The political economy of a productivist agriculture: New Zealand dairy discourses

The New Zealand dairy industry faces political and commercial pressure to improve its environmental performance on the one hand while maintaining economic efficiency and commercial competitiveness in a global marketplace on the other. The growing scale and intensity of dairy production have caused significant cumulative environmental impacts. The industry response to political pressures for improved environmental performance has involved a narrow focus on water quality and pasture management. It is consistent with an approach which seeks to maintain size and industrial leverage in the face of global trade competition. This paper explores the productivist constructions of environmental management by the New Zealand dairy industry in the context of global economic competition and notes an alternative response inspired by an ethic of sustainability. It suggests that despite global pressures of economic competition, it is possible to incorporate non-material values into farm management provided these are recognised and rewarded.     

Multicriteria risk analysis of commodity-specific dock investments at an inland waterway port

Abstract

Managing risks to critical infrastructure systems requires decision makers to account for impacts of disruptions that render these systems inoperable. This article evaluates dock-specific resource allocation strategies to improve port preparedness by integrating a dynamic risk-based interdependency model with weighted multicriteria decision analysis techniques. A weighted decision analysis technique allows for decision makers to balance widespread impacts due to cascading inoperability with certain industries that are important to the local economy. Further analysis of the relationship between inoperability and expected economic losses is explored per commodity flowing through the port, which allows an understanding of cascading impacts through interdependent industries. Uncertainty is accounted for through the use of probability distributions of total expected loss per industry that encompass the uncertainty of the length of disruption and severity of the impact that is mitigated by alternative strategies. A set of discrete allocations options of preparedness plans is analyzed in a study of the Port of Catoosa in Oklahoma along the Mississippi River Navigation System. The economic loss analysis showed that the integration of multicriteria decision analysis helps in prioritizing strategies according to several criteria such as gross domestic product (GDP) and decision maker risk aversion that are not typically addressed when strategies are prioritized according to the average interdependent economic losses alone.     

Case Study: Energy Industry Economic Impacts from Ohio River Transportation Disruption

Recent history is full of water transport disruption events that have had significant economic effects on the waterside industries. Such disruptions may be either natural or man-made disasters or planned outages on the river's lock and dam structures. To assess coal-based economic impacts for the Ohio River Basin, we developed a network flow model to represent waterside coal-fired power plants situated along the Ohio River, their respective coal supplying mines, and the various transportation modes that connect them. We show that significant transportation-centric insights can be derived by using only commonly available spreadsheet-based analysis tools, open-source information systems, and web-based geographic tools.     

成品油管道技术现状及发展趋势

文章对成品油的四种运输方式铁路、公路、水路（沿海及内陆）和管道运输的特点进行了对比分析。针对国外成品油管道输送方面的技术现状和发展趋势，结合我国成品油管道的技术现状，对我国成品油管道发展提出了建议，即今后我国成品油管道的发展一定要不断吸收国外成品油管道顺序输送的先进技术和经验，提高成品油管道的技术水平和管理水平，充分发挥成品油管道的运输优势，降低运输成本，建设全国规模的成品油管道系统，进一步提高我国成品油的市场竞争能力。     

市场获得、边界效应与经济集聚——基于“中心—外围”城市经济活动的考察

本研究利用我国54个城市1990—2010年的经济活动数据重点考察了市场获得对区域经济集聚发展的影响。结论发现随着市场获得的边界效应下降,要素(中间)品和最终消费品两个市场获得均具有促进区域集聚发展的作用,国内市场获得对中心城市集聚发展的贡献力在样本期具有下降趋势,而外围城市则反之。与其呼应的则是当前刘易斯拐点期和国际经济衰弱(波动)期外需市场获得空间增长乏力,这意味着工业生产性资源在空间上集聚配置的"地理界线"必然会由沿海边界线向内陆圈后移,"主外需,轻内需"局面向"内外需并重"转变将成为趋势。未来外向型的东部沿海(中心地区)集聚力相对下降,而内陆外围地区可吸收其扩散力;随着国内市场获得重要性的提升,内陆(或外围)地区将充分接受沿海地区"回波效应"带来的新增长力量,我国区域"中心—外围"发展格局有望走向渐进均衡化。     

