Dutch disease economics and the Colombian export boom

Dutch disease models predict a primary export boom may result in deindustrialization due to an appreciating real exchange rate. This paper examines the effects on the Colombian economy of large increases in foreign exchange earnings from coffee and illegal drug exports. As predicted by Dutch disease models, the relative price of nontraded goods rose and the real exchange rate appreciated. Once the boom was over, both were slow to return to previous levels. Nontraded sectors are shown to have increased their growth rates during the boom years, while traded goods experienced slower growth. Non-coffee exports also grew more slowly. Econometric estimation shows that the real exchange rate was sensitive to the price of coffee and fiscal expansion, that sectoral production adjusts to the exchange rate and level of absorption as predicted, and that non-coffee exports respond to changes in the real exchange rate and foreign demand. The paper concludes with a discussion of economic policy in response to the export boom.     

中国纸和纸板出口价格的影响因素分析

基于2000—2020年中国纸和纸板出口相关数据，运用多元回归模型实证分析影响中国纸和纸板出口价格的因素。研究发现，废纸进口价格、其他竞争者价格、出口集中度、汇率是影响中国纸和纸板出口价格的关键因素。对中国3类主要出口品种的异质性分析显示，箱纸板出口价格的主要影响因素为废纸进口价格、资金成本、出口集中度、汇率，涂布印刷纸出口价格受到木浆进口价格、全球涂布印刷纸需求量、对外贸易依存度、汇率的影响，包装盒纸出口价格受到废纸进口价格、对外贸易依存度、汇率、环境保护的共同影响。基于此提出提升纸和纸板出口竞争力的对策建议。     

外汇储备激增的后果及对策

近年来,我国外汇储备增长过快,外汇储备规模已经位居世界第一。庞大的外汇储备在体现我国经济实力的同时,也给我国经济发展带来了诸多负面影响。本文正是对我国外汇储备持续过快增长的经济后果进行研究。研究发现,外汇储备激增会带来储备的持有成本过高、加大人民币升值压力、引发通货膨胀和降低货币政策有效性等负面影响。为了解决我国外汇储备持续过快增长的问题,本文提出了调整外汇储备的结构、改变原有盲目鼓励出口和招商引资的政策、进一步完善我国外汇管理体制和建立新的外汇管理机构等对策。     

中国外汇储备积累实证研究

为了深刻理解我国外汇储备增长的原因并找出应对策略,本文用向量自回归方法研究了外汇储备积累的原因和机制。实证结果表明,中国实际利率高于外国、货币贬值、经济增长都是导致外汇储备增加的原因。短期内,实际利差、实际汇率、经济增长是影响外汇储备积累的主要因素;而在长期,开放度是影响外汇储备积累的决定性因素,这意味着国内贸易政策比经济活动对外汇储备积累有着更深层次的影响。其政策含义是:缓解外汇储备剧增对经济活动带来的不利影响,重要的是调整出口导向、吸引外资、结售汇等贸易政策,而非人民币升值。     

Gains from Indonesian Export Growth: Do Linkages Matter?

Intersectoral input linkages are often used as a criterion for assessing the developmental impact of export-led industrialisation, and for determining export development policy priorities. The authors argue, in the light of recent Indonesian experience, that this closed-economy planning tool is fundamentally flawed as a criterion for evaluating policy and performance in an export-oriented growth strategy For the period 1985 to 1995 we examine the relationship of sectoral input linkages both to the employment impact of Indonesian manufactured exports and to the contribution of these exports to net foreign exchange earnings. We find that linkages have no significant correlation—and indeed sometimes a negative one—with employment and net export growth     

Pricing to Market： Chinese Export Pricing to the USA after the Peg

In July 2005, the Chinese Government unpegged the RMB from the US dollar. As the RMB has followed a remarkably predictable appreciation over time, I examine the price of Chinese exports to the USA after unpegging the exchange rate. Results suggest that the Chinese industries with greater import market share were able to raise their prices after the removal of the pegged exchange rate regime; however, over time there is a significant deflationary trend. Chinese export prices tended to decrease under an unanticipated RMB appreciation; this effect was more pronounced for industries with more pricing flexibility. This suggests that Chinese exporters are consistently ＂pricing to market＂ and thus creating a significant foreign exchange policy implication. Specifically, a more flexible exchange rate regime will likely have little impact on the prices of Chinese exports to the USA but might increase the profit volatility of Chinese firms.     

An empirical analysis of ASEAN's labor-intensive exports

This paper investigates the factors affecting the demand for ASEAN's labor-intensive exports. Results obtained using a panel data set including exports to 25 countries indicate that an appreciation in ASEAN countries would substantially reduce exports of clothing, furniture, and footwear. In addition, an increase in foreign income and an appreciation among competitors would raise ASEAN's exports. These results indicate that profit margins for labor-intensive manufactures are thin and that slow growth abroad will curtail ASEAN's exports. These findings imply that policymakers should seek to promote domestic and regional demand, expand the technological base, and consider exchange rate coordination to mitigate “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies.     

