The economic dimensions of malnutrition in young children

1 billion people - 1/3 of them children under the age of 10 - live on diets that are deficient in essential calories. Focus in this discussion is on the magnitude of the problem. The economic implications of specific intervention programs designed to solve the problem are reviewed. Caloric intake is closely associated with per capita income, and malnutrition characterizes the poorest segments of the population. Since the lowest-income groups have larger families, the incidence of malnutrition among children is certain to be higher than the incidence among adults. 3 factors will determine whether, on the basis of current trends, caloric malnutrition can be expected to be eliminated among the poorest segments of the population of the development countries: 1) the future income growth of the malnourished groups; 2) their propensity to use additional income to increase their caloric consumption; and 3) the future changes in the relative price of the main staples, basically cereals. The problem of malnutrition cannot be resolved quickly enough without explicit measures to raise the level of caloric consumption. Governments can initiate a wide range of programs and policies in an effort to augment the caloric consumption of children in the target population - transfer of cash to target households, target group oriented food programs, and food stamps for certain groups. In order for a food program to have more of an effect on consumption than would an equivalent transfer of income, 2 conditions need to be met: 1) the food must be made available at lower prices and in larger quantities than that previously consumed; and 2) reselling of the food must be precluded. In sum, the only effective solution for dealing with the problem of malnutrition among children of developing countries is either a more equitable distribution of income or supplying the food to the target population at a price far below its normally supply price.     

人口红利对消费服务业发展的影响与公司估值

为明晰未来十年我国消费服务类行业发展的前景和特征，从而为确定消费服务类公司估值的参数提供依据，本文以人口红利为切入点，探讨了人口红利对国民经济和消费服务行业发展的作用机制。本文认为，人口红利是国民经济增长的必要条件，其作用能否成为显性结果还要受到宏观经济调控因素的影响。同时，本文分析了农副食品加工业、食品加工业和食品制造业投资与人口转变的关系，结合消费者的教育、城市化、消费倾向等特征变化，指出了未来消费服务类行业公司的发展趋势和公司估值应注意的问题。     

证券支持黑龙江、吉林两省西部地区农业机械合作社建立的可行性分析

随着我国人口红利逐年下降和城镇化进程不断加快,中国农村地区农业人口老龄化问题日渐突出,如不及时解决农村劳动力缺失的问题,十年之后中国粮食安全将难以保障。农业生产机械化是我国农业升级最为基础的部分,其高效的生产力可有效补充中国农村出现的劳动力缺口。但是我国耕地所属散乱,极不利于大型农机作业,只有将各户土地集中使用,才能解决我国农业生产机械化最棘手的问题。本文以东北西部地区为样本剖析农业机械化生产的收益构成,研究农村合并耕地成立农业机械合作社的可行性。本文借鉴国内外较为成熟的证券化理论,结合东北地区实际情况,首创的提出利用证券市场加速我国农业升级的构想。     

Natural frequencies and Bayesian reasoning: the impact of formal education and problem context

Research suggests that children and adults are able to solve Bayesian problems when natural frequencies are used, but most studies have involved only students or academics. The present research focuses on random samples from the general population. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that the natural-frequency format resulted in more Bayesian responses than the probability format. Results of Experiment 3 showed that when the task is not framed as a medical problem and the numbers are not too difficult, about 40% of the general population could correctly solve the problems. More importantly, the natural-frequency format resulted in a substantial increase in correct answers in the lower level of formal education group. Experiment 4 suggests that the context of a problem influences people’s ability to solve a Bayesian problem. Participants were twice as likely to solve a social problem compared with a medical problem. The results of the four experiments show that natural frequency resulted in much better estimates than probabilities. It should be emphasized, however, that even when natural frequencies were used, a majority of participants were not able to solve the problems correctly.     

基于灰色关联的江西省粮食生产与耕地保护研究

粮食安全问题不仅是生存与发展的经济问题,也是一个社会问题,直接关系到社会发展与稳定。运用灰色关联理论,分析影响江西省粮食生产与耕地数量变化的主要因素,并预测到2020年在粮食安全战略下江西省耕地保有量。研究结果表明：粮食作物播种面积、人口数量等因素影响突出,因此,在粮食生产中应进一步加强政策支持、基础设施建设、科技指导和融资创新等。     

The food problem and the evolution of international income levels

In most poor countries, large fractions of land, labor, and other productive resources are devoted to producing food for subsistence needs. We show that a model incorporating the “food problem” can provide new and useful insights into the evolution of international income levels. In particular, we find that the food problem can explain why some countries started to realize increases in per capita output more than 250 years later in history than others. We also show that the food problem has important implications for growth miracles and the speed at which a country converges to its balanced growth path.     

