经济型宾馆业顾客忠诚驱动因素研究

在现有研究成果的基础上,首先提出经济型宾馆行业顾客忠诚驱动综合理论模型,然后利用通过实证调研收集的样本数据,运用AMOS软件建立了顾客忠诚驱动的结构模型,并对模型进行检验。检验结果表明：顾客价值、服务因素、转移成本、顾客满意感、顾客信任感和顾客归属感是经济型宾馆顾客忠诚的决定因素;顾客价值、服务和转移成本直接影响顾客的行为性忠诚,顾客满意感、顾客信任感和顾客归属感直接影响顾客的态度性忠诚等。最后指出本研究在理论与实践上的意义。     

Infinite Histories and Steady Orbits in Repeated Games

We study a model of repeated games with the following features: (a) Infinite histories. The game has been played since days of yore, or is so perceived by the players: (b) Turing machines with memory. Since regular Turing machines coincide with bounded recall strategies (in the presence of infinite histories), we endow them with "external" memory; (c) Nonstrategic players. The players ignore complicated strategic considerations and speculations about them. Instead, each player uses his/her machine to update some statistics regarding the others′ behaviour, and chooses a best response to observed behaviour. Relying on these assumptions, we define a solution concept for the one shot game, called steady orbit. The (closure of the) set of steady orbit payoffs strictly includes the convex hull of the Nash equilibria payoffs and is strictly included in the correlated equilibria payoffs. Assumptions (a)–(c) above are independent to a large extent. In particular, one may define steady orbits without explicitly dealing with histories or machines.     

Modeling stochastic innovation races

We consider a firm moving towards a stochastic final destination to be chosen from a discrete set after a decision period. The decision period itself may be deterministic or stochastic. We assume the firm can move at variable innovation (R&D) speed associated with a monotone nondecreasing variable cost, and it can also stop and move anywhere. There is a fixed cost per time unit “carried” by the firm as well, associated with keeping at the knowledge (technology) frontier. We investigate various types of the firm's optimal trajectory in the R&D race during the decision period. The model is adapted and applied to racing behaviour in the Japanese telecommunication industry.     

On the incentives for horizontal merger in an industry with dominant firms

The paper employs a variant of Perry and Porter's (1985) ‘oligopoly-fringe’ model to analyse the incentives for horizontal merger. We consider several ways in which mergers may form, and their impact upon the profits of both participating and non-participating firms. We investigate the alternative regimes of collusive and non-cooperative behaviour in order to highlight the often perverse results of apparently straightforward merger activities.     

A dynamic model of the interaction between the state and the private sector

The main characteristic of the micro model developed in this paper is the endogenous behaviour of the state. The state is treated as an organization in its own right, made up of politicians and bureaucrats. Its behaviour is related to the interests of these agents and their relative power within the state organization. The economic consequenses of this interest representation by the state, and the impact of structural coercion (constraints), originating from the private sector, on these consequences, are our main concern. A particular feature of the model is that it allows for the fact that technology may be dependent on the state's activities.     

工程项目工期延误的关键风险研究

工程项目的工期延误风险范围广且难以定量分析,本文在文献研究的基础上,提出了工程项目工期延误的关键风险因素,按照结构方程的分析步骤,运用SPSS13．0和AMOS7．0统计软件对数据进行了分析,对测量模型进行了检验,并得到了最终的结构方程模型,为防止工程项目工期延误起到指导性作用。     

文化产业竞争力研究的进展、问题与展望

20世纪80年代以后,随着国际竞争的加剧,产业竞争力成为国内外学者研究的重要课题。近年来,随着文化产业的兴起,文化产业竞争力的问题开始受到关注。目前,文化产业竞争力的研究还处于初始阶段,本文致力于在现有研究成果的基础上指出文化产业竞争力研究的不足,并提出今后的研究方向。     

The effect of unemployment insurance on the riskiness of occupational choice

This paper examines the effect of unemployment insurance on the riskiness of occupational choice by postulating a model of job search in which job offers have two characteristics; their wage and their security of tenure. Two versions are considered: a general case in which the unemployment benefit is earnings-related, and a special case in which the benefit is of a flat-rate form. Of particular interest in the paper is the individual's desired trade-off between wage and security of tenure, and how this trade-off is affected by the type of insurance scheme in operation. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that an earnings-related scheme encourages risk-taking behaviour by the poor, and risk-avoiding behaviour by the rich; in contrast, a flat-rate scheme neither encourages nor discourages risk-taking.     

