Analysis and Forecast of the State of Environmental Protection in Russia

The main purpose of the present study is to analyse the emission dynamics of atmospheric and water pollutants in Russia and cost of their removal in the 1980s and early 1990s, and to forecast them by means of a Dynamic Input–Output Model according to different scenarios of future economic development till 1998. Main results of the work are:– methodological principles have been elaborated for singling out the environmental protection sector within the national economy;– a method has been offered for including the ecological block into a Dynamic Input–Output Model of the Russian economy;– a method of data preparation has been elaborated for the ecological block of the above-named model, the data base which characterizes the ecological situation in Russia has been formed and analysed;– calculations for 1994–1998 have been executed for forecasting the economic and ecological development of Russia using the above-mentioned model and the results obtained have been analysed. The results showed that if the existing tendencies towards low environmental protection capital costs remain the same, then the negative environmental impact will increase. In order to implement ecological programs and international agreements, to increase the proportion of removed pollutants, it is necessary to increase substantially expenditures on purifying water and air resources. The proportion of environmental protection investments in the total amount of the national economy capital costs should increase by up to 12–40% according to different scenarios of the economic development and different purposes of the environmental protection policy.     

Energy price-induced and exogenous technological change: Assessing the economic and environmental outcomes

In this paper, we distinguish between factor/output substitution and shifts in the production technology frontier. Our model includes the by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions where the function requires the simultaneous expansion of good outputs and reductions in emissions. We estimate a directional output distance function for 80 countries over the period 1971–2000 to measure the exogenous and oil price-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial oil price-induced technological progress at the world level when long-term oil prices are rising, although the growth rate is more volatile in developed countries than in developing countries. The results also show that developed countries experience higher exogenous technological progress in comparison with developing countries, and the gap between the two has increased during the period of our study.     

跨学科视角下智慧城市住户行为节能综合研究框架设计

住宅建筑节能减排是我国实现碳达峰和碳中和目标的重要领域之一。以用能行为作为切入点,基于跨学科视角对智慧城市住户行为节能劝导设计的相关问题进行了探讨,在此基础上进一步延伸至节能减排政策措施的科学合理制定以及两者之间的互动影响,梳理了智慧城市住户行为节能总体研究思路,设计了相应综合研究框架,并对应用该框架所面临的主要难点进行了深入讨论。研究成果可为未来智慧城市建设和住宅建筑节能减排可持续发展提供科学指导。     

A Test for Parameter Homogeneity in CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>Panel EKC Estimations

This paper casts doubt on empirical results based on panel estimations of an “inverted-U” relationship between per capita GDP and pollution. Using a new dataset for OECD countries on carbon dioxide emissions for the period 1960–1997, we find that the crucial assumption of homogeneity across countries is problematic. Decisively rejected are model specifications that feature even weaker homogeneity assumptions than are commonly used. Furthermore, our results challenge the existence of an overall Environmental Kuznets Curve for carbon dioxide emissions.     

The CO2 ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK: Performing a multi-region environmental input–output analysis with limited data

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input–output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner, Lenzen, Wiedmann and Barrett [Turner, K., Lenzen, M., Wiedmann, T., Barrett, J., 2007. Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — part 1: a technical note on combining input–output and ecological footprint analysis. Ecological Economics 62 (1), 37–44] in a recent issue of this journal in order to enumerate the CO2 pollution content of interregional trade flows between Scotland and the rest of the UK (RUK). We extend the analysis to account for direct emissions generation by households, as final consumers, and to a social accounting matrix (SAM), where a more comprehensive account of incomes and expenditures is possible. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, the interregional economy-environment IO and SAM framework for Scotland and RUK allows an illustrative analysis of some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the UK and the existence of a CO₂ ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and RUK.     

