欧洲经济一体化的贸易效应对中欧贸易的影响探析

本文将Michaely指数纳入引力模型,并建立面板协整和面板误差修正模型研究欧洲经济一体化对中欧贸易的长期和短期影响机制。结果显示,欧洲经济一体化促使欧盟的经济小国调整自身生产和贸易结构以适应欧盟的生产贸易结构,欧盟经济大国对华贸易则保持相对的独立性。从长期看贸易转移效应是影响中欧双边贸易流量的最主要因素,而贸易创造效应、中欧双方的经济规模以及汇率因素也对贸易流量有重要影响;短期在贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应共同作用下,中国对欧盟的贸易顺差有扩大趋势。     

中国—东盟关税同盟区的贸易效应分析

东盟的未来取决于和中国经济一体化的程度,这是一个不争的事实。本文通过一般均衡分析模型、贸易创造和贸易转移模型、竞争效应模型、规模经济效应模型对中国东盟关税同盟区的贸易效应进行了前瞻性的分析和探索,旨在为加深中国东盟经济一体化进程提供理论上的支持。     

关税同盟静态效应研究

本文通过对关税同盟之静态效应——贸易转移进行图形分析，指出关税同盟给成员国带来的不是绝对的福利净损失或净收益，而是分为贸易创造与贸易转移两种影响。笔者认为贸易创造会带来福利绝对增加，而贸易转移在不同的情形下结果是不同的。     

RCEP的贸易和福利效应量化评估及对策研究——基于全球价值链区域化视角

基于全球价值链视角考察RCEP贸易的福利效应，发现贸易创造效应使得RCEP区域内的成员国增加出口值，对各成员国贸易具有正向影响。基于全球价值链区域化视角，分析了RCEP对成员国贸易影响的理论机制，进而研究了RCEP成员国的贸易发展现状并进行实证分析。根据研究结论，提出了向生产者驱动价值链方向转移、实现国内市场为导向推进产业升级、推进加工贸易向中国中西部地区转移、充分发挥本土优势完善国内产业链等对策建议。     

中国-东盟自贸区农产品贸易效应的实证研究

基于引力模型构建FTA贸易效应的事后评价方法,分析中国-东盟自贸区实施对我国农产品进口贸易的影响,定量分解贸易创造和贸易转移效应。研究表明:在传统引力模型中添加国家和年度双向固定效应,模型的有效性和经济学解释更趋合理,可以将这一模型推广应用于其他FTA的事后研究;从农产品总体来看,CAFTA对双边农产品贸易的推动作用明显,增长主要来自贸易创造,区域内贸易并没有以贸易转移为代价来实现增长;CAFTA主要体现为贸易创造意味着贸易开放的贸易获益明显,但限于产业调整的滞后会减弱贸易得益。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区下中国的静态贸易效应——基于引力模型的实证分析

本文介绍了双边贸易和贸易效应引力模型的研究进展,指出本文的创新之处。然后,通过建立两个引力模型进行实证研究得出结论。中国—东盟自由贸易区下中国的静态贸易效应中贸易转移效应远远大于贸易创造效应,而且贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应之间的差额逐年增长。最后,本文对此做出了解释,并建议未来的研究内容可以集中分析某一特定产业的贸易效应。     

广西与东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析

广西作为中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的桥头堡,在该贸易区内的经济贸易中发挥着重要的作用,同时充分利用该贸易区对广西区域经济的发展有着重要的作用。文章通过研究分析认为,广西在与CAFTA各成员国贸易的贸易效用中,贸易创造效应是贸易效应的主要效应,并且贸易创造效应在今后对广西地区经济发展的影响在很长一段时间内会有进一步深化和扩大的潜力,而贸易转移对广西区域经济的发展效应不大。     

中国对非洲直接投资与贸易的关系研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

文章从理论上回顾了对外直接投资的贸易效应,以非洲33个国家为样本,运用2002～2006年的数据,建立了中国对非洲直接投资与贸易之间关系的面板数据(Panel Data)模型,并进行了实证分析.研究发现,我国对非洲国家直接投资与贸易存在着互补效应;我国对非洲直接投资尚处于起步阶段,进一步拓展非洲市场有利于创造中非合作双赢局面.     

