Consumption asset pricing and the term structure

We investigate the relationship between consumption and the term structure using U.K. interest rate data. We demonstrate that the term structure contains information about future economic activity as implied by the benchmark time separable power utility consumption based capital asset pricing model (C-CAPM) since the yield spread has forecasting power for future consumption growth. Further, we analyze the ability of this benchmark and two alternative models which adopt utility functions characterized by non-separability, namely, the extension to the habit formation model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) proposed by Wachter (2006) and the housing C-CAPM proposed by Piazzesi, Schneider and Tuzel (2007). Our findings are supportive of the habit formation specification of Wachter (2006), other models fail to yield economically plausible parameter values.     

The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging

We analyze the effects of anticipated population aging within a general equilibrium R&D-based endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. In doing so we model aging as a rise of longevity and a simultaneous drop in fertility. In contrast to an unanticipated rise of longevity, consumers increase their savings and reduce their consumption long before the rise of longevity actually happens. This implies that individuals save more in anticipation of aging, which puts downward pressure on the interest rate and raises economic growth through an increase in R&D incentives. Irrespective of the anticipation effect, the economic change at impact is not smooth but still features a kink in consumption.     

Special functions for the study of economic dynamics: The case of the Lucas-Uzawa model

The special functions are intensively used in mathematical physics to solve differential systems. We argue that they should be most useful in economic dynamics, notably in the assessment of the transition dynamics of endogenous economic growth models. We illustrate our argument on the famous Lucas-Uzawa model, which we solve by the means of Gaussian hypergeometric functions. We show how the use of Gaussian hypergeometric functions allows for an explicit representation of the equilibrium dynamics of all variables in level. The parameters of the involved hypergeometric functions are identified using the Pontryagin conditions arising from the underlying optimization problems. In contrast to the pre-existing approaches, our method is global and does not rely on dimension reduction.     

Optimal consumption choice with intolerance for declining standard of living

We reconsider the optimal consumption choice of investors who do not tolerate any decline in their consumption rate. We connect the demand behavior of such agents to the behavior of standard time-additive agents. With consumption ratcheting, the investor demands the running maximum of the optimal plan a conventional time-additive investor with lower initial wealth would choose. The analysis is carried out for Lévy processes, in particular for jump-diffusions. We obtain explicit solutions for all Bernoulli utility functions, not only those of CRRA type.     

Explicit investment rules with time-to-build and uncertainty

We establish explicit socially optimal rules for an irreversible investment decision with time-to-build and uncertainty. Assuming a price sensitive demand function with a random intercept, we provide comparative statics and economic interpretations for three models of demand (arithmetic Brownian, geometric Brownian, and the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross). Committed capacity, that is, the installed capacity plus the investment in the pipeline, must never drop below the best predictor of future demand, minus two biases. The discounting bias takes into account the fact that investment is paid upfront for future use; the precautionary bias multiplies a type of risk aversion index by the local volatility. Relying on the analytical forms, we discuss in detail the economic effects. For example, the impact of volatility on the optimal investment is negligible in some cases. It vanishes in the CIR model for long delays, and in the GBM model for high discount rates.     

Linear learning in changing environments

The decision maker receives signals imperfectly correlated with an unobservable state variable and must take actions whose payoffs depend on the state. The state randomly changes over time. In this environment, we examine the performance of simple linear updating rules relative to Bayesian learning. We show that a range of parameters exists for which linear learning results in exactly the same decisions as Bayesian learning, although not in the same beliefs. Outside this parameter range, we use simulations to demonstrate that the consumption level attainable under the optimal linear rule is virtually indistinguishable from the one attainable under Bayes’ rule, although the respective decisions will not always be identical. These results suggest that simple rules of thumb can have an advantage over Bayesian updating when more complex calculations are more costly to perform than less complex ones. We demonstrate the implications of such an advantage in an evolutionary model where agents “learn to learn.”     

