基于公共产品供给理论的地方政府投资制度改革——以城市轨道交通投资为例

政府投资主要是提供公共产品,但仅由政府提供会出现不经济。公共产品的内涵分析也表明私人是可以供给公共产品的,但要解决公共产品外部性问题。以城市轨道交通投资为例分析,发现通过外部收益内部化我国香港地铁实现了盈利,内地政府借鉴其经验,大力引进社会资金投资地铁,减轻了资金压力,提高了投资的效率。这表明通过分析投资对象特点和制度安排是能够改变当前政府投资制度的,即社会资金是愿意进入公共产品供给的,政府是可以从某些领域退出的。     

Learning and the capital goods sector under free trade: The case of Hongkong

Attention is focused on technological change and attendant learning processes in the more industrialized Third World countries. The importance of relatively simple learning processes is stressed and the conditions necessary for facilitating more complex forms of learning - particularly protection and promotion - are examined. Here it is shown that the capital goods sector is of central importance. The case-study material deals with the machine- producing sector in Hong Kong, chosen as the representative case of free trade and minimal government intervention, and comparison is made with learning processes in a number of other more industrialized Third World Countries including India, Argentina and Taiwan. In the final section the implications of the discussion of learning for theories and techniques of investment allocation - including social cost-benefit analysis, the effective rate of protection and the related domestic cost of foreign exchange - are examined.     

Fostering the capital-goods sector in LDCs

The conventional arguments in favour of the production of capital goods by LDCs are based on comparative advantage, the possibility of designs appropriate to indigenous factor proportions, and the externalities conferred on other sectors. These and other arguments are inducing the governments of many middle-income countries to more intensively foster the development of the machinery sector. This paper examines the analytic and empirical bases of the conventional arguments and finds a considerably more complex picture than that contained in earlier studies.     

Renminbi internationalisation: precedents and implications

Although it is commonly assumed that there are no precedents against which to benchmark Renminbi (RMB), this study argues that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) own development experience provides a useful perspective on the internationalisation debate. This study indicates that lessons can be learnt from both the successes and the shortcomings of efforts to internationalise the RMB in the 1970s. During this period, state-owned banks in Hong Kong played a central role in mobilising finance for foreign trade. Access to Hong Kong’s financial institutions allowed the PRC to maximise international trade receipts while minimising the risk of undue swings in capital flows. This study shows that although China no longer faces foreign exchange scarcity, economic reforms have not yet resolved vulnerabilities in China’s financial institutions. As a consequence, Hong Kong has retained its role in mitigating the risks of internationalisation and as a globalising force for China’s banking sector more generally.     

前海深港现代服务业合作区港资银行准入法律问题探讨

金融业是前海合作区重点发展的行业,推进深港金融业的紧密合作,必须创造足够的政策优势空间,吸引更多的港资金融机构在此聚集。内地对港资银行的市场准入要求较高,应参照香港银行业准入标准,通过签订新的CEPA补充协议,并由深圳市行使经济特区立法权,适当放宽在前海设立机构的港资银行的各项准入门槛。     

FDI部门流向、Mazumdar假说与经济增长:基于中国数据的实证分析

根据Mazumdar（1996）的观点,贸易增长机制的发生取决于一国的贸易结构：进口资本品出口消费品将降低资本品价格和折旧率,从而加速资本积累并促进经济增长。围绕这一问题,本文认为．Mazumdar的贸易增长机制能否发挥作用依赖于一国所吸引的FDI的部门流向,FDI流向资本品生产,将减少资本品进口和降低资本品价格并改善一国贸易条件,这时折旧率的降低在更大程度上促进经济增长。Mazumdar假说才得以成立;FDI流向消费品生产,将强化消费品出口并相对恶化一国贸易条件。从而抵消了资本品价格的下降带来的好处。运用中国数据和VAR模型检验。结果显示：中国的贸易结构符合Mazumdar的观点。却没有对经济增长产生显著影响。原因之一在于FDI主要流向劳动密集型消费品生产和加工贸易型机电产品生产,使得FDI所带来的贸易条件相对恶化效应大于资本品价格下降效应。     

