Testing limits to policy reversal: Evidence from Indian privatizations

We examine the effect of regime change on privatization. In the 2004 Indian election, the pro-reform BJP was unexpectedly defeated by a less reformist coalition. Stock prices of government-controlled companies that had been slated for privatization by the BJP dropped 3.5% relative to private firms. Government-controlled companies that were under study for possible privatization fell 7.5% relative to private firms. This is consistent with investor belief of a “point of no return,” where advanced reforms are more difficult to reverse. Further analysis suggests that layoffs, combined with the privatization announcement, served as a credible commitment to privatize.     

大国崛起与人民币汇率政策

人民币汇率是老生常谈。但在过去五年．发生了很大的变化，其中之一就是今天的中国经济和五年前的中国经济有根本性的区别，中国经过了五年高速增长，在世界经济的地位和作用发生了根本性的变化。在具体介绍我的看法以前．首先介绍一些结论。第一，人民币汇率的政策问题．应该放在中国作为大国在世界经济崛起的背景下。这和小国经济的汇率政策有根本性的差别。第二，关于人民币汇率本身被低估了多少，在学术界并没有一致的看法，完全取决于使用什么样的数据、考虑什么样的因素。从总体来说，关键的问题不在于要在多长时间内做出调整，     

Knowledge, limits and boundaries

In this paper the underlying concern is the problem of knowledge. How do we understand the world, what is ‘scientific’ knowledge, and to what extent is this knowledge limited by the fact that the world in which we live is complex? The problems associated with the status of our knowledge of the world have been central to philosophy all along. Here I will focus on the way in which the acknowledgement of complexity transforms some of the traditional conceptions of (especially scientific) knowledge. I will also examine the notions of boundaries and limits, arguing that these notions are not problems we have to get out of the way, but that they are inevitable as soon as we start talking of ‘knowledge’.     

The multinomial option pricing model and its Brownian and Poisson limits

The Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein binomial model is generalizedto the multinomial case. Limits are investigated and shown toyield the Black-Scholes formula in the case of continuous samplepaths for a wide variety of complete market structures. In thediscontinuous case of Merton-type formula is shown to result,provided jump probabilities are replaced by their correspondingArrow-Debreu prices.     

Market making, prices, and quantity limits

This article develops a model of spread and depth setting underasymmetric information where the equilibrium depth is proportionallymore sensitive than the spread to changes in the degree of informationasymmetry. The analysis uses a one-period model in which a risk-neutral,monopolistic market maker faces a price-sensitive liquiditytrader and a better informed trader who is alternatively riskneutral and risk averse. The equilibrium depth can take valuesranging from 0 to infinity, depending on the information asymmetry,the asset volatility, and the strength of the liquidity demand,while the spread remains positive and finite.     

国外央行抵押品政策调整实践与借鉴意义

抵押品政策是央行货市政策操作的配套制度安排。从政策实践看,在国际金融危机影响沉重时期,欧美日等主要国家和地区央行对抵押品政策做出相应的调整,增强对市场流动性的支持。本文在梳理抵押品政策规则基础上,回顾国际上央行抵押品政策的变化特点,进而探讨这一发展趋势对于完善国内央行抵押品操作的借鉴意义。     

Models, knowledge creation and their limits

Instead of modelling socio-economic situations as mechanical systems with fixed, predictable behaviour, we now see that socio-economic systems are really complex systems, in which various possible structural changes can occur giving rise to a range of different possible futures. This necessary future uncertainty automatically imposes an uncertainty on the precise pay-off that any particular action or decision that an agent may take. Because of this, the decisions that agents will make are also uncertain and this poses limits to our ability to model socio-economic systems and therefore to the knowledge that we can have at any time about the future. Because of this constant knowledge decay, what matters in real world situations of markets and business is the generation of new, current knowledge. Contrary to traditional science in which the natural laws are independent of who knows them, in social and economic systems, knowledge of system behaviour decays over time, and is in any case used up when it triggers new behaviour in the system. Several examples of evolutionary market systems are presented which demonstrate how knowledge is constantly created and destroyed, and the problem of change, innovation and design are shown to be part of a ‘boundedly rational’ view in which imperfect search gives rise to ‘good enough’ behaviour. All of this is a radical departure from the traditional approach that falsely believe in the optimisation of designs, behaviours and profits. Complexity tells us that we must accept risk and uncertainty and work loosely, keeping our options open as much as possible.     

Money, banking, and monetary policy

An important function of banks is to issue liabilities, like demand deposits, that are relatively safe and liquid. We introduce a risk of theft and a safe-keeping role for banks into modern monetary theory. This provides a general equilibrium framework for analyzing banking in historical and contemporary contexts. The model can generate the concurrent circulation of cash and bank liabilities as media of exchange, or inside and outside money. It also yields novel policy implications. For example, negative nominal interest rates are feasible, and for some parameters optimal; for other parameters, strictly positive nominal rates are optimal.     

Banking scope and financial innovation

We explore the implications of financial system design for financialinnovation. We begin with assumptions about the investment opportunitiesof firms, their observable attributes, and the roles of commercialbanks, investment banks, and the financial market. We examinethe borrower's choice between bank and financial market funding,the commercial bank's choice of monitoring capacity, and theinvestment bank's choice of whether to invest in financial innovation.Our main result is that financial innovation in a universalbanking system is stochastically lower than innovation in afinancial system in which commercial and investment banks arefunctionally separated.     

