Japanese industrial development Lessons for South Africa?

This paper is critical of the scenario planning approach which attempts to offer a formula for development for South Africa in the 1990s based upon the success of Japan, amongst other economic ‘winners’. It is argued that the complexities and debates surrounding Japanese modernization make the application of ‘lessons’ extremely problematical. Points of controversy arising out of the two ‘miracle’ periods of Japanese economic growth, the Meiji era of the nineteenth century and post World War Two era, are examined in some detail. The Tokugawa legacy, Japanese ethics and in particular Confucianism, capital formation and investment spurts, the agricultural contribution, militarism and economic gains from warfare, the role of the state, the zalbatsu and business structures, dualism, labour supplies, export performance and finally education are all factors central to the debate on causes of economic growth in Japan. The paper concludes with some suggestive and very tentative ideas about ‘lessons’ for South Africa.     

Exposing the neoclassical fallacy: McCloskey on ideas and the great enrichment

In this paper, I discuss Deirdre McCloskey’s argument that ‘ideas, not capital or institutions,’ were the cause of the ‘great enrichment,’ the spectacular growth of the world economy since 1800. I disagree that the ideas of liberty and equality alone caused the great enrichment but agree that these ideas were central and necessary for it. Most theorists of development and economic history fail to recognise the importance of these ideas despite implicitly assuming them in what I call the ‘neoclassical fallacy.’ I also extend McCloskey’s views to include a greater understanding of liberty and equality through their implementation, which necessarily involves institutions that provide political officials with incentives to honour these ideas in practice. Ideas of liberty and equality are not self-implementing, and most attempts to implement them fail. Finally, I argue that a range of political theorists from Hobbes to Madison studied the problem of implementing liberty and equality. In the 150 years prior to 1800, they helped devise a series of institutions that sustained liberty, equality, and the rule of law. These ideas also contributed to the great enrichment.     

绵阳市县域新型工业化与新型城镇化互动发展实证评价

基于新型工业化和新型城镇化的内涵和研究区实际,构建了综合评价指标体系,运用标准化评分法对绵阳市县域"两化"互动发展进行了实证评价。结果显示:绵阳市9县域整体的"两化"发展水平较低,分异明显,涪城区"两化"呈现良好的互动发展,其他8县域总体上尚未形成良性互动;在工业化水平不高的情况下,新型城镇化水平明显落后于新型工业化水平;各县域在表征工业化和城镇化的"传统"指标上得分差距相对小,但在"新型"要素上差距大;各县域应在工业化和城镇化的"新型"上下功夫,并根据自身的特点寻求"两化"良性互动发展之路。     

The historiography of French economic growth in the nineteenth century

There has been a long-standing debate about French nineteenth-century economic growth. After 1945 the ‘retardation—stagnation’ thesis dominated. From the 1960s ‘revisionists’ painted a more optimistic view. Recently, ‘anti-revisionism’ has revived gloomy ideas. New research has been primarily responsible for changes of view. National income estimates, and later cliometric studies, bolstered the revisionist argument. Work on the ‘great depression’ stimulated anti-revisionism. Scholars have also been influenced by the economic and political state of France at the time they were writing and the debate has been somewhat politicized. The article ends by surveying the ‘moderate revisionism’ which now prevails.     

Of markets,might and mullahs: a case for equity,pluralism and tolerance in development

This paper tries to confront the ‘puzzlement’ of the development profession regarding the ‘best’ alternative strategies aimed at increasing employment, reducing poverty and promoting equity at the same time as fostering economic growth — and the ‘advocacy’ role that should or should not be played by that profession. The author argues that the issue lies in achieving a workable ‘meaning’ of development and then moving on to the moral ‘questions’ of value judgments and to the specific ‘problems’ that can be dealt with by science and social science. He suggests that a possible meaning of development is ‘to create more options for more people’ — ‘to achieve that the greatest number of people have the greatest number of options.’ He discusses the need for improving ‘life chances’ and considers the development policies which may or may not assist in this process. He tries to tie together conceptually the ideas of power and social change, consensus and conflict. Also in this context, the roles of participation, organization and mobilization are explored, especially their impact on different political systems. The analysis concludes with a plea for social, cultural and political pluralism — and thus, a commitment to tolerance. The author argues that these goals should be addressed by the development community without the hesitation sometimes attached to ‘protection of expertise’.     