The carbon footprint of UK households 1990-2004: A socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multi-regional input-output model

This paper presents a socio-economically disaggregated framework for attributing CO₂ emissions to people's high level functional needs. Based around a quasi-multi-regional input-output (QMRIO) model, the study, in theory, takes into account all CO₂ emissions that arise from energy used in production of goods and services to satisfy UK household demand, whether the emissions occur in the UK or abroad. Results show that CO₂ emissions attributable to households were 15% above 1990 levels in 2004, and that although absolute decoupling occurred between household expenditure and CO₂ during the UK's switch from coal to gas in the early 1990s, since then only slight relative decoupling is evident. The proportion of CO₂ that arises outside UK borders in support of UK consumption is rising, and reducing these emissions is particularly problematic in a global trading system. Investigation into the carbon footprint of different segments of the UK population shows wide variation: the segment with the highest carbon footprint emits 64% more CO₂ than the segment with the lowest. Results show that recreation and leisure are responsible for over one quarter of CO₂ emissions in a typical UK household in 2004. We conclude that expanding lifestyle aspirations are significant factors in driving household CO₂ emissions, but the study also emphasizes that attention must be paid to the infrastructures and institutions that result in considerable amounts of CO₂ being locked up in basic household activities through which people meet their everyday needs for subsistence, protection, and communication with family and friends. The findings highlight the sheer scale of the challenge facing UK policy-makers, and suggest that policies should be targeted towards segments of society responsible for the highest carbon footprints.     

京津冀能源消费、碳排放与经济增长

运用《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》中的碳排放核算方法[1],测算2000—2011年京津冀二氧化碳排放量、排放强度、人均排放量和单位面积排放量,从变动趋势、消费结构、相关性和空间分布四个角度分析京津冀的能源消费、碳排放与经济增长。结果表明:京津冀能源消费量和碳排放量在12年间均呈增长趋势;碳排放强度均呈下降趋势;津冀的高排放主要是由以煤炭消费为主的能源结构和以高耗能工业为主的产业结构引起的。碳排放量与能源消费量和经济增长密切相关。在京津冀协同发展背景下,应大力调整产业结构,优化能源结构,建立碳汇合作机制。     

On the potential economic costs of cutting carbon dioxide emissions in Portugal

The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion activities on economic activity in Portugal. We find that energy consumption has a significant impact on macroeconomic activity. In fact, a 1 ton of oil equivalent permanent reduction in aggregate energy consumption reduces output in the long term by €6,340. More importantly, and since carbon dioxide emissions are linearly related to the amounts of fuel consumed, our results allow us to estimate the costs of reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. We estimate that a uniform standard for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion activities would lead to a marginal abatement cost of €95.74 per ton of carbon dioxide. This is a first rough estimate of the potential economic costs of policies designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. At this level one may conclude that uniform, across the board reductions in carbon emissions would have a clear negative effect on economic activity. Hence, at the aggregate level there is clear evidence for a trade-off between economic performance and a reduction in carbon emissions. This opens the door to the investigation of the scope for policy to minimize the costs of environmental policy and regulation.     

Beyond Kyoto, plan B: A climate policy master plan based on transparent metrics

Many scholars analyze the Kyoto–Copenhagen process, and offer corrective suggestions for identified flaws in the present design. Based on various proposals in the literature, this article adopts a global master-plan perspective, leaving executive architecture to sovereign participants. Transparent, flexible and fair top-down rules must synchronize the numerous bottom-up initiatives while addressing the diversity of national circumstances in the drastic transformation of the world's energy economies.Plan B refutes absolute emission reduction targets on old or speculative baselines. It criticizes global tax and permit trade instruments for being ineffective, inefficient and unfair when uniformly applied on a tremendous differentiated world. Plan B is built on three annually observed variables measuring percentage progress against rolling baselines (the variables' values in the previous year): the ratio of net climate tax revenues to GDP, the commercial energy intensity of GDP, and the carbon intensity of commercial energy use. The three variables together indicate countries' progress affecting emissions per person, a metric that must converge to lower bands when climate change is addressed seriously. Long-term scenarios of global convergence “funnels” serve as guidance to frame near-term actions rich and poor countries individually propose to take. The global regime is common for all countries, and is ranked by GDP per person to determine whether a nation is a donor or a beneficiary in a Global Climate Transfer Fund. Fund payments and drawing rights depend on that ranking but also on the performances of the countries in realizing committed progress. The transparent mechanisms of the design and of the fund persuasively invite countries to participate in a fair, self-enforcing agreement.     

