Determinants of economic growth revisited: is competitiveness and investment the solution for Greece?

In this paper we investigate the role of debt as an additional determinant of growth complementing the relevant empirical growth literature using insights gained during the recent economic crisis. Our focus is the case of Greece, the country more severely affected by the crisis, thus having to resort to tripartite external assistance. More specifically, we are exploring whether the pillars of the Troika Adjustment Programme for Greece could actually be the key to overcome the current deadlock the Greek economy, as the required fiscal consolidation resulted in deep and prolonged recession which in turn jeopardizes the sustainability of the improvement in general government accounts. The Troika Programme for Greece featured specific structural reforms as a prerequisite to improve the business environment and enhance the outward orientation of the Greek economy, thus identifying investment (domestic and foreign) and international competiveness as the new growth drivers of the Greek economy. Using panel data for EU countries we are investigating the validity of the proposed economic policy mix, placing special emphasis on the role that indebtedness (both private and public) has played in the past and could also play in the future (as public debt is ruled out for financing investment but credit expansion to the private sector through increased liquidity is a sine qua non condition for the recovery of investment). The innovation of this study is that it takes stock of both structural reforms (through PMI) and indebtedness and estimates their relevant impact on growth.     

Some aspects of the impact of inflation on the debt burden of developing countries

The effect of inflation on the external indebtedness of developing countries is examined in this UNCTAD paper in a more comprehensive framework than is usually the case. The conventional view on this has been that international inflation reduces the ‘real’ burden of external debt. However, viewed in the context of the net effect of inflation on the import capacity of debtor developing countries, the paper shows that the situation is by no means so simple. It demonstrates by examining the cases of a sample of 71 developing countries that the effect of price increases of developing countries' imports (relative to price increases for their exports) caused by international inflation can and often has more than offset the so-called favourable effect on the burden of debt. For example in 1975, a year with particularly high inflation, no less than 75% in the sample experienced negative consequences. In these cases, therefore, international inflation on balance has reduced import capacity and thus made it more not less difficult for them to maintain servicing on their external debt and so increased the ‘real’ burden of their debt. Thus the UNCTAD paper brings into serious question the conventional wisdom on this important issue.     

Is Africa different?

Africa's macroeconomic response to external shocks was significantly differrent from that of other developing countries during 1976–1986. Nonparametric tests that correct for differing initial conditions indicate significantly lower economic growth in African economies. Average inflation was also significantly lower, while current-account deficits were larger. Economic policies in African countries are characterized by significantly larger budget deficits and government current expenditure as a share of gross domestic product and by greater inward orientation. African economies in the CFA Franc Zones are distinguished by relatively lower inflation, budget deficits, and less reduction in investment/GNP ratios.     

'Don't owe,won't pay!': A critical analysis of the Jubilee SA position on South African government debt

Jubilee 2000 (SA) supports the cancellation of South African national government (and other) debt on the grounds that it is odious debt from the apartheid years. The organisation has called for foreign creditors to cancel the debt voluntarily and has threatened to call for debt repudiation if such cancellation is not forthcoming. However, unlike voluntary debt cancellation, debt repudiation would probably have serious consequences for investment and growth. Furthermore, as most government debt has accumulated after the end of apartheid, and as most is domestic and marketable, the moral argument for repudiation is problematic. Jubilee 2000 (SA) is also calling for the government pension scheme (which owns a large proportion of the domestic government debt) to be restructured. Contributions to the pension fund may be excessive (as argued by Jubilee 2000), but the case is not clear. South Africa should publish a dual set of accounts in line with how other countries report their liabilities so as not to overstate the deficit in the eyes of investors.     