Two Experiments to Test a Model of Herd Behaviour

We carry out two experiments to test a model of herd behaviour based on the work of Banerjee (Quarterly Journal of Economics, CVII, 797–817, 1992). He shows that herding occurs as a result of people observing the actions of others and using this information in their own decision rule. In our experiments herding does not occur as frequently as Banerjee predicts. Contrary to his results, the subjects' behaviour appears to depend on the probabilities of receiving a signal and of this signal being correct. Furthermore, Banerjee finds that the pattern of decision making over a number of rounds of the game is volatile whereas we find that decision making is volatilewithin rounds.     

The theory of public goods: non-nash behaviour

Most treatments of equilibrium public goods provision assume zero conjectural variations in the sense that each individual regards the behaviour of the rest of the community as independent of his own. This paper introduces nonzero conjectural variations into the model. A diagram is introduced which can depict both the individual's and the community's equilibrium in the presence of nonzero conjectural variations. Equilibrium and optimal outcomes are compared, and a specific functional form is used to investigate the effect of community size on the nature of equilibrium. Finally, we discuss the requirement that conjectures should be consistent.     

Econometric policy evaluation and expectations

Recently large-scale econometric models have been criticized as inappropriate tools for policy evaluation. One critical point often mentioned is the way expectations are formed. This paper shows that the way the process of expectations formation is considered does not play a crucial role. Instead, the ability to model agents' reactions to changes in policy is the essence of the critique. As long as government behaviour is sufficiently accessible in the model, applied econometrics may still use large-scale systems for which rational expectations solutions would be troublesome if not impossible to reach.     

创新网络嵌入性、社区意识对企业创新绩效的影响

借助嵌入性理论将社区意识作为关系嵌入性与结构嵌入性形成的前因变量引入创新网络进行分析,提出社区意识、嵌入性与创新绩效三者间关系的假设模型。采用中国情境下的成熟量表对相应变量进行测量,并借助SPSS25.0和AMOS24.0构造结构方程模型,对电子数码、医药、食品及机械零部件等行业企业的110份有效调研问卷进行分析。结果表明：社区意识对创新绩效存在显著正向影响;社区意识对关系嵌入性与结构嵌入性存在显著正向影响;关系嵌入性对创新绩效有显著正向作用,而结构嵌入性与创新绩效之间的因果关系不显著;关系嵌入性部分中介了社区意识对创新绩效的正向影响。最后,提出相应的创新网络治理措施。     

The forecasting ability of a cointegrated VAR system of the UK tourism demand for France, Spain and Portugal

This paper uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology as an alternative to Deaton and Muellbauer’s Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), to establish the long-run relationships between I(1) variables: tourism shares, tourism prices and UK tourism budget. With appropriate testing, the deterministic components and sets of exogenous and endogenous variables of the VAR are established, and Johansen’s rank test is used to determine the number of cointegrated vectors in the system. The cointegrated VAR structural form is identified and the long-run structural parameters are estimated. Theoretical restrictions such as homogeneity and symmetry are tested and not rejected by the VAR structure. The fully restricted cointegrated VAR model reveals itself a theoretically consistent and statistically robust means to analyse the long-run demand behaviour of UK tourists, and an accurate multi-step forecaster of the destinations’ shares when compared with unrestricted reduced form and first differenced VARs, or even with the structural AIDS model.     

Unemployment,inflation and price expectations with empirical results for Belgium

This article deals with the question whether there exists a trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the short as well as in the long run in the Belgian economy. A wage-price model incorporating the phenomenon of price expectations is presented. The model is verified empirically and an inquiry is made into the dynamic characteristics of Belgium's wage-price nexus. The main results of the paper are first that a positive answer may be given to the question we asked ourselves and secondly, that the possibility of explosive behaviour of wage and price changes is to be excluded.     

