Determinants of technical efficiency and farmers’ crop choice rationality: A case study of rural Gansu,China

Land exchange based on market transactions in which lessors and lessees participate voluntarily not only makes them better off but also enhances the overall efficiency of land use and agricultural production. However, it is worthwhile to empirically explore the effect of land rental on overall technical efficiency in the context of Chinese agriculture because non-farm household producers have increasingly entered the farming business as cultivators. If such producers underperform farm households in terms of efficiency, land consolidation does not necessarily deliver the desired outcome. This study demonstrates that the development of land rental markets improves agricultural technical efficiency at the aggregate level. Another important issue addressed in this study is to examine farmers’ crop choice rationality. China offers an interesting case in this respect. This is because, while the central government has long strived to maintain a high grain self-sufficiency rate, the relative prices of farm products have recently moved in favor of non-grain products. Our empirical result suggests that there is room for further increase in farm revenues of Gansu’s producers by shifting resources away from cereal toward horticultural production.     

改进和完善中央农险补贴政策的几点建议

2007年4月,中央财政决定拿出10亿元资金在部分省份进行农业保险的保费补贴试点工作,并在今后试点的基础上,逐步向全国推广,使保费补贴政策逐步常态化、正规化,并纳入中央预算。政府对农业保险进行保费补贴,有助于推动农险事业健康快速发展,提高农业保险的保障水平,有助于保障农民收入和农业的持续有效供给。但是,从新疆农业和农业保险发展的实际看,中央农险补贴政策还存在一些不足,离实际需求尚有较大的距离。本文对此进行分析,并提出了改进和完善中央农险补贴政策的建议与设想。     

The role of profit in the soviet economy

Summary The role of profit is firstly a source of financing investment and government consumption and secondly a means of stimulating the producers to act in accordance with the directives of the central plan. As an incentive it cannot be analyzed without considering the other parts of the stimulation system with which it has to form a harmonious whole,i.e. the price system and the calculation system. In successive periods of time the role of profit differed, dependeing on whether the plan was implemented in a direct or in an indirect way. It can be shown that in no period has the stimulation system been consistent.He is indebted to Annegreet van Bergen, Michael Ellman, Pat Ellman, Roy Jonker, Mirjam Nijhof and Roald Ramer for valuable comments.     

Food policy conflicts in Bangladesh

The objective of this paper is to show that the reality of a food policy aim of self-sufficiency is very complex and full of internal inconsistencies. In particular, the author stresses the conflicts of interest between the consumers and producers of foodgrains in Bangladesh, which create obstacles to the success of their recently devised development goals. He sets the scene by providing details of foodgrain production, food availability per capita and levels of malnutrition, and then introduces the policy conflicts in increasing food production. The author then discusses several attempts to resolve the conflict through price control, consumer subsidies, and direct aid to producers through encouraging the use of fertilizers and irrigation. This leads to the conclusion that government policy and outside aid must aim at both the production and the consumption of food in order for increased food supplies to reach those who need them most.     

Examining Foreign Aid Fungibility in Small Open Economies

The paper uses a non-scale growth model to examine the behavior of a small open economy to varying degrees of foreign aid fungibility. Shifting government resources to public consumption while allocating the aid to either type of public expenditure or as a pure transfer changes the productivity of the private factors in production. Agents respond, as with any government transfer, by adjusting consumption, debt and work effort. Private capital accumulation slows and the welfare effect dominates. The fungibility results maintain for parameterizations that reflect limited substitution in production and where the public capital externality is small. The analysis, which employs extensive numerical simulations, emphasizes the tradeoffs between long-run capital accumulation and welfare that maintain even when aid is fungible. The simulations highlight the complementarity between foreign aid and public expenditure, the tradeoff between welfare and capital accumulation, and that aid cannot replace the government??s own commitment to financing public expenditure. The results suggest that a policy in which the government is required to maintain its expenditure commitment to public capital yields the highest level effects to capital accumulation, consumption and output.     