开放环境下的中国经济地理重塑——“第一自然”的再发现与“第二自然”的再创造

针对当前中国地区差距较大的现实,本文从沿海—内陆开发开放联动的新视角出发,对各地区"第一自然"(先天条件)进行全新的"再发现",认为在中国扩大向西、向南开放的背景下,中西部内陆原本远离东部沿海的劣势地理区位可能转化为新的优势经济区位。应在此基础上对现有"第二自然"条件进行"再创造"(重新改造),加快发展沿海次级城市,培育内陆中心城市及经济圈以提升内陆的相对区域经济地位,并在承认地区发展客观差距的前提下更加注重地区间居民生活水平差距的缩小,逐步形成更加协调发展的中国经济地理新格局。     

Long-term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices

Crop yields are endogenous as long as economic agents adjust to permanent changes in expected prices. The literature, however, does not offer a definitive value of how much yield would change in response to sustained price changes. To fill the gap, we use available scientific findings and data to estimate yield elasticities that enable agricultural commodity and food policy analysis. Using a world market model with short- to long-run yield response, we show the impacts of sustained energy price shocks on global cereal supply and demand. The results highlight substantial differences in quantity and price effects depending on the yield elasticities. These results demonstrate the need to recognize yield response when assessing impacts of energy prices or biofuel production on food uses or, more generally, on food security in the face of income and population growth, evolving dietary patterns, climate change implications, or other long-run pressures.     

Innovativer Energiespeicher Bundeswasserstraßen

The present analysis provides a contribution to the question of how a system integration of large-scale energy storages can be implemented. It is to be investigated if and how federal waterways can be used for this purpose. Initially, a baseline study was carried out in which the federal waterways are systematically assessed with regard to their suitability for/as energy storage systems. Apart from the technical and the hydro mechanical implementation of the storage process, the advantages and disadvantages of the federal waterways in comparison to conventional pump storage stations play a significant role. A presentation and classification of the potentially available canal sections provides an overview of the suitable storage systems of the federal waterways. A specifically designed storage simulation on the basis of a sample application is used, in order to determine the capacity of the canal system for energy storage. Consequently, the simulation showed the theoretical capability of the federal waterways as energy storage systems, through their ability to balance the load and temporal fluctuations of the energy input. The simulation program Matlab was used on the basis of the synthetic load and delivery profiles. Finally, based on the example of the ships lock in Uelzen and the Scharnebeck boats lift, a simulation of the possible re-equipping options will be described, technically abstracted, economically analysed and combined with renewable energy facilities within a virtual power plant. The detailed formulation of further approaches and the calculation of possible application scenarios play a central role within this analysis.     

Development of a model to estimate the economic impacts of R&D output of public research institutes

This paper proposes a modeling framework to estimate the economic impacts of R&D output of public research institutes. The framework models the process of R&D output generating the economic impacts. The authors collect case data of market‐creation economic impacts originating from R&D output of the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japan. On the basis of the case studies, the process of R&D output generating economic impacts is modeled in the following four stages: (1) R&D output, (2) technology transfer, (3) commercialization, and (4) market impacts. The model describes these stages using six parameters. This paper presents the model and case studies, and discusses the application of the model.     

外部性与产业增长——来自中国省级面板数据的研究

本文利用我国29个省、市、自治区25个产业的面板数据研究了外部性对于地区产业增长的影响,结果发现:在全国样本范围内,专业化水平与产业增长之间存在着负向关系;竞争程度与地区产业增长之间存在着正向关系;多样化程度与产业增长之间存在着一种非线性关系,当多样化程度较低时,多样化不利于产业增长,而当多样化水平较高时,多样化则会促进产业增长。在分地区分产业的分析中,产业多样化水平对经济增长的作用在很大程度上取决于产业的性质(高度规模经济产业或低度规模经济产业)及产业的地理区位(沿海地区或内陆地区)。     

