Ex post tests for short-and long-run optimization

The purpose of this paper is to develop tests of long-run equilibrium models where the long-run is defined as the state where the observed levels of output and capital are consistent with optimizing behavior. We use the implied relationship between a restricted translog cost function and derived demand equations to provide a series of nested tests which can be interpreted as ex post tests for short- and long-run optimization behavior. A set of parameter restrictions on the translog system are specified for testing whether observable levels of capital and/or output of a firm correspond to the long-run optimal level. Our tests of the validity of long-run equilibrium specifications are based on data for 28 German industries for the period 1960-1981. For most of the industries the set of restrictions implied by long-run equilibrium had to be rejected.     

User costs and bubbles in land markets

In asset markets with speculative behavior, the long-run equilibrium relationship between asset prices and the discounted flow of future rents may become invalid. We distinguish short-term user costs and longer-term user costs with variables that reflect fundamentals. We show how to work around the empirical problem of measuring speculative expectations about asset price changes and derive a simple user cost formula where the asset price change in the short-term relationship comes out as the long-run change in the overall price level.     

An examination of the equilibrium specification and structure of production for Canadian telecommunications

Multiple-output models of Canadian telecommunications production are estimated under different production equilibria. A specification test is conducted between the short- and long-run equilibrium models and the long-run equilibrium is rejected. In order to capture the nature of the disequilibrium, a dynamic cost of adjustment model is estimated for Bell Canada. There are significant adjustment costs and it is estimated that for $1.00 of marginal capital costs the carrier must incur an additional cost of $0.30 to install the new capital into the production process.     

A keynesian macro-econometric model of the UK: 1955–1984

In this paper we present a small Keynesian macro-economic model in which wage-price determination is linked to the working of goods and money markets. By explicitly treating the Keynes effect we derive a general expression for the employment-money supply elasticity, and draw the IS-LM loci in the employment-interest rate space Our empirical specification allows for short-run disequilibrium dynamic adjustments around the static long-run relations predicted by the theoretical model. By careful use of our specification search strategy we obtain a statistically sound econometric model, which exhibits sensible long-run properties. A remarkable finding implied by our estimates is that equilibrium unemployment is negatively affected by both money supply and incomes policy.     

Models of Competitive Price Promotions: Some Empirical Evidence from the Coffee and Saltine Crackers Markets

I present tests of a competitive rationale for price promotions. In a model with a population of informed and uninformed customers, price competition yields a static equilibrium in which each seller draws a price from a specified density function. Price data on coffee and saltine crackers products are used to test whether the sample of prices on each product could have possibly come from the theoretically specified density function. The results suggest that some markets are indeed consistent with the marginal distributions of prices predicted by the model. Furthermore, in the process of testing this rationale for price promotions, estimates are obtained for the marginal cost of each product, the number of competing goods, and the percentage of informed consumers. The resulting excess variability of these estimates across competing brands can also raise questions with respect to the empirical validity of the model.     

Short and long-run cost efficiency in Indian public bus companies using Data Envelopment Analysis

State Transport Undertakings (STUs) are key players in providing mass road transport in India. Given that they operate under high levels of government imposed regulatory constraints, it is imperative to study their efficiency levels. Given that capital is a relatively scarce resource in developing countries like India, it is important to obtain efficiency in the short-run where some inputs are fixed as well as over the long run, where all inputs are variable. The technique used for capturing efficiency is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). A key possible limitation of DEA models based on physical inputs and outputs is that for an inefficient firm, reduction in some or all inputs may be recommended. It may often be desirable for an inefficient firm to increase some less expensive inputs while reducing the use of relatively expensive ones. Hence, when market price data is available, it is advisable to use the cost variant of DEA. Also, it is possible to determine variable cost efficiency in the short run when some inputs cannot be varied. Such inputs are referred to as “quasi-fixed” inputs. In this paper, we examine short and long term efficiencies of select bus companies in India known as State Transport Undertakings (STUs) over a period of 10 years. Fleet strength has been used as the quasi-fixed input. It is possible to ascertain, through a comparison of shadow price of the quasi-fixed input, vis-à-vis its market price, as to whether the quantity of this input is sub-optimally small or large. It is found that by adopting efficiency enhancing practices, STUs can cumulatively reduce their operating costs to the extent of 9123.35 million dollars. Also the tendency to minimize costs is found to be declining over time. In the short run some STUs are found to operate with a sub optimally low fleet size.     

