我国农产品市场风险的成因、影响及对策研究

农产品市场风险是农产品生产经营者面临的主要风险。农业的弱质性、农产品供求的变化、小规模的农业生产方式、环节过多的流通渠道、国际农产品市场价格的影响等是我国农产品市场风险产生的主要原因。农产品价格的波动,不仅影响农业自身的发展,还影响农民收入及农民的消费行为。我国应建立政府、市场、企业、农民为多元主体的农产品市场风险管理模式。     

基于农民视角下的农产品市场交易价格风险分析

农产品价格是决定农民生产收益的主要因素。农产品市场风险主要表现为农产品市场价格的波动。本文试图从农民视角出发分析农产品市场价格风险的主要原因,并提出规避农产品市场价格风险的对策建议。     

基于农民视角下的农产品市场交易价格风险分析

农产品价格是决定农民生产收益的主要因素.农产品市场风险主要表现为农产品市场价格的波动.本文试图从农民视角出发分析农产品市场价格风险的主要原因,并提出规避农产品市场价格风险的对策建议.     

农业产业化经营中商品契约稳定性研究

通过对农产品市场波动性、农户特征和农产品商品契约履约率的决定等方面的分析，指出有关增加专用性投资、提高农户信誉、加强法律约束的建议都不能增加农业契约的履约率。在农业契约稳定中，关键是风险分担机制的设计。农户的联合和企业的保险作用应该是解决农业契约履约率过低的基本方向。     

农户禀赋、风险因素对农产品收入保险购买意愿的影响研究——基于南京市的问卷调查

2016—2022年中央一号文件连续七年指出探索并实施农产品收入保险。农产品收入保险具有同时保障产量风险和价格风险的特点,受到了国家的大力支持和推广,有望助力我国乡村振兴战略的实施。文章基于江苏省南京市的问卷调查研究,运用有序Logistic模型对农户农产品收入保险响应意愿进行了实证研究,结果表明：农户禀赋中的受教育程度、种植规模、信息资源对农产品收入保险的购买意愿有着显著正向影响,兼业情况对购买意愿有显著负向影响,自然风险和价格风险显著正向促进农产品收入保险的购买意愿。根据实证分析结果,从注重需求导向,发挥新型农业经营主体带动作用,加强宣传力度,加大政策支持等方面提出相应的对策建议。     

浅析农户面临的主要风险及其应对策略

分析了农户面临的主要风险：自然风险、社会风险和经济风险,并在分析目前农户对这些风险的主要应对措施的基础上,提出一些具有针对性的应对策略来更好的有效防范和化解农户面临的风险,主要包括：进一步完善风险防范体系,大力发展政策性农业保险;加强社会治安、严厉打击不法行为和大力发展农产品期货市场。     

农产品目标价格保险试点经验、问题及对策——基于3个试点地区的调查

市场风险已成为继自然风险后制约我国农业生产经营的主要因素之一,农产品目标价格保险则是分散市场风险的重要手段。基于对重庆永川、四川成都和江苏武进三个试点地区的调查,发现农产品目标价格保险试点地区在工作推进机制构建、保险品种和试点对象选择、保险金额分类确定、保费分担机制等方面积累了丰富经验,但仍存在新型农业经营主体认知度偏低、县域机构业务创新权限小、价格确定缺乏精准性、保险合同细节设计不精准、保费分担和补贴结构不合理等问题。应从加强政策宣传、完善保险制度框架、发挥示范效应、加强信息技术应用和健全风险分担机制等方面入手,复制和推广农产品目标价格保险试点的成功经验。     

"龙头"企业与农户的合约选择--基于风险和风险态度的解释

和现有文献基于交易成本理论解释"龙头"企业和农户之间的合约选择不同,本文把农业项目的风险分解为生产风险和市场风险,运用委托--代理理论分析了风险和风险态度对"龙头"企业和农户之间合约选择的影响.分析表明,在不存在机会主义行为或市场风险为零的情况下,"龙头"企业和不同农户之间合约的选择取决于双方对风险的态度和农业项目生产风险的大小.     

