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1.
2.
A growth model based on a theoretical discussion of the impact of oil prices on developed countries is used to predict the impact of higher prices of energy on the growth of developed countries. The results suggest that the growth impact is small, that domestic price policies may have a large impact on oil imports, and that the investment of foreign assets accumulated by oil producers may make a significant contribution to the GNP of OECD.  相似文献   

3.
Successful latecomers have certain stylized facts: an inverse U‐shaped GDP and capital per capita growth rates, high growth rates during the catch‐up period, and rapid structural changes. This paper proposes a general equilibrium framework and documents a catch‐up cycle that successful latecomers are likely to experience. Technology adoption or imitation and the diminishing marginal return to capital are the two driving forces of the catch‐up cycle. Technical gap and speed/efficiency of technical catching‐up are two fundamental determinants for successful catching‐up. Market competition, a beneficial financial system for resource allocation and openness are essential factors associated with speed/efficiency of technical catching‐up and thus with successful catching‐up. This paper concludes by a case study of China and sheds light on the different policy choices in various stages of the catch‐up cycle.  相似文献   

4.
Increasingly, firms' activities consist of information generating and processing activities, and information costs tend to dominate production costs. This indicates the necessity for explicitly incorporating private bureaucracies in economic modelling, if we want to understand economic development. Porat and Rubin's concept of the ‘secondary information sector’, which accounts for non-marketed information services produced in-house, is an attempt to account for and analyse intra-firm information activities at an industry and economy-wide level. The present study extends their work by embedding the sector in a simple computable general equilibrium model, using Japan in 1980 as an illustrative case study. Scenarios modelling changes in sectoral exports and domestic demand are conducted. Advantages and disadvantages of the secondary information sector concept are highlighted and areas for further research are indicated.  相似文献   

5.
In 1994 the state of Michigan implemented one of the most comprehensive school finance reforms undertaken to date in any of the states. Understanding the effects of the reform is thus of value in informing other potential reform initiatives. In addition, the reform and associated changes in the economic environment provide an opportunity to assess whether a simple general equilibrium model can be of value in framing the study of such reform initiatives. In this paper, we present and use such a model to derive predictions about the effects of the reform on housing prices and neighborhood demographic compositions. Broadly, our analysis implies that the effects of the reform and changes in the economic environment are likely to have been reflected primarily in housing prices and only modestly on neighborhood demographics. We find that evidence for the Detroit metropolitan area from the decade encompassing the reform is largely consistent with the predictions of the model.  相似文献   

6.
Summary. In this paper, I develop an applied general equilibrium environment with peer group effects. The application I consider is schooling. The framework used here is general equilibrium with clubs. I establish the existence of equilibrium for the economy with a finite number of school types. This result is then extended to the case where the set of school types is a continuum. The two welfare theorems are shown to hold for both economies. To compute the equilibrium, I construct a Negishi mapping from the set of weights on individual type's utility to the set of transfers that support the corresponding Pareto allocations as competitive equilibria with transfers. Because this mapping is a correspondence, a version of Scarf's algorithm is used to find a competitive equilibrium. Received: June 9, 1999; revised version: March 13, 2000  相似文献   

7.
ABSTRACT

This study assesses and compares the potential economic impacts of different investment plans dedicated to filling infrastructure gaps in Peru. Using a national database at the firm level, we start by estimating empirically the positive externalities of Peruvian infrastructure, such as energy, telecommunications, and transportation facilities, on the output of private activities. In the second step, these estimates are introduced in a dynamic computable general equilibrium model used to conduct counterfactual simulations of various investment plans in infrastructure over a 15-year period. These simulations show first to what extent scaling-up infrastructure could be a worthwhile strategy to achieve economic growth in Peru; however, they also show that these benefits depend on the choice of funding schemes related to such public spending.  相似文献   

