Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase

Subjective survival scaling factors are often estimated from one observation of life expectancy and treated as constant to any target age. Using new survey data on subjective survival probabilities, we estimate a model incorporating cohort- and target age-varying beliefs in scaling factors. Both cohort age and target age matter: respondents are pessimistic about overall life expectancy but optimistic about survival at advanced ages, and older respondents are more optimistic than younger. We propose a new theoretical model incorporating cohort- and target age-varying beliefs and illustrate their effects on the perceived value of annuities and on retirement phase consumption plans.     

Do Overconfident Workers Cooperate Less? The Relationship Between Overconfidence and Cooperation in Team Production

The tendency to underestimate others' relative performance compared with one's own is widespread among individuals in all work environments. We examine the relationship between, and the driving forces behind, individual overconfidence and voluntary cooperation in team production. Our experimental data suggest an indirect and gender‐specific link: overconfident men hold more optimistic beliefs about coworkers' cooperativeness than men who lack confidence and are accordingly significantly more cooperative, whereas overconfidence, beliefs, and cooperativeness are not correlated in women. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of heterogeneous beliefs and asset overvaluation

I analyze a model in which different agents have different non-rational expectations about the future price and cash flows of a risky asset. The beliefs in the society evolve according to a very general class of evolution functions that are monotone; that is if one type has increased its share in the population then all types with higher profit should also have increased their shares. I show that the price of the risky asset converges to the risk-neutral fundamental price even though all agents in the economy are risk-averse. The risky asset thus becomes overvalued as compared to the equilibrium with rational expectations. The overvaluation is a result of the evolution of beliefs and does not rely on such asymmetric assumptions as short-sale constraints or optimistic bias.     

How money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs affect asset prices

We develop a dynamic asset pricing model with two investors with money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs about some aspects of the economy. The model is tractable and delivers closed forms for all equilibrium quantities. The study shows that money illusion leads the nominal shock risk to generate spillover effects on the real side of the economy and affects all equilibrium quantities, even without inflation disagreement. We find that bond yields increase, but the stock price decreases, as money illusion increases. Bond yield and stock price volatilities increase with fundamental disagreement, while the latter decreases with inflation disagreement. We also discover that the stock risk premium is inverse-U shaped as inflation disagreement increases. Moreover, we find that the optimistic investor holds positions in real bonds and stocks, and shorts the nominal bond to hedge against the risk of market changes, which is in line with the pessimistic investor’s beliefs.     

关于高职学生作文的一点思考

作文不仅综合反映了学生的知识水平和听说读写的能力状况,而且全面反映他们的观察力、联想力、思维力等智力因素及习惯、信念、情感等非智力因素。但多数高职学生在心理上对作文产生抵触,作文教学现状也不容乐观,写作训练收效甚微,学生的写作能力不堪一提。本文从学生作文现状、作文心理等方面进行了简要分析,并就如何提高学生的作文能力进行了一点思考。     

WHY EUROPE? A CRITIQUE OF INSTITUTIONALIST AND CULTURALIST ECONOMICS

Abstract Economists have recently started to discuss the roles of institutions and cultural beliefs in explaining the performance of civilizations. This paper investigates two views, ‘institutionalist economics’ and ‘culturalist economics’, with regard to the question of why Europe rose economically a few centuries ago, while other regions of the world lagged behind. These two views share a common platform raised on two pillars. First, both regard institutions/beliefs as extra‐economic – as primordial entities that ultimately stand independent of economic performance. Second, both regard economic performance as fully determined by institutions/beliefs – i.e. normative causality in the sense that institutions/beliefs determine performance. Douglass North's (2005) analysis of economic performance, for example, is based on both pillars. Concerning the primordial pillar, he attributes ‘the mystery’ of the rise of Europe to primordial beliefs, viz. ‘Christian dogma’ and English ‘individualism’. Concerning the normative pillar, he presumes that such beliefs have almost one‐to‐one correspondence with economic performance. This paper, though, maintains that the two pillars (primordial analysis and normative causality) are rather fragile: Advocates of the first pillar fail to recognize that institutions/beliefs are endogenous. Advocates of the second pillar fail to recognize that institutions/beliefs can give rise to diverse economic performances.     

