拉丁美洲：一个富有活力的市场

在经过“失去的1980年代”、“好不到哪儿去的1990年代”后，近几年，拉丁美洲进入了40多年来最好的发展阶段，拉美的经济增长强劲，通货膨胀得到控制，外汇储备稳定增长。根据联合国拉美经委会统计数据显示，2003-2006年，拉美的GDP共增长了17．6％，平均每年增长4．3％。早在20世纪70年代，中国就已经与很多拉美国家建立、巩固和发展了外交关系。     

Inflation and Welfare in Latin America

This paper follows Bailey (J Polit Econ 64:93–110, 1956) and Lucas (Econometrica 68:247–274, 2000) and estimates the welfare cost of inflation for 17 Latin American economies. We use annual data, from 1955 to 2000, and recent advances in the field of applied econometrics to estimate the inflation rate elasticity of money demand and report significantly high and differential welfare cost estimates for these economies.     

Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean

This study constructs a new data set on unemployment rates in Latin America and the Caribbean and then explores the determinants of unemployment. We compare different countries, finding that unemployment is influenced by the size of the rural population and that the effects of government regulations are generally weak. We also examine large, persistent increases in unemployment over time, finding that they are caused by contractions in aggregate demand. These demand contractions result from either disinflationary monetary policy or the defense of an exchange-rate peg in the face of capital flight. Our evidence supports hysteresis theories in which short-run changes in unemployment influence the natural rate.     

The role of applied research institutes in the transfer of technology in Latin America

This paper explores the role of applied research institutes in the transfer of technology to developing countries. Several hypotheses about technological change in developed economies are extended to this context. The sources of projects, criteria used in selecting projects, information used in the course of projects, and steps taken toward use of project results are examined for a sample of 20 projects from four institutes. Conclusions are drawn concerning successful strategies for identifying needs for technology transfer and for implementing results of projects conducted in research institutes. The findings are that projects where significant resources were devoted to defining issues and market needs, providing for interpersonal contact and communication, and developing personnel through work in firms or applied laboratories in other countries were most likely to produce useful results. Increased emphasis on these concerns could have high laverage in expanding the importance of research institutes' activities both in generating and adapting technology, and in transferring technology successfully.     

Synergies and competition: Export survival in Africa and Latin America

Using firm-level export data from six African (Burkina Faso and Senegal) and Latin American (Guatemala, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay) countries, we examine factors that determine the survival of export flows. We explore the effects on export survival of changes in the number of home-country exporters serving the same destination, firm-level export diversification, and country-level factors. Unlike previous studies, we find that export survival rates decrease with the number of co-exporters selling the same product to the same country. We also find that the relationship between firm-level product diversification and export flow survival is hump-shaped: firms that do not diversify or are highly diversified have lower survival of product-destination flows. Our findings are robust to various alternative specifications. The main findings hold across both regions and all countries. However, the number of co-exporters negatively affects survival in Africa more than in Latin America.     

The effects of inflation on the predictability of price changes in Latin America: Some estimates and policy implications

This paper argues that the relationship between price variability and inflation in high-inflation countries should be estimated on a frequent basis and that rational expectations are the appropriate formulation for predicting inflation. Analysis of seven Latin American countries, taking these factors into account, suggests that higher inflation contributes to the difficulty of predicting price changes. The impact is more moderate than that found in previous studies, however, indicating that less concern may be warranted about the possible stagflationary effects of expansionary policies.     

Purchasing power parity in Latin America: A co-integration analysis

Zusammenfassung Kaufkraftparit?t in Lateinamerika. Eine Kointegrationsanalyse.- Die jüngsten Entwicklungen der ?konometrischen Analyse und Zeitreihentechniken liefern neue Interpretationen vieler ?konomischer Theorien einschlie?lich einer der ?ltesten Doktrinen - der Kaufkraftparit?t. Der Verfasser testet, ob die Kaufkraftparit?t zwischen neun lateinamerikanischen L?ndern und den USA besteht, indem er einige der neuen Techniken einsetzt. Tests auf Nicht-Station?rit?t und Kointegration werden auf den nominalen Wechselkurs sowie das inl?ndische und das ausl?ndische (US-amerikanische) Preisniveau angewendet. Die Ergebnisse sprechen für die Gültigkeit der Kaufkraftparit?t zwischen den untersuchten L?ndern und den USA.