Risk,uncertainty and monetary policy

The VIX, the stock market option-based implied volatility, strongly co-moves with measures of the monetary policy stance. When decomposing the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility (“uncertainty”), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being stronger. The result holds in a structural vector autoregressive framework, controlling for business cycle movements and using a variety of identification schemes for the vector autoregression in general and monetary policy shocks in particular. The effect of monetary policy on risk aversion is also apparent in regressions using high frequency data.     

Environmental policy,pollution, unemployment,and endogenous growth

The paper develops a model of endogenous economic growth with pollution externalities and a labor market distorted by union monopoly power and by taxes and transfers. We study the optimal second-best pollution tax and abatement policy and find that a shift toward greener preferences will tend to reduce unemployment, although it will hamper growth. We also find that greater labor-market distortions call for higher pollution tax rates. Finally, we show that a switch from quantity control of pollution combined with grandfathering of pollution rights to regulation via emission charges has the potential to raise employment, growth, and welfere without damaging the environment.     

Growth,governance and corporate payout policy

We show that when growth opportunities decreased following the end of the Cold War, defence firms responded by increasing total payout. This change in policy was largely driven by increased stock buybacks as opposed to changes in cash dividends and primarily by firms that faced stronger external governance. On the other hand, firms with weaker internal governance that were more severely affected by the reduced growth chose to alter the mix of payout at the expense of repurchases. Overall, our findings (i) demonstrate a causal link where exogenous shocks to growth cause payout policy changes, (ii) support the role of internal governance in payout policy design where entrenched managers pre‐commit to higher dividends and (iii) emphasize the monitoring role of external governance in mitigating agency costs of free cash flow.     

Bank runs, welfare and policy implications

This paper studies the welfare implications of various government policies that have been used to prevent bank runs. The benchmark model suggests that a bank run is a business-cycle-state-related phenomenon and it leads to the failure of the risk-sharing mechanism provided by the banking sector. Extensions of the model show that a number of policy instruments, including the suspension of convertibility of deposits, the taxation on short-term deposits, reserve requirement and blanket guarantee, turn out to be inefficient. Instead, I propose that a limited-coverage deposit insurance scheme or capital requirements can be welfare-improving.     

Monetary policy,doubts and asset prices

Asset prices and the equity premium might reflect doubts and pessimism. Introducing these features in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model changes optimal policy in a substantial way. There are three main results: (i) asset-price movements improve the inflation-output trade-off so that average output can rise without much inflation costs; (ii) a “paternalistic” policymaker – maximizing the expected utility of the consumers under the true probability distribution – chooses a more accommodating policy towards productivity shocks and inflates the equity premium; (iii) a “benevolent” policymaker – maximizing the objective through which decisionmakers act in their ambiguous world – follows a policy of price stability.     

Debt valuation, renegotiation, and optimal dividend policy

The valuation of debt and equity, reorganization boundaries,and firm's optimal dividend policies are studied in a frameworkwhere we model strategic interactions between debt holders andequity holders in a game-theoretic setting which can accommodatevarying bargaining powers to the two claimants. Two formulationsof reorganization are presented: debt-equity swaps and strategicdebt service resulting from negotiated debt service reductions.We study the effects of bond covenants on payout policies anddistinguish liquidity-induced defaults from strategic defaults.We derive optimal equity issuance and payout policies. The debtcapacity of the firm and the optimal capital structure are characterized.     

Financial innovation, multinational banking, and monetary policy

The subject of the paper is the causal chain from financial innovation to multinational banking and further on to the conduct of monetary policy. The second section identifies the salient features of the present phase of financial innovation. The third section analyzes the consequences for the structure of international banking. The remaining three sections discuss the probable implications for, respectively, (1) the alleged disturbances from international capital flows (which, it is argued, are usually overestimated), (2) the effectiveness of monetary policy (where the principal consequence seems to be the competitive dismantling of discriminatory regulation), and (3) the viability of intermediate targets (which is impaired).     

Bank capital,interbank contagion,and bailout policy

This paper develops a theoretical framework in which asset linkages in a syndicated loan agreement can infect a healthy bank when its partner bank fails. We investigate how capital constraints affect the choice of the healthy bank to takeover or liquidate the exposure held jointly with the failing bank, and how the bank’s ex ante optimal capital holding and possibility of contagion are affected by anticipation of bail-out policy, capital requirements and the joint exposure. We identify a range of factors that strengthen or weaken the possibility of contagion and bailout. Recapitalization with common stock rather than preferred equity injection dilutes existing shareholder interests and gives the bank a greater incentive to hold capital to cope with potential contagion. Increasing the minimum regulatory capital does not necessarily reduce contagion, while the requirement of holding conservation capital buffer could increase the bank’s resilience to avoid contagion.     

Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle

This paper analyzes the interaction of inflation with the tax code and its contribution to aggregate fluctuations. We find significant effects operating through the tax on realized nominal capital gains. A tax on nominal bond income magnifies these effects. Our innovation is to combine monetary policy shocks with non-indexed taxes in a model where the central bank implements policy using an interest rate rule. Monetary policy had important effects on the behavior of the business cycle before 1980 because policymakers did not exert effective control over inflation. Monetary policy reform around 1980 led to better control, and with more stable inflation, the effect of the interaction between monetary policy and the nominal capital gains tax has become negligible.