Managerial Collective Cognitions: An Examination of Similarities and Differences of Cultural Orientations

abstract    Using the context of market orientation, we examine how an exemplary business's market orientation culture is reflected in managers' mental models, evaluate how mental models and perceived behaviours differ across hierarchical levels and functions, and compare the cognitive values and beliefs or the cognitive aspects of market orientation culture with behavioural aspects. Results from a rich, multi-method, case study suggest that while managers in the business share core beliefs regarding the customer dimension of market orientation, their beliefs regarding competitors, technology and inter-functional coordination dimensions vary widely across the levels and functions of the business. We found differences in terms of both the integration between the four dimensions of market orientation and the depth of knowledge within the dimensions. Our findings reveal that customer rather than competitor beliefs are the most important commonly shared beliefs in successful companies, leading us to encourage cognitive researchers to move beyond competitor analysis when examining managerial cognition. Another implication for future research is that a strong market orientation implies common core beliefs regarding customer dimensions but does not imply that all beliefs will be or should be shared. From the methodological standpoint, we find that cognitive mapping techniques provide rich insights into a business's market orientation culture that are not gained from behavioural methods alone.     

New public management and organisational commitment in the public sector: testing a mediation model

This paper focuses on the attitudes of learning professionals towards New Public Management (NPM). In a survey of the UK further education sector (n = 433), NPM beliefs were found to be positively associated with both affective and normative organisational commitment. However, as expected, NPM beliefs were not found to be related to continuance organisational commitment. The results also show that although perceived organisational support mediates the relationship between NPM beliefs and affective organisational comment, it is only a partial mediator of the relationship between NPM beliefs and normative organisational commitment. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings, and potential directions for future research, are discussed.     

Markets with heterogeneous beliefs: A necessary and sufficient condition for a trader to vanish

What does it take to survive in the market? Previous literature has proposed sufficient conditions for a trader to vanish, which depend on pairwise comparisons of traders’ discounted beliefs. We propose a novel condition that focuses on the ratio of traders’ discounted beliefs and (approximate) equilibrium prices. Unlike existing conditions, ours is both necessary and sufficient for a trader to vanish and delivers the exact rate at which vanishing traders lose their consumption shares. As an application, we analyze the performance of two intuitive behavioral strategies: the “Follow the Leader Strategy” that prescribes mimicking the beliefs of the most successful trader, and the “Follow the Market Strategy” that prescribes to use beliefs which coincide with the state price density. Further, we show that the relative performance of vanishing traders cannot be studied in isolation. Our analysis highlights an intuitive point obscured by the existing conditions: trading in financial markets is qualitatively different from bilateral trading.     

EXPLORING THE NEED FOR A SHARED COGNITIVE MAP

This article reports on an experiment that was undertaken to elicit the shared perceptions of a group of individuals in relation to a particular organizational domain. These shared perceptions were termed collective beliefs, and were to be modelled in the form of a causal cognitive map. An initial conceptual framework was presented in which it was posited that groups of individuals who work closely together share a set of common beliefs which enable them to function successfully as a group. These shared beliefs are an integral part of the group's cultural identity. Collective beliefs were defined as those beliefs which are a function of the group, encompassing more than those beliefs that are shared by the individuals within the group. Following the experiment it was proposed that it is not necessary for members of a group to have a complete set of shared beliefs in order to function as a decision-making group. In the new model, collective cognitions are described as merely transitory phenomena, changing in response to circumstances. The reforming of such phenomena over time results in the formation of shared belief systems. This framework was supported by the literature.     

Manipulation of voting schemes with restricted beliefs

In this paper we define manipulation with restricted beliefs as the possibility for some voter to have an insincere preference ordering that dominates the sincere one within the given individual beliefs over other agents’ preferences. We then show that all non-dictatorial voting schemes are manipulable in this sense, up to a given threshold.     

Multiple motives behind single acts of co-operation

To understand co-operation in social dilemmas, we need to allow for individual variation along several motives and beliefs instead of declaring that co-operativeness is merely self-interested or is merely a consequence of one's culture or the situation. This paper describes three beliefs and eight motives for co-operation or non-co-operation based on research on social dilemmas from a number of disciplines. It also proposes a framework that describes how beliefs and various motives interact with a given situation leading to a specific behaviour.     

Acceptance of peer/upward performance appraisal systems: Role of work context factors and beliefs about managers' development capability

This article provides insight into acceptance of peer/upward feedback systems, and also furnishes some implications for HR practice when implementing these systems. Participants' beliefs that ratees can develop their skills following feedback were positively related to attitudes toward the appraisal system. Perceived context variables such as development resource availability, social support, and time demands were related to these development capability beliefs, and to attitudes. Importance of the appraisal dimensions moderated the influence of the development capability beliefs on attitudes, and also contributed to attitudes. Beliefs that raters had adequate opportunity to observe relevant behavior were also related to attitudes. © 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Bargaining over an uncertain outcome:¶the role of beliefs