Talking to the ancestors: national heritage,the Freedom Charter and nation-building in South Africa in 2005

The Freedom Charter has a significant place in South African liberation history. This paper is a re-reading of the document in 21st century conditions and locates its ideas within contexts that have not previously been brought into debate. In particular, it argues that the Freedom Charter is part of national heritage, but of a special kind relating to its being part of a ‘democratic stream’. This is because of its mass democratic mode of creation and resultant product. It also interrogates the notion of ‘The People’ and what ‘The People’ think, bringing into focus unacknowledged knowledge, especially the questions of orality and communication with ancestors. The notion of ‘brotherhood’ as used in the Charter is examined as connoting more than a gender-related concept–a specific way of human beings relating to one another, akin to that of siblings, signifying cooperation rather than individual isolation or competitiveness. This and questions of gender are addressed in the context of nation-building.     

Change and persistence in the Age of Modernization: Saint-Germain-d’Anxure, 1730–1895

Using a unique, comprehensive household-level dataset for a single French village, we study the process of modernization during a period of rapid institutional and demographic transformation. We document changes in fertility, mortality, literacy and intergenerational social mobility. The fall in fertility followed the French Revolution and the Age of Enlightenment, and preceded the rise in education by several decades. Rising literacy followed an increase in the supply of schooling due to the Guizot Law. All these changes occurred in the absence of industrialization in and around the village. We conclude that institutional and cultural changes originating outside the village were likely the dominant forces accounting for its modernization.     

Rethinking Industrial Policy for Low Income Countries

Abstract: The governments of low income countries should be giving more attention to ‘industrial policy’ than they and the aid donors have given in the past quarter century. (‘Industrial policy’ means any sectorally or activity‐targeted interventions, including in agriculture and services.) The first step is to discard the common assumption that industrial policy is about ‘picking winners’. The second step is to realize that industrial policy can be done ‘big’ or ‘small’, and by ‘leading the market’ or by ‘following the market’. It can be tailored to the available resources and state capacity. The third step is to see that the key issues of industrial policy are less to do with ‘what activities should be encouraged?’, or ‘what sorts of policy instruments are best?’, and more to do with, ‘how do we organize a process of discovery of sensible objectives and policies?’, and ‘how do we organize a constant nudging of producers to upgrade, diversify, link up with foreign firms?’ (where the nudging effort has to be targeted at some activities and sectors more than others). The paper illustrates with East Asian examples. One of the good effects of the current global crisis is that it has shaken confidence in the virtues of lightly regulated markets and free capital movements, and opened the way to a less ideologically charged debate about the role of the state in development—in which thinking is not precluded by easy jeers like ‘governments can't pick winners’ or ‘maybe the East Asians can do it but you can’t, so you have nothing to learn about industrial policy from them’.     

Comments on McCloskey and Weingast

Economic growth is an aspect of social change which cannot be explained by economic theory alone. McCloskey invokes ‘ideas’ but ideas only matter as embodied in institutions. Weingast makes this points but his institutions are too economistic. Only institutionalised self-emergence can explain massive, relentless and automatic change.     

The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis and Air Pollution in Finland

Abstract

The historiography of mercantilism has been described as a series of disconnected still pictures which reflect the shifting viewpoints of economic thought.¹ However, historians have favoured different concepts of mercantilism not only in response to the shifts of economic science but also because they have held, explicitly or implicitly, different opinions on the problem of how economic ideas are formed and of the role they have played in historical development. The following reexamination of some of those ‘stills’ concentrate on such differences.²     

Toward a service-oriented growth strategy

This article suggests that the linkage between industrial modernization and significant service sector employment gains has not been adequately considered and that such consideration might lead to a re-evaluation of the labour absorption argument which calls for more ‘appropriate’ technologies with higher labour intensity. This paper reviews the literature on labour absorption and appropriate technology. It then examines the experience of the service sector in both DCs and LDCs. The key relationships between the service sector and the economy are then developed, leading up to possible implications for LDC growth strategies.     