金融创新如何缓解信任品市场失灵?——中国食品安全责任强制保险的自然实验

信任品市场(如食品、医药等)存在的问题一直困扰着中国和世界很多国家。关于产品和服务质量的信息不对称(道德风险和逆向选择)会导致信任品市场失灵。缓解信任品市场失灵,一种常见的解决方案是政府监管;而经济学家认为更加基于市场的解决方案(例如强制责任保险等金融创新)可能更为有效。在理论上,强制责任保险有两种相反的效应:保险公司的监督减少了道德风险 vs. 保险加剧了企业的道德风险,但一直亟待实证检验。幸运的是,中国食品安全责任强制保险的改革实验走在了世界的前列。本文利用了中国在不同地区、不同时间推行的这个自然实验,通过双重差分的方法识别出责任保险对于信任品市场的因果效应。本文的研究发现,强制责任保险能显著降低食品安全事故发生概率。这表明政府强制推行的金融创新可以成为信任品市场失灵的一种有效的替代性解决方案。     

Changing lifestyles and consumption patterns in developing countries: A scenario analysis for China and India

China and India are the world's largest developing economies and also two of the most populous countries. China, which now has more than 1.3 billion people, is expected to grow to more than 1.4 billion by 2050, and India with a population of 1 billion will overtake China to be the most populous country with about 1.6 billion population. These two countries are home to 37% of the world's population today. In addition, China and India have achieved notable success in their economic development characterised by a high rate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the last two decades. Together the two countries account already for almost a fifth of world GDP.The most direct and significant result of economic growth in India and China is the amazing improvement in quality of life (or at least spending power) for an increasing share of the population. The populations of both the countries have experienced a transition from ‘poverty’ to ‘adequate food and clothing’; today growing parts of the population are getting closer to ‘well to do lifestyles’. These segments of the society are not satisfied any more with enough food and clothes, but are also eager to obtain a quality life of high nutrient food, comfortable living, health care and other quality services.The theme of this paper is to analyse how the major drivers contributed to the environmental consequences in the past, and to take a forward look at the environmental impacts of these driving forces in China and India. The paper identifies population, affluence and technology to be the major driving forces in environmental pollution for these two countries then applies the simple equation of Impact=Population×Affluence×Technology, or I=PAT to evaluate the effects of changes in these drivers on CO₂ emissions.     

Reducing microbiological risk in the kitchen: piloting consensus conference methodology as a communication strategy

Foodborne diseases are a major public health problem. Improper storage and food preparation at home can favour microbial contamination of food. Consumers play a crucial role in controlling this risk. To reduce exposure to risk, it is essential to provide information and guidance on contamination management in the home. The aim of this study was to pilot a method of participatory communication addressed to young consumers and designed to reduce the microbiological risks associated with the consumption of meat products. The methodology was based on application of the ‘consensus conference’ model on food safety issues. The consensus conference served not only as a participatory strategy to share knowledge but also as a method for sharing in the development of risk communication content (guidelines) to be disseminated to the reference target. Young people’s perceptions, habits and behaviour in the kitchen were explored in the preparatory stage of the consensus conference by means of a survey and a focus group. Three consensus conferences were held in Italy attended by 60 university students (19 and 22 years old). Application of the consensus conference model as a communication process proved to be an effective opportunity to engage young consumers and experts on the topic of food safety. This discursive participation approach was broadly welcomed by the participants. Specifically, direct interaction with the experts was considered to be an important part of the communication process. The findings of the project were used to select concise communication content based on the perceptions, behaviours and fact-finding needs of the selected target. Publication of this content in the form of guidelines on microbiological risk management at home has enabled the results of the consensus conferences to be extended and the targeted communication material on risk reduction in daily food handling practices to be disseminated.     

