从人性、民性到社会形态

正以下的文字分为三个部分,第一部分是粗线条的分析("九条论纲")。用近似几何逻辑的形式一步一步地推导并列出观点;第二部分是叙述部分,采用举出事例、摆出历史事实或直接说理的方式进行陈述笔者的思考过程;第三部分是用一个图表把上面两个部分的内容概括起来,以利于读者从整体上了解作者要表达的整体立意。这个题目很大,用有限的文字表述这样规模的一个论题也只能显得松散和凌乱。作者想要说明这样一个论点:一个社会的管理制度决定于那个民族的文化现状,而那个民族的特定文化意识决定于那个民族的民性的养成,其中最主要的因素     

从“居养”到“参与”：中国残疾人社会保护政策的演变

本文考察了中国残疾人社会保护政策的发展历史,将其概括为两个发展阶段,即“居养”阶段和“参与”阶段。居养政策的理论基础是人道主义和仁政,以院舍收养作为残疾人社会保护的主要方式,导致残疾人的社会隔离;权利模式的理论出发点是平等和权利,通过构建权利体系保障残疾人的平等参与权,从而实现残疾人的社会回归。目前,中国残疾人社会保护正从“居养”政策向权利政策转向。     

From Social to Private Ownership: Multiple Blockholders in Slovenian Unlisted Firms

This paper studies the ownership structures of unlisted privatized firms in Slovenia. On the basis of official ownership records for all nonfinancial firms over a six-year period (1999-2004), we explore the factors responsible for the concentration of ownership and for the dissolution of the multiple blockholder structures that these firms were assigned at privatization. We observe significant path dependence: patterns of ownership and control are in part determined by the persistence of the initial privatization owners (state funds, privatization investment funds, employees, and managers) as firm blockholders. We also find that ownership concentrates less in larger, riskier, and better-performing firms. Multiple blockholders remain present in the firms in which the two largest owners are of the same type, which presumably makes it easier for them to control in coalition.     

Social and technological forecasting in the Soviet Union

Futures research is now an accepted part of the Soviet planning and control system. Soviet forecasting methods are similar to Western methods, differing chiefly in a greater insistence that complex methods are no substitute for a substantive understanding of the problem. Soviet methodological innovations are worth watching for, however. Actual forecasts are often not published, but the Soviet vision of the future is fairly clear. Key events will include the disappearance of capitalism and the achievement of controlled fusion. Despite its prominence, Soviet futures research has a somewhat uncertain future; further growth will depend both on its own achievements and on any realignment of official policy which may come with the inevitable leadership changes in the Kremlin.     

从绿色信贷到赤道原则:公司社会责任演化的视角

作为中国环境经济制度和公司社会责任思想建设的切入点，绿色信贷能否成功走向赤道原则这个商业金融组织的社会责任基准，从“狭义的公司社会责任概念→公司社会回应→公司社会表现→相关利益者理论→公司公民”的演化路线，可以得到清晰的答案和深刻启示。     

An empirical investigation of multiperiod tail risk forecasting models

In the context of multiperiod tail risk (i.e., VaR and ES) forecasting, we provide a new semiparametric risk model constructed based on the forward-looking return moments estimated by the stochastic volatility model with price jumps and the Cornish–Fisher expansion method, denoted by SVJCF. We apply the proposed SVJCF model to make multiperiod ahead tail risk forecasts over multiple forecast horizons for S&P 500 index, individual stocks and other representative financial instruments. The model performance of SVJCF is compared with other classical multiperiod risk forecasting models via various backtesting methods. The empirical results suggest that SVJCF is a valid alternative multiperiod tail risk measurement; in addition, the tail risk generated by the SVJCF model is more stable and thus should be favored by risk managers and regulatory authorities.     

The international system : Limits to forecasting

This article describes the obstacles which stand in the way of analysis of the future of the international system and identifies research needs for surmounting them. Such forecasting must be based on an understanding of the structure of the system and its evolution, yet given the heterogeneity of existing paradigms in the study of international relations, it is difficult to give coherent expression to that structure. Progress in forecasting research on the international system therefore implies a lessening of the heterogeneity of those paradigms, and suggestions are made with this end in view.     