Fiscal illusion and the demand for government expenditures in the UK

This paper examines whether variables commonly used to test standard fiscal illusion arguments (that tax structure affects voters' demands for public goods) can help explain the time-series behaviour of government expenditure in the UK during 1955–1994. We modify a standard median voter model to incorporate fiscal illusion via ‘less visible' (indirect) taxes and deficit financing. While we find evidence that both are positively associated with increased government spending, this would appear to be consistent with both fiscal illusion and standard efficiency arguments.     

Drinking under communism: Why do alcohol consumption habits in Eastern Europe differ from the west in the long-run?

This paper looks into possible explanations for differences between Eastern and Western Europe alcohol consumption behaviour even twenty years after the collapse of the Soviet regime. It suggests these differences can be viewed as an expression of cultural habits. We explore different ways of defining exposure to the communist regime: using number of years a person spent under the regime and also a dummy indicator for spending formative years (18–25) in it. We find both to be strong factors in explaining alcohol consumption behaviour. We consider differences in frequency of alcohol consumption and binge drinking using European Health Interview Survey (EHIS) micro data from Eurostat. Estimations are run with ordered probit model for men and women separately. Evidence suggests a statistically significant effect of experiencing communist regimes, which is larger for women's alcohol consumption frequency than for men's. It is also the most important factor in explaining more frequent male binge drinking. These effects hold after controlling for socio-economic, country level and time characteristics. This suggests the attitudes towards alcohol consumption could be more permissive in the Eastern Bloc countries.     

领导亲和型幽默对员工越轨创新的影响——上下级关系和角色宽度自我效能的多重中介作用

摘 要：以社会交换理论为基础，探讨了领导亲和型幽默对员工越轨创新的影响。构建员工越轨创新的“情景-认知-动机-行为”整合模型，研究上下级关系和角色宽度自我效能在两者之间发挥的单独中介作用和链式中介作用。针对中国本土8家企业的316份有效问卷，利用AMOS、MPLUS等软件采用结构方程模型和Bootstrap等方法对样本数据检验，结果表明：领导亲和型幽默对员工越轨创新存在显著正向影响；上下级关系和角色宽度自我效能在两者之间分别起到部分中介作用；并且领导亲和型幽默能够通过上下级关系与角色宽度自我效能的连续中介作用间接促进员工越轨创新。     

Experts against adverse selection: A note on the existence of equilibrium with costly appropriable information

The existence of competitive equilibrium in Laffont's (J. Econ. Theory10 (1975)) model of adverse selection with costly information is studied. The existence of an equilibrium with finite prices is demonstrated without unusual restrictions on preferences or the technology of information production. This is made possible by changing the way in which the behaviour of information producing agents is modelled, and allowing for some public information.     

Consistent conjectures and voluntary contributions to public goods: why the conventional theory does not work

The conventional theory of voluntary contributions to public goods assumes that each person maximises his utility taking other people's behaviour as given (Nash conjectures). It is now coming to be recognised that this theory is inconsistent with observed behaviour. This paper argues that the problems of the theory are compounded — and not, as some economists have argued, resolved — by relaxing the assumption of Nash conjectures. If individuals' conjectures are consistent, each person will hold the (correct) belief that other people's contributions are inversely related to his own. Under most reasonable assumptions, equilibrium is a state in which no-one contributes anything.     

企业集团价值效应模型研究——基于财务协同控制的实证分析

在适应外部环境和内部条件变化的过程中,需要重新审视企业集团的价值创造因素、能力和水平,财务协同控制正是企业集团价值效应的动力和来源。结合企业集团的有关调查数据,构建企业集团财务协同控制模型,并运用AMOS17.0软件对模型进行设定、估计和评价。实证分析表明:财务战略协同控制、财务资源协同控制和财务关系协同控制是一个相互影响相互作用的协同控制耦合系统,对于企业集团的价值效应产生具有联动作用机制,企业集团应充分结合自身实际,发挥财务协同控制管理职能,保证这一系统的有效运行。