Trends in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of passenger cars and buses

In this work we develop aggregate car ownership and bus fleet models in order to forecast and compare fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions from passenger cars and buses. Greece was selected as a case study, being a country fairly representative of lower-income Mediterranean and Eastern European countries and data were collected for the period 1970 to 2002. Percent adults in the population, per capita gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, car occupancy and bus kilometers were predictors included in the car ownership and bus fleet multiple regression models. A shift in the overall trend of both models around 1995 was explained as a slope change of per capita gross domestic product, possibly reflecting the impact of a boom of the Greek Stock Market along with a retirement program for older vehicles. Predictor variables were forecast via Box-Jenkins and the models were subsequently used to develop car ownership and bus fleet forecasts to the year 2010. We predict that the contribution of cars to total CO₂ emissions will rise to an astounding 95% of total CO₂ emissions from road passenger transport (excluding taxis and mopeds), an effect expected in other Mediterranean and Eastern European countries with socioeconomic characteristics similar to Greece. Suggestions for further research include developing regional car ownership forecasts in order to compare the dynamics of different regions within a country and looking into other land transportation means (such as mopeds, taxicabs and railway).     

Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member

This paper investigates the long run Granger causality relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in Turkey, controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor. The most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to Granger cause energy consumption, but the reverse is not true. The lack of a long run causal link between income and emissions may be implying that to reduce carbon emissions, Turkey does not have to forgo economic growth.     

北京市二氧化碳排放的驱动因素及减排路径

实现低碳发展对北京市意义重大。北京市近二十年来人口城镇化水平迅速提高,二三产业结构发生巨变,能源效率持续提高,因此运用STIRPAT模型对北京市（1995—2012年）二氧化碳排放的驱动因素进行分析。结果表明：城镇化、人口、产业结构、能源强度、人均GDP依次对北京市二氧化碳排放产生正向驱动作用。北京市低碳发展任重道远,需要在控制人口、转变经济发展方式、深度优化产业结构和能源结构等方面采取强有力的措施。     

Aggregation in macroeconomic models: an empirical input–output approach

The aggregation level of industries in the Danish macroeconomic model ADAM is examined using a new indicator of aggregation bias. The indicator is decomposed into contributions from the original industries, thereby clearly identifying the aggregation problems which caused the six industry groups of the older versions of ADAM to be disaggregated into the current 19 groups. An aggregation key minimizing the new bias indicator is found: from the microlevel of 64 industries, 18 ‘optimal’ industry groups are formed through ‘clustering’; these groups are very similar to the current ADAM groups. Altogether, the conclusions based on the new indicator closely resemble those reached through years of practical experience.     

The CO2 ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK: Performing a multi-region environmental input–output analysis with limited data

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input–output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner, Lenzen, Wiedmann and Barrett [Turner, K., Lenzen, M., Wiedmann, T., Barrett, J., 2007. Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — part 1: a technical note on combining input–output and ecological footprint analysis. Ecological Economics 62 (1), 37–44] in a recent issue of this journal in order to enumerate the CO2 pollution content of interregional trade flows between Scotland and the rest of the UK (RUK). We extend the analysis to account for direct emissions generation by households, as final consumers, and to a social accounting matrix (SAM), where a more comprehensive account of incomes and expenditures is possible. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, the interregional economy-environment IO and SAM framework for Scotland and RUK allows an illustrative analysis of some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the UK and the existence of a CO₂ ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and RUK.     

中国碳排放强度与影响因素的关联分析

碳排放强度与影响因素的关联程度,直接影响正确判断和把握碳排放强度的发展方向。通过分析碳排放强度及其影响因素的灰色关联度大小,来制定控制碳排放强度的短期和长期政策。文章基于美国橡树岭国家实验室二氧化碳信息分享中心(Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center,CDIAC)提供的我国2000-2011年全国碳排放量数据,核算出中国各年度的碳排放强度,通过采用灰色系统理论中灰色关联分析方法,分别从静态、动态的视角研究中国碳排放强度与技术进步、人口、经济增长、产业结构、能源价格以及城镇化率的关联关系,取得的研究结果表明,技术进步是影响我国碳排放强度的主要因素,其次是产业结构和人口;技术进步对碳排放强度的绝对关联关系和相对关联关系都是最大;能源价格影响碳排放强度的相对关联度较高,但是能源价格的绝对影响因素较低。因此中国应该在发展低碳经济建设的同时,综合考量各个影响因素,积极调整相关政策,科学实现我国碳减排目标。     