Promoting of Investment in Africa*

Abstract: This paper examines the trend, constraints, promotion, and prospects of investment – domestic investment, foreign direct investment, and private portfolio investment – in Africa. After identifying the importance of investment in Africa's economic development, it was shown that all forms of investment are low in Africa and hence inadequate for the attainment of the MDGs and poverty reduction in the continent. The constraining factors include: low resources mobilization; high degree of uncertainty; poor governance, corruption, and low human capital development; unfavorable regulatory environment and poor infrastructure, small individual country sizes; high dependence on primary commodities exports and increased competition; poor image abroad; shortage of foreign exchange and the burden of huge domestic and external debt; and undeveloped capital markets, their high volatility, and home bias by foreign investors. The paper recommends that successful promotion of both domestic, foreign direct and portfolio investment in Africa will require actions and measures at the national, regional, and international levels. It concludes that the prospects are bright. New and attractive investment opportunities are emerging in infrastructure, particularly as most African countries now encourage public/private partnerships for investments in this sector. In addition to privatization, renewed interest within Africa in undertaking regionally based projects and joint exploitation of natural resources is creating other investment opportunities. Apart from the fact that investment in Africa yields the highest returns, investment risk in the continent is declining. In addition, much progress has been made in recent years to improve the investment climate in Africa. All this is of course is not to deny that obstacles do remain hence economic reforms to enhance domestic investment would need to be complemented by measures to attract increased foreign capital. Critical in such endeavors must be efforts to improve governance in some countries as well as to eliminate socio‐political violence in others and development of domestic capital markets, while government institutions must be modernized and upgraded.     

The causes and consequences of world recession

Diverging trends in productivity since the late 1960s, if not before, between the United States and its competitor countries, lie at the heart of the global slump. Over the 1970s, these trends began to be reflected in large deficits in commodity trade - but the tendency was to resolve them by means other than increased investment: at first devaluation, later restrictive monetary policies and rising unemployment. None of these policies helped significantly to achieve the needed structural adjustments but they did serve to aggravate the position and prospects of the poorer developing countries. By the 1980s, this became a crisis situation of serious proportions. Often drought and war or civil strife have reinforced economic difficulties, compounded further in many countries by rising debt service obligations and declining real commodity prices.This combination of external and internal difficulties certainly contributed in the poorer countries to the slowdown, since the 1960s, in reducing infant mortality and in tackling basic child survival and development issues. The impressive progress in reducing IMR by an average of 2% or more a year by a number of developing countries, however, shows what can be done. Although rising expenditure is by no means a sufficient condition for child progress, declining expenditures and severe balance-of-payments problems greatly constrain programmes for expanding child services.     

Notes on the ‘LDC debt problem’

This paper reviews trends in trade, payments and debt of the non-oil developing countries in the 1974–1977 period. The aggregate figures indicate that, after massive increases in borrowing in 1974 and 1975, the current account balance-of-payments deficits had by 1977 been reduced to levels which should be manageable over the longer run. The experiences of the 18 most important non-oil LDC debtors are briefly reviewed. They are found to be highly varied, but the presence or absence of debt management problems depends more upon country economic management than upon external trends.     

Domestic interest rate,foreign direct investment,and corruption

It has been argued that foreign direct investment can exert upward or downward pressure on the domestic interest rate depending on foreign investors’ relative weights on internal and external finance with respect to the domestic economy. Additionally, a country’s level of corruption can influence firms’ ability to obtain external finance. We find that across countries a 1 percent increase in FDI inflows (outflows) is more likely to reduce the domestic interest rate by as much as 0.7 (1) percent. This empirical association between domestic interest rates and FDI flows is non-monotonically contingent on a country’s level of corruption.

     

Aid Effectiveness,Debt Relief and Public Finance Response: Evidence from a Panel of HIPC Countries

Substantial amounts of debt relief have been granted to a set of low-income countries, as an alternative aid modality. Although the theoretical case for debt relief is firmly established, only empirical analysis can show whether debt relief is indeed a (more) effective mode of aid delivery. We investigate the linkages between debt relief and other fiscal variables such as current expenditure, government investment, taxation and domestic borrowing, in comparison to the effects of grants and concessional loans. We find that the fiscal impact of HIPC debt relief follows fairly complex dynamics. For example, debt relief initially reduces government investment, but the effect becomes positive after two years, well outperforming other modes of aid delivery. JEL no. F34, F35, O11, O19     

Debt Sustainability and the Ongoing Financial Crisis: The Case of IDA‐only African Countries*

