美国科技创新实力及创新体系优劣势分析

美国在世界经济中的霸主地位,很大程度上取决于其科技创新实力。美国创新实力强,整体竞争力表现突出;基础研究能力强,科技论文产出世界领先;企业创新能力强,技术创新成果大量涌现。美国政府非常重视创新,不断出台新政策促进创新,提高对创新基础要素的投资,支持创新的商业环境,并且,产学官结合紧密。美国政府是科技创新的重要推手,美国国家创新体系有着独特的优势,而且这种优势有望继续为美国经济增长提供重要支撑。     

Understanding the recent Sino-U.S. trade conflict

ABSTRACT

To understand Sino-U.S. trade relations, this article interprets the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the Trump administration’s perspective. The Trump administration claims that the Chinese government’s subsidies and high import tariffs cause the Sino-U.S. trade deficit, resulting in job losses in the U.S. The Trump administration therefore argues that imposing high tariffs on Chinese exports can resolve the deficit. The article finds that U.S. statistical accounting overestimates the deficit. Reducing China’s imports cannot increase U.S. employment, and China provides the United States with low-price and high-quality products. Chinese investors tend to invest the surplus by purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds. In addition, the United States limits Chinese investments due to ‘national security’ concerns. China’s upgrading to the high end of the global value chain is a consequence of economic development. Therefore, the two countries should rebalance Sino-U.S. trade by seeking economic and trade cooperation via trade negotiations.     

美国对华5G科技竞争策略与对策研究——基于“大战略”理论视角

5G是引领未来的战略性技术，是实现产业升级的重要基础设施，也是中美科技竞争的关键领域。梳理美国对华5G科技竞争策略对于提升我国5G治理能力、创造竞争优势具有重要意义。运用“大战略”理论，从目标、手段、威胁、效益4个层面对美国5G策略进行分析，指出美国5G策略体现了维护国家安全和国际领导地位的目标，通过成立专职机构、加大科研投入、培养通信人才、提升频谱和基建能力等手段促进本国5G发展，并运用出口管制、外资审查、限制投资、外交结盟等方式对中国进行打压和防范。中美5G竞争日益激烈且存在彼此封闭、割裂的风险，国际关系将成为影响竞争态势的关键因素。中国应坚定战略目标，优化战略手段，应对挑战并把握机遇，积极推动中国5G健康发展。     

次贷危机后美国经济金融化趋势是否逆转?

20世纪70年代以来资本主义经济金融化趋势显著,以金融资本为主导的积累模式在一定时期内刺激了资本主义经济增长,但也为由美国次贷危机引发的2008年国际金融危机埋下了祸根.而今,距离危机的爆发已经十余年,危机后当代资本主义也经历了一系列调整.本文考察了危机后美国政府的系列"再工业化"政策、新自由主义持续强劲的势头、新形势...     

The impact of the demographic transition on capital formation

"The population of the United States is aging. We review a variety of the implications this has for U.S. national saving rates, and discuss the policy issues that they raise. After reviewing what different models would predict for household saving over the next several decades, we consider how the demographic transition may also affect national saving through changes in government behavior. Ways in which the composition of household saving might change as individuals age are also analyzed along with the implications of changes in government fiscal policy for asset composition."     

美国的前沿科学进展

本文研究了美国近年来在基础科学领域取得的主要进展、国家科学政策动向以及前沿领域的研究重点,认为在生命科学、物质科学、能源科学、信息科学以及诸多交叉学科领域正孕育着革命性突破,美国政府为确保国家在科学领域的世界级领导地位,加大了联邦政府的资金投入。本文研究将为我国准确把握世界科学技术发展态势、整体部署前沿科学研究提供参考。     

THE LOOMING U.S. EXTERNAL DEBT: HOW SERIOUS IS IT?

This article examines the state of U.S. external debt accumulation, especially the rising burden of interest payments. It points out that the favorable yield differential between U.S. external assets and liabilities may be declining at the same time the United States has become the world's largest international debtor. The favorable yield differential has enabled the United States, which became a net debtor in 1987, to avoid making net interest payments on its international debt until 1994. However, servicing the increasing U.S. net international debt is likely to be a much greater burden in the future as the favorable yield gap wanes while net debt continues to grow.     