Phillips ‘loops’ in South Africa∗

Professor Phillips published his famous Phillips curve article in 1958. In his research, however, he observed that wages were rising more rapidly during the upswing of the business cycle, when unemployment was falling, than during the downturn, when unemployment was rising. When data on the respective variables was plotted, a distinct ‘loop’ was found. In the analysis of South African labour statistics, it was found that such a ‘loop’ existed in the White labour market. However, in the case of the Black labour market, only a weak image of a ‘loop’ was found. The real economic forces producing such a ‘loop’ were almost completely absent. This has implications not only for labour management and economic policy in general, but also for development strategies, because it implies that if Black labour had been left to market forces only, they would have been worse off than they are now.     

Coping with climate change in Africa: an analysis of local interpretations in Eastern Cape,SA

The emissions of greenhouse gases together with other anthropogenic activities has caused a change in global climatic conditions with corresponding negative effects on agricultural productivity, biodiversity and other socio-economic indices. Studies reveal that the impacts of climate change are felt most severely by the vulnerable, who have fewer adaptive capacities. In Africa, for example, little is known about local narratives on the ‘causes’ of climate change, and how such narratives influence climate change coping and adaptation strategies in specific local settings. Where do the ‘local’ and the ‘global’ intersect in the search for effective coping measures – and do they? Using a qualitative approach, this paper reveals how local conceptions of climate change appear to be rooted in ‘politics’ and spiritual forces. The paper highlights not only the major points of divergence between local interpretations and ‘Western’ conceptions about climate change, but also important areas of convergence between the two ideational domains.     

THE 200 KM CITY: BRISBANE,THE GOLD COAST,AND SUNSHINE COAST

Since the 1970s, several Southeast Queensland coastal towns in areas marketed as the ‘Gold Coast’ and the ‘Sunshine Coast’ have merged with each other and joined with Brisbane to become one of the world's longest urban coastal strips. The population of this 200 km long city is fast approaching three million. This urban pattern reflects the preferences of many Australians about where and in what type of housing they would like to live. The unplanned nature of this growth raises several policy challenges relating to resource use and traffic congestion.     

‘Outcome’ Assessment: What Exactly Are We Measuring? A Personal Reflection on Measuring the Outcomes from Competition Agencies’ Interventions

The UK and Dutch competition agencies were pioneers in Europe in publishing annual assessments of the ‘outcomes’ from their work. These countries had new competition laws to report on and a strong culture of public sector evaluation. Other countries have followed, with different approaches but enough common ground for OECD to develop a standard methodology. However, the measures are simplistic: they miss many important aspects of ‘outcomes’. I nonetheless argue that these assessments are worth carrying out but they should be recognised for what they are: a rather sophisticated measure of agency activity, rather than a simplistic assessment of outcomes.     

从华夏体系历史看美国国际关系理论范式的西方特色

美国国际关系研究的三理论大理论范式具有无政府状态假设、科学理性范式、见物不见人等三大明显的缺陷,适合西方但未必适合解释中国的历史文化和国际关系问题。从中国历史上存在过的华夏体系来看,用这三大范式进行理论解释有很大的缺陷。比如,华夏体系也是一个无政府结构,但这是一个有权威的、等级特别明显的结构;与用安全解释大国崛起的西方观点不同,华夏体系中出现的霸权国家似乎并没有明显的安全问题存在;西方的均势理论似乎特别不适合华夏体系中秦国战胜六国联盟的历史。华夏体系各国的人员、商品、思想的流动和开放程度都很高,也通过频繁的盟会产生了一些共有的国际规范和规则,但这种一定程度的相互依赖与合作又是十分有限的、不可靠的,齐国霸权、晋国霸权、魏国霸权之后,这种合作都没能持续下去。华夏体系中的那些华夏国家也的确有一个身份问题。但身份的认同不如建构主义所说的有那样大的作用。所以,应把这三大范式从普遍性的理论研究范式还原成西方特色的理论研究范式。     

Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union

The success of the integration process of the new EU Member States is reflected by the convergence performance. Sustainable convergence assumes that potential growth rates of the less developed countries continuously exceed the dynamics of the potential output of the developed countries. However, the financial and economic crisis of 2008 has resulted in a fundamentally new situation as regards these issues. This paper considers real convergence, catch-up processes and in terms of these the main economic growth trends. The study focuses mainly on the potential growth trends. The recession has, however, affected the individual countries to different degrees. The study classified the Member States into four groups based on the initial circumstances and the vulnerability originating from them; these are ‘Developed’ countries and ‘Convergence’ countries, three groups of the latter are ‘Mediterranean’ countries, ‘Catch-up’ countries and ‘Vulnerable’ countries. Potential growth and the contribution of the individual growth factors might follow significantly different paths in these country groups. The convergence countries might face especially great challenges. Potential growth rate of the ‘Convergence’ countries—according to simulations—is expected to recover less in the mid-term, than that of the ‘Developed’ countries, i.e. convergence slows down, it might come to a halt or even divergence might occur in certain countries. It might result in a ‘Convergence Crisis’ particularly in certain ‘Mediterranean’ and ‘Vulnerable’ new Member States. Also, longer term simulations indicate that the European convergence processes might slow down and stop in certain countries. These trends may have significant effects on economic policies facilitating potential growth. We apply extensive quantitative analysis, production function and growth accounting approaches in the study.     

A bibliometric account of Chinese economics research through the lens of the China Economic Review

Very few studies on the assessment and evolution of Chinese economics research draw on quantitative methods, namely bibliometrics. Bibliometrics is a powerful tool that helps to explore, organize and analyze large amounts of information in a quantitative manner. Selecting the most important economic journal focusing on the Chinese economy – the China Economic Review (CER) – we classified and assessed all the (512) articles that have been published in CER from its founding (1989) to December 2010. Based on these articles, and undertaking an exploratory statistical analysis on three databases – a ‘bibliographic’ database (512 articles), a ‘roots’ database (over 10 thousand citations), and an ‘influence’ database (over 3 thousand citations), we concluded that: 1) ‘Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth’; ‘Economic Systems’, and ‘International economics’ are the most important topics for Chinese economics literature; 2) there is a trend in Chinese economics research for growing ‘rigor’, associated to a noticeable rise in the weight of formal/mathematical-based articles; 3) the ‘International economics’ topic does not influence nor is it influenced by Chinese economics literature; and 4) Chinese economics literature is characterized by a certain level of endogamy, given that its range of influence is rather concentrated (geographically) in China and the USA.     

New roles of nonprofit organizations and partnership with government and/or business

The term NGO has been used more specifically to encompass nonprofit organizations engaged in international programs. In recent years, what Professor Lester Salamon of the Institute of Policy Studies of Johns Hopkins University has referred to as the ‘nonprofit sector’ seems popular worldwide. He defines nonprofit organizations as ‘organizations that share seven common features: they are formally constituted; organizationally separate from government; non‐profit‐seeking; self‐governing; voluntary to some significant degree; nonreligious; and nonpolitical (Salamon and Anheier 1994).’ To avoid confusion, the term ‘NGO’ is used in this paper in reference to nonprofit, nongovernmental organizations that are independent from any particular government office or private corporation and which are pursuing public interests.     

Growth Patterns and Inequality in the Presence of Costly Technology Adoption

The stylized facts that motivate this article include the diversity in growth patterns that are observed across countries during the process of economic development and the divergence over time in income distributions both within and across countries. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model in which technology adoption is costly and agents are heterogeneous in their initial holdings of resources. We interpret the adoption cost as the resources expended in acquiring skills associated with new technologies. Endogenous growth occurs in our model largely as a result of human capital deepening. The analytical results of the model characterize three growth outcomes associated with the technology adoption process depending on productivity differences between the technologies. These outcomes are labeled ‘poverty trap,’ ‘dual economy,’ and ‘balanced growth.’ The model is then capable of explaining the observed diversity in growth patterns in addition to the divergence of incomes over time and across countries.