THE INTERTEMPORAL DIMENSION OF NEOCLASSICAL PRODUCTION THEORY

Abstract. The aim of this survey paper is to provide a guide to the literature on optimal dynamic factor demands to the non-specialist reader interested in applied work. We start with the distinction between variable and quasi-fixed factors of production and use these to characterize the firm's temporary equilibrium. We then review the optimal intertemporal behaviour of the firm, using the notion of adjustment costs as a means to solve the firm's optimization problem. This process gives rise to a system of interrelated dynamic factor demands in a flexible accelerator format. Theoretical difficulties and empirical limitations of this model are discussed. This fact leads us to review the theory of intertemporal duality. We next analyze the issue of expectations in this class of dynamic models. A section reviewing the empirical work on dynamic factor demands follows, after which we offer some concluding remarks.     

Infrastructure-production system dynamics in national and regional systems: An econometric study of the Indian economy

Treating infrastructure inputs as quasi-fixed in the short run, a multi-equation econometric model of production-infrastructure (social overhead capital) interlinkages and adjustments is developed based on a flexible functional form. Adjustment dynamics are endogenized and costs of adjustments are explicitly incorporated. The model is estimated with regional and national data from India; results include optimal paths and speeds of adjustments for infrastructure inputs market inputs' own and cross-price elasticities and demand elasticities with respect to the level of output, infrastructure stocks and associated user costs; and production cost elasticities with respect to output and infrastructure stocks.     

ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION

Abstract In this paper, we review the existing empirical literature on price asymmetries in commodities, providing a way to classify and compare different studies that are highly heterogeneous in terms of econometric models, type of asymmetries and empirical findings. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First, it presents a detailed and updated survey of the existing empirical contributions on price asymmetries in the transmission mechanism linking input prices to output prices. Second, this paper presents an extension of the traditional distinction between long‐run and short‐run asymmetries to new categories of asymmetries, such as: contemporaneous impact, distributed lag effect, cumulated impact, reaction time, equilibrium and momentum equilibrium adjustment path, regime effect, regime equilibrium adjustment path. Each empirical study is then critically discussed in the light of this new classification of asymmetries. Third, this paper evaluates the relative merits of the most popular econometric models for price asymmetries, namely autoregressive distributed lags, partial adjustments, error correction models, regime switching and vector autoregressive models. Finally, we use the meta‐regression analysis to investigate whether the results of asymmetry tests are not model‐invariant and find which additional factors systematically influence the rejection of the null hypothesis of symmetric price adjustment. The main results of our survey can be summarized as follows: (i) each econometric model is specialized to capture a subset of asymmetries; (ii) each asymmetry is better investigated by a subset of econometric models; (iii) the general significance of the F test for asymmetric price transmission depends mainly on characteristics of the data, dynamic specification of the econometric model, and market characteristics. Overall, our empirical findings confirm that asymmetry, in all its forms, is very likely to occur in a wide range of markets and econometric models.     

The effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long-run capital stock

This paper examines the effects of output price uncertainty on the optimal investment behavior of a risk-neutral competitive firm with a constant returns to scale production function. In the presence of convex costs of adjustment, investment is an increasing function of q, the shadow price of capital. Given the current price of output, we find that increased uncertainty will raise the current rate of investment. Increased uncertainty will also increase the expected long-run capital stock if the price of output is serially uncorrelated. However, if the price of output is serially correlated, then the direction of the effect of increased uncertainty on the expected long-run capital stock depends on the curvature of the marginal adjustment cost function. In this case, we obtain results which are directly opposite of the results in the literature and we locate the flaw in the existing analysis.     

NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ENTRY COST IN FIRST‐PRICE PROCUREMENT AUCTIONS

In this paper, I investigate Samuelson's low‐price auction model with entry costs. The model's equilibrium implies that the distribution of bids is truncated at the threshold for participation. I use the model to estimate the cost of participation in Michigan highway procurement auctions. The null hypothesis of zero entry costs is rejected. Using my empirical results, I then construct an estimate of the optimal auction, which employs regular policy tools such as entry fees. Finally, I demonstrate the savings that the Michigan government could have made on payments if optimal auctions had been employed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The economics of property taxes and land values: The elasticity of supply of structures

Land values are explained by diminishing returns to a variable factor, structure, added to fixed land. The total cost minimizing structural density determined by land value, occurs where the marginal cost of increased density equals the average cost of structure plus land. Structural demand prices equal marginal costs in equilibrium determining land demands. A general equilibrium land price establishes the uses, prices and densities of structures. A simple method of calculating structure supply elasticity and the incidence and deadweight loss of property taxes is developed. Differing property tax rates are found to be efficient.     

Inflation, output, and stock prices: Evidence from two major emerging markets

Research in economics and finance documents a puzzling negative relationship between stock returns and inflation rates in markets of industrialized economies. The present study investigates this relationship for Korea and Mexico. We show that the negative relationship between the real stock returns and unexpected inflation persists after purging inflation of the effects of the real economic activity. Johansen and Juselius cointegration tests verify that the long-run equilibrium between stock prices and general price levels is weak. However, in both economies, stock prices and general price levels seem to show a strong long-run equilibrium with the real economic activity. This paper benefited from the constructive suggestions of an anonymous referee. The remaining errors are the authors’ responsibility. Financial support from the Dr. Robert B. Pamplin, Jr., School of Business Administration, University of Portland, is greatly appreciated.     

A time series analysis of real wages,consumption and asset returns

This paper re-examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption, real wages, and asset returns can be explained by a neoclassical model. Previous empirical rejections of the model have suggested that the optimal labour contract model might be appropriate for understanding the time series properties of the real wage rate and consumption. We show that an optimal contract model restricts the long-run relation of the real wage rate and consumption. We exploit this long-run restriction (cointegration restriction) for estimating and testing the model, using Ogaki and Park's (1989) cointegration approach. This long-run restriction involves a parameter that we call the long-run intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for non-durable consumption but does not involve the IES for leisure. This allows us to estimate the long-run IES for non-durable consumption from a cointegrating regression. Tests for the null of cointegration do not reject our model. As a further analysis, our estimates of the long-run IES for non-durable consumption are used to estimate the discount factor and a coefficient of time-nonseparability using Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments. We form a specification test for our model à la Hausman (1978) from these two steps. This specification test does not reject our model. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model

The empirical relevance of models of competitive storage arbitrage in explaining commodity price behavior has been seriously challenged in a series of pathbreaking papers by [Deaton and Laroque, 1992], [Deaton and Laroque, 1995] and [Deaton and Laroque, 1996]. Here we address their major criticism, that the model is in general unable to explain the degree of serial correlation observed in the prices of twelve major commodities. First, we present a simple numerical version of their model which, contrary to Deaton and Laroque (1992), can generate the high levels of serial correlation observed in commodity prices, if it is parameterized to generate realistic levels of price variation. Then, after estimating the [Deaton and Laroque, 1995] and [Deaton and Laroque, 1996] model using their data set, model specification and econometric approach, we show that the use of a much finer grid to approximate the equilibrium price function yields quite different estimates for most commodities. Results are obtained for coffee, copper, jute, maize, palm oil, sugar and tin that support the specifications of the storage model with positive constant marginal storage cost and no deterioration as in Gustafson (1958a). Consumption demand has a low response to price and, except for sugar, stockouts are infrequent. The observed magnitudes of serial correlation of price match those implied by the estimated model.     