Output and productivity comparisons of the Singapore and Hong Kong wholesale and retail trade sectors, 2001–2008

This paper employs the industry of origin approach to compare value‐added and labour productivity of Singapore and Hong Kong's wholesale and retail sectors for the period 2001–08. The direct comparison between these two economies was motivated by the statement of the Singapore Government that its services sector, especially the retail sector, lagged behind Hong Kong's productivity levels. The results show that since 2005, Singapore's wholesale and retail sector performance in terms of labour productivity has been below Hong Kong's level, largely due to the poor performance of its retail sector arising from an influx of foreign workers. Results from total factor productivity analysis of these two economies also suggest that Hong Kong's better performance (since 2005) was largely due to its ability to employ more educated and trained workers with limited use of capital. The results suggest that polices that have worked in Hong Kong may not work in Singapore because its population is more diverse, which poses a challenge to policymakers in raising its productivity level.     

Costs and Benefits of Export-Oriented Foreign Investment: The Case of China

The costs and benefits of export-oriented FDI have been discussed by Helleiner (1973, 1998), Watanabe (1972), Sharpston (1975), and others. Processed exports generated from FDI have constituted over half of the exports of Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and China. Despite the importance of processed exports, empirical studies of their costs and benefits are difficult due to lack of data, especially on transfer earnings. Data on the division of benefits between the source and host countries are scarce and unreliable. This paper examines the costs and benefits of export-oriented foreign investment for China. China has been highly successful in exporting and in attracting FDI, especially export-oriented FDI from Hong Kong. Since 1993, China has become the second largest recipient of FDI in the world after the US, and Hong Kong has become the world's fourth largest source of FDI after the US, UK, and Germany. China's processed exports are largely re-exported via Hong Kong. As a result, good data on the total value-added of processed exports for Mainland China and for Hong Kong are available. It is found that the rate of value-added for Mainland China is relatively low compare with that for Hong Kong, indicating transfer pricing and absence of linkages in the mainland. This appears to be due to the rigidity of China's economic system which hampers backward and forward linkages. The mainland is thus dependent on Hong Kong for many services in the value-added chain. However, the rate of value-added for China has increased substantially since 1996, indicating an increase in both backward and forward linkages.     

One country,two currencies: The adoption of the Hong Kong currency board, 1983

Currency boards have had an enduring attraction as a solution to exchange rate and monetary credibility for small open economies, despite few successful examples. In this context, the case of Hong Kong stands out for its longevity; it survived the handover to China, the Asian financial crises in 1997, and the global crises in 2007–8 and 2020. The 1983 currency crisis and the decision to link the exchange rate to the US$ is usually treated as an outcome of local political uncertainty due to the Sino-British negotiations which set the framework for how Hong Kong would fit with the rest of China after 1997. We present fresh archival evidence from Hong Kong and London to reveal the year-long debates over Hong Kong's monetary system after a drop in the exchange rate in September 1982 and to demonstrate how most of the protagonists in Hong Kong and London came only reluctantly to accept the idea of re-pegging the dollar once public expectations had been raised. We also show how the mixture of currency and banking instability affected the terms of the negotiations in 1982 and 1983 and set the framework for the one country, two currencies system that prevails today.     

东亚产品内分工中香港角色转化及其定位

20世纪90年代末以来,以中国为轴心的东亚产品内分工体系迅猛发展。香港凭借独特的地缘优势,通过发挥贸易平台功能、跨国机构集聚功能、外资中转功能和资本市场筹资功能,助推内地跻身东亚产品内分工体系的轴心地位。     

Specialization and Welfare in the Presence of Imperfectly Integrated Capital Markets and Learning-by-doing

We study a two-sector, two-period model with learning externalities in the modern sector and imperfectly integrated capital markets. We find that higher capital market integration lowers the requirements on the learning pattern necessary for free trade to lead to an equilibrium with maximal specialization in modern sector activities. We further find that the equilibrium with maximal specialization in modern sector activities Pareto dominates, if it exists, any other free trade equilibrium, and that autarky can Pareto dominate free trade if capital markets are poorly integrated, even when there is maximal specialization in modern sector activities under free trade.

