Tourism growth and income inequality: does Kuznets Curve hypothesis exist in top tourist arrival countries

This study examines the relationship between tourism and the income inequality in top 43 tourist arrival countries by using the data over the period of 1995–2015. We have applied advanced econometric techniques which include cross-sectional augmented IPS (CIPS) unit root test, bootstrap co-integration, Pedroni co-integration, fully modified ordinary least squares, and heterogeneous panel causality technique. The results confirm that all the variables are co-integrated in the long run. The result also shows that the tourism has a positive effect on income inequality in full and the region-wise sample. Furthermore, the Kuznets curve hypothesis is also tested and found its existence. This concludes that if the examined countries increase their tourism revenue this will help them to reduce income inequality. This study gives valuable policy implications for the government and the policy-makers.     

Tourism development,energy consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries

The study investigates the relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, tourism development, energy demand, domestic investment and health expenditures with an aim to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the panel of three diversified World's region including East Asia & Pacific, European Union and High income OECD and Non-OECD countries. The study covers the period of last nine years i.e. 2005–2013. The study used the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct tourism development index which is the amalgamation of number of tourists' arrivals, tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures. The results validate the inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita income in the region. The results further substantiate the following causal relationships i.e. i) tourism-induced carbon emissions, ii) energy-induced emissions, iii) investment – induced emissions, iv) growth led tourism, v) investment led tourism and vi) health led tourism development in the region.     

Investigating the tourism and economic growth linkage: a panel causality analysis for the SAARC countries

Tourism receipts and expenditure are considered to be causally related to economic growth. The present study investigates the causal relationship between tourism receipts and tourism expenditure to economic growth for a panel of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries over a 20-year period (1995–2014). The present study used panel Granger causality tests and panel fully modified ordinary least squares to test the presence and magnitude of the causality. Results indicated a bidirectional causal linkage between growth and tourism expenditure only, while tourism receipts were found to influence growth. Tourism expenditure was found to have a negative effect on growth.     

Dynamic relationship between tourism,economic growth,and environmental quality

Abstract

In the recent era of globalisation, the tourism sector is growing rapidly and stimulates economic growth across the world, however, the inevitable environmental consequences of tourism cannot be ignored. For sustainable tourism, it is necessary to understand the interrelationship between economic growth, tourism, and environmental quality. Hence, the objective of the current research is to investigate the dynamic relationship between tourism, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions from 1995 to 2014 in the context of BRICS economies. A group of econometric tests robust to heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence is applied to achieve accurate and unbiased results. Empirical findings propose that tourism sector significantly encourages economic growth; however, tourism degrades the quality of the environment. Also, globalisation has a long-term relationship with economic growth but an insignificant relationship with CO₂ emissions. The long-term elasticities further recommend that investment stimulate economic growth and mitigate CO₂ emissions. Moreover, environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) holds in BRICS countries in its significance to tourism and globalisation. Finally, a heterogeneous panel non-causality test detects bi-directional causality between tourism receipts and CO₂ emissions. Moreover, tourism and investment in tourism Granger cause each other. Empirical findings direct towards important policy implications.     

Can tourism be a key sector in reducing income inequality? An empirical investigation for Turkey

The aim of the study is to investigate the nexus between tourism and income inequality by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) test cover the period 1974–2015 in Turkey. Findings indicated that the variables are cointegrated and an increase in tourism has a positive effect on income inequality, while economic growth and trade openness have a negative effect both in the long-run and short-run. Results also denote that tourism will decrease income inequality with the expansion of tourism activities and the spread of tourism throughout society. In other words, the tourism-related Kuznets Curve hypothesis is valid for Turkey.     

Nonlinear ARDL estimation of tourism demand for Puerto Rico from the USA

This study estimates the long-run demand for tourism for Puerto Rico (1970–2016) from the USA. Since income elasticity may not be symmetric through business cycles, it becomes necessary to account for the asymmetric impact of changes in income on tourism demand. To this end, the study utilizes the nonlinear ARDL framework of Shin et al. (2014) to investigate the asymmetric cointegration. The results indicate the existence of an asymmetric or nonlinear cointegration relationship between Puerto Rico's tourism demand and its determinants. The long-run asymmetric income elasticities suggest that a 1% increase in US's real per capita GDP leads to a 1.9% increase in Puerto Rico's tourism earnings, while a 1% decrease in US's real per capita GDP produces a 4.8% reduction in tourism receipts.     