Are CO2 Emission Levels Converging Among Industrial Countries?

Time paths of carbon dioxide emissions intwenty-one industrial countries are examinedfrom 1960–1997 to test for stochastic andconditional convergence. Both panel unit roottests and cross-section regressions areperformed. Overall, we find significantevidence that CO₂ emissions haveconverged.     

碳定价的政策工具选择争论:一个文献综述

二氧化碳等温室气体减排的政策工具选择问题是气候变化经济学中的一个重要研究领域。本文对该领域的最新研究进展作了全面的综述,试图梳理出在应对气候变化政策工具选择问题上各种不同主张的分歧所在,为中国碳减排的政策框架制定提供启示。通过对比分析关于传统的命令-控制工具和新型的基于市场的工具效率的几种不同观点,对处于政策工具选择争论核心的两种市场型工具——碳税和总量控制与交易制度在经济效率、政治可行性、执行成本、国际合作等方面各自的优劣性进行了重点评论,并讨论了更复杂的复合工具和双轨规制方法的特征。最后探讨了中国碳减排的政策工具选择问题,并指出了气候变化政策工具选择领域未来的研究重点。     

Nuclear energy: Tenfold expansion or phase-out?

Today, consensus is strengthening that mankind ought to prevent atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from more than doubling, since such a doubling is likely to cause a significant interference with the planet's climate system, to which it might prove difficult to adapt. Nuclear energy possesses large disadvantages, among which waste, proliferation and safety. An expansion of nuclear energy would encounter great social, institutional and economic barriers. Because the 21st century requires a radical transformation of global energy production and consumption towards nonfossil fuels, however, it is one of the noncarbon emitting alternatives that, at present, deserve enhanced research and development efforts. If nuclear energy were expanded 10-fold, it could contribute significantly to mitigating carbon emissions: a 10-fold expansion of nuclear energy could avoid about 15% of cumulative carbon emissions over the period 2000–2075. Nuclear energy, however, can be no panacea for the problem of global warming. Even with a massive expansion, nuclear energy should be complemented by drastic fossil fuel decarbonization measures or the development of renewable energy resources. Preferably, a combination of both should be targeted and complemented by far-reaching efficiency and savings regimes. Since the risks for humanity resulting from climate change are high, it would be unwise to currently abandon any noncarbon energy resource, including fission. A central thrust of continued research and development into nuclear energy ought to be the design of satisfactory nuclear waste depositories and of safe reactors that are less susceptible to proliferation risks.     

人工智能技术对碳排放的影响

随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革的深入推进,人工智能技术在应对气候变化方面扮演重要角色,并赋能“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的实现。利用2006—2019年中国内地省级面板数据,考察人工智能技术对碳排放的影响。研究发现：人工智能技术与碳排放之间呈倒U型关系,即当人工智能技术达到一定阈值后,其碳减排效应逐渐凸显;人工智能技术主要通过提高能源利用效率实现碳减排;在东部和西部地区,人工智能技术与碳排放之间存在显著倒U型关系,而在中部地区,人工智能技术对碳排放发挥持续促进作用。因此,在推进“双碳”目标过程中,需要以绿色低碳发展为目标开发人工智能技术,正确引导人工智能在碳减排领域的研发应用,针对不同区域实际制定差异化发展政策。     

Measurement and communication of greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. food consumption via carbon calculators