中国出口商品结构变化、产业结构优化升级与经济增长动态影响关系的实证研究——基于SVAR 模型

本文基于中国1985~2015 年的时间序列数据构建SVAR 模型,实证检验了出口商品结构变化、产业结构优化与经济增长之间的影响关系,并进行了脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。结果表明: 当期的出口商品结构变化对经济增长与产业结构优化对出口商品结构变化均产生显著的正影响;从跨期来看,产业结构优化和经济增长冲击主要来自于自身,出口商品结构变化对产业结构优化与产业结构优化对经济增长产生的正向冲击与影响贡献率均较小。     

Food scandals,media attention and habit persistence among desensitised meat consumers

Consumer reactions to food scandals and their resulting economic implication are well documented. However, studies have typically neglected the roles that consumption habits and media usage behaviours may play in explaining household’s response to food safety incidences. In this study we develop a model of heterogeneous media usage intensity, information impacts and decay over time to estimate household’s behavioural responses to the 2011 German Dioxin scandal. We are specifically interested in determining the degree of heterogeneity in household’s short-term adjustments demand patterns versus persisting long-term consumption habits of meat products (chicken and pork) directly affected by the incident. The empirical analysis employs detailed household-level retail scanner and media usage data collected by the GfK Consumer Scan panel for a total of 16,023 households over a period of 104 calendar weeks. Results of dynamic correlated random effect Tobit models indicate an important role of unobserved heterogeneity in explaining household responses during the food scandal. We find strong empirical evidence supporting our hypothesis that short-term marginal adjustments in demand and propensity to buy affected products triggered by the negative impact of household media exposure were over-compensated by habit persistence. The question of how consumption patterns evolve over time in the presence of food scandals is expected to be of interest for both policy makers and the food industry. The potential biases in the projection of economic impacts resulting from simplifying assumptions of household’s response patterns to a proliferating numbers of food safety incidences has implications for risk management and public policy.     

The two dimensions of policy impacts on economic cohesion: Concept and illustration for the CAP

Given the growing importance of cohesion policy within the European Union (EU) during the last two decades, public and scientific interest in the role of EU policies for regional disparities has risen continuously. Recent empirical studies on the impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on economic cohesion have been strikingly diverse in their principal findings. Whereas some studies suggest positive overall effects on economic cohesion, others stress exactly the opposite. One major reason for the ambiguous results is that a single agreed-upon measure of economic cohesion is lacking. We propose a concept that distinguishes between two dimensions of policy impacts on economic cohesion: (i) the redistributive impact at a defined period of time and (ii) the change of the redistributive impact over time. The first dimension addresses the question whether a policy makes the distribution of a target variable, e.g., income, more equal or unequal at one point of time. The second dimension covers the impact of the policy on the disparity of the same variable over time, i.e., the impact on convergence. An empirical illustration of the concept for 13 NUTS 1 regions in Germany over the period 1991–2009 reveals that the two policy impacts of the CAP are partly contradictory for the two dimensions. It is shown that the CAP fosters economic cohesion by reducing regional disparities in each individual year. With regard to redistributive impacts over time, we find that CAP transfers leave income convergence largely unaffected for society as a whole. Within the agricultural sector, it leads to a convergence of receipts per farm whereas it induces a divergence of farm receipts per hectare.     

经济危机对煤炭企业的影响

文章以经济危机对工业企业的影响为导向,以影响讨论应对方法,阐述了作为煤炭企业和煤炭企业从业者应该做到的几点。最后更是以较为细致的观点提出了管理办法、实施细则,为应对经济危机指明了一条可行之路。     

The system-wide impact of healthy eating: Assessing emissions and economic impacts at the regional level

Encouraging consumers to shift their diets towards a lower meat/lower calorie alternative has been the focus of food and health policies across the world. The economic impacts of such changes on regions have been less widely examined, but are likely to be significant, especially where agricultural and food production activities are important for the region. In this study we use a multi-sectoral modelling framework to examine the environmental and economic impacts of such a dietary change, and illustrate this using a detailed model for Scotland. We find that if household food and drink consumption follows healthy eating guidelines, it would reduce both Scotland’s “footprint” and “territorial” emissions, and yet may be associated with positive economic impacts, generating a “double dividend” for both the environment and the economy. The economic impact however depends critically upon how households use the income previously spent on higher meat/higher calorie diets. Furthermore, the likely (but not modelled) benefits to health suggest the potential for a “triple dividend”.     

Is faster better? Quantifying the relationship between broadband speed and economic growth

In this paper, I aim to quantify the relationship between higher broadband speeds (10 Mbps versus 25 Mbps) and the growth rates in important economic outcomes in U.S. counties including jobs, personal income, and labor earnings. Doing so exposes the potential for severe selection bias in studies of broadband's economic impact, which is addressed in this study using Coarsened Exact Matching. Once balanced, the data reveal no economic payoff from the 15 Mbps speed difference between the years 2013 and 2015 (when data is available). I also revisit an early and widely-cited study on broadband's effect on employment to evaluate the possible impacts of selection bias, and conclude that the positive benefits of broadband reported in that particular study are likely spurious. The selection bias problem may infect other studies on the economic impacts of broadband Internet services. Future research on broadband's economic impact should explicitly address selection bias.     

Broadband adoption and availability: Impacts on rural employment during COVID-19

Amidst COVID-19-related stay-at-home orders, the economy moved largely online and broadband internet became more important than ever. This paper explores the relationship between broadband and employment rates during April and May 2020 in rural U.S. counties. We use two broadband dimensions: infrastructure availability rates and household adoption rates. We use a two-stage least squares approach to address endogeneity and control for socioeconomic, demographic, and pandemic-related factors. Results show broadband availability and wired broadband adoption both had significant, positive impacts on the employment rate. Our findings suggest both broadband adoption and availability may be associated with economic benefits in rural America.     

Using System Dynamics to assess the impact of RFID technology on retail operations

The application of item-level radio frequency identification (RFID) technology in retail supply chains creates cost savings and promises large potential benefits from revenue growth. However, the economic assessment of the impact on improved store operations, labor utilization, and increased sales is still not fully explored. We propose to use System Dynamics as a structural modeling and simulation approach to integrate conventional return on investment evaluations. Building on previous research about RFID technology in retail supply chains, we developed a model based on the case exploration of a leading Italian apparel retailer. Simulations show that RFID implementations are profitable whenever they contribute to increase sales, especially when a fashion retailer is focused on clerk-assisted sales strategies. Sales growth results from the dynamic and integrated impacts of RFID technology on better inventory control, faster inventory turnover, and longer time available for store personnel to assist consumers as an effect of more efficient backroom operations.     

Viewpoint: Climate impacts on agriculture: Searching for keys under the streetlight

This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as for purchased intermediate inputs. Largely overlooked is the impact of climate change on the rate of total factor productivity growth and the potential for more rapid depreciation of the underlying knowledge capital underpinning this key driver of agricultural output growth. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare. Of particular significance is the finding that humans in the humid tropics are likely more vulnerable to heat stress than are many of the well-adapted crops, such as rice. By omitting the impact of heat stress on humans, most studies of climate impacts greatly understate the welfare losses in the world’s poorest economies.     

Understanding fertilizer adoption and effectiveness on maize in Zambia

Increased fertilizer use will likely be crucial for raising and sustaining farm productivity in Africa, but adoption may be limited by ineffectiveness under certain conditions. This article quantifies the impacts of soil characteristics on maize response to fertilizer in Zambia using a nationally representative sample of 1453 fields, combining economic, farm management and soil analysis data. Depending on soil regimes, average maize yield response estimates range from insignificant (0) to 7 maize kg per fertilizer kg. For the majority of farmers, the estimated average value cost ratio is between 1 and 2, meaning fertilizer use would be fiscally rational, barring uncertainty and transfer costs. Since transfer costs exist and outcomes are uncertain, however, many farmers may sensibly pause before deciding whether to adopt fertilizer. This suggests shifting the emphasis of chronically low fertilizer use in Africa away from explanations of “market failure” toward greater emphasis on improving fertilizer efficacy.