金融加速器理论述评

金融加速器理论的提出为理论界认识经济周期及其波动提供了新视角,它揭示了存在摩擦的金融市场对经济周期的放大作用,在我国企业主要依赖间接融资的情况下,也为我国制定信贷政策和规范信息市场提供了指导。本文将介绍金融加速器理论并简述其在我国理论界的研究现状。     

有关金融经济周期的论述与分析

金融经济周期是指经济的周期性的持续性的变化,是由金融体系的传导作用形成的.从微观上来看,基础是金融加速器,信用波动和资产价格波动是金融经济基础的重要关注点.金融经济周期的特点是发生频率低但时间长.不同国家的金融经济周期有不同的表现特征,国家的货币政策和经济体系是重要影响因素.本文介绍了金融经济周期的生成原理、表现特征,概括了金融经济周期模型在我国的运用.     

金融加速器理论述评

一、金融加速器概念与原理 理解经济总量波动的原因是宏观经济学的一个中心目标,不同宏观经济流派对引起经济总量波动的原因及其传导机制有不同的解释。真实经济周期模型强调技术冲击和政府购买冲击等实际变量对经济总量的影响;而货币经济周期模型强调名义变量     

金融经济周期理论研究动态

近年来金融市场因素(金融冲击、金融摩擦、金融中介)对整体经济的影响越来越大。基于发达经济的研究结论指出,金融冲击对经济总体波动的贡献已经超过50%,超越实际冲击成为最重要的经济波动诱因。在此背景下,宏观经济周期理论正发生一场类似于20世纪30年代凯恩斯主义发展所经历的重大变革,这是继实际经济周期理论之后最引人注目的新发展,被称之为金融经济周期理论。这一理论从亚洲金融危机开始,在2008年全球危机之后获得重大突破。该理论将金融中介部门(银行)作为一个独立部门嵌入到动态随机一般均衡框架中,将金融市场因素纳入到整体经济框架进行研究。近年来,该方法发展迅速,应用广泛,且继续深入研究的空间巨大,意义深远。     

金融要素对经济周期波动的影响:一个文献综述

实证和理论研究均表明,金融要素会放大随机冲击对经济的影响,即金融对经济波动的加速器作用。在此背景下,本文首先梳理金融加速器理论产生的原因及其传导机制;其次,引入金融机构(银行),从企业资产负债表效应和银行资产负债表效应两个角度阐述金融要素对经济波动的放大作用;再次,从多元投资组合和国际借贷两个方面揭示金融加速器对国际经济周期的传播和扩大作用,并指出金融加速器在我国的存在性;最后,总结了金融要素对经济周期波动的影响,并提出未来可能的研究方向。     

真实经济周期理论对大萧条的重新解释

2008—2009年发生的金融危机再次引起了人们对大萧条这一最特殊经济史事件的关注。真实经济周期理论凭借动态一般均衡分析框架和真实再现世界的数值模拟技术,对大萧条的起因和缓慢复苏给出了具有颠覆性的解释:以技术冲击为主的外部冲击引起了1929年大的衰退,胡佛的企业联合政策将一次大的衰退转化为大萧条,而1934年到1939年美国经济缓慢复苏的根源是试图将经济拉出泥潭的罗斯福新政。针对我国学术界在该方面研究的不足,本文在对大萧条争论全面回顾的基础上,对真实经济周期理论对大萧条的重新解释进行了全面介绍和系统分析。文章的最后还对政府干预是否有益于经济危机的解决进行了反思。     

西方增长型经济周期理论与中国的通货紧缩

1 997年以来 ,中国经济出现了一般价格水平持续下降的通货紧缩 ,但经济仍保持了较高的增长速度。文章在对西方关于经济周期与经济衰退关系进行理论与实证分析的基础上 ,对中国宏观经济进行实证分析的结果表明 :中国的通货紧缩表现为经济增长率的持续走低及实际增长率小于趋势增长率 ,中国的通货紧缩是一种增长型的经济衰退。     

金融经济周期理论研究

本文通过简单介绍国际上社会通用的金融经济周期理论的发展进程,分析研究金融经济周期理论的主要内容,并对金融经济周期理论的理论和现实意义进行评价,为政府部门经济工作和金融公司规划提供借鉴.     

金融经济周期理论研究

本文通过简单介绍国际上社会通用的金融经济周期理论的发展进程,分析研究金融经济周期理论的主要内容,并对金融经济周期理论的理论和现实意义进行评价,为政府部门经济工作和金融公司规划提供借鉴.     