Abstract: The ongoing financial crisis has raised concerns in many circles about a potential future wave of sovereign defaults spreading among developing countries and, therefore, the need for additional rounds of debt relief in poor indebted countries. This paper addresses this issue for a group of 31 International Development Association (IDA)‐only African countries, which are in a fragile debt situation. Using the most recent debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) undertaken for these countries by the World Bank and the IMF, this paper studies the potential adverse effect of the ongoing financial crisis on the countries’ debt burden indicators, as a function of the depth and length of the crisis. The latter is measured by the fall and the duration of such fall in exports revenues, and by the terms at which each country can obtain financing to muddle through the crisis period. The analysis underscores the importance of concessional financing for these countries, especially if the crisis proves to be a protracted one. This, because the likelihood of countries being able to muddle through the crisis without defaulting on their external debt decreases with the hardening of the financial conditions faced by them — alternatively, the size of the downsizing in domestic (fiscal) expenditures needed to ensure the service of their foreign debts increases with the tightening of financial conditions.     

Endogenous Growth and External Balance in a Small Open Economy

This paper puts forward an intertemporal model of a small open economy which allows for the simultaneous analysis of the determination of endogenous growth and external balance. The model assumes infinitely lived, overlapping generations that maximize lifetime utility, and competitive firms that maximize their net present value in the presence of adjustment costs for investment. Domestic securities are assumed perfect substitutes for foreign securities and the economy is assumed small in the sense of being a price taker in international goods and assets markets. It is shown that the endogenous growth rate is determined solely as a function of the determinants of domestic investment, such as the world real interest rate, the technology of domestic production and adjustment costs for investment and is independent of the preferences of domestic households and budgetary policies. The preferences of consumers and budgetary policies determine the savings rate. The current account and external balance are functions of the difference between the savings and the investment rates. The world real interest rate affects growth negatively but has a positive impact on external balance. The productivity of domestic capital affects growth positively but causes a deterioration in external balance. Population growth, government consumption and government debt affect the current account and external balance negatively, but do not affect the endogenous growth rate.     

Debt and development: The role of foreign capital in economic growth

Capital flows, whether between individuals or nations, are dominated by a two- fold paradox. Borrowers are initially primarily interested in obtaining sufficient funds for their needs, but once they have obtained a loan, their indebtedness becomes their principal concern. While a loan is being negotiated the lenders usually have the upper hand, but once it is made, they become dependent on the borrowers for repayment with interest. Their power to withhold future loans becomes their only real measure of control. Borrowing and lending has costs and benefits, and these balance out only in exceptional cases for both the borrowing and lending countries and the principal social groups within them. The debate about the impact of international capital flows accordingly has a long history. This paper begins with a historical perspective, and then reviews the principal characteristics of capital flows to developing countries since the 1950s. A discussion of the impact of capital flows on development, with a particular emphasis on trends in developing country indebtedness, follows. A brief examination of borrowing and debt management issues for borrowers, lenders and the international community concludes the paper.     

Adjustment policies in developing countries: A reassessment

This paper analyses policy responses to external shocks by developing countries in the 1974–1976 and 1979–1981 periods. It is shown that outward-oriented economies relied largely on output-increasing policies of export promotion and import substitution to offset the balance-of-payments effects of external shocks in both periods and accepted a temporary decline in the rate of economic growth in order to limit their external indebtedness. In turn, inward-oriented economies failed to apply output-increasing policies of adjustment. They financed the balance-of-payments effects of external shocks by foreign borrowing in the 1974–1976 period, and had to take deflationary measures in 1979–1981 as their increased indebtedness limited the possibilities for further borrowing. The policies applied led to substantially higher rates of economic growth in outward-oriented than in inward-oriented economies, with the differences in growth rates offsetting the differences in the size of external shocks several times.     

Testing for horizontal and vertical foreign investment spillovers in China, 1998–2007

As with many developing countries, the Chinese government hopes that knowledge brought by multinationals will spill over to domestic industries and increase their productivity. In this paper, we show that foreign investment originating outside of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan has positive effects on individual firm level productivity, while foreign investment from HKMT firms does not. We also test for both horizontal (within the same industry) and vertical (upstream or downstream) linkages from foreign investment. Using a manufacturing firm-level panel for 1998 through 2007, we find zero or weak positive horizontal externalities. However, our results show that foreign direct investment (FDI) has generated positive productivity spillovers to domestic firms via backward linkages (the contacts between foreign affiliates and their local suppliers in downstream sectors) as well as forward linkages (between foreign suppliers and their local buyers in the upstream sectors).     