专业合作社:粮食产业化经营的现实选择

小生产和大市场的矛盾严重威胁着我国的粮食安全,要保证粮食安全就必须加快粮食产业化经营的步伐,而龙头企业加农户的模式,虽然在一定程度上实现了粮食生产资源的优化配置,却难以真正实现企业和农民之间风险共担、利益共享的局面。解决的途径就是走合作社的道路,在政府的扶助下,建立粮食合作社。     

Exposure of the human population to BSE infectivity over the course of the BSE epidemic in Great Britain and the impact of changes to the Over Thirty Month Rule

The Over Thirty Month Rule (OTMR) was introduced in 1996 as a measure to reduce the exposure of the population to the BSE agent by limiting the age of animals that could be slaughtered for food. This study was carried out as part of the process of reviewing the OTMR that is currently being carried out by the UK Food Standards Agency (FSA). Data on the infectivity of bovine tissues, the development of infectivity through the incubation period and the cattle to human species barrier are reviewed. All the possible routes by which infective material could be included in food for human consumption, including contamination with infected tissues in the abattoir, embolism following slaughter, dorsal root ganglia in meat, mechanically recovered meat and failure of SRM controls are evaluated over the period of the BSE epidemic. It is estimated that the exposure from one fully infected animal slaughtered for food at the present time would be about 27 bovine oral ID₅₀ units, this compares to a peak value of about 1900 early in the epidemic. At present the exposure is primarily due to dorsal root ganglia, but over the course of the epidemic the main contributor to total infectivity is estimated to have been mechanically recovered meat (MRM). However, it is also shown that the potential exposure to infectivity due to MRM in any one meal would have been very small, casting doubt on whether this could have been an effective source of infection. By combining these estimates with estimates of numbers of infected animals by incubation period and year it is estimated that a total of some 54 million bovine oral ID₅₀ units would have been consumed from 1980 to date, reaching a peak of about 11 million units in 1993, but falling rapidly following the introduction of SBO ban and the OTMR. In 2001 it is estimated that the exposure for the whole UK population is only 2.5 bovine oral ID₅₀ units. The study has helped demonstrate that current exposure to BSE infective material in the UK is very low, and would remain very low if the OTMR was amended or abolished.     

A family view of population questions

To relate family situations to the population problem, viewing family decisions as one of the ultimate determinants of how many people there are on the globe and how rapidly the total population will increase, is proposed as a way of viewing the population problem of the world. Population problems of the developed countries with a growth rate of 1% or less per annum are different from those of the countries with a high growth rate and which have about 45-50% of the population below age 15. This group of young people, plus older people who no longer contribute to productive activity, form the dependency burden on a country. Some sociological and economic variables that affect family size decisions are discussed, and the importance of really understanding these variables in order to formulate better population policies is stressed.     

How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe?

Some global catastrophes (such as nuclear wars, pandemics, or an asteroid collision) might destroy civilization. Some propose building well-stocked shelters constantly staffed with people trained to rebuild civilization in such cases. These “refuges” would have an unimpressive expected cost per life saved, but could conceivably have an impressive expected cost per future generation allowed to exist. From some ethical perspectives that highly value future generations, building refuges may therefore seem like a promising idea. However, several factors significantly dilute the potential impact of refuges, even if the proposed catastrophes occur. Government/private disaster shelters, people working on submarines, and isolated peoples who prefer to be left alone serve these purposes to some extent already. Many proposed catastrophes do too much/too little damage for refuges to help, affect the environment in ways that make refuges largely irrelevant, or otherwise give relatively limited advantages to the people in refuges. In global food crises or social collapse scenarios, refuges would add little to aggregate stocks of population, resources, food, and relevant skills; but they may add something unique in terms of isolation and coordination. These potential benefits of refuges seem the most promising, and may be worthy of further analysis.     

The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Microdata Evidence from Japan

We propose a novel approach for measuring inflation expectations, which can alleviate the rounding number problem. Furthermore, we examine how consumers form inflation expectations. We find that consumers heterogeneously update their information sets on prices; 46% of the consumers collect information about the consumer price index at least once a quarter, while the remaining consumers less frequently or never obtain this information. We also find that forecast revisions are sensitive to a change in food prices. More than half of consumers are attentive only to a change in food prices and may form their inflation expectations using food price changes as a signal of fluctuations in the overall inflation rates. The existence of consumers who are inattentive to aggregate inflation casts doubt on the transmission of monetary policy through the management of expectations.     

