从人性、民性到社会形态

正以下的文字分为三个部分,第一部分是粗线条的分析("九条论纲")。用近似几何逻辑的形式一步一步地推导并列出观点;第二部分是叙述部分,采用举出事例、摆出历史事实或直接说理的方式进行陈述笔者的思考过程;第三部分是用一个图表把上面两个部分的内容概括起来,以利于读者从整体上了解作者要表达的整体立意。这个题目很大,用有限的文字表述这样规模的一个论题也只能显得松散和凌乱。作者想要说明这样一个论点:一个社会的管理制度决定于那个民族的文化现状,而那个民族的特定文化意识决定于那个民族的民性的养成,其中最主要的因素     

从“居养”到“参与”：中国残疾人社会保护政策的演变

本文考察了中国残疾人社会保护政策的发展历史,将其概括为两个发展阶段,即“居养”阶段和“参与”阶段。居养政策的理论基础是人道主义和仁政,以院舍收养作为残疾人社会保护的主要方式,导致残疾人的社会隔离;权利模式的理论出发点是平等和权利,通过构建权利体系保障残疾人的平等参与权,从而实现残疾人的社会回归。目前,中国残疾人社会保护正从“居养”政策向权利政策转向。     

从绿色信贷到赤道原则:公司社会责任演化的视角

作为中国环境经济制度和公司社会责任思想建设的切入点，绿色信贷能否成功走向赤道原则这个商业金融组织的社会责任基准，从“狭义的公司社会责任概念→公司社会回应→公司社会表现→相关利益者理论→公司公民”的演化路线，可以得到清晰的答案和深刻启示。     

The international system : Limits to forecasting

This article describes the obstacles which stand in the way of analysis of the future of the international system and identifies research needs for surmounting them. Such forecasting must be based on an understanding of the structure of the system and its evolution, yet given the heterogeneity of existing paradigms in the study of international relations, it is difficult to give coherent expression to that structure. Progress in forecasting research on the international system therefore implies a lessening of the heterogeneity of those paradigms, and suggestions are made with this end in view.     

社会保险费率调整的他国镜鉴:从全球趋势到典型国家经验

全球范围内,社会保险费率向下调整成为主流趋势。OECD国家、转轨国家及新兴经济体的平均费率在近十年明显下降,这与劳动生产率增速放缓、制度结构性调整及缴费基数快速上涨有一定关系。德国通过总费率内部结构调整实现了加险种不加负担;美国在费基限额设置上充分体现年龄、个体、职种差异,追求效率亦不失公平;英国的待遇水平与缴费年限严格挂钩,并为社会弱势群体设置缴费抵免优惠,彰显了制度济弱功能;俄罗斯废税为费,回归保险本质;日本的费率调整以财政平衡为目标,实施税制和社会保障一体化改革。基于典型国家的费率调整经验,我国的费率改革应坚持长期精算平衡,提升参数公平性,充分考虑特殊弱势群体利益,提高经办管理效率及统筹考虑综合税赋,以参数改革推动制度深层次结构性改革。     

社会保险费率调整的他国镜鉴:从全球趋势到典型国家经验

全球范围内,社会保险费率向下调整成为主流趋势。OECD国家、转轨国家及新兴经济体的平均费率在近十年明显下降,这与劳动生产率增速放缓、制度结构性调整及缴费基数快速上涨有一定关系。德国通过总费率内部结构调整实现了加险种不加负担;美国在费基限额设置上充分体现年龄、个体、职种差异,追求效率亦不失公平;英国的待遇水平与缴费年限严格挂钩,并为社会弱势群体设置缴费抵免优惠,彰显了制度济弱功能;俄罗斯废“税”为“费”,回归“保险”本质;日本的费率调整以财政平衡为目标,实施税制和社会保障“一体化改革”。基于典型国家的费率调整经验,我国的费率改革应坚持长期精算平衡,提升参数公平性,充分考虑特殊弱势群体利益,提高经办管理效率及统筹考虑综合税赋,以参数改革推动制度深层次结构性改革。     