Partisan Cycles in Offshore Outsourcing: Evidence from U.S. Imports

The wage and employment effects of offshoring roil politics in the United States and around the world. Firms that offshore either outsource their activities to unaffiliated businesses, or internalize production by establishing subsidiaries from which they import intrafirm. We argue that the political environment in trade partner countries influences U.S. offshoring patterns in ways that have been ignored in the extant literature. Drawing on the political business cycle literature, we expect higher production costs and lower profits for firms in capital (labor) intensive sectors when the Left (Right) is in power. These partisan cycles, in turn, shape the sectoral composition of exports from the partner to the United States, and the degree to which trade is conducted intrafirm. Under a Left‐ (Right‐) leaning government in a partner country, U.S. intrafirm imports of capital‐ (labor‐) goods increase relative to total imports in these industries. Examining highly disaggregated U.S. import data, we find strong support for our argument. Our results indicate that the effect of partisan governments on offshore outsourcing depends on factor intensities of production, which vary across industries. The degree of internalization in global sourcing is shaped in part by the distributional objectives of partisan governments, and not by economic factors alone.     

美国政府科技计划概述

美国联邦政府科技计划始于二战时期“曼哈顿”计划,并逐渐从单纯维护国家军事安全扩展到科技、经济领域,以期保持科技竞争优势和新兴产业掌控优势。在国家层面上,美国没有类似国家中长期科技发展规划纲要。联邦政府科技计划大多数是根据美国会立法而制定,具有高度的权威性和法律的强制性。美国各科技计划的针对性、目的性很强,是为了解决特定领域的重点科技问题,指标清晰,规定详尽。政府科技计划项目产生的知识产权归项目单位所有,不论该单位营利或非营利,政府可以有条件无偿使用。     

Support of State and Local Finance under Persistent Federal Deficits

The United States?? federal government subsidizes local public finance through grants. Given projected U.S. deficits, this may prove untenable. Further, a broader range of policy instruments may offer more effective support of local governments. Herein four policies are considered beginning with current policy: federal deficit financed grants, federal placement, federal underwriting, and Federal Reserve System interventions. Options are evaluated in a general framework considering citizen and government objective functions. Policy recommendations are for interventions to specify terms of entry and exit (as with automatic stabilizers), and for initiation of contingency-simulation exercises to determine the potential of options identified herein.     

美国政府科技计划概述

美国联邦政府科技计划始于二战时期“曼哈顿”计划,并逐渐从单纯维护国家军事安全扩展到科技、经济领域,以期保持科技竞争优势和新兴产业掌控优势。在国家层面上,美国没有类似国家中长期科技发展规划纲要。联邦政府科技计划大多数是根据美国国会立法而制定,具有高度的权威性和法律的强制性。美国各科技计划的针对性、目的性很强,是为了解决特定领域的重点科技问题,指标清晰,规定详尽。政府科技计划项目产生的知识产权归项目单位所有,不论该单位营利或非营利,政府可以有条件无偿使用。     

The changing skill of new immigrants to the United States: recent trends and their determinants

"The objective of this paper is to describe and understand the determinants of changes in the number and quality of new legal immigrants to the United States over the last 25 years. Our main interest is in understanding the behavioral response of potential immigrants to changes in the U.S. immigration law regime (as well as in the origin-country determinants of demand for immigration to the United States) and how these affect and have affected the skill composition of immigrants.... [The authors] assembled a new data set based on annual INS records of all new, legal immigrants over the period 1972 through 1995.... Inspection of our new data indicates that since the mid 1980s the average skill of new, U.S. legal immigrants has been rising relative to that of the U.S. population. An econometric analysis of a panel of country-specific measures of the skill of immigrants based on these data over the period 1972-1992 indicates that these changes are due in part to changes in immigration law and to the overall rise in the real purchasing power of countries outside the United States."     

美国总统的科技观与科技政策（二）

美国在20世纪上半叶成为新的世界科技中心,其经验一直是世界科技政策研究的热点。本文通过对美国相关文献研究发现,美国宪法确立的保护知识产权的基本国策．以及数位杰出的国家领导人致力于优先发展科学技术的先进理念和政策,是美国迅速崛起成为世界科技强国的关键因素。     

The United States and United Kingdom activities of Japanese banks, 1980–1988

This paper analyzes the United States and United Kingdom activities of Japanese banks by integrating their activities in these two markets with the regulatory environment for banks in Japan and Japan's overall external financial position, as well as with business opportunities in the two host countries. The paper concludes that the regulatory environment in Japan, including restraints on interest rates and possible quantitative restraints, has had an impact on activities of Japanese banks in these two foreign markets.Japanese banks appear to have adjusted to their domestic regulatory environment by using their London branches as a flexible funding source and their U.S. offices in extending commercial and industrial loans to Japan-based companies as well as a substitute location for interbank trading. In both markets Japanese banking offices are large net barrowers from unrelated banks because of constraints on raising funds in their homer market.     