CAFTA下中国纺织品服装贸易效应的实证研究

本文以纺织品服装贸易为例,运用引力模型对中国—东盟自由贸易区下中国的贸易效应进行了实证分析,发现CAFTA的建立并未给中国对东盟的纺织品服装贸易带来创造效应,反而使得双边贸易减少;另外,本文还证明了区外贸易转移效应的存在。通过测算,CAFTA的建立使得中国纺织品服装贸易的福利效应为负,2010年福利损失达1.05亿美元。     

中国—东盟自由贸易区中国进口的贸易效应研究———基于巴拉萨模型

运用修正的巴拉萨模型分析中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)中国进口贸易的贸易创造和贸易转移.运用最小二乘法进行估计,结果显示CAFTA下中国进口贸易存在贸易创造效应而不存在贸易转移效应.     

The potential of African trade integration – Panel data evidence for the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite

ABSTRACT

The COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTA, formed in 2011, is supposed to be a milestone towards Africa's continental trade integration. This study analyzes the impact of regional integration among the Tripartite countries on their bilateral imports before that date to evaluate the latest integration efforts. We estimate an extended gravity model on a large panel of 51 African countries using yearly observations from 1995 to 2010. We proxy existing formal trade barriers by sample average tariff data on imports from the world as well as indicator variables for the membership in regional FTAs. We consider different estimation techniques and discuss distinct sets of fixed effects. The PPML regression results indicate that remaining tariffs are significantly negatively correlated with imports throughout the preferred multiplicative models. An FTA status does not show a clear-cut import enhancing effect. In the specifications that control for country-year effects, the EAC coefficient is positively correlated with imports, and the COMESA and SADC FTA membership show a positive relation to imports within some reduced-sample robustness checks.     

国际贸易争端解决机制的选择及有效性:理论与中国抉择

国际贸易争端解决机制主要有双边谈判、诸边一体化以及多边WTO化解机制,相关国内外文献较少涉及这三种机制之间的选择和优劣比较。本文用一个博弈的理论框架,从国家及贸易产品市场类型差异的角度分析了不同解决机制下单国的福利以及世界的总福利状况。结果发现,对于具有市场势力的大国来说,参与国越少的机制对其越有利,而对于没有市场势力的小国则是参与国越多的机制对其越有利,同时多国参与的机制也更有利于世界的总福利。因此,中国在选择贸易争端解决机制时,必须根据争端商品的市场竞争情况及价格影响和控制能力进行合理抉择;而从我国大多数出口商品的市场特点看,越多国家参与的机制可能更加有利。     

Financial Integration and Economic Growth in the COMESA and SADC Regions

Abstract

This study used panel data methods to examine the relationship between financial integration and economic growth in the COMESA and SADC regions. Using Foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio flows as a share of GDP, Chinn-Ito index of financial openness and debt flows as measures of financial integration, the study found that the relationship between financial integration and growth is largely insignificant in the combined sample of COMESA and SADC regions. However, the relationship changes when the two regions are separated. Whereas two of the indicators of financial integration are significant in the COMESA region, only one indicator of financial integration is significant in the SADC region implying that financial integration is more important in the COMESA region than in the SADC region. The results support the growth retarding theories of financial globalization and the convergence hypothesis in the COMESA region while the neoclassical trade theories find strong support in the SADC region. These results imply, first, that financial integration has different growth effects for different regional groupings and thus integration policies should not be universally applied. Second, these results imply that further enhancement of trade integration policies offer more promising outcomes for economic growth in the SADC region than financial integration policies while the converse is true for the COMESA region.     

On necessarily welfare-enhancing free trade areas

The well-known Kemp-Vanek-Ohyama-Wan proposition establishes that if two or more countries form a customs union (CU) by freezing their net external trade vector through a common external tariff and eliminating internal trade barriers, the union as a whole and the rest of the world cannot be worse off than before. Owing to the fact that a Free Trade Area (whose member countries impose country specific external tariff vectors) does not equalize marginal rates of substitution across its member countries (in contrast to a CU), the literature has been unable to provide a parallel demonstration regarding welfare improving Free Trade Areas (FTAs). The present paper eliminates this gap. In extending the result to the case with intermediate inputs, the paper also sheds new light on the rules of origin required to support such necessarily welfare enhancing FTAs. We show here that provided no trade deflection is permitted, all that is required by way of rules of origin is that the goods produced within the union - whether final or intermediate - be allowed to be traded freely. The proportion of domestic value added in final goods does not enter as a criterion in the rules of origin.     