8.
The Duffie and Kan (1966) model, which can be considered as the most general affine term structure formulation, was originally specified in terms of risk-adjusted stochastic processes for its state variables. The goal of the present paper is to derive a Duffie and Kan (1966) model specification under the physical probability measure that is compatible with the formulation given by the authors under the equivalent martingale (money market account) measure. For that purpose, the Duffie and Kan (1966) model will be fitted into a general equilibrium monetary framework. The resulting analytical solution for the vector of factor risk premiums enables the econometric estimation of the model parameters using a time-series or a panel-data approach, and nests, as special cases, several other specifications already proposed in the literature.Received: November 2002, Accepted: February 2004, JEL Classification: E43, G11, G12Financial support by FCTs research grant PRAXISXXI/BD/5712/95 is gratefully acknowledged.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

A two-factors, two-goods, three-countries general equilibrium model is developed to assess the effects of a Free Trade Area (FTA) on pollution emissions. It also makes it possible to compare the effects of a discriminating commercial policy with alternative–non discriminating–policies, such as full trade liberalization or non-discriminating protection. A theoretical model is first developed in order to take into account country-differences in factor endowment, environmental regulation, pollution abatement technology, marginal disutilities of pollution, as well as terms of trade effects. This model is subsequently calibrated and computed in accordance with empirical evidence. The main conclusion shows that the move from protection to FTA reduces world pollution emissions. A second result indicates that, in case of full trade liberalization, world pollution is further reduced.  相似文献   

10.
A computable general equilibrium model is used to project the effects of tourism on the industrial and regional structures of the Australian economy. The most striking conclusion is that Queensland, usually thought to be the most tourism-oriented of the Australian states, would be a net loser from an economy-wide expansion of tourism. As well as having a relatively large share of its GSP accounted for by tourist-oriented activities, Queensland is also relatively heavily dependent on agriculture and mining, traditional export sectors which are crowded out by the expansion of international tourism.  相似文献   

11.
Much of the lending in modern economies is secured by some form of collateral: residential and commercial mortgages and corporate bonds are familiar examples. This paper builds an extension of general equilibrium theory that incorporates durable goods, collateralized securities, and the possibility of default to argue that the reliance on collateral to secure loans and the particular collateral requirements chosen by the social planner or by the market have a profound impact on prices, allocations, market structure, and the efficiency of market outcomes. These findings provide insights into housing and mortgage markets, including the subprime mortgage market.  相似文献   

12.
Carbon leakages: a general equilibrium view   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
The effectiveness of unilateral action to curb carbon emissions has been dismissed because of possible “carbon leakages”, this referring to the rise of emissions in non-participating countries. This paper offers a general equilibrium (GE) exploration of the key mechanisms and factors underlying the size of carbon leakages. We developed a two-region, two-goods simplified GE framework, incorporating three types of fossil fuels (coal, oil and low-carbon energy), international trade and capital mobility. The model was designed to make tractable extensive multidimensional sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that the coal supply elasticity plays a critical role, while substitution elasticities between traded goods and international capital mobility appear relatively less influential. The shape of the production function also matters for the size of the leakages. Confirming the results obtained with large computable GE models, for a wide range of parameters’ values, carbon leakages appear to be small. Therefore, the argument that unilateral carbon abatement action taken by a large group of countries (such as the Annex 1 group) is flawed by significant carbon leakages is not supported by our sensitivity analysis. The likelihood of small leakages favours in fact the formation of a worldwide coalition to stabilise climate change.  相似文献   

13.
The objective of this analysis is to describe, interpret, and assess the socioeconomic changes that took place in Poland during 1989 to 1997. This is a dynamic approach that considers the relationships that exist between successive phases of transformation and is characterized by both quantitative and qualitative analysis. The study is in three sections. The first section sets forth analytical tools and methods to study systemic transformation at large. It searches for the promising manner of a transition appraisal. The second section discusses division of the economy into sphere of regulation and real sphere. In turn, the third section includes a dynamic analysis of interrelationships between those spheres that are subject to changes in the course of transformation and, in various ways, shape the economic performance in Poland. Finally, this paper draws conclusions concerning the failures and successes of the economic transition.  相似文献   