分税制改革、城市偏向与中国农业增长

分税制改革因导致中央和地方政府之间财权和事权的不匹配而增加了地方政府的财政压力,从而深刻地改变着地方政府的行为模式。当农业税费全归地方财政收入,农业对经济增长的贡献不断下降而经济增长又成为地方官员政治晋升的主要指标时,面临财政压力的理性地方政府会强化其城市偏向程度,从而损害农业增长。本文运用1978至2009年中国省级面板数据进行的实证分析表明:分税制下的地方财政压力对农业增长特别是粮食增长产生消极影响;非本级财政收入因缓解地方财政压力而有助于农业增长;地方政府对预算外资金的依赖则不利于农业增长。历史和经验证据支持了分税制改革强化地方政府城市偏向的观点。     

我国农产品出口应对技术性贸易壁垒对策分析

技术性贸易壁垒是当今发达国家设置贸易壁垒,实行贸易保护的一种常见的方法和手段,国外的技术性贸易壁垒对我国农产品的出口造成了严重的影响,本文从经济学角度和实证方面对我国农产品出口所受的影响进行了分析,从政府行为和行业生产角度提出了我国农产品出口所应对的策略。     

Blue Box Policy Reform in the Doha Round Negotiations： Effects and China＇s Position

This paper uses an agricultural trade policy simulation model to quantitatively evaluate the effects of Blue Box policy reform on agricultural production and trade, and further provides specific proposals regarding China ＇ s reform position. The results indicate that, if the reform could achieve a reduction in distorting supports in more developed countries, China＇ s total agricultural production would increase, accompanied by a decrease in agricultural imports and a slight increase in exports. In terms of social welfare, producers would gain significantly, consumers would lose and government would not suffer greatly, which is in accordance with current agricultural policies in China. As a core member of G20, China should approve a subsidy level as low as possible required by Blue Box to achieve ＂substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic supports＂.     

新疆社会主义新农村建设中的政府职能定位

新疆社会主义新农村建设取得了很大进展，但农村经济、农民生活以及农业产业竞争力与国内其他地区相比仍存在差距。要缩小差距，不仅需要中央政府的高度关注，更需要新疆各级政府充分发挥各项行政职能的作用，建立服务型、高效型和协调型政府，发挥新农村建设的主导作用，促进新农村建设取得更大进展。     

Agriculture and the migration of labour to a capital city: The case of Gaborone,Botswana

This study examines some aspects of rural urban migration in Botswana, focusing in particular on Gaborone, the capital. Models are specified that relate age grouping, sectoral income differential, government employment and time to male and female migration. Econometric models were based on published data. The study indicates that there is a positive relationship between migration and central government employment, expressed as a proportion of total formal employment. The differential between agricultural and average non‐agricultural income, especially for male migrants, is also positively related to migration. The results show that with time, male and female migration to Gaborone is likely to increase. Male migration is positively related to arable crop cultivation, whereas female migration has an adverse effect on it. Neither has any significant influence on harvested crop area in Botswana     

Grain crop capacity forecast as the basis for agricultural output prediction

Medium-term forecasting of grain crop capacity is considered, which is one of the central problems in the procedures of working out federal-and regional-level agricultural and food policy, and in the development programs of agricultural enterprises. On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the grain crop capacity indicator the authors suggest a special algorithm for a medium-term forecasting. Possible applications for this algorithm are shown with reference to specific commodity producers. Methodological recommendations are given for forecasting regional-level agricultural production.     

民生视角下的积极财政政策

在全球金融海啸冲击下,中国政府反应迅速,出台一系列刺激经济增长的财政政策。本轮积极财政政策的最大亮点就是倾力改善民生,并将改善民生作为促消费、保增长的重要方面。2008年11月以来,中央出台了一系列有关三农、就业、教育、医疗、社会保障、住房保障的民生政策,力度之大,前所未有。但是,改善民生的政策能否得到有效落实,改善民生的长效机制能否建立,值得思考。     

Agricultural pricing policy in Kenya

This paper examines Kenya's agricultural pricing policy, its role in the development of key sectors of the agricultural economy during the 1970s and its impact on different classes of producers. Toward this end, the paper describes the process of agricultural price determination in Kenya, and examines trends in real producer price indices for selected crop groupings and by size of holding.The most important finding of the paper is that agricultural pricing policy has been used in Kenya to create incentives for the growth of marketed agricultural production. In addition, the paper shows that the Government of Kenya has also used pricing and marketing policy instruments to achieve its goal of promoting the agricultural development of smallholders, who constitute the dominant mode of agricultural production in Kenya. Significantly, these findings are contrary to the widely accepted notion that pricing policy in developing countries has uniformly been biased in favor of the urban sector and against agricultural producers.     

The shape of demand for high-level agricultural skills in the South African labour market

A supply of high-level agricultural skills is foundational to the South African agricultural sector's capacity to improve the quality and range of agricultural products and services so as to support small agricultural producers, meet domestic needs for food security and increase the competitiveness of local products on global agricultural markets. Concerns about the coexistence of graduate unemployment and skills shortages in the agricultural sector prompt the question: What is the shape of demand for high-level agricultural skills in the South African labour market? To answer this, the authors conducted 83 interviews with respondents in private, public and non-governmental organisations involved in agriculture. The findings reveal a rising demand for high-level agricultural skills among farmers, farm managers and foremen; in research and product development; in the sales and marketing functions of firms supplying primary agriculture; in government entities across a wide range of occupations; and in public and private sector R&D.     