Drivers of India’s current account deficits,with implications for ameliorating them

Since the reforms of early 1990s, India has run persistent current account deficits that reached as high as 4.8% of GDP in 2012-13. This paper examines the domestic macroeconomic and external factors that have driven India’s current account behavior during the 1997–2012 period. Using quarterly data, we apply autoregressive distributed lag and error correction techniques to estimate a model based on the intertemporal approach to the current account. We find evidence in support of the twin deficits hypothesis suggesting that reduction in the fiscal deficit could help to ameliorate the deficit in the current account. Further, we find that contrary to the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis, domestic saving does respond to increases in domestic investment, and we support efforts to encourage saving in order to simultaneously sustain strong investment and ease the deficit in the current account.     

Private capital flows,stock market and economic growth in developed and developing countries: A comparative analysis

Empirically we investigate how three types of private capital flows could promote economic growth in recipient developed and developing countries. Our focus is on the role of stock markets as a channel through which foreign capital flows could promote growth. The findings reveal that FDI exhibits a positive impact on growth, while both foreign debt and portfolio investment have a negative impact on growth in all sample countries. However, our results indicate that stock markets might be a significant channel or leading institutional factor through which capital flows affect economic growth. The findings provide clear implications that the negative impact of private capital flows can be transformed into a positive one if the stock market development has attained a certain threshold level, regardless of whether it is in developed or developing countries.     

Workers' Remittances,Capital Inflows,and Economic Growth in Developing Asia and the Pacific

This paper examines the impact of remittances on economic growth, using developing countries in Asia and the Pacific as a case study. Using data for the period 1993–2013, our results show that remittances only generate negative and significant impacts on economic growth if they reach 10 percent of GDP or higher. A remittances‐to‐GDP ratio of below 10 percent could still impact growth negatively, but the effect is statistically insignificant. The present study finds some degree of substitutability between remittances and financial development. Foreign direct investment (FDI), but not other types of capital inflow, contributes significantly to economic growth. Other traditional growth engines, including education, trade openness, and domestic investment, are crucial in promoting growth in developing Asian and Pacific nations.     

Financial reforms and capital accumulation in developing economies: New data and evidence

This study uses newly constructed data on structural reforms and private and public capital stock to assess the effects of financial reforms on capital formation in developing economies. We find that while both domestic and external financial reforms are important determinants of capital formation, the former is more influential in middle-income countries (MICs) and the latter in low-income countries (LICs). For LICs, external financial reforms work mostly through attracting FDI. For MICs, within domestic financial reforms, what matters most are measures related to strengthening banking supervision and reducing credit controls. These results are driven by capital formation in the private sector. In addition, these effects are nonlinear, and it is important for a country's policy when it comes to the sequence of implementing domestic and external financial reforms. Given the importance of public investment in decarbonization, this study further discusses the potential impacts of financial reforms on climate change and carbon inequality.     