14.
经济学教材在讨论一般均衡的时候,往往以两个人、两种生产要素、两种产品这种最简单的社会作为研究对象,它们通常只阐述了一般均衡的存在,但都没有说明这种最简单的社会一般均衡点的确定即以此作为研究对象。  相似文献   

15.
We document the main features of a database that has been constructed for use in an applied general equilibrium model. The model is designed to evaluate policies of the European Community (EC), including membership. The database includes each of the major members of the EC in the 1970's: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Denmark and Ireland. It also includes three further trading regions: the United States, Japan and a residual Rest of World. Four aspects of our database are documented. The first is the collection and use of “raw data” from a number of sources for 1975. The second aspect is the generation of a multi-year database, with 1975 serving as a “reference year” for temporal updates to more recent years. The third aspect is the application of the database to the calibration of a “generic” general-equilibrium trade model. The final aspect is the use of the database to study the historical accession of the United Kingdom to the EC.  相似文献   

16.
This paper analyzes the welfare effects of unemployment insurance reforms in a general equilibrium incomplete market model. In particular, it decomposes the total welfare effect for each individual into different factors. I consider a model where the consumers face an uninsurable unemployment risk, can save in an interest-bearing asset, and are subject to a borrowing constraint. The labor market is modeled using a Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides style search and matching model. The decomposition exercises reveal how each factor contributes to the heterogeneity of welfare effects among different consumers.  相似文献   

17.
This paper uses a general equilibrium simulation model of residential land use to study the long-run effects of transportation changes in a closed city. The effects considered here include the aggregate benefits from and income distributional impact of the changes, in addition to the induced alterations in the physical characteristics of the city and in the location and modal choice of different income groups. The paper breaks new ground in its treatment of modal choice in a location theory model. An interesting point brought out in the simulations is the welfare-interdependence of different groups resulting from their spatial interaction.  相似文献   

18.
This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non-Ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the Euro area. The model takes into account distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption, while expenditures are broken down into purchases of goods and services, compensation of public employees and transfers to households. A newly computed quarterly data set of fiscal variables is used. Our results point to the prevalence of mild Keynesian effects of public expenditures. In particular, although innovations in fiscal policy variables tend to be rather persistent, government purchases of goods and services and compensations for public employees have small and short-lived expansionary effects on private consumption, while innovations in transfers to households show a slightly more sizeable and lasting effect. The effects are more significant on the revenue side: decreases in labor income and consumption tax rates have sizeable effects on consumption and output, while a reduction in capital income tax favors investment and output in the medium run. Finally our estimates suggest that fiscal policy variables contribute little to the cyclical variability of the main macro variables.  相似文献   

19.
We present a multi-sector CGE model featuring forward looking investiment and savings behavior within an intertemporal optimization framework. Thus, the model captures several of the intertemporal effects of commercial policy that have been stressed by recent literature on current account adjustment. We argue that pursuing a simulation approach in addressing these issues is warranted by certain limitations and ambiguities of the analytical literature. In addition to presenting the details of the model structure, the paper addresses calibration issues relating to intertemporal parameters. The model is calibrated to a microconsistent data set for the Austrian economy. Finally, the paper features an application of the model to a simple tariff liberalization scenario.  相似文献   

20.
This paper introduces time-inconsistent preferences in a multicommodity general equilibrium framework with incomplete markets. The standard concept of competitive equilibrium is extended in order to allow for changes in intertemporal preferences. Depending on whether or not agents recognize that their intertemporal preferences change, agents are called sophisticated or naïve. This paper presents competitive equilibrium notions for economies with naïve agents and economies with sophisticated agents and provides assumptions under which both types of equilibria exist. Surprisingly, the set of naïve equilibria in societies populated by time-consistent households is not allocationally equivalent to the set of competitive equilibria. For sophisticated equilibria, the equivalence holds. Time-inconsistency also raises conceptual issues about the appropriate concept of efficiency. Choices have to be made concerning the incorporation of future preferences and the appropriate instruments to create Pareto improvements. For both naïve and sophisticated societies, we present four possible efficiency concepts. Suitable conditions are specified for which both naïve and sophisticated equilibria satisfy appropriate efficiency concepts.  相似文献   

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