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Résumé La parité du pouvoir d’achat en Amérique latine. Une analyse de co-intégration. - Les développements récents aux techniques de l’économétrie et des séries temporelles approvisionnent des interprétations nouvelles à beaucoup de théories et, par cela, aussi à l’hypothèse de pouvoir d’achat (Ppa). Dans cette étude l’auteur examine les Ppa de neuf pays en Amérique latine en comparaison avec les Etats Unis en utilisant quelques-unes des techniques nouvelles. On applique des tests non-stationnaires et de co-intégration au taux de change nominal ainsi qu’au niveau des prix à l’intérieur et à l’étranger (Etats Unis). Les résultats donnent évidence de la Ppa entre ces pays et les Etats Unis.

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Resumen La paridad del poder de compra en América Latina: un análisis de cointegración. - Desarrollos recientes de la econometría y de las técnicas de análisis de series de tiempo posibilitan interpretaciones nuevas de muchas teorías económicas, incluyendo a una de las más antiguas, a la de la paridad del poder de compra (PPP). En este trabajo se hace un test de la teoria de la PPP en nueve países latinoamericanos frente al dólar USA utilizando algunas de estas técnicas. Se aplican tests de no estacionaridad y cointegración a la tasa de cambio nominal y al nivel agregado de precios en estos países y en los EE UU. Los resultados muestran evidencia en favor de la PPP para estos países y los EE UU.

     

中国与拉美:以信任为基础的区域合作

中国和拉美不具备地缘优势、价值观认同、文化渊源等先赋性信任的基础,双方通过官民结合,多边与双边兼顾外交建立了交往性信任关系.而美国因素、拉美原因、中拉经贸都可能对双方关系造成负面影响.需塑造共同利益、创新合作模式、加强软实力建设,强化双方的信任关系,形成中拉区域意识,推动双方展开更深层次的务实合作.     

Trade Specialization in Latin America: The Impact of China and India

This paper examines the extent to which the growth of China and India in world markets is affecting the patterns of trade specialization in Latin American (LA) economies. We construct a measure of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) by 3-digit ISIC sector, country, and year. This RCA accounts for both imports and exports. The empirical analyses explore the correlation between the RCAs of LA and the two Asian economies. Econometric estimates suggest that the specialization pattern of LA—with the exception of Mexico—has been moving in opposite direction to the trade specialization pattern of China and India. Labor-intensive sectors (both unskilled and skilled) probably have been negatively affected by the growing presence of China and India in world markets, while natural resource and scientific knowledge intensive sectors have probably benefited from China and India’s growth since 1990. JEL no.  F10, F14     

Rural Nonfarm Employment and Incomes in Latin America: Overview and Policy Implications

Rural nonfarm employment (RNFE) and incomes (RNFI) are crucial to Latin American rural households. The 11 rural household income studies in this volume, reviewed in this paper, use 1990s data and show that RNFI averages 40% of rural incomes. RNFI and RNFE have grown quickly over the past three decades. The review of evidence provided some surprising departures from traditional images of nonfarm activities of Latin American rural households. In terms of shares of rural incomes: (1) nonfarm wage incomes exceed self-employment incomes; (2) RNFI far exceeds farm wage incomes; (3) local RNFI far exceeds migration incomes; (4) Service-sector RNFI far exceeds manufactures RNFI. These findings suggest the need for more development program attention to wage employment in the service sector, versus the traditional focus on small enterprise manufactures. Moreover, poor households and zones tend to have higher shares in their incomes but lower absolute levels of RNFI as compared to richer households and zones. The RNFE of the poor tend to be the low-paid nonfarm equivalent of semi-subsistence farming. Raising the capacity of the poor to participate in the better-paid types of RNFE is crucial — via employment skills training, education, infrastructure, credit. Finally, RNFE has grown fastest and been most poverty-alleviating where there are dynamic growth motors, in particular in the agricultural sector, but also in tourism, links to urban areas, mining and forestry. This means that developing RNF jobs cannot be done at the expense of programs promoting agricultural development.