中部地区农村劳动力转移的若干问题研究

中部地区是我国主要的农业生产基地，在中央提出的“中部崛起”战略的情况下，该地区面临着一个很好的发展机遇，然而农村劳动力数量大，“三农”问题突出却严重制约着发展。本文从农村劳动力转移的角度出发，针对中部六省的农村劳动力转移现状，提出了转移过程中政府的作用、对当地的影响、如何转移、如何培训等四个重要问题．并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Federal agricultural policies: Do black farm operators benefit?

Findings of this study support the contention that benefits from federal agricultural programs accrue primarily to a few very large producers while small producers receive only minimal amounts, and black producers, even less. Not only does this study confirm the belief that, as a whole, black farmers receive only a very thin slice of the “benefit pie” but it makes clear the fact that their individual share is much smaller than their white counterparts’. Although low product volume is an obvious and often cited factor contributing to this inequity, these findings indicate that another very important factor is low program participation. Underparticipation by black farm operators is primarily attributed to racial discrimination against blacks, the negative attitude of many black farm operators toward government programs, failure of some to access available information, and poor decision-making skills of others.     

20世纪50年代的职工储蓄动员与现代国家建设

伴随着现代国家建设,政府对民众日常生活的介入与塑造愈益加深。1949年以后,为了早日向工业国转变,国家选择了高投入、高积累的工业化发展战略,并通过计划经济体制调整国民收入中积累和消费部分的比重,个体消费者的经济活动也因此被纳入国家计划的范畴。储蓄作为一种延期消费,具有调节货币流通、推迟社会购买力、增加生产建设资金的作用。为此,国家加大了对城市居民特别是职工储蓄的推广力度。对银行储蓄的大力提倡和动员,成为国家调整积累与消费关系的重要手段,同时它也在无形中改造了民众传统的经济生活方式和消费习惯。根植于传统“熟人社会”的民间借贷具有强大的生命力,成为现代国家推广银行储蓄的一大阻力。在这种情况下,互助储金会等新型的互助.互济组织应运而生,承担着将职工从民间信贷导向银行储蓄的历史功能。     

基于粮食安全视角的粮食供应链优化与管理研究

粮食供应链包含粮食生产、流通与消费三个环节,粮食供应链构建与优化对保障和实现我国粮食安全具有重要意义。在粮食生产环节,农业散户订单的风险管理是粮食供应链优化的首要任务。从供应链的纵向运转角度分析,维持粮食供应链正常运转的契约关系有要素契约和商品契约。当双方的资产专用性都较强时,契约的稳定性较高,供应链也越稳定。通过粮食供应链管理方法,由粮食加工企业整合生产者、中间商、仓储企业等,形成利益分享的粮食供应链可以有效组织粮食流通网络,促进粮食生产、加工、销售环节之间的信息交流,有利于顺利实现粮食生产的价值。     

Consumption,financial wealth and labor income in Korea

By examining the relationship between consumption, financial wealth and labor income in Korea, this paper presents three key findings. First, we find evidence that Korean households hold a larger proportion of their wealth in human capital instead of financial wealth, compared to households in other countries. Potentially, this finding appears consistent with Koreans’ enthusiasm for human development through education despite low government funding. Another important finding is that only financial wealth fluctuations contain a large portion of temporary components. Hence, financial wealth is mainly responsible for adjustments to restore the long-run relationship between consumption, financial wealth and labor income during the examined period. Third, and perhaps most interestingly, this paper finds that before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, households in Korea had difficulty smoothing their consumption over time. This finding may be at least partly attributable to households’ limited access to bank loans and their low level of financial wealth accumulation prior to the crisis. In contrast, we find little evidence that households’ consumption behavior has changed during the recent global financial crisis.     

改革开放30年财政支出与中国经济增长——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

文章利用改革开放30年的省级面板数据对财政支出与中国经济增长进行了实证性的检验,结果表明,财政支出和居民消费能促进我国经济增长,但存在明显的区域差异。全国、东部和中部的财政支出对居民消费有“挤入效应”,而在西部是“挤出效应”。经济增长变动是财政支出变动的格兰杰原因,“瓦格纳法则”在全国、东部和中部地区都是成立的。