Can compulsory liability insurance reduce agency costs? Evidence from China

This paper discusses the impact mechanism of compulsory liability insurance on agency costs. Studying the companies listed in China’s food manufacturing industries in 2011–2018, we find that compulsory liability insurance significantly reduces the two types of agency costs, namely, alleviating the principal-agent problem and the principal–principal problem. Robustness tests confirm this finding. The reduction of information asymmetry and the improvement of internal control quality are the mechanisms leading to this result. Compulsory food safety liability insurance plays a significant role in reducing agency costs when company ownership is concentrated or when media coverage is high. This paper provides empirical evidence for joint regulation by the public and private sectors, also provides theoretical reference for further optimizing food safety governance mode.     

卖空机制与食品安全——基于溢出效应的视角

卖空机制通过威慑效应约束厂商的自利动机,为食品安全治理提供了一种可行的资本市场途径。本文利用2015—2018年原国家食品药品监督管理总局披露的食品抽检数据,考察卖空强度对地区食品质量的影响。采用食品类上市公司融券余额在流通市值中占比的加权平均值度量地区卖空强度,体现了食品企业受到的卖空威慑压力。结果发现,卖空强度越大,当地整体的食品抽检质量越好。机制分析发现,卖空威胁在提升上市食品企业产品质量的同时,通过供应链协同、同群效应以及减少信息不对称的途径传导至同地区的其他企业,产生了食品质量治理的溢出效应。异质性分析显示,卖空对食品安全治理的溢出效应在要素市场发育不足、法制相对不健全和欠发达地区更加明显,卖空作为外部监管的补充机制发挥了食品安全治理的功能。因此,完善融资融券制度,适时合理地将食品类上市公司纳入融券标的,为惩治劣质食品提供资本市场手段,对确保食品安全问题“零容忍”具有现实意义。     

Turn public problems to private account

Many managers face increasing calls to invest corporate resources in charitable causes. How should executives balance a firm's very real economic imperative to maximize profitability with its hypothetical moral imperative to improve society? To provide one answer, the author draws on his experience as president of an economic-development company, IBEC. Viewing profit as "an essential discipline and measure of economic success" but not "the sole corporate goal," the company actively invested in social programs that met four criteria: they served a need of the local population; they required innovative approaches; they made sense on economic grounds; and they respected the social norms of the community. Such civic-minded efforts, the author argues in this prescient 1971 article, not only improve people's lives but also create the foundation for more affluent and dynamic markets--markets that ultimately produce greater profits for business. For example, one of IBEC's earliest ventures was directed toward solving Venezuela's problems in retail food marketing. Many important items were unavailable at the small stores where people shopped. So in 1949, working with local partners, IBEC opened a supermarket. Supermarkets soon changed the food-buying habits of the nation, and the initiative helped alter patterns of food distribution and created the reliable demand needed to establish a host of local suppliers. Return on IBEC's investment, and that of its local partners, was most satisfactory, the author reports. The road to meeting a public need-especially a major one--is rarely easy, the author says. But if management sizes up the need well, there is a good chance its new venture will survive under adversity.     

对全国产粮大县土地规模经营情况的调查——以吉林省榆树市为例

吉林省榆树市素有＂天下第一粮仓＂美誉,连续十年被评为＂全国粮食生产先进县（市）标兵＂。近年来,榆树市土地流转力度加大,规模经营呈快速发展态势,各种合作模式相继出现,成为农村生产力发展的重要推力和农民增收致富的有效途径。人民银行榆树市支行调查显示：榆树市土地规模经营涉及农、牧、副、渔等多个领域,普遍取得良好效果,但在政策执行、资金投入和抵抗风险等方面依然存在问题,需要多方合力协调解决。     

The future practice of medicine: The challenge of global factors

Three global issues are considered of paramount importance in determining what should be the future of medicine: population growth (with the concomitant issues of ageing, unemployment, and food shortages); energy supplies; and nuclear weapons. Yet the future practice of medicine may lie through adopting a community-oriented approach, as against adopting more high-technology methods.     

中国养老保险改革的政策效应分析

基于世代交叠模型,考虑中国经济“新常态”中出现的特点和趋势,分析中国养老保险改革中多种政策的潜在影响。研究结果表明：国家不能仅仅依靠延迟退休政策来应对老龄化问题,应保持社会养老保险制度的相对稳定、完善金融市场体系、提高资金运用效率。