Dynamics of the UK natural gas industry: System dynamics modelling and long-term energy policy analysis

We present a dynamic model of the indigenous natural gas industry in the UK. The model has been built using a system dynamics approach. Using the model several scenarios have been analyzed. We found that management of the supply-side policy alone cannot substantially postpone the discovery, production and consumption peak. We also found that the dynamics of the main variables, namely, exploration, production and consumption, are sensitive to initial demand conditions. Postponing the onset of gas price increases can therefore be achieved more effectively through efforts to reduce demand growth. One might expect that a low taxation policy would encourage more exploration and production of gas and thereby stimulate higher consumption rates. Instead, there was no overall net effect on production and consumption in the long term. The depletion effect on cost of exploration acts as counterbalance to low taxation policy. Depletion effect causes cost and thus price to rise further which depress consumption rate. The advances in exploration and production technology can delay the peak of exploration, production and consumption. Technological improvements mean lower cost of exploration and production which pressure down the long-term pattern of price dynamics.     

Analysis and Forecast of the State of Environmental Protection in Russia

The main purpose of the present study is to analyse the emission dynamics of atmospheric and water pollutants in Russia and cost of their removal in the 1980s and early 1990s, and to forecast them by means of a Dynamic Input–Output Model according to different scenarios of future economic development till 1998. Main results of the work are:– methodological principles have been elaborated for singling out the environmental protection sector within the national economy;– a method has been offered for including the ecological block into a Dynamic Input–Output Model of the Russian economy;– a method of data preparation has been elaborated for the ecological block of the above-named model, the data base which characterizes the ecological situation in Russia has been formed and analysed;– calculations for 1994–1998 have been executed for forecasting the economic and ecological development of Russia using the above-mentioned model and the results obtained have been analysed. The results showed that if the existing tendencies towards low environmental protection capital costs remain the same, then the negative environmental impact will increase. In order to implement ecological programs and international agreements, to increase the proportion of removed pollutants, it is necessary to increase substantially expenditures on purifying water and air resources. The proportion of environmental protection investments in the total amount of the national economy capital costs should increase by up to 12–40% according to different scenarios of the economic development and different purposes of the environmental protection policy.     

Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China

This paper investigates the existence and direction of Granger causality between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in China, applying a multivariate model of economic growth, energy use, carbon emissions, capital and urban population. Empirical results for China over the period 1960-2007 suggest a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run. Evidence shows that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth. Therefore, the government of China can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth.     

Fairness in a tradeable-permit treaty for carbon emissions reductions in Europe and the former Soviet Union

This paper evaluates the distributional implications of alternative permit allocations in a tradeable permit regime for carbon emissions reductions (20% below baseline) in 2010 for a region consisting of Europe and the states of the former Soviet Union (FSU). Participation in such a regime is expected to hinge on the fairness of the distributional consequences. We find that initial permit allocations by populationand/or GDP are unlikely to induce participation by most countries of Eastern Europe and FSU because of the net costs involved. We identify a set of initial allocations that would at least compensate these countries. A fair treatment of the countries in Western Europe (WE) is here one which equalizes net costs perGDP. For a wide set of cost functions for carbon emission reductions, the cost gains that WE would reap from a tradeable permit system relative to unilateral reductions by WE as a group are found to be on the order of 85 percent. This would imply, among other things, a significant increase in WE'scapacity to make further emissions reductions.     

Monetary policy in the UK

The authors argue that the institutional dimension of the Bankof England monetary policy and the role the UK HM Treasury assumesin this framework are both firmly based on the New Consensusin Macroeconomics (NCM). This is also the theoretical frameworkupon which the inflation targeting element of monetary policyis firmly based. This paper discusses these aspects of UK monetarypolicy, and then assesses the policy that has been pursued since1997 (with some reference made to the period between 1992 and1997 when a version of the framework was introduced). The strategyhas been successful in terms of keeping UK inflation rates withinthe targets set by HM Treasury. However, a number of problematicissues are highlighted and discussed.     