Africa's Debts and Economic Recovery

A substantial reduction of external debt burden of many African countries is needed, for four reasons. First, the present debt burden of Africa is extremely heavy. Africa's debts are equivalent to more than 100% of its GNP, compared to less than 50% in Latin America – another heavily indebted region – and even less elsewhere. The weight of Africa's burden is exacerbated by its lower per capita income than elsewhere in developing regions. Secondly, Africa is experiencing adverse effects of falling commodity prices more than any other region because of its greater dependence on primary products than other regions. Over the last forty years, export commodity prices other than oil have fallen by 50% in real terms, a staggering development with far-reaching adverse effects on many producers. Between May 1989 and January 1991, commodity prices other than oil fell 23% in SDR terms – speed of decline similar to that experienced in the great price fall 1980-82 which marked the beginning of the debt crisis of the 1980s. Cocoa and coffee, two major exports of Sub-Saharan Africa, were particularly badly hurt. Thirdly, while debt in other debt-affected areas has stabilized in recent years, that of Africa has continued to grow as interest is charged on interest and capitalized. Many African countries have been compelled to suspend their debt service payments; according to World Bank calculations, less than one half of Africa's debt service due is now being paid. Even so, debt service which is still being paid absorbs 27% of Africa's shrunken exports – a proportion which severely curtails Africa's capacity to import and to grow. Fourthly, debt settlement is needed to clear the way for resumption of Africa's economic development, now virtually stagnant for a decade in aggregate terms and falling in per capita terms. Africa has the capacity to modernize and grow, and this has been proven in one critical area and against all odds. Between 1980 and 1987, exports of manufactures from Sub-Saharan African countries rose 42% in U.S. dollar terms or 5.7% per year. In 1988, out of 33 countries for which data are available, exports of manufactures rose in 28, and the overall increase for the 33 was 15.8 %. In 1988, eleven Sub-Saharan countries exported manufactures in excess of US $100 million each, compared to seven countries in 1980; and in 1989, there was none. There also have been setbacks, for various reasons. But taking Sub-Saharan as a whole, to achieve a 60% increase in exports of manufactures to US $4 billion on a non-negligible base of US $2.5 billion in 1980, over an eight-year period marked by a commodity collapse, droughts, debt crisis, wars and policy disasters, is a remarkable achievement by any standard. In North Africa, exports of manufactures more than doubled between 1980 and 1987, and then accelerated at 18% per year in 1988-89. North African exports of manufactures are now running at US $5 billion per year. This diversification and growth of African exports must be sustained. For this purpose, African countries must have realistic exchange rates, undistorted product prices across the economy, sufficient supply of industrial inputs and hence adequate growth of agricultural and mineral output, and they must reconstruct the existing capital stock, in many places obsolete, and add new facilities. Their investment, a crucial element for further growth, has fallen sharply in the last decade of the debt crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa: the fall has been so severe that some countries have not even been able to fully replace depreciating capital. At the present level of domestic savings and international commodity prices, most of Africa cannot undertake the reconstruction, modernization and expansion out of domestic ressources to any significant extent. Foreign capital inflow is needed to initiate the recovery and to help sustain it thereafter. But such capital inflow will not take place until the present debt situation is cleared up. This is a necessary condition, even though it is not sufficient: it must be supported by domestic efforts single-mindedly dedicated to economic recovery and social justice. Past efforts at the solution of the debt problem, some of them imaginative and generous, have proven insufficient and uncoordinated. A new deal is needed, attacking the core of the Sub-Saharan problem: debts held by some multilateral financial institutions and debts held by the private sector, in addition to a further shrinking down of service on official bilateral debt or its total cancellation in an imaginative proposal. In North Africa, the acute liquidity squeeze of Algeria – debt service absorbing almost 70% of exports of goods and services per year – needs to be alleviated through debt rescheduling over the long term, thus releasing resources for needed economic recovery. Algeria's debt outstanding is relatively low; it is the service structure which needs radical change. While Africa's commodity problem is not on the agenda of the Abidjan Roundtable, one specific commodity situation can perhaps be handled: the cocoa crisis which affects severely a large part of West Africa and for which remedy seems relatively easily in hand. It is proposed that a consortium of international financial institutions be organized to finance, through loans of, say, 15 years duration, the sale of surplus cocoa stocks to Eastern Europe, thus contributing to cocoa price recovery and hopefully stabilization, and improvement of food supply in Eastern Europe. The operation would be no more risky than other balance-of-payments structural adjustment lending. Cocoa producing countries in parts of Latin America, the Caribbean and Asia would be also beneficiaries. Adjustment and development programmes should be prepared, and seen to be prepared, by national authorities of African countries rather than by foreign advisers and international organizations. Otherwise commitment will be lacking.     

Capital Flow Management Policies and Riskiness of External Liability Structures: the Role of Local Financial Markets

This paper investigates the role domestic financial systems play in the effectiveness of capital flow management policies (CFMs) on the risk of over-reliance on debt. Using data from 44 emerging market countries over the period 1995—2008, we investigate the relationship between financial development, CFMs, and the share of debt in external liabilities as the measure of financial stability risks. We find that financial sector development is an important channel for the effectiveness of CFMs, and enhances the impact of different policy measures on the reduction of external debt liabilities. Our results show that CFMs are significantly more effective in curbing debt inflows in a bank-based economy but, to a lesser extent, in a market-based economy. Our findings remain robust to alternative measures of external liability structures, CFMs and financial development, and consideration of potential endogeneity.