Transport improvements,commuting costs,and residential location

This paper develops a theoretical framework for evaluating one of the long-run or secondary effects of a transport improvement. The familiar model of residential location is manipulated to derive an estimating equation relating changes in travel costs to changes in the household's preferred location. When estimated for a particular transport situation the major finding is the importance of the price effect. Although direct cost savings are important, especially in the short-run, in the long-run and especially for innovations with substantially increased speed or reduced operating costs the price effect may completely dwarf the income effect.     

Nonparametric Dynamic Production Analysis and the Theory of Cost

While the dynamic theory of production provides little insight towards identifying a specific functional form for the firm's technology, dynamic production analysis has been explored traditionally in a parametric framework. A nonparametric dynamic dual cost approach to production analysis is developed in this article. Recovering technological information from intertemporal cost minimizing behavior is possible without imposing a parametric functional form on the firm's technology. Nonparametric tests to analyze the structure of a dynamic technology are presented from a dynamic cost minimizing perspective. The empirical implementation of these tests is illustrated for a balanced panel data set of Pennsylvania dairy operators during the time period 1986–1992.     

Permanent and transitory shocks in owner-occupied housing: A common trend model of price dynamics

Significant fluctuations in house prices have received considerable attention in recent years. An understanding of the forces underlying the departure from fundamental values is important in explaining the mechanisms underlying housing market performance and predicting potential house price changes in the future. This study constitutes the first use of a common trend (CT) model to analyze private house prices in the Swedish market. We employ a cointegration system to analyze the macro variables of consumption expenditure per capita, user costs and house prices. We decompose shocks into those resulting from fundamental variables, specified in this research as income and the interest rate, and those resulting from cyclical variables. The results indicate that interest rates play a dominant role in explaining house price swings, and are also significant in determining user costs for households in Sweden. Transitory shocks are found to have little explanatory power for house prices and user costs in the long run. A number of tests have been performed to verify the robustness of the specification and results.     

The economics of retail firms

This paper identifies retail firms as an economic institution which delivers explicit products or services to consumer together with a variety of distribution services that determine the levels of distribution costs experienced by consumers in their purchase activities. The demand for the retailer's product is derived from a household production model in which the levels of distribution services provided by the retailer play the role of fixed inputs in the household's production functions. The supply of the retailer's product is derived from a joint cost function which is non-decreasing in the levels of distribution services provided. Profit-maximizing behavior in monopolistically competive markets shows that retail firms have special economic incentives to become complex organizations by integrating backwards, offering multiple explicit products and operating in more than one market. In addition, monopolistically competitive retail firms in long-run equilibrium will exhibit excess capacity, price dispersion and product choice in distribution services.     

Upstream conduct and price authority with competing organizations

We characterize the degree of price authority that competing upstream principals award their downstream agents in a setting where these agents own private information about demand and incur nonverifiable distribution costs. Principals cannot internalize these costs through monetary incentives and design “permission sets” from which agents choose prices. The objective is to understand the forces shaping delegation and the constraints imposed on equilibrium prices. When principals behave noncooperatively, agents are biased toward excessively high prices because they pass on distribution costs to consumers. Hence, the permission set only features a price cap that is more likely to bind as products become closer substitutes, in sectors where distribution is sufficiently costly, and when demand is not too volatile. By contrast, when principals behave cooperatively, the optimal delegation scheme is richer and more complex. Because principals want to charge the monopoly price, the optimal permission set features a price floor when the distribution cost is sufficiently low, it features instead full discretion for moderate values of this cost, and only when it is high enough, a price cap is optimal. Surprisingly, while competition (as captured by stronger product substitutability) hinders delegation in the noncooperative regime, the opposite occurs when principals maximize industry profit.