Interacting factor endowments and trade costs: A multi-country, multi-good approach to trade theory

We provide a synthetic analysis of the different ways in which countries participate in the world economy. Classic trade questions are reconsidered by generalizing a factor-proportions model to multiple countries, multiple goods or multi-stage production, and country-specific trade costs. Each country's production specialization, trade and welfare is determined by the interaction between its relative endowment and its trade costs. We consider the effects of allowing one good to ‘fragment’ into component and assembly production. The volume of trade and welfare levels are higher with fragmentation for most countries, although for many countries these variables fall with fragmentation.     

中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利核算与分配问题研究

现代贸易方式不仅导致贸易利益在全球价值链上进行分配,还带来了贸易隐含污染排放在全球贸易网络中的分布。两国之间的贸易利益分配除了表现为贸易经济福利的分配,还表现为贸易隐含碳福利的分配。本文将贸易增加值分解法结合MRIO模型对2000—2014年中美双边工业品贸易增加值所隐含的碳福利分配及影响机制展开深入分析。研究结果表明:(1)在中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利分配中,碳福利逆差在中国,碳福利顺差在美国;(2)中美工业品贸易碳福利级差经历了“先扩大,后收窄”的过程,美国次贷危机之后双边碳福利不平衡状况重新呈现扩大趋势;(3)中国碳排放强度下降、价值链地位提升以及对美进口规模扩大都有助于改善碳福利逆差的局面,但美国对中国不断扩大的中间品和最终品需求以及双边复杂的技术关联结构仍是中国碳福利逆差的主导因素;(4)全球价值链的深化可能将导致对出口国加征关税会通过降低进口消费侧排放的方式恶化加征国的贸易隐含碳福利。本文研究的时间范围同时覆盖中国加入WTO以及美国次贷危机两个重要节点,这对于重新审视中美经贸关系新格局下双边贸易隐含碳福利分配构建了一个新的分析视角,为中美未来贸易谈判以及全球碳排放责任认定提供了一个新的解读方向。     

Currency Unions in Africa: Is the Trade Effect Substantial Enough to Justify their Formation?

Using estimates that currency unions double trade, we quantify the welfare effects of forming currency unions for the African regional economic communities and for the African Union as a whole. The potential increase in trade is shown to be small, and much less than that resulting from the adoption of the euro. Allowing for increased African trade does not overturn the negative assessment of African currency unions, due to asymmetries in countries’ terms‐of‐trade shocks and their degree of fiscal discipline.     

自由贸易及跨界污染背景下的国际环境政策协调

文章构建了一个考虑跨界污染损害的福利函数,推导出自由贸易背景下某国的最优污染税,并与世界福利最大化时的最优污染税进行比较,以说明国家间环境政策协调的必要性。文章考虑了四种情况,分析结果表明,只有在该国为小国且污染不跨界时不需要国际协调;当该国为大国或者污染跨界时,单个国家的独立行为通常不会产生合意的世界福利水平,此时需要国际协调以实现世界福利最大化。大国的污染政策具有贸易条件效应,因而出口国有设定过高污染税的激励,而进口国则会设定过低的污染税,双方都寻求转变贸易条件以有利于本方。而污染跨界时单个国家通常会有"搭便车"的激励,此时会实施较为宽松的环境政策。     

中非贸易发展现状分析

中非贸易经过半个世纪的发展,近年以40%左右的增速呈现快速上升的趋势。同时,中国与非洲的贸易占各自对外贸易总额低、中国与各个非洲国家和地区的贸易水平不均衡、进出口结构单一的等问题也不容忽视。通过从世界贸易组织发布的《国际贸易统计年鉴(2009)》和国家统计网得到的权威数据数据,从总体贸易水平、进出口结构、贸易集中度等方面对中非贸易进行分析,揭示了中非贸易的现状及发展趋势,并找出与中国贸易往来最密切的非洲国家,可作为后续研究的重点关注对象。     

CAFTA早期收获产品的贸易效应评估

文章基于1999～2006年中国和东盟五国早期收获产品(EHP)贸易流量数据,应用贸易比重指数和行业贸易引力模型,评估中国和东盟五国早期收获产品的贸易效应。结果表明,CAFTA对成员国的EHP区内出口具有贸易扩大效应;同时对东盟五国之间和区外国家与成员国的EHP进出口存在贸易转移效应。在CAFTA今后的建设中,成员国应该采取措施,在促进区内贸易扩大的同时,减少对区外的贸易转移,以获得更大的贸易创造。