War,Marriage Markets,and the Sex Ratio at Birth

In belligerent countries, male‐to‐female sex ratios at birth increased during and shortly after the two world wars. These rises occurred amidst dramatically changed marriage‐market conditions caused by war‐related declines in adult sex ratios, and still defy explanation. Based on county‐level census data for the German state of Bavaria in the years just before and immediately after World War II, we explore the reduced‐form relationship between changes in marriage‐market tightness (the adult sex ratio) and changes in the offspring sex ratio, and we discuss potential mechanisms that might link the two. Our results suggest that war‐induced shortfalls of men significantly increased the percentage of boys among newborns.     

恩格斯婚姻家庭观

恩格斯的著作《家庭、私有制和国家的起源》,对于婚姻家庭的研究,有着重要的意义。在婚姻家庭的历史发展上,恩格斯认为婚姻家庭是历史发展的,具有连续性;在婚姻家庭的道德层面上,恩格斯认为人们在研究婚姻家庭时,要一分为二的看待不同时期、社会、地区的婚姻爱情观念和制度,认为婚姻家庭应该是合乎道德的,同时对资产阶级婚姻家庭进行了批判;在婚姻家庭的未来发展上,他对共产主义社会婚姻家庭也提出了自己的设想,形成了自己的婚姻家庭观。     

内生家庭谈判力与婚姻匹配

本文从内生家庭谈判力模型分析了中国当前婚姻匹配中梯度匹配与结构性失衡并存现象。本文认为,由于在养育孩子投入中自然的性别差异,择偶倾向上出现性别差异,女性存在向上匹配倾向,而男性则存在向下匹配倾向。当受教育程度性别差距缩小,尤其是高学历人群中男女性别比降低时,出现梯度匹配与高学历女性的匹配困难并存的现象。     

Will Markets Direct Investments Under the Kyoto Protocol? Lessons from the Activities Implemented Jointly Pilots

Under the Kyoto Protocol, countries can meet treaty obligations by investing in projects that reduce or sequester greenhouse gases elsewhere. Prior to ratification, treaty participants agreed to launch country-based pilot projects, referred to collectively as Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ), to test novel aspects of the project-related provisions. Relying on a ten-year history of projects, we investigate the determinants of AIJ investment. Our findings suggest that review-agency preferences related to national political objectives and possibly deeper cultural ties influenced project selection and limited the number of AIJ projects. Bilateral ties also appear to have affected investment decisions directly, possibly because of related transaction costs. The results suggest an investment process different from the assumptions that underlie well-known estimates of cost-savings related to the Protocol’s flexibility mechanisms. We conclude that if approaches developed under the AIJ programs to approve projects are retained, the scale of investment under Kyoto’s flexibility provisions and their cost-savings will be less than what is generally anticipated and the pattern of investment less driven by abatement costs.      

经济欠发达地区农村“空巢”家庭养老的思考

对农村出现大量“空巢”家庭的原因进行了分析,指出了目前我国农村“空巢”家庭养老面临的困境,提出了农村“空巢”家庭养老的思路：转变养老观念;发扬尊老爱幼的优良传统;逐步实现农村养老的社会化;通过土地流转筹集养老资金;加强农村社区引导,发挥社区为“空巢”老人提供日常生活照料和精神慰藉的作用;加强养老服务设施建设以及对“空巢”家庭的高龄老人提供不同的服务。     

股票、债券与长期投资

<正> 小弗雷得·施维得的《客户的游艇在哪里?》是一本讽刺华尔街的作品,其中的投资家仿佛卡通人物。在该书的第八章一——《投资——问题很多、答案很少》中,作者提出一个投资建议: 在股市繁荣期间,当每个人都争相购买普通股的时候,把你所有的普通股都卖掉,然后用所有收入购买保守的债券。你卖出的股票肯定还会涨,但别去理它——静静地等待萧条,它迟早会来临     

残疾人婚姻家庭研究和发展的现状分析

对国内外有关残疾人婚姻家庭的法律法规、政策纲领及相关调查进行了梳理。残疾人结婚年龄普遍较晚,有配偶比例远远低于非残疾人,婚后离婚率和丧偶率高于非残疾人。有残疾人的家庭,大多存在收入较低、子女素质不高等诸多问题,侵犯残疾人婚姻家庭权益的事件时有发生。由于残疾人存在身体或功能障碍,家庭是其主要活动场所,家庭成员的照料和支持对他们尤为重要。有关残疾人的法律法规亟需完善与发展。     

Efficient Intra-Household Allocations and Distribution Factors: Implications and Identification

This paper provides an exhaustive characterization of testability and identifiability issues in the collective framework in the absence of price variation; it thus provides a theoretical underpinning for a number of empirical works that have been developed recently. We first provide a simple and general test of the Pareto-efficiency hypothesis, which is consistent with all possible assumptions on the private or public nature of goods, all possible consumption externalities between household members, and all types of interdependent individual preferences and domestic production technology. The test is proved to be necessary and sufficient. We then provide conditions for the identification of the sharing rule and the Engel curves of individual household members for a variety of different observational schemes.     