GENUINE SAVINGS AND SUSTAINABILITY

Genuine Savings (GS) has emerged as the leading economic indicator of sustainable economic development at the country level. It derives from the literatures on weak sustainability, wealth accounting and national income accounting. We discuss the theoretical underpinnings of GS, focusing on the relationship between changes in a nation's extended capital stock and the future path of consumption. The indicator has entered widespread use propelled by the World Bank's publications, despite its varying performance as a predictor for future consumption. Notwithstanding the extensive body of literature reviewed, promising future research avenues are identified.     

Environmental quality standards: A general equilibrium analysis

The increasing importance of pollution controls as a part of government regulatory activities has motivated considerable concern about the economic impact of these activities. This question is of considerable importance, because environmental quality goals are sometimes in conflict with other objectives such as full employment and economic growth. Policy-makers are thus faced with the task of identifying and measuring the trade-offs between these various objectives. But the measurement of these objectives requires information on their economic impacts. This paper develops a general equilibrium model with pollution specifications which can be used to identify the economic impacts of pollution-control policies. The particular pollution-control policy addressed is an environmental standards approach. The model is based on a technique that combines an explicit representation of consumer demand behaviour vis-à-vis linear aggregate demand functions with activity analysis.     

理性预期理论及其对扩大内需政策的指导意义

20世纪六七十年代,在对凯恩斯主义经济学的批判中,理性预期学派产生发展起来。文中在对理性预期主要观点介绍的基础上,分析了公众预期对我国近期扩大内需政策效果的影响,并在此基础上提出了政府应避免非理性干预的论断。     

ANALYSING IMPLICATIONS OF LIMITED WATER AVAILABILITY FOR GREAT BARRIER REEF CATCHMENTS

Dependence on water is one of the factors that can determine regional vulnerability in Australia. Climate change is predicted to change rainfall patterns in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region, and scarce water resources have the potential to make regional Queensland economies increasingly vulnerable. Understanding which economic sectors depend on water as an input factor helps in understanding sectoral and regional vulnerability, and thus in guiding regional policy aimed at structural change. Using a regional Queensland Input–Output (IO) model, this paper integrates water consumption of the GBR region and then compares monetary IO multipliers with water consumption multipliers. We argue that these IO multipliers can inform regional decision makers about potential future regional vulnerability by taking into account limited water resources.     

THE NORMALIZED CES PRODUCTION FUNCTION: THEORY AND EMPIRICS

Abstract The elasticity of substitution between capital and labor and, in turn, the direction of technical change are critical parameters in many fields of economics. Until recently, though, the application of production functions with specifically non‐unitary substitution elasticities (i.e., non‐Cobb–Douglas) was hampered by empirical and theoretical uncertainties. As recently revealed, ‘normalization’ of production‐technology systems holds out the promise of resolving many of those uncertainties. We survey and assess the intrinsic links between production (as conceptualized in a production function), factor substitution (as made most explicit in Constant Elasticity of Substitution functions) and normalization (defined by the fixing of baseline values for relevant variables). First, we recall how the normalized Constant Elasticity of Substitution function came into existence and what normalization implies for its formal properties. Then we deal with the key role of normalization in recent advances in the theory of business cycles and of economic growth. Next, we discuss the benefits normalization brings for empirical estimation and empirical growth research. Finally, we identify promising areas of future research.     

The economics of retail firms

This paper identifies retail firms as an economic institution which delivers explicit products or services to consumer together with a variety of distribution services that determine the levels of distribution costs experienced by consumers in their purchase activities. The demand for the retailer's product is derived from a household production model in which the levels of distribution services provided by the retailer play the role of fixed inputs in the household's production functions. The supply of the retailer's product is derived from a joint cost function which is non-decreasing in the levels of distribution services provided. Profit-maximizing behavior in monopolistically competive markets shows that retail firms have special economic incentives to become complex organizations by integrating backwards, offering multiple explicit products and operating in more than one market. In addition, monopolistically competitive retail firms in long-run equilibrium will exhibit excess capacity, price dispersion and product choice in distribution services.     