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TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO CHINA BY HONG KONG'S CROSS‐BORDER GARMENT FIRMS

Hong Kong manufacturers have historically been one of the main sources of foreign direct investment to China, but their contribution to the transfer of technology to the mainland has been questioned due to the generally labor‐ rather than capital‐intensive, low‐value‐adding activities they perform there. Using data from eighty‐four Hong Kong‐based garment manufacturers that have invested directly in mainland China, this paper examines the role of Hong Kong FDI in the transfer of technology to China. Analyses show that Hong Kong garment firms are in fact human‐capital‐intensive and are endowed with valuable managerial technology and, moreover, act as effective channels for the transfer of such technology to mainland China.     

Development and prospects of capital goods production in revolutionary Cuba

Capital goods have played an important role in the industrialization process of the leading industrial nations of today and the absence of a capital goods sector is often considered a serious handicap to industrialization in the developing countries. Cuba had practically no capital goods industries prior to the Revolution in 1959 and in the 1960s much hope was vested in the rapid creation of such a sector. As this study shows, however, this was a much more complicated process than envisaged. After much frustration in the 1960s, Cuba managed in the 1970s to create the base for a dynamic capital goods industry, but only subsequent to a trial and error process of “learning by doing,” especially as concerned spare parts. Today Cuba has a relatively important capital goods industry, considering the limited size of the country, and is particularly strong in the production of agricultural machinery. The prospects for the future are quite good in light of the existence of a highly skilled and adequately trained labor force.     

Trade Protection and Capital Imports in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector

Several studies have investigated the link between trade protection and productivity in developing economies. Others have looked into the relationship between technology imports and in-house technology production. This paper contributes to the literature by estimating the effect of trade protection on purchases of foreign capital goods for a panel of Mexican manufacturing plants. Product-market tariffs lower the probability that a plant will import capital goods, while both output and input tariffs are associated with smaller quantities of capital imports. Capital imports are also associated with higher productivity. Thus, trade barriers may indirectly lower productivity by inhibiting the importation of foreign technologies through capital goods.     

粤港澳大湾区创业风险投资网络演化及影响因素研究

创业风险投资是科技企业获取权益资本融资的一项重要金融制度安排，在粤港澳大湾区和社会主义先行示范区的国家战略规划下，大力发展创业风险投资能推动粤港澳大湾区国际科创中心建设，进一步发挥金融对实体经济的服务与支持作用。文章基于社会网络分析视角，通过构建大湾区创业风险投资城市联系网络，从投资金额、项目分布、整体网络密度、核心-边缘结构等方面分析大湾区创业风险投资网络的时空演化特征，并探究其影响因素。研究发现：大湾区创业风险投资发展顺应宏观环境的波动，城市群内部形成港深广三大集聚中心，存在显著的空间、阶段分布不均衡的特征；港深广形塑了大湾区创业风险投资的网络关系，网络规模、联系日益加强，并呈现出"东密西疏"的放射状格局；港深广的集聚效应显著，边缘城市之间的投资联系仍较弱；经济环境、创业企业、创投机构、制度因素对大湾区创业风险投资联系有显著影响，其中经济及制度作用强度占主导。     