个体家庭、网络家庭和亲属圈家庭分析——历史与现实相结合的视角

本文对个体家庭、网络家庭和亲属圈家庭的构成方式、相互关系和变动特征进行了探讨。根据本项研究,近代之前传统时期具有抚幼养老功能的个体家庭受到官方和民间重视和推崇;父母在世时兄弟分家被抑制,网络家庭成长空间被挤压;亲属圈家庭是个体家庭获取社会资源的基础和主要的求助对象。近代以来,特别是解放以后,个体家庭的抚幼养老功能被分解;多子家庭亲子分爨形成网络家庭占据主导地位,养老责任由子代单元家庭分担,“家内”养老被“家际”养老所取代;亲属圈家庭对个体家庭的维系作用降低。当代社会,现代法律制度为双系网络家庭的产生创造了制度环境,人口控制政策下独生子女家庭大幅度增加是其产生的生物基础,城市化则成为双系网络家庭发展的推动力量;亲属圈由于已婚女儿与娘家构成网络家庭而削弱,并在部分两代及以上均为独生子女的家庭中趋于消失。     

高新技术产业投资、沉淀成本与补偿制度创新

高新技术产业投资对我国国民经济发展具有重要的作用和潜在的扩张力,但由于没有充分利用高新技术产业投资,严重影响国民经济的整体发展.为此,本文从沉淀成本角度出发,使用一个动态的投资模型,探讨高新技术产业投资所面临的障碍以及提供刺激高新技术产业投资的基本原则,在于完善投资成本补偿机制:一方面,需要大力完善市场制度;另一方面,更需要大力完善非市场制度,同时,政府折旧和税收政策等也是不可替代的.     

儒家学说对传统婚育观念和家庭伦理关系影响探讨——兼论对儒学几个观念的理解和再释

讨论了在中国传统思想文化领域居于主导地位的儒家思想和学说对中国传统婚育观念和传统家庭伦理关系、妇女地位的影响,就儒家的“仁”与“礼”、“忠”与“孝”、“富”与“教”几种观念以及儒家提倡的和谐观与阴阳观发表了独到的见解和认识。     

货币政策、商业信用与科技创新投资

实证检验了商业信用对企业科技创新投资的影响与作用机制,以及在不同货币政策期的异同。研究发现：总体上,商业信用能够缓解创新融资约束,促进企业科技创新投资;在货币紧缩期,商业信用对创新融资约束有显著缓解作用,对创新投资的促进作用较之货币宽松期更为明显。进一步研究表明,国有企业能利用商业信用促进创新投资,且在货币紧缩期通过对商业信用的利用,缓解创新融资约束、促进创新投资;该现象在民营企业中不存在,可能与国有企业对商业信用有更强的获取及控制能力有关。研究成果丰富了商业信用的经济后果内涵,为解决企业创新融资问题提供了新思路。     

Testing the Efficient Markets Hypothesis with Futures Markets Data: Forecast Errors, Model Predictions and Live Cattle

At the forefront of empirical research into the examination of the efficiency of futures commodity markets, two fundamentally different testing techniques have been popularised – the 'forecast error' and 'model prediction' approaches. This paper assesses the relative strengths of these techniques by contrasting results obtained when both approaches are used to examine the efficiency of the Sydney live cattle futures market. While neither model provides evidence to suggest that this market is inefficient, it is clearly shown that the model prediction approach enjoys a number of distinct advantages over its rival. Indeed, the model prediction approach provides additional information that is important not only for those interested in testing the efficiency of futures markets, but is important for anyone interested in developing a greater understanding of the determination of prices and the behaviour of agents in futures markets.     

R&D Investments,Information and Strategy

This paper argues that firms can best realize the value of their investments in R&D by exploiting the associated information asymmetries. Attention is directed away from the physical results of R&D and towards the firm's ability, more generally, to earn rents from the private information emanating from its R&D. Four strategies may be used to exploit the information asymmetries from R&D: (1) publish the details of the innovation in return for legal protection; (2) keep the information inside the firm; (3) make the information selectively, informally available to others; and (4) disseminate the information as widely and rapidly as possible. To implement these strategies, resources may be allocated both to the commercial development of new technologies, and/or to related market opportunities (investing in other companies, assets and technologies). Of critical importance are the innovator's own skills and resources in effectively gathering, understanding, and commercially exploiting R&D-generated information asymmetries, both internally and in relation to other firms. This study should yield new insights to managers in designing strategies (and counter-strategies) to position themselves not only at the technological edge, but more fundamentally, at the 'information edge'.     

Marriage, BMI, and wages: a double selection approach

Obesity rates have been rising over the past decade. As more people become obese, the social stigma of obesity may be reduced. Marriage has typically been used as a positive signal to employers. If obese individuals possess other characteristics that are valued in the labour market they may no longer face a wage penalty for their physical appearance. This paper investigates the relationship between marital status, body mass index (BMI), and wages by estimating a double selection model that controls for selection into the labour and marriage markets using waves 14 and 16 (2004 and 2006) of the British Household Panel Survey. Results suggest that unobserved characteristics related to marriage and labour market participation are causing an upward bias on the BMI coefficients. The BMI coefficient is positive and significant for married men only in the double selection model. The findings provide evidence that unobserved characteristics related to success in the marriage and labour market may influence the relationship between BMI and wages.