The asymmetric behavior of household consumption under the business cycle

In this study, we examine whether and to what extent the pattern of household consumption is asymmetrically sensitive to economic changes. We use a threshold model with error correction to characterize household consumption under the business cycle. Using data from the 1979–2014 Survey of Family Income and Expenditure in Taiwan, we find that household consumption has pro-cyclical characteristics during the business cycle. More importantly, household consumption responds asymmetrically to economic fluctuations such that changes in consumption tend to be larger during expansions than during downturns. Furthermore, the nature of this asymmetry differs across household income quantiles.     

Consumption paths under prospect utility in an optimal growth model

This paper studies the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of optimal economic growth in the presence of loss aversion and habit formation. The representative agent's preferences for consumption can be gradually varied between the standard constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) case and Kahneman and Tversky's prospect utility. We find that the transitional dynamics of optimal consumption paths differ distinctly from the standard model, in particular consumption smoothing is more pronounced. We also show that prospect utility can cause the economy to remain in a steady state with low consumption and low capital.     

Growth effects of annuities and government transfers in perpetual youth models

We show that in overlapping generations endogenous growth models with uncertain lifetime, the introduction of government transfers always increases economic growth by crowding out the private annuity market and increasing accidental bequests. In particular, if the government imposes a flat-rate consumption tax (which is neutral to the consumption–saving margin), uses part of the tax revenue for unproductive purposes, and rebates the rest equally across agents as a lump-sum transfer, the economy grows faster and improves the welfare of future generations.     

Individual new energy consumption and economic growth in China

We document the one-way relationship between individual new energy consumption and economic growth in China through the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model from 2004 to 2017. Our results show that individual new energy consumption has a positive effect on economic growth. Moreover, the urbanization rate, import and export trade volume and foreign direct investment all affect the individual new energy consumption in the short run. The outcome of the causality test reveals a one-way Granger causal relationship from individual new energy consumption to economic growth, from the urbanization rate, and from the import and export trade volume to new energy consumption.     

Multiproduct price competition with heterogeneous consumers and nonconvex costs

This paper extends the oligopolistic model of price competition to environments with multiple goods, heterogeneous consumers, and arbitrary continuous cost functions. A Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies with an endogenous sharing rule is proven to exist. It is also shown that, in environments with fixed costs and constant marginal costs, all (symmetric and asymmetric) equilibria exhibit price dispersion across stores. Furthermore, the paper identifies scenarios in which prices will necessarily be random. In these markets, stores keep each other guessing because, given the fixed costs, they would incur a loss if their price strategies were anticipated and beaten by competitors. This is interpreted as an important economic feature that is possibly behind random price promotions such as weekly specials.     

Policy change and learning in the RBC model

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy with econometric forecasts of future wages and interest rates. Dynamics under learning can have large impact effects and a gradual hump-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations reflect periods of excessive optimism or pessimism, followed by subsequent corrections.     

Optimal consumption and investment under partial information

We consider a stock market model where prices satisfy a stochastic differential equation with a stochastic drift process. The investor’s objective is to maximize the expected utility of consumption and terminal wealth under partial information; the latter meaning that investment decisions are based on the knowledge of the stock prices only. We derive explicit representations of optimal consumption and trading strategies using Malliavin calculus. The results apply to both classical models for the drift process, a mean reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and a continuous time Markov chain. The model can be transformed to a complete market model with full information. This allows to use results on optimization under convex constraints which are used in the numerical part for the implementation of more stable strategies. Supported by the Austrian Science Fund FWF, project P17947-N12. We thank two anonymous referees for their comments which led to a considerable improvement of the paper.     

A cybernetic model of work-life balance through time

Answering a call for a more fully developed concept of work-life balance (WLB), we use person-environment fit and control theories to develop a model of WLB incorporating the work, family, and personal domains. We propose a cybernetic model which recognizes that individuals have a desired balance among the three domains that serves as a standard against which they compare their perceptions of WLB at any given point in time. Our cybernetic model suggests that individuals will seek to restore balance when a negative imbalance is perceived. Further we propose that role senders and resources in the domains, as well as anticipated future WLB and retrospective perceptions of WLB also affect desired balance and actions. We discuss the implications of the proposed model for future research and practice.