The effect of oil price on China's exports

The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik [Rodrik, Dani, 2006. What's so special about China's exports? China and World Economy 14, 1–19.]'s measure of export competitiveness, together with the oil price, productivity, real exchange rate, and foreign industrial production over the monthly 1992–2005 period. The results suggest a stable relationship and yields slightly positive values for the price of oil and elastic coefficients for export competitiveness, along with the expected negative elasticity for the real exchange rate.     

中国汇率政策与货币政策的搭配研究

为了解决中国由于物价总水平持续上涨所产生的宏观经济内部失衡,以利率为主要工具的货币政策今年以来出现频繁变动。而用于解决由于外贸持续顺差所带来的外部失衡的人民币汇率政策却并没有及时地进行调整。因此,对中国货币政策和人民币汇率政策搭配是否合理的研究就成为实现中国宏观经济内外均衡的重要课题。本文就这一主题展开讨论并进行了实证分析,最后提出了改善这两大经济政策搭配的对策建议。     

Measuring the Competitiveness of China's Processed Exports

China's surplus in processing trade remains large. Processed exports are final goods produced using parts and components that are imported duty free. Because much of the value‐added of these exports comes from East Asia, exchange rates throughout the region should affect their foreign currency prices. This paper presents data on value‐added exchange rates for processed exports over the 1993–2013 period and reports that they significantly affect exports. While the renminbi appreciated 36 percent between the beginning of 2005 and the end of 2013, exchange rates in supply chain countries depreciated. This has mitigated the effect of the RMB appreciation on the price competitiveness of processed exports.     

Determinants of structural change in food exports from developing countries

Over the past three decades, there has been a rapid expansion of processed food exports, replacing traditional agriculture exports such as coffee and tea. However, this development and its policy implications have received little attention in the literature. This paper provides an overview of key characteristics and growth patterns of processed food exports in developing countries. The determinants of structural change towards processed food exports in developing countries are examined using panel data econometric analysis. The results suggest that trade policy openness, large domestic markets, good macroeconomic management—especially in terms of price stability—adequate financial support and infrastructure are the key factors influencing the shift towards processed food exports.     

我国对外贸易就业效应的区域差异分析——基于省级面板数据的检验

本文利用1978～2004年的省级面板数据,将我国划分为东、中、西三大区域,考察了对外贸易的就业效应。结果表明,出口对国内就业具有显著的正向影响,进口对国内就业具有地区性差异;长期来说,不能以出口为导向来解决我国的就业问题,调整进口商品的结构,对解决就业具有十分重要的意义;我国存在着严重的资本替代劳动现象,应该发展劳动密集型产业;1997年的亚洲金融危机对我国就业造成了显著的负面影响。这表明,解决我国的就业不能脱离其他一系列宏观经济政策,需要将对外贸易政策、产业政策和汇率政策纳入同一个分析框架中进行。     

Natural resources and non-cooperative trade policy

When looking at the conditions of trade in natural resources the world appears upside down: tariff protection in natural resources sectors is generally lower than for overall merchandise trade, while export restrictions are twice as likely as in other sectors. On the other hand, tariff escalation is significant in natural resources sectors, where materials in their raw state face, on average, lower duties than in their processed form. In this paper, we discuss how export taxes and tariff escalation may be the result of an uncooperative trade policy. Specifically, tariff escalation and export taxes can be “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies because governments may be tempted to use them to alter the relative price of exports to their advantage (terms-of-trade effect) or to expand the domestic processing industry at the expenses of foreign production (production relocation effect). In equilibrium, these policies offset each other in a Prisoners’ Dilemma situation, where trade is inefficiently low.     

Determinants of Real Chinese GDP 1978–2014

In 2014, the IMF reported that China became the largest economy in the world according to Purchasing Power Parity rates. This study aims to explain the Chinese economic miracle. It focuses on frequently suggested factors influencing China’s real gross domestic product (GDP), such as export promotion, exchange rate policy, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The paper employs the Bounds test of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to test for cointegration. Once cointegration is established, Granger Causality is investigated using the vector autoregressive model and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) method. Two different combinations of the real macroeconomic variables exports, exchange rate, imports, and FDI were employed to examine Granger causal relationships. All explanatory variables, except for the exchange rate, were found to have plausible relationships with GDP. The exchange rate and GDP relationship was unexpected; a Renminbi appreciation was associated with an increase in GDP. To investigate this paradox, a third ARDL model was estimated with exports as the dependent variable and the exchange rate, world GDP, and FDI as the independent variables. In this model, we found evidence of cointegration and a plausible relationship between real exports and the real exchange rate. Exchange rate devaluation increased exports and thus indirectly increased GDP. Such findings help to resolve the unexpected results. Nonetheless, according to the Granger causality tests the established statistical evidence is rather weak. We found that both the exchange rate and FDI are no longer strong drivers of economic growth in China.     