Constitutional protection of economic rights: The Swiss and U.S. experience in comparison

This paper analyzes the contribution of the Swiss and the U.S. Constitution to protect economic liberties, and compares the different strategies that both constitutions rely on to achieve this goal. Pertinent provisions in the Swiss Constitution are rather precise but relatively easy to change, whereas the U.S. Constitution is characterized by vaguely formulated constraints that are difficult to amend formally and that are interpreted by the Supreme Court. Nevertheless, the substantial constitutional changes that did occur in both countries seem to have followed strikingly similar patterns: Initially, regional integration through reciprocal market opening within both countries facilitated the constitutional protection of economic liberties. Subsequently, the constitutional protection of economic liberties eroded in both countries, especially against federal legislation, due to changes in the interpretation of the constitution through the courts, or by formal amendment. Lastly, both constitutions were not immune against sudden demands by special interest groups that were being raised during times of crisis or war. I wish to thank Beat Blankart, Ludger Schuknecht and Barry Weingast for helpful comments.     

THE EBB AND FLOW OF FISCAL ACTIVISM

During the last quarter of the 20th Century, the conventionalwisdom prevailing in academic, political and financial circleswas definitely against government deficits. At the turn of thecentury, however, a substantial recourse to deficit spendingpractices in the United States reopened the debate on the usefulnessof countercyclical fiscal policies. This essay discusses themain contents of this debate, reviewing the contributions tovarious symposiums held at a number of U.S. Federal ReserveBanks. A comparison with the views on this issue prevailingin Europe is also provided.     

次贷危机背景下美国财政政策走势的预测——基于凯恩斯主义视角的一个分析

次贷危机爆发的根源一直是学术界争论的焦点.对战后六十多年来美国财政政策历史沿革的考察,美国每当遇到经济增长放缓、有步入衰退的危险时,政府都会遵循凯恩斯主义的赤字财政理论,利用财政工具扩大有效需求,同时还会在一定程度上对经济长期增长率的提高进行财政投入.次贷危机爆发是与美国政府多年来推行的赤字财政政策密不可分的.而在全球经济失调背景下,财政赤字的过度膨胀又为政府在应对危机、化解系统风险时设置了财政约束刚性的障碍.从中短期来看,为应对经济危机的威胁,防止产出出现大幅下滑.预计美国政府将采取以下财政措施:第一,冻结减税计划,防止赤字进一步扩大;第二,加大转移支付力度,帮助贫困家庭获得工作和生活必需品,防止出现大面积社会不满;第三,在国际资本市场上发行美国政府特别债券,筹集应对经济危机、扩大政府购买开支的资金;第四.加大政府购买支出力度,且这种购买主要体现在对经济结构改变有重要推动意义的项目上;最后,美国在实行以上积极财政政策的同时,还将辅以相应的汇率与货币政策.     

BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA: IMPLICATIONS OF THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This study's primary objective is to evaluate empirically the economic effects of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The paper emphasizes bilateral trade flows of agricultural and industrial products between the United States and Canada, given that the FTA removes tariff and non-tariff barriers. It evaluates the FTA's impact on the two countries' trade with third countries. The paper specifies a traditional log-linear trade model consisting of import demand and export supply equations for both agricultural and industrial products. It uses quarterly time-series U.S. and Canadian trade data for 1972–1985.
The study uses the two-stage least-squares estimator to estimate the models. The models had R coefficients ranging from 0.78 to 0.99, indicating that the models' explanatory variables explain most causes of variations in the dependent variable. This study reveals that U.S. imports of agricultural and industrial products from Canada were more sensitive than were Canadian imports not only to import and domestic prices but also to world prices. This is because Canadian consumers have less domestic substitutes than do their U.S. counterparts. Also, Canada has a smaller internal market than does the United States. The study estimates that U.S. imports from Canada will increase $2.8 billion while Canadian imports from the United States will increase $1.2 billion. The impact on the two countries' trade with third-party countries will be insignificant.     

On the Constitution of a Compound Republic

A compound republic presents the unique opportunity for each level of government to check abuses of the constitution by the other level. This article summarizes why judicial review has not proved to be sufficient to maintain a constitution and the necessary changes to the U.S. Constitution to make the structure of this compound republic more effective.     

Idiosyncratic Risk in the United States and Sweden: Is There a Role for Government Insurance?

We examine the effects of government redistribution schemes in an economy where agents are subject to uninsurable, individual specific productivity risk. In particular, we consider the trade-off between positive insurance effects and negative distortions on labor supply and saving. We parameterize the model by estimating productivity processes on Swedish and U.S. data. The estimation results show that agents in the United States are subject to more idiosyncratic risk than agents in Sweden. Although distortions are significant, the welfare benefits of government redistribution and insurance systems can be substantial. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E20, H21.