农业经济组织形式的选择和政府政策

农产品进入市场的途径有两条:一是单个农户或农民进入市场;二是农户以组织的形式进入市场.单个农户进入市场受到诸多因素的限制,要承担较大的市场风险.农业生产组织分为两类:一类为他组织形式;另一类为自组织形式.后者是农户自身为治理的主体、"利益共享、风险共担"的生产组织.自组织形式将是我国农业经济组织今后发展的主导方向.这是因为,自组织在诸多方面都存在着明显的优势.当然,组织本身也存在不可忽视与小农经营方式有关的缺陷,这要求农户+农户的自组织模式的发展需要政府作为外部的支持力量存在,这有别于此前农业经济组织的政府干预模式.     

抑制现货炒作背景下的农产品期货市场价格发现功能研究

价格发现功能是期货市场的重要功能之一。农产品期货市场价格发现功能的充分发挥,对形成正确的现货价格预期,优化农户的生产数量决策和农业生产的资源配置,减缓农产品现货市场的＂蛛网震荡＂,从而抑制投机、维护农户和消费者利益都具有重要意义。经验研究表明,我国农产品期货市场经过规范发展,其价格发现功能已初步显现,但尚未充分发挥。价格发现功能的进一步发挥,需要政府和市场参与者的共同努力。     

Identification of strategies to improve goat marketing in the lowlands of Ethiopia: a hedonic price analysis

This article aims at identifying factors that determine market prices of goats and analyse potential mechanisms by which smallholder goat producers could maximize their benefits. Data on 357 farm households and 2103 goat transactions were collected in three major goat markets in the lowlands of Ethiopia. Hedonic price models adjusted for heteroscedasticity were employed to analyse the observed price data. Model results showed the relative importance of different factors in determining goat prices. Animal attributes including age, sex, live weight, body condition and presence of horn as well as types of buyer and market outlet targeted and time of selling were found to be important. Particularly, goats marketed during festive periods where demand for meat increases (e.g. Ethiopian New Year) command higher prices. These results imply that interventions such as systematic selection schemes targeting traits demanded by the market, improved linkages to markets, easy access to market information systems and creating conducive environment including incentive mechanisms can enhance smallholder farmers’ and pastoralists’ ability to take advantage of seasonal and spatial price changes and become market responsive with effective marketing strategies. Such changes can be potent in improving the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and pastoralists.     

The effects of macroeconomic factors on South African agriculture

Significant research efforts have been devoted to understanding the effects of macroeconomic factors on the agriculture sector. Analysing the sources of volatility in the industry is critical for designing appropriate policies to stabilize agricultural markets, reduce poverty and increase economic growth. Agriculture is a competitive sector with prices that are more flexible than those in nonagricultural sectors. This article uses annual data over the 1957–2004 period and a vector error-correction model in investigating the dynamic effects of exchange rates, money supply and other macroeconomic variables on the agricultural sector in South Africa. Overall, real exchange rates, interest rates, inflation and money supply (M3) shocks have significant and persistent impacts on agricultural output, prices received by farmers and farm input prices. M3 and interest rate shocks tend to put agriculture in a cost-price squeeze. Agricultural price movements are a source of macroeconomic instability in the country. Real exchange rate shocks shift relative prices in favour of agriculture in the long-run, thereby, boosting farm incomes and accelerating poverty reduction in the country.     

我国粮食价格变动的经济效应分析

粮食价格变动的经济效应体现为对粮食产量、农民收入、物价的影响。从粮食市场价格形成的机制看,成本与资源禀赋决定粮价的长期走势,中期以市场自发调节为基础,政府干预为主导。本文通过对粮价与粮食产量、粮价与农民收入、粮价与物价之间的协整性和格兰杰因果关系检验,得出结论:粮食价格上涨能显著地刺激粮食增产、短期内激励农民增收,统计意义上粮食市场价格上涨不会引起物价上升,政府要继续利用粮食价格手段支持粮食增产与农民增收。今年粮食等主要农产品价格上涨不是引起通胀的主要原因,不能轻率地抑制农产品价格。     

间接广泛利用期货市场:农民增收的有效途径

期货交易中套期保值和价格发现两大经济功能的有效利用,是解决"三农"问题、规避农产品价格风险、确保农民增收的重要途径之一.然而我国农业生产自身存在的局限性,导致农民直接利用期货市场和参与期货交易的可行性不大;而间接利用期货市场开展套期保值交易则是农户的最佳选择.     