中国金融韧性、叠加效应及其与经济周期的交互分析

本文运用机器学习的决策树算法对中国金融韧性指数的构成指标进行筛选,使用熵权法构建2011年1月至2020年6月中国金融韧性指数,基于离散小波分析方法测度了金融韧性周期并研究其叠加效应,采用BK分解方法进行不同频域下金融韧性周期与经济周期的交互分析.本文得出三点结论:第一,金融韧性的主周期表现为28 ～ 32个月的高频短周期,它由不同频率的波动叠加构成,主要包括金融韧性三个评价维度的叠加效应,高频短周期的波动主要由防御抵抗能力和适应恢复能力波动导致,中频中周期主要由转换学习能力波动导致.第二,在金融韧性周期与经济周期的交互分析中,金融韧性周期对经济周期波动产生了较高的冲击影响,主要表现为高频短周期效应;而经济周期对金融韧性周期波动也会产生影响,主要表现为低频长周期效应.第三,在新冠肺炎疫情时期,金融韧性周期对经济周期波动的影响较小;经济周期对金融韧性周期波动的影响也较小,但是该影响在未来有增大的趋势.     

当代金融危机的特征及其理论阐释

金融危机的内涵极其丰富,对它的研究和探索也始终处在一个不断发展的过程中,不断地被融入新的内容。当代金融危机以90年代爆发的三次大规模的金融危机为代表,即1992—1993年的欧洲货币体系危机,1994—1995年的墨西哥金融危机和1997—1998年的亚洲金融危机,这些危机显示出与以往危机不同的特点,如危机的超周期性、频率快、传导性强、较容易在新兴市场国家爆发的区域化特征,以及危机的双重性和货币危机的先导性等。本文尝试总结这些特征,并对国际学术界对这些特征的最新研究成果予以介绍。     

Financial Market Imperfections, Labour Market Imperfections and Business Cycles

A Greenwald–Stiglitz (1993a) style rational expectations business cycle model is introduced in which uncorrelated productivity shocks or monetary shocks generate autocorrelated employment fluctuations due to financial constraints. The propagation mechanism is carefully modelled: because of capital market imperfections (only standard debt contracts are traded), firms' labour demand changes in response to changes in their balance-sheet position; because of labour market imperfections (efficiency wages), employment and unemployment fluctuate in response to shifts in labour demand. The virtue of the model is its simplicity. Despite the fact that unemployment is endogenous, the dynamic behaviour of the model under rational expectations can be characterised analytically.
JEL classification : E 32     

Financial Globalization,International Business Cycles and Consumption Risk Sharing*

In spite of two decades of financial globalization, consumption‐based indicators do not seem to signal more international risk sharing. We argue that the fraction of idiosyncratic consumption risk that gets shared among industrialized countries has actually increased considerably over the period 1980–2000 and, in particular, during the 1990s—from around 30 to more than 60 percent. However, standard consumption‐based measures of risk sharing—such as the volatility of consumption conditional on output or international consumption correlations—have been unable to detect this increase because consumption has also been affected by the concurrent decline in the volatility of output growth in most industrialized countries since the 1980s. First, the volatility of output at business‐cycle frequencies has declined by more than has the volatility of permanent fluctuations. Since consumption reacts mainly to permanent shocks, it appears more volatile in relation to current changes in output. This effect seems to have offset the tendency of financial globalization to lower the volatility of consumption conditional on output. Second, because the variability of permanent global shocks has also fallen, international consumption correlations have also generally not increased as financial markets have become more integrated.     

“中国之谜”原因新解:金融资产膨胀假说

本简要回顾了“中国之谜”的由来并通过实证分析进一步证实了“中国之谜”的存在，然后在前人研究基础上提出了“金融资产膨胀假说”，试图解释“中国之谜”。实证分析结果表明，当考虑到金融资产这一新的变量对货币供应量的影响之后，传统的货币供应量与物价之间正相关的关系消失了。     

Credit and Business Cycles

This paper presents two dynamic models of the economy in which credit constraints arise because creditors cannot force debtors to repay debts unless the debts are secured by collateral. The credit system becomes a powerful propagation mechanism by which the effects of shocks persist and amplify through the interaction between collateral values, borrowers' net worth and credit limits. In particular, when fixed assets serve as collