1 and 2 offer a new understanding of rationality consistent with previously unexplained observations about decisions involving rare and catastrophic events, decisions involving fear, the Equity Premium Puzzle, ‘jump diffusion’ processes and ‘heavy tails’, and it agrees with (Debreu, G., 1953. Valuation equilibrium and Pareto optimum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 40, 588–592) formulation of market behavior and his proof of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand theorem.     

A Review of Modern Computational Algorithms for Bayesian Optimal Design

Bayesian experimental design is a fast growing area of research with many real‐world applications. As computational power has increased over the years, so has the development of simulation‐based design methods, which involve a number of algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, sequential Monte Carlo and approximate Bayes methods, facilitating more complex design problems to be solved. The Bayesian framework provides a unified approach for incorporating prior information and/or uncertainties regarding the statistical model with a utility function which describes the experimental aims. In this paper, we provide a general overview on the concepts involved in Bayesian experimental design, and focus on describing some of the more commonly used Bayesian utility functions and methods for their estimation, as well as a number of algorithms that are used to search over the design space to find the Bayesian optimal design. We also discuss other computational strategies for further research in Bayesian optimal design.     

基于博弈理论的外贸出口供应链利益分配问题研究

针对出口制造商、国外进口零售商和外贸服务商组成的外贸出口供应链中的利益分配问题,运用博弈理论分析独立决策和合作决策下的定价及利润关系,得出合作决策不仅使供应链系统收益提高,而且消费者也从中获益.对于合作决策下利益分配的矛盾,可以运用群体加权重心模型对供应链中成员企业的收益进行合理分配,达到共赢的目的.最后通过算例加以说明外贸出口供应链利益分配问题,并给出了研究的结论及启示.     

A Conceptual Regulatory Framework for the Design and Evaluation of Complex,Participative Cultural Planning Strategies

The current hype about culture‐led local development models is causing an increasing interest in cultural policies in the broader context of urban policy. This is not necessarily a transitory situation bound to fade once the hype is over. Under certain conditions, there is room to believe that culture may indeed become a main development driver of urban systems. For this to happen, however, it is necessary to abandon simple mono‐causal developmental schemes (such as the ‘creative class’ model) and look for more articulated approaches. This calls in turn for a complex systems‐based conceptual framework that is at the same time rich enough to capture the complexity of the interdependences among policy and state variables, and manageable enough to be of practical use, not only for policy design professionals but also for local stakeholders who want to take part in collective decision‐making processes. Inclusiveness and collective decision making are almost unavoidable in the case of cultural planning strategies, as the social sustainability of culture‐based value creation processes crucially depends on boosting the level of access to cultural opportunities by local residents. In this article we present an approach that may be a tentative first step in this direction.     

马士基在华的品牌战略及其对我国物流企业的启示

对丹麦马士基公司在中国发展海洋运输物流业务的品牌战略进行了详细地分析。分析了其在中国是如何展开企业的品牌战略、把品牌战略有效地融入传统行业。如何保持企业持续竞争优势、在中国这个巨大的市场上树立自己综合物流服务的品牌与企业形象，并对我国物流企业实施品牌战略提升竞争力提出了建议。     

中、美小企业生存环境探析

美国的小企业在美国的经济发展中起到了举足轻重的作用。美国政府为小企业的发展提供了比较完善的社会环境,这些环境有利于美国小企业的发展。我们可以从美国的小企业的生存环境中借鉴成功的经验,为我国中小企业的发展创立有利条件,加快我国中小企业的发展。     

城市化背景下的减灾文化建设:美国的经验与启示

美国在城市化背景下形成了丰富而有效的减灾文化,参照马林诺夫斯基将文化分为器物、组织和精神三个层次的做法,本文从减灾科技支撑、减灾组织体系和减灾思想理念三个方面阐述了美国减灾文化建设的主要措施和特点,并提出了加强中国减灾文化建设的建议。     

试论奈达的翻译新理念

美国著名翻译理论家尤金·奈达提出了有关翻译的新理念,它所提出的翻译新思路,引领着翻译界的革命。本文对这一翻译理念进行简要的介绍与分析。