地方政府的道德风险与征地制度的重大缺陷

地方政府的道德风险在"三农"制度变迁中起着关键性作用.转型时期农民的贫困主要是制度性贫困.征地制度已经成为农民资产流失的最大渠道,它对农民的掠夺已经超过了计划经济时期实行的"剪刀差".地方政府道德风险造成征地制度的生态环境恶化.解决"三农"难题必须防范和减少地方政府的道德风险.要创新激励和约束机制,实现地方政府、中央政府和全国农民在制度变迁中的激励相容.现实的对策是采取有力措施,壮大农民工的力量,扩大农民的消费者主权.     

Heteroscedastic hedonic price model for cattle in the rural markets of central Ethiopia

This study employs a heteroscedastic hedonic price model to examine the factors that influence cattle prices in the rural markets of central Ethiopia. The empirical results show that season, market location, class of cattle, body size and age are very important determinants of the cattle price. The relative weight of the phenotypic characteristics of the animals is among the highest of all the factors considered. These preferences at the farmers’ and farmer traders’ levels are the ones that matter most in shaping the diversity of animals kept at farm level, and the diversity of cattle genetic resources is quite essential for generating or identifying the best suited breeds of cattle, given the livelihood objectives of the target community.     

UNDERSTANDING MEMBER CHARACTERISTICS AND COOPERATIVE PRICE EFFECTS: THE CASE OF THE ARGENTINEAN DAIRY SECTOR

Since the 1990s, Argentinean dairy‐processing cooperatives have lost considerable amounts of members and market share. We analyse their current role by investigating the characteristics of farmers who continue delivering to them and price differentials between cooperatives and investor‐oriented firms (IOFs). A probit regression model applied to 917 farmers suggests that cooperative farmers are more disadvantaged than farmers delivering to IOFs in terms of education, farm size and productive technology. Moreover, t‐tests applied to data representing 70 per cent of national volume indicate that farmers delivering to cooperatives are between 11 per cent and 29 per cent smaller than those delivering to IOFs, depending on province. A hierarchical multilevel regression model applied to 9,720 transactions among farmers and processors shows that, after controlling for quantity and quality, cooperatives pay lower (3.5%) but more stable prices than IOFs. In a context of rapid structural change, we observe a market in which larger farmers deliver to IOFs and smaller farmers deliver to cooperatives and conclude that, at the expense of paying lower prices, cooperatives may act as buyers of last resort for otherwise disadvantaged farmers.     

基于风险补偿的企业债券定价研究

在有效市场中,企业债券的超额收益是对其所面临的风险可能导致损失的补偿,企业债券的理论价格是表征资金时间价值的无风险收益率和风险溢价的函数。根据市场无风险收益率、违约风险溢价,以及流动性风险溢价所遵循的随机波动方程,并考虑债券的违约回收率,本文构建了基于风险补偿的企业债券理论价格模型,并对2006年第3季度至2010年第1季度中国债券市场中32只企业债券的实际价格和理论价格进行了实证检验。研究发现,绝大多数企业债券的实际价格与理论价格差异不大,但少数中长期债券的实际价格系统性地低于理论价格;公用事业类企业债券的价格对市场信息不够敏感;我国债券市场上存在较多的套利资金。最后从所做的研究中,得出了完善我国债券市场的一些启示。     

Risk in supply response: an econometric application

The impact of risk aversion on supply response is empirically estimated for selected field crops in California. As indicators of risk aversion the following surrogate variables are used: variance of past prices and yields, adjusted price to reflect the role of government support price over the market price and the dummy variables indicating price expectations. In general, the econometric estimates show a negative impact of risk aversion measured by the surrogate variables and this has implications for welfare gains resulting from price support policies aimed at stabilization.     

中国南方稻农干旱风险处理策略

干旱对中国农业生产的影响越来越严重。本文从微观的角度探讨了在面临干旱时农户所采用的各种应对策略,并对这些策略的有效性进行了一定的评估。本文发现,多数农户通过这些策略成功地应对了一般性的干旱,但一些贫困农户在此方面仍然面临着较大的困难。