我国经济结构失衡的内需与外需原因分析

我国已是一个经济大国,内需应是经济增长的主导力量。外需快速增长给我国央行货币发行与管理模式的有效性带来挑战,使我国经济结构失衡加剧,不利于实现经济增长向内需主导型模式的转变,也不利于经济发展水平与国内居民消费水平之间做到良性循环。要建立起以内需为主导的经济发展模式,就必须促进经济增长由主要依靠投资、出口拉动向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变,这是我国实现经济长期、持续、协调发展的必然要求,也是贯彻落实科学发展观的重要体现。为此,文章在分析我国经济结构失衡原因的基础上,提出通过进行出口战略性调整,＂消解并转移＂过度的外汇储备,把经济发展模式转变与政府促进公共消费联系在一起,以此作为有效扩大内需的一种调控手段。     

The common trend and common cycle of exports and the real exchange rate: Empirical results from Swiss data

Conclusion This paper contains an empirical analysis of the relationship of Swiss goods exports, the real exchange rate and world trade, using the common-trend-common-cycle methodology. This exercise shows that the trend and cyclical dependence of these variables are strongly different: exports and the real exchange rate exhibit a positive long-run or trend dependence of world trade whereas the short-run or cyclical relationship of exports to the real exchange rate is strongly negative with approximately a unit elasticity. These results, which differ strongly from standard dynamic regression or error correction estimates, can be interpreted as follows. In the short run we observe the strong negative cyclical relationship between exports and the real exchange rate, which we expect from short-run macroeconomic models with sticky prices. If we make the reasonable assumption that short-run real exchange rate movements are exogenous to exports and, for instance, caused by monetary policy then we come to the conclusion that cyclical real exchange rate variations lead to strong export cycles. However, in the long run, there is a completely different positive comovement of these two variables, which are both driven by the world trade trend. This common trend of exports and the real exchange rate can be understood as an equilibrium reaction of both variables, price and quantity of the exported goods, to exogenous changes in world trade given a production technology available for the country.     

Exchange Rates and Prices under Processing Trade: A Macroeconomic Analysis

In an economy dominated by labor-intensive processing trade, such as China, real exchange rate appreciation can possibly increase rather than decrease net exports. As the import content of processed exports (a proxy for dependence on processing trade) increases in its continuum, the stable equilibrium for the exchange rate and price level eventually yields to a saddle-point equilibrium. Unless the initial inflation (or deflation) rate is uniquely moderate at a given exchange rate, either the depreciation-inflation spiral or the appreciation-deflation spiral can dominate. Monetary and fiscal policies can help a processing-trade dependent country in structural transition from excessive engagement in processing trade (the saddle-point equilibrium) to a more sustainable and balanced trade structure.     

Trade policy in Mexico

This paper provides an evaluation of the trade policies applied in Mexico in the last quarter century (1956–1982). It examines the policies in three well-defined periods: (1) 1956–1971, considered to be a period of relative stability following the rapid inflation and devaluations of the first post-war decade, though characterized by increasing overvaluation of the peso; (2) March 1972–December 1976, beginning with the acceleration of government spending under President Echeverria and ending with the devaluations of the peso; (3) December 1976–December 1982, covering the Presidency of José López Portillo. For each period, the author discusses macroeconomic policy, trade policy developments and changes in Mexican exports and imports and their contribution to industrial growth. Having demonstrated the interdependence of macroeconomic and trade policies, the paper concludes with recommendations for policy reform, e.g. for remedying macroeconomic disequilibria, reducing price distortions and reforming trade policy, with a view to moving towards an outward-oriented development strategy in Mexico.     

Optimal Exchange Intervention in an Inflation Targeting Regime: Some Cautionary Tales

Devaluations and fiscal retrenchments coming from developed countries are buffeting less developed countries. Many emerging market countries have adopted inflation targeting as “best practice,” but now they are being advised to enhance their inflation targeting regimes with foreign exchange intervention. Here we use a DSGE model to tell some cautionary tales about this advice. A Taylor rule guides interest rate setting, while foreign exchange interventions are used as a second tool of monetary policy. These interventions are effective in our model since domestic and key currency bonds are imperfect substitutes. We derive optimal (Ramsey) intervention policies in response to foreign devaluations and fiscal retrenchments, and find that they are rather complex. So, we compare the optimal responses to policies that simply smooth real or nominal exchange rate movements. Our results suggest that discretion may be the better part of valor: pure inflation targeting may come closer to the optimal policy than exchange rate smoothing. A secondary result may also be of some interest: foreign exchange interventions have a stronger impact on inflation and output in an inflation targeting regime than do sterilized interventions; the Taylor rule augments the effects of a given intervention.     

DETERMINANTS OF DEMAND FOR FIJI'S EXPORTS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

Fiji is no exceptin to the rule that exports are an important source of growth and development. In this light, it is important to know the determinants of exports. However, there is no empirical study on Fiji's export demand. This paper uses the modern econometric techniques—in particular, the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration—to investigate whether the standard export demand variables, viz., trading partner income, export price, and competitor price, have a long‐run cointegration relationship with Fiji's real exports for the period 1970 to 1999. In addition, the long‐run results are also estimated by using the dynamic ordinary least squares and the fully modified ordinary least squares. The empirical results indicate the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables. The long‐run foreign income, own‐price, and cross‐price elasticities are found to be 0.7 to 0.8, −1.3 to −1.5, and 2.1 to 2.2, respectively.