收入与出境旅游率的非线性关系——基于门槛面板模型的实证证据

在各种有关出境旅游市场影响因素的研究中,收入水平与出境旅游的关系存在着显著的争议。文章判断二者之间存在着非线性关系,且因国家而异。该研究引入门槛回归模型,以世界95个国家和地区为研究总样本,并按照面积大小划分为3组,利用其1995~2011年的人均国民收入、出境旅游率、年龄结构、教育水平和就业水平数据,对收入和出境旅游率之间的相关关系进行了深入分析。研究发现:(1)各样本中,收入与出境旅游率均呈显著非线性相关。(2)样本不同,收入门槛值的数量和位置不同,促使出境旅游快速发展的收入门槛值也不同。说明国土面积对收入与出境旅游的关系具有潜在影响。(3)各控制变量总体上对出境旅游率具有正面影响。(4)中国出境旅游实际表现超过理论基准,处于快速超前发展的阶段。以上研究结果可以为一个国家或地区判定出境旅游的发展阶段及制定合适的旅游政策提供依据。     

Pooling international tourism in Western Europe

This paper examines potential improvements in measures of international travel demand elasticities by pooling cross sections and time series of travel receipts. International travel receipts for 18 European countries are pooled and estimates of elasticities with respect to income, exchange rates, relative prices, transport costs, and number of terrorism events are computed. Indexes are developed for the purpose of measuring and aggregating transport costs and terrorism. The results show that the responses to changes in these variables are significantly different across countries. When the countries are constrained to have the same elasticities, but the constants are allowed to be different, it is found that all variables affect tourism in the expected direction and are statistically significant.     

Tourism's vulnerability and resilience to terrorism

Personal security is a major concern for tourists. Most tourists will seek safe and secure destinations and avoid those that have been plagued by terrorism. This research quantifies the relationship between terrorism and tourism in 95 different countries and territories using international tourism demand models. After controlling for income, we find there is no long run effect of terrorism on international tourism demand and the short run effect is quite limited from a global perspective using panel data models. Only nine countries out of the 95 show a long run impact of terrorism on tourism and 25 countries out of the 95 show a short run impact using time series models, implying that international tourism is resilient to terrorism. The influence of terrorism is diverse in destinations with different political instability, income levels and tourism intensities.     

Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region

Tourism is perceived as an important source of foreign exchange that is used for financing economic growth. This study offers a modern approach to tourism-led growth and investigates the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in the European, Asian and African countries that border the Mediterranean Sea. The study uses panel data for the period 1998–2011, and adopts a panel Granger causality analysis developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) to assess the contribution tourism makes to economic growth in each country. The results indicate that the direction of causality between tourism and economic growth depends on the country group and tourism indicator. Furthermore, the European countries are better able to generate growth from tourism in the Mediterranean region.     

Prospects for Latin America and Caribbean Region in the Global Market for International Tourism: A Projection to the Year 2020

International tourism has become very important to several developing countries as a major source of foreign exchange earnings for their economic development. This article explores the potentials of countries of the Latin America and Caribbean region in the global market for international tourism up to the end of the next decade. This was achieved by analyzing past trends of international tourism in the region, and projecting these trends to the year 2020 using a combination of four different time‐series projection models evaluated by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results show that international tourism arrivals into the Latin America and Caribbean region would increase from 51.21 million in 2004 (end of observed period) to between 87.58 million and 100.03 million by the year 2020. The corresponding figures for international tourism receipts would go from US$34.11 billion in 2004 to between US$64.92 billion and US$75.79 billion by the year 2020. Socioeconomic impacts of these findings are given, and recommendations for marketing strategies, government public policies, and directions for future research are discussed.     

International tourism and consumer prices in Pakistan: a wavelet-based analysis

This study aims to investigate the relationship between the tourism activities and price level in Pakistan by using monthly data set from 1972 to 2016. In this study, aggregated as well as disaggregated price level have been considered. Co-integration results suggest significant long-run relationship between tourism and all price level of goods and services except fuel and lightning. Results of the wavelet transformation show a strong variation in short-run. The results of the wavelet transformation coherence also show an in-phase as well as out-phase both associations between the prices and tourism receipts in the mid-term and long-term periods.     

Policies to increase business tourism income: A dynamic panel data model

This article aims to identify the determinants that influence business tourism income and that may be controlled by economic agents and policy makers of destination countries. For the development of the empirical study, a dynamic panel model by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) was estimated using the Gretl 2016a software, and a sample of 122 countries for the period 2002–2013 (12 years) was used. The study reveals that, for the development of policies to stimulate the growth in the short and long-term of business tourism income, countries should develop measures that encourage capital investment in tourism and foreign direct investment.     

旅游发展能否减小城乡收入差距？——来自中国的经验证据

已有的研究文献并没有系统说明旅游发展与城乡收入差距之间是否存在显著关系。文章利用中国1999—2008年分省动态面板数据的系统广义矩估计（SYS—GMM）方法对此进行了实证检验。实证结果显示,中国旅游发展能够显著减小城乡收入差距。旅游发展减小城乡收入差距的影响机制主要表现为旅游发展对农村人均实际收入具有显著正向关系,而与城镇人均实际收入之间关系则不显著,研究还发现,旅游发展对全国人均收入水平存在显著正向关系。除此之外,财政分权在旅游发展对城乡收入差距影响关系中起负调节作用;城市化在旅游发展对城乡收入差距影响关系中起正调节作用;人均收入水平在旅游发展对城乡收入差距影响关系中的负调节作用基本可以忽略。     