We study the Nash bargaining solution of a problem in which two agents bargain over an uncertain outcome. Under the assumptions of risk neutrality and of constant absolute risk aversion, we study the way that the solution varies, ex ante, when we vary the beliefs of one agent. Changing an agent's beliefs in a way that makes them “more distant” from the other agent's beliefs makes the second agent better off. Received: 10 May 2001 / Accepted: 22 August 2001     

Cultural Discrimination: The Reasonable Accommodation of Religion in the Workplace

Reasonable accommodation of religious practices continues to be a problem in the workplace. Recent Supreme Court decisions have enabled employers to exclude employees from the decision-making process of what constitutes a reasonable accommodation of their religious beliefs through the de minimis standard. In this article it is argued that, in most cases, the reason employers have been allowed to discriminate against these employees is the contentious nature of minority religious beliefs with the mainstream religious culture. Because judges view discrimination based on religious beliefs as distinct from the other reasons for discriminatory practices, such as race, sex, or national origin, it appears unlikely that adherents to minority faiths will face any abatement of discrimination in the workplace.     

the lloyd's phoenix

Will insurance markets in general, and Lloyd's in particular, recover from the low rates and natural disasters that brought them so low in the late 1980s? Martin Mitchell, manager of the Lloyd's planning department, takes an optimistic view.     

The effects of psychological capital and risk tolerance on service workers’ internal motivation for firm performance and entrepreneurship

This study investigates how psychological capital and risk tolerance can inspire service workers to develop internal motivation and entrepreneurial confidence. Data were gathered from a survey of 255 service workers in the metropolitan area of Seoul, South Korea. The results showed that service workers’ psychological capital consisted of two main constructs: hopeful self-efficacy and optimistic resilience. The results indicated that hopeful self-efficacy had no significant effect on service workers’ internal motivation, while the optimistic resilience had a positive effect which in turn positively impacted entrepreneurial confidence. On the other hand, risk tolerance was found not to affect service workers’ internal motivation. These results imply that optimistic service workers, with recuperative powers, tended to be proactive in their work and have more confidence when establishing new ventures. They also suggest that service firms can improve organizational performance by promoting worker optimism and resilience. This study provides practical insights into why service firms should pay attention to worker optimism and resilience to improve firm performance over the long run, not only for the firms but for the national economy as a whole.     

A dual approach to ambiguity aversion

In the present paper, the assumption of monotonicity of Anscombe and Aumann (1963) is replaced by an assumption of monotonicity with respect to first-order stochastic dominance. This yields a representation result where ambiguous distributions of objective beliefs are first aggregated into “equivalent unambiguous beliefs” and then risk preferences are used to compute the utility of these equivalent unambiguous beliefs. Such an approach makes it possible to disentangle uncertainty aversion, related to the processing of information, from risk aversion, related to the evaluation of the equivalent unambiguous beliefs. An application to portfolio choice shows the tractability of the framework and its intuitive appeal.     

Retraining midcareer managers: Career history and self-efficacy beliefs

Many corporations are retraining midcareer managers in order to combat employee obsolescence and boost corporate competitiveness. The receptivity of midcareer managers to retraining is mixed. Those managers who believe they can master new work-related learning (in the terms of this study, those who have positive self-efficacy in learning beliefs) are most amenable to retraining. The objective of the present study was to determine the antecedents of positive self-efficacy beliefs for midcareer managers facing retraining. We discovered that managers' advancement potential and the relevance of their previous training had a profound impact on their self-efficacy beliefs. These findings have important practical implications. The seeds of receptivity to retraining are planted throughout managers' careers. Hence, retraining should not be viewed on a program-by-program basis, but rather should be understood in the broader context of corporate life and individual career history. To prepare for the inevitable corporate evolution and change demanded in a dynamic business environment, senior executives and human resource managers should be proactive in creating those conditions that facilitate the development of positive self-efficacy in learning beliefs.     

CEO optimism,CEO selection,compensation, and corporate investment decision: The case of CEOs who were rehired as CEOs by another firms after turnover

What happens to CEOs after they are let go by their firm? This study is designed to investigate CEOs who are rehired as CEOs by another firms after turnover. CEOs defined as “moderately optimistic” and those who left voluntarily from their departing firms, are younger, have better prior performance, and work in larger firms are found to have a greater likelihood of being rehired as a CEO by another employer. Moreover, new-hire firms with higher growth opportunity and higher R&D expenditures are found to be significantly more willing to hire overconfident CEOs. Furthermore, more-optimistic CEOs are found to receive higher total compensation from their new-hire firms than CEOs who are less optimistic. Finally, overconfident CEOs working in firms with high growth opportunity and higher R&D show a significantly greater tendency toward increasing firm investment.