产品内分工的生产组织模式选择——基于中国产业角度的实证研究

本文基于不完全契约和交易成本的视角,构建了产业层面的产品内分工生产组织模式选择的理论模型,对跨国公司在选择中间品供应商时的生产组织模式进行了分析,并运用中国制造业的数据加以实证检验。结论表明:中间品行业的有形资本密集度越高,跨国公司使用垂直FDI的倾向越高;中间品行业的人力资本密集度越高、行业的市场厚度越大、沉没成本越大以及中间品市场环境越完善,跨国公司使用外包获取中间品的倾向越高。基于此本文通过实证分析指出:我国作为东道国在吸引垂直FDI和跨国外包时,资本密集度高的产业应优先吸收FDI;人力资本丰富、市场厚度大且沉没成本大的产业在吸收外包方面有优势,应优先发展跨国外包,这对中国目前新兴起的OFDI也提供了一定的借鉴意义。     

Corruption,costs, and family: Chinese capital flight, 1984–2014

Since 1984, the foreign debt of the Peoples' Republic of China has increased at a greater rate than would be explained by changes in the country's current account, foreign direct investment and reserve holdings. This pattern is consistent with large-scale outflow of financial capital, commonly referred to as capital flight. Since 2005, capital flight has accelerated reaching $425 billion (plus or minus $60 billion) in 2014 alone. This study provides three estimates for capital flight from China for the period 1984 through 2014 using both Cuddington's balance of payments and more inclusive residual measures. These measures are adjusted to reflect the legitimate assets of the Chinese banking industry, mis-invoicing of China's trade with its major trading partners (especially Hong Kong), exchange rate changes, and the failure of official debt data to capture certain bank transactions. Based on these estimates, it is concluded that capital controls have little long-term effect on the volume of capital flight, Hong Kong is increasingly a pipeline for capital flight from the mainland, and that ‘traditional’ explanations do not apply to China's capital flight over the last decade. Finally, corruption, transaction costs, and facilitating migration are considered as possible explanations of the recent acceleration of Chinese capital flight.     

Are stronger executive incentives associated with cross-listing? Evidence from China

This study examines whether firms incorporated in mainland China benefit from cross-listing in Hong Kong, China. The Hong Kong Stock Market has more stringent rules regarding corporate governance and a better system of investor protection than the mainland market. Hong Kong companies generally provide strong incentives to executives via equity-based compensation. Have cross-listed companies learned from Hong Kong firms about adopting these strong executive incentives? The evidence from this study suggests that changes in top executive compensation are more sensitive to sales growth in cross-listed firms than they are in mainland firms without cross-listing. However, compared to Hong Kong firms, cross-listed firms are less sensitive to stock returns. Further, this study shows that it is necessary to differentiate between state-owned companies and private companies, as cross-listing may have a greater impact on executive incentives in state-owned companies than it does in private companies.     

Government budget,public-sector wages and capital taxes in a small open economy: A Hong Kong case

This paper examines the welfare implications of adjustments in public-sector wages and capital tax rates for a small open economy in a general equilibrium setting. The individually and jointly optimal wage and tax policies are derived and interpreted. Facing reductions in land sales and falls in foreign interest rates, a cut in public workers' pay is needed to make their wage comparable to the private sector and a hike in capital taxes is recommended for a budgetary consideration. Using a computable general equilibrium model for Hong Kong, we numerically evaluate the various optimal policies which not only confirm the theoretical results but also provide quantitative estimates of the optimal policy variables.     

Bilateral tax agreement and FDI inflows: Evidence from Hong Kong investment in the Mainland China

This paper explains the changes in the composition of the source countries or regions of FDI in China from the perspective of taxation. Based on FDI data from 2003 to 2012, the empirical test, employing the difference-in-differences (DID) model, shows that, after the implementation of the tax agreement between the mainland and Hong Kong in 2007, FDI from Hong Kong increased significantly. After the integration of domestic and foreign-funded enterprise income tax systems in 2008, Hong Kong capital inflows increased even more drastically. The extended analyses show that, the substantial increase in Hong Kong capital after the implementation of this bilateral tax agreement was partly related to the diversion effect of investment. MNCs might have diverted investment from other tax havens to the mainland via Hong Kong, resulting in a sharp increase in the amount and proportion of Hong Kong investment, whereas those of FDI from other tax havens have declined.