Food consumption may account for upwards of 15% of U.S. per capita greenhouse gas emissions. Online carbon calculators can help consumers prioritize among dietary behaviors to minimize personal “carbon footprints,” leveraging against emissions-intensive industry practices. We reviewed the fitness of selected carbon calculators for measuring and communicating indirect GHG emissions from food consumption. Calculators were evaluated based on the scope of user behaviors accounted for, data sources, transparency of methods, consistency with prior data and effectiveness of communication. We found food consumption was under-represented (25%) among general environmental impact calculators (n = 83). We identified eight carbon calculators that accounted for food consumption and included U.S. users among the target audience. Among these, meat and dairy consumption was appropriately highlighted as the primary diet-related contributor to emissions. Opportunities exist to improve upon these tools, including: expanding the scope of behaviors included under calculations; improving communication, in part by emphasizing the ecological and public health co-benefits of less emissions-intensive diets; and adopting more robust, transparent methodologies, particularly where calculators produce questionable emissions estimates. Further, all calculators could benefit from more comprehensive data on the U.S. food system. These advancements may better equip these tools for effectively guiding audiences toward ecologically responsible dietary choices.     

碳税的产业竞争力效应分析

如何在减排的同时更好地促进我国经济发展,已成为一个亟须解决的问题。碳税是减少碳排放的一种重要手段。碳税开征与否的一个主要争论在于:征收碳税是否会影响产业竞争力。在制定碳税政策时,需要考虑碳税实施后对产业竞争力产生影响的可能性及程度,采取相应补偿措施,实现节能减排的目的。     

Carbon Taxation, Fuel Substitution and Welfare in Australia

This paper examines the potential role for fuel substitution in electricity production in reducing carbon dioxide emissions over a ten-year time horizon. This is achieved by adding fuel substitution to output changes resulting from demand responses arising from a tax on carbon dioxide emissions. A time profile of adjustments is developed. The tax required for Australia to meet a 20 per cent reduction in emissions from 1993 levels is calculated and effects on inequality and social welfare are examined. The paper also examines the potential effect of a subsidy towards the use of low-emission fuels, financed from the carbon tax. A subsidy produces an improvement in emissions abatement and a lower tax required to reach the emissions target.     

中国电力行业碳排放配额分配——基于排放绩效

阐述了我国二氧化碳排放现状;预测了2015年、2020年我国二氧化碳的允许排放量,测定出电力行业的二氧化碳排放控制目标,并将其分解到不同容量等级的发电机组中;基于排放绩效方法,对2015年、2020年不同火电厂的碳排放配额进行了分配;最后给出在我国推广排放绩效机制所需的政策支持。研究结果表明,利用排放绩效机制能有效分配碳排放配额,控制二氧化碳排放量,是电力行业实施碳减排的一种有效机制。     

中国产业结构变动的碳排放效应分析——基于省际数据的实证研究

在碳排放模型框架内，利用测算的全国省际二氧化碳排放数据，通过设定多种模型形式考察了各种因素特别是产业结构变动对二氧化碳排放产生的影响。分析结果表明，产业结构的工业化进程直接加剧了二氧化碳的排放，产业结构变化是中国碳排放增长的重要驱动因素之一，其影响程度较大；同时，FDI环境效应的合力是负面的，贸易并非国际碳污染转移的主要渠道。     

Measuring US sectoral shocks in the world input–output network

I measure the importance of sectoral shocks in US aggregate output by using the World Input–Output Table (WIOT). The WIOT allows me to correct potential sub-graph bias in previous literature, caused by using only the US industrial production input–output table. I report results from three closely related models to show how sensitive the analyses are to different specifications. The estimates vary from 10% to 45%.     

Flows of Air Pollution,Ill Health and Welfare

We provide a theoretical framework for measuring welfare when pollution influences economic growth by impairing health and driving up defensive medical expenditures. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework in practice by applying it to data from Swedish valuation studies designed according to the accounting principles suggested here. We estimate that the negative health effects of nitrogen dioxide emissions amount to 0.6% of GDP in Sweden. We also show that a corrective Pigouvian tax should internalize the direct disutility, reduced labor productivity, and increased healthcare expenditures caused by pollution. According to our calculations, harmful health impacts alone (excluding ecosystem effects) justify 65% of the current Swedish tax on nitrogen dioxide.