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本文基于中国银行间债券市场的日度交易数据,构建以订单流为基础的交易指标,通过包含公开信息和私有信息的债券定价模型以及时间序列聚类的投资组合分析和多种模型分析,对各类机构投资者预测债券收益率变化的能力进行研究。研究发现,在银行间债券市场,保险机构、公募基金、私募基金和境外机构的交易能够预测债券收益率的变化,但在交易券种(国债、政策性银行债)、预测期限、预测能力来源等方面均存在显著差异。本文还对机构投资者的预测能力进行了机制检验。研究发现,在境内机构投资者中,公募基金具备更强的交易预测能力和信息获取与解读能力;境外机构投资者对宏观货币政策信息具有更强的预测能力。本文的研究结果表明,在我国银行间债券市场,机构投资者的交易有助于促进价格发现,增加债券收益率的信息含量,从而提升市场有效性。最后,本文基于实证结果提出相关政策建议。 相似文献
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中国正处在以证券投资基金为代表的机构投资者快速发展阶段,基金对于股票市场的影响力日益显现.机构投资者在发展的同时,其投资行为对股市产生了一些影响,影响了股票市场的稳定性.文章对中国机构投资者进行了界定,分析了中国机构投资者的特征,再通过机构投资者的规模、信息不对称、交易行为等方面分析了机构投资者时股市波动的影响,最后提出了机构投资者发挥稳定市场作用的条件. 相似文献
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机构投资者对证券市场的影响 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
机构投资者在中国市场上出现已经近10年,它的功能和作用是否符合人们对它的预期?回答这个问题对进一步培育和发展机构投资者具有重要的政策意义。本文使用GARCH事件模型对机构投资者对证券市场波动性的影响进行了实证检验。经验证据显示机构投资者的出现具有稳定中国股市的作用,每一次关于发展机构投资者的政策都具有稳定市场的作用。 相似文献
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作为证券监管机构的监管重点与难点,内部人交易一直以来备受关注。如何有效监督内部人交易,维护证券市场秩序与公平,保护中小投资者利益,是一个重要且具有现实意义的问题。基于2007-2015年中国A股上市公司内部人交易数据,文章探究了机构投资者持股对内部人交易获利能力的影响,发现:(1)机构投资者的存在会提高内部人买入行为的获利能力,会抑制内部人卖出行为的获利能力;(2)机构投资者对内部人交易的影响在卖出样本中存在截面差异,具体表现为在国有企业样本组和非两职合一样本组更显著;(3)机构投资者异质性分析发现,基金投资者会提升内部人买入交易的获利能力,合格的境外投资者会抑制内部人交易的总体获利能力,其他机构投资者一方面会促进买入行为的获利能力,一方面会抑制卖出行为的获利能力;(4)机制路径检验发现,机构投资者对内部人卖出交易的抑制作用存在提高公司盈余质量、提升治理水平和改善信息披露水平三种机制路径。总之,文章验证了机构投资者影响内部人交易的研究推论。 相似文献
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本文采用上证2005~2010年共24个季度数据的面板数据,采用固定效应模型,实证分析了机构持股比例与股市收益率波动之间的关系,以探讨机构投资者能否真正起到缓解股市收益率波动的作用。实证结果表明,机构持股比例与股市收益率波动具有显著的正向关系,即机构投资者比例的增加反而使得股市收益率波动上升,因此监管当局希望在现阶段大力引进机构投资者来缓解股市波动的愿望可能很难实现。 相似文献
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证券分析师的盈利预测存在着显著的乐观偏差,且这种乐观偏差会因投资者情绪的变化而忽高忽低。基于开户数量构建个人、机构投资者情绪指标,实证研究投资者情绪对证券分析师乐观偏差的影响。研究发现,个人、机构投资者情绪越乐观,证券分析师的乐观偏差越大;机构投资者情绪的波动比个人投资者更为剧烈,且对证券分析师的影响也大于个人投资者;在考虑了公司的截面特征后,结论依然稳健。研究有助于进一步理解新兴市场中证券分析师的盈利预测行为,并为投资者使用证券分析师的研究报告提供决策参考。 相似文献
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ZHU Zhi-yu 《重庆与世界》2014,31(11):6-11
The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction. 相似文献
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《世界经济与政治》2017,(6):156-160
Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future? To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions: the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge. 相似文献
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《The Scandinavian economic history review / [the Scandanavian Society for Economic and Social History and Historical Geography]》2012,60(1):60-79
Abstract The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time. This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages. In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research. 相似文献
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The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure. 相似文献
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This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions. 相似文献
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商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上,尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能,资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标,以求真实反映银行经营的成果,有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系,从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。 相似文献
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We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit. 相似文献
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Torsten J. Gerpott und Nejc M. Jakopin 《Zeitschrift für Planung & Unternehmenssteuerung》2008,19(1):7-37
Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte
(AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten
in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch
Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls
unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem
wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn
die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt
überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs
bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant
bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten.
In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile
eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser
beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von
TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage
und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen,
erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.
相似文献
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Arjun Jayadev 《World development》2011,39(2):159-173