社会保险费率调整的他国镜鉴:从全球趋势到典型国家经验

全球范围内,社会保险费率向下调整成为主流趋势。OECD国家、转轨国家及新兴经济体的平均费率在近十年明显下降,这与劳动生产率增速放缓、制度结构性调整及缴费基数快速上涨有一定关系。德国通过总费率内部结构调整实现了加险种不加负担;美国在费基限额设置上充分体现年龄、个体、职种差异,追求效率亦不失公平;英国的待遇水平与缴费年限严格挂钩,并为社会弱势群体设置缴费抵免优惠,彰显了制度济弱功能;俄罗斯废“税”为“费”,回归“保险”本质;日本的费率调整以财政平衡为目标,实施税制和社会保障“一体化改革”。基于典型国家的费率调整经验,我国的费率改革应坚持长期精算平衡,提升参数公平性,充分考虑特殊弱势群体利益,提高经办管理效率及统筹考虑综合税赋,以参数改革推动制度深层次结构性改革。     

社会保险费率调整的他国镜鉴:从全球趋势到典型国家经验

全球范围内,社会保险费率向下调整成为主流趋势。OECD国家、转轨国家及新兴经济体的平均费率在近十年明显下降,这与劳动生产率增速放缓、制度结构性调整及缴费基数快速上涨有一定关系。德国通过总费率内部结构调整实现了加险种不加负担;美国在费基限额设置上充分体现年龄、个体、职种差异,追求效率亦不失公平;英国的待遇水平与缴费年限严格挂钩,并为社会弱势群体设置缴费抵免优惠,彰显了制度济弱功能;俄罗斯废税为费,回归保险本质;日本的费率调整以财政平衡为目标,实施税制和社会保障一体化改革。基于典型国家的费率调整经验,我国的费率改革应坚持长期精算平衡,提升参数公平性,充分考虑特殊弱势群体利益,提高经办管理效率及统筹考虑综合税赋,以参数改革推动制度深层次结构性改革。     

从失业补偿到就业促进：发展型社会政策视角下中国失业保险制度的改革与发展

在发展型社会政策理论日益兴起的今天,社会保险政策的改革与发展应以该理论的精神内核为指导,重视被保险人人力资本积累和社会资本建设,更加注重社会保险的风险预防和就业促进功能。以此为指导,研究认为中国失业保险应当更加重视制度的发展性功能,通过调整相关制度改革和调整,构建起促进再就业、预防失业与失业救济＂三位一体＂复合功能体系,实现从单一的失业保险制到综合性就业保障机制的转变。     

我国对西方社会保障制度的借鉴

西方社会保障制度对我们启示是：社会保障的发展应与社会经济发展相适应；权力与义务要兼顾；公平与效率要兼顾；福利、国家、政府、社团、社会、私人之间的问题要综合考虑；应当依法扩大社会保险的覆盖面，提高保险费征收缴率，推行以养老、失业和医疗为重点的社会保险；完善失业保险制度；开征统一的社会保障税；加快实现养老保险社会化管理和服务。     

中国社会救助70年:从数量扩张走向质量提升

经过近70年的改革与发展,中国社会救助制度在救助项目、覆盖人群、救助标准和财政支出等数量方面实现了由少到多、由小到大、由点到面的巨大发展,但是仍然存在质量欠缺问题,主要体现在法制规范不健全、项目安排不尽合理、全民覆盖尚未到位、救助标准偏低且城乡差距拉大、央地财政责任不清晰以及缺乏科学的制度准入和退出机制六个方面。为此,政府应当加强法制规范建设、优化制度的项目结构、适度提升救助标准、明确央地财政责任以及建立科学的制度准入和退出机制,促使中国社会救助从数量扩张走向质量提升,以逐步实现社会救助制度的成熟、定型。     

The notion of technological limits: An aid to technological forecasting

One approach to technological forecasting involves trend extrapolation. The trends extrapolated are usually performance or structural parameters of artefacts. Forecasters are able to extrapolate better if they can visualize limits beyond which these trends cannot proceed. If the capabilities of artefacts fall short of their ultimate constraints much scope exists for technological development. If these capabilities lie near their limits, less potential exists. This article explores the possibility of creating a standard chart of technological limits as an aid to technological forecasters. A taxonomy of limits is suggested based on an existing taxonomy of technological trends. The article discusses some of these limits and points out which are well documented and which require further research.     

Sales forecasting in financial distribution: a comparison of quantitative forecasting methods

This paper deals with the issue of forecastability of sales activities of independent financial advisers (agents). Employing the most common quantitative methods on a diverse sample of timelines from multiple advisory companies, we have found that under most settings, these methods offer sub-par performance with high relative errors and no statistical differences between them. When a more granular approach is applied (reflecting sales unit size), ARIMA and the simple moving average emerge as significantly less accurate. This outcome is true for all sales units regardless of their size, when relative error is concerned. Thus, our analysis confirms the difficult forecastability of financial sales, speaking against the utilisation of more sophisticated forecasting methods, which mostly fail when compared to their much simpler and less costly counterparts.