A comparison of the moderating effect of tourism reliance on the economic development for islands and other countries

Tourism is usually one of the top industries in most countries, especially islands. However, there is some question as to whether there is a negative potential impact if a country relies too much on tourism as a means of economic development to the detriment of other industries such as manufacturing and agriculture. The purpose of this paper is to examine the moderating effect of tourism reliance on the relationship between tourism development and economic development for regular countries and island economies, including “small island developing states” (SIDS). This study uses quantile regression on panel data from the WDI database from 1995 through 2014 for all of the countries that report tourism and economic data. The findings demonstrate that tourism reliance does have a moderating effect on the relationship between tourism development and economic development for all countries, but mainly at higher levels of economic development.     

Assessing the importance of international tourism for the Turkish economy: A social accounting matrix analysis

The international tourism sector has grown rapidly in Turkey since the 1980s and Turkey ranks among the top ten countries in terms of tourist arrivals and receipts. Previous studies on international tourism in Turkey are partial equilibrium studies which emphasized the importance of the sector for foreign exchange earnings, employment creation, and economic growth. The social accounting matrix (SAM) modeling approach is superior to partial equilibrium analysis as it takes into account intersectoral linkages. This paper analyzes the contribution of international tourism to the Turkish economy using two SAMs for 1996 and 2002, respectively. Two analyses are conducted using the SAM impact model: (i) sectoral comparison of GDP elasticities, and (ii) SAM impact analysis of international tourism on output, value-added, and employment. The results show that the GDP elasticity of international tourism is relatively low and the impact of foreign tourist expenditures on domestic production, value-added (GDP), and employment in Turkey are modest. The results imply the possibility of leakage of foreign tourist expenditures out of the economy.     

The impact of tourism developments on CO2 emissions: An advanced panel data estimation

Vulnerability and interaction between tourism and climate change are among the most important issues discussed recently. In this context, this study focuses primarily on how CO₂ emissions, the main source of global warming and climate change, react to tourism developments. To this end, the impact of tourism developments on CO₂ emissions in the most visited countries is examined from 1995 to 2014 by conducting the continuously updated fully modified (CUP-FM) and the continuously updated bias-corrected (CUP-BC) estimators. Empirical results indicate that tourism arrivals have an increasing effect on CO₂ emissions, while tourism receipts have a reducing effect on CO₂ emissions. Results also reveal a possible co-movement and causal relationship between tourism developments and CO₂ emissions in the long-run.     

Using a tourism importance–performance typology to investigate environmental sustainability on a global level

A major issue surrounding the tourism industry is the trade-off between the positive and negative impacts of increased visitation. Countries welcome tourism's positive effects on their economy but fear tourism's impact on culture and environment. There is also debate about tourism's effectiveness in reducing poverty and sharing economic benefits across residents. In this study, 120 countries were grouped on the basis of the relative importance of tourism to their economies and their relative performance in terms of international tourism receipts per capita. Then, the profiles for the categories derived from this tourism importance–performance typology were examined, and their environmental performance compared across categories using indicators that measure environmental health and ecosystem vitality. The majority of countries fell into the categories with a consistent level of importance and performance (i.e. low importance/low performance and high importance/high performance). Overall, the countries in the two high performance categories (i.e. low importance/high performance and high importance/high performance) fared better in terms of environmental health and ecosystem vitality. The results are presented in detail and the policy implications for tourism managers are discussed.     

The effect of tourism investment on tourism development and CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from the EU nations

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of tourism investment on tourism development and CO₂ emissions in a panel of 28 EU countries using annual data from 1990 to 2013. The empirical results from a panel cointegration test confirm the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The long-run elasticities indicate that tourism investment has a significant positive and negative impact on tourism development and CO₂ emissions, respectively. Finally, the short-run heterogeneous panel non-causality test results show the evidence of bidirectional causality between tourism investment and tourism revenue. These results therefore suggest that tourism investments not only increase tourism revenue but also reduce CO₂ emissions. Given these findings, we suggest the policy makers of the EU nations to initiate more effective policies to increase the tourism investments. The increasing tourism investments will allow the industry to grow further by ensuring sustainable tourism development across the EU member countries.     

Tourism and regional income inequality: Evidence from China

This study examines the role of tourism development in reducing regional income inequality in China. First, the theoretical foundation for how tourism affects regional income inequality is discussed. Second, based on the conditional convergence framework, this study proposes a spatiotemporal autoregressive model to capture spatial and temporal dependence as well as spatial heterogeneity. Tourism development is introduced as a conditional convergence factor in an attempt to examine whether the convergence speed is accelerated by regional tourism development. Third, the effects of international and domestic tourism in narrowing regional inequality are compared both globally and locally. The empirical results indicate that tourism development contributes significantly to the reduction of regional inequality, with domestic tourism making a greater contribution than international tourism.