MFA model to assess economic and environmental consequences of food production and consumption

Agri-food sector is a crucially important part of the society, because it is a major factor affecting public health and welfare and it also contributes – directly and indirectly – both to the environment and to the national gross product and employment. Improving sustainability of the agri-food sector implies production of nutritionally better food by using fewer inputs and by reducing environmental burden.In reducing environmental burden, it is essential to restrict the material throughput, to identify the hot spots and direct the measures to them. Improving performance of the food sector requires that the benefits and inputs be quantified in an unambiguous way and that the inputs are estimated for the whole production chain. A comprehensive view of the whole system is necessary.Here, the material flow approach (MFA) has been used to describe the Finnish food flux. The quantitative numerical data have been derived from the farm models' data base, and the data have been adjusted so as to comply with the production and consumption statistics of Finland. Using the compiled data an extended input–output model has been constructed. The model allows for the evaluation of some of the economic and environmental consequences, when the structure of food production and the patterns of food consumption are changed. The consequences can be traced within agriculture, within the food sector as a whole, or at the level of the nation-wide economy. In combination with other information the model, thus, serves as a practical tool for planning.The paper at hand gives an overview of the data base and the basic calculation principles of the model. The usability of the model is demonstrated with results from modelling examples, in which the share of organic production or the share of vegetarian food in the average Finnish diet has been increased. The possibilities and restrictions of the approach as well as some of the needs for further development are discussed.The study is the first step in developing MFA methods to analyse and to monitor the material flows of the Finnish food flux. The results have been used also in compiling the Finnish physical input–output tables. The study, thus, contributes to the overall development of the materials flow accounting.     

Financial frictions and the ratio in UK manufacturing

This note concerns an asymptotic distribution result from the literature on nonlinear estimation with integrated variables. It points out a way of strengthening local asymptotic distribution results towards results that hold for the global minimizer of the criterion function.     

Domestic demand and global production in the Eurozone: A multi-regional input-output assessment of the global crisis

This paper studies the effects of domestic and foreign demand impulses in euro area economies following the Great Recession of 2008–2009 and the Eurozone crisis of 2011–2012. Using a global Input–Output framework we apply a set of metrics to assess spillover effects of international trade in intermediates triggered by the dynamics of final demand. Our findings suggest that while cross-country trade spillovers have played a crucial role during the Great Recession, they have had a moderate impact when compared with the role of domestic sources of final demand during the Eurozone crisis. Hence, a strategy of coordinated fiscal austerity cannot be sustained by empirical evidence.     

Measuring patterns of specialization using trade in value added: the case of manufacturing in Italy

This article aims to contribute to the long-standing debate on the ‘anomaly’ of Italy’s specialization in manufacturing by providing fresh analysis based on new data. It offers: 1) a comprehensive survey of Italian comparative advantages measured in value-added terms and their evolution over time; 2) an international comparison of these advantages with Italy’s main competitors. Results show that the country’s traditional comparative advantages are substantially confirmed, a genuine capacity of the Italian domestic production factors to maintain added value in production with comparative advantage can be observed and new trends in terms of specialization and competitors are also highlighted, showing the influence of the international fragmentation of production on trade and specialization.     

Adoption of digital repositories for CO2 emissions reduction: the case of Korea

This study aims to estimate the potential economic benefits, energy and CO₂ emissions reductions when using trusted third-party digital repository (TTPR) services in one individual bank, and within the banking industry in Korea. First, the cost, benefit and net benefit of using TTPR services in the banking industry are estimated. Second, the net induced output effect is estimated. Third, based on an environmentally extended input–output analysis, CO₂ emissions reduction was estimated as 1924.32 tons in 2009 and the energy consumption reduction as 640.70 TOE. Fourth, the total economic benefit, which is the sum of the net induced output effect and economic value of CO₂ emissions reductions, is approximately $11.04 million. The findings demonstrate that energy consumption and CO₂ emissions reductions are meaningful enough to result in significant economic benefits. Therefore, the Korean government should promote the use of TTPR services in the entire industry.