从失业补偿到就业促进：发展型社会政策视角下中国失业保险制度的改革与发展

在发展型社会政策理论日益兴起的今天,社会保险政策的改革与发展应以该理论的精神内核为指导,重视被保险人人力资本积累和社会资本建设,更加注重社会保险的风险预防和就业促进功能。以此为指导,研究认为中国失业保险应当更加重视制度的发展性功能,通过调整相关制度改革和调整,构建起促进再就业、预防失业与失业救济＂三位一体＂复合功能体系,实现从单一的失业保险制到综合性就业保障机制的转变。     

我国对西方社会保障制度的借鉴

西方社会保障制度对我们启示是：社会保障的发展应与社会经济发展相适应；权力与义务要兼顾；公平与效率要兼顾；福利、国家、政府、社团、社会、私人之间的问题要综合考虑；应当依法扩大社会保险的覆盖面，提高保险费征收缴率，推行以养老、失业和医疗为重点的社会保险；完善失业保险制度；开征统一的社会保障税；加快实现养老保险社会化管理和服务。     

A new approach to forecasting exchange rates

Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several potential problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the consumer price index used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon. These high-frequency forecasts could be appealing to those who want up-to-date exchange-rate forecasts. Finally, as our forecasts are obtained through a simulation procedure, estimation uncertainty is made explicit in our framework that provides the entire distribution of exchange rates, not just a single point estimate. Using exchange rates of six major currencies to illustrate the approach, we compare the Big Mac forecasts with those derived from a random walk and the CPI and find some support for our approach, especially at longer term horizons.     

中国社会救助70年:从数量扩张走向质量提升

经过近70年的改革与发展,中国社会救助制度在救助项目、覆盖人群、救助标准和财政支出等数量方面实现了由少到多、由小到大、由点到面的巨大发展,但是仍然存在质量欠缺问题,主要体现在法制规范不健全、项目安排不尽合理、全民覆盖尚未到位、救助标准偏低且城乡差距拉大、央地财政责任不清晰以及缺乏科学的制度准入和退出机制六个方面。为此,政府应当加强法制规范建设、优化制度的项目结构、适度提升救助标准、明确央地财政责任以及建立科学的制度准入和退出机制,促使中国社会救助从数量扩张走向质量提升,以逐步实现社会救助制度的成熟、定型。     

From rationality to hyperreality: paradigm poker

This paper, following McGoun's (1997) seminal article comparing the economy of financial securities to a hyperreal poker game, argues that finance and accounting researchers should take the “linguistic turn” that has rejuvenated theory and research in many, if not most, of the social science and humanities in recent decades. In general terms, this means following Ludwig Wittgenstein's language game paradigm rather than Karl Popper's scientific deductive hypothesis testing methodology. The paper illustrates this by drawing on some of Jean Baudrillard's' ideas, particularly his concept of hyperreality and his phases of the image theoretic.The paper presents a poststructuralist genealogical analysis of the radical ruptures and reformulation of the meaning attributed to the accounting sign of earnings over the feudal, counterfeit, production, and simulation eras. It concludes that, as with many other signs in contemporary society, the earnings sign no longer has any relationship with, nor does it any longer refer to, any real or intrinsic profit but instead floats ungrounded in today's financial economy.The paper recommends that researchers in finance and accounting adopt paradigms from literary theory, semiotics, linguistics, and semiology rather than continue to rely on economics-based theory, which has lost its power for explaining and predicting happenings in today's financial economy of self-referencing models and images.     

郭健民:从专家到管理者

像很多南方人一样,郭健民看上去要比实际年龄年轻。虽然他自己不这么看,"我可不年轻了。"不过再怎么说他也确实属于CFO群体中的少壮派。这群人除了年龄相似—通常都在40岁左右;还有一个共同点就是,有海外留学和工作背景,在跨国公司中受到过严格的职业训练,郭建民也是如此。为了能在事先约定的时间采访,他推掉了一个需要去深圳出差的会议,而对约定的信守,是职业精神的一个重要体现。郭健民是2010年年初赴智联上任CFO之职的。现在很多人应该还记得前些年由黄健翔、徐静蕾代言的智联广告,之前几年智联的发展势头一直很猛。但是,由于各种原因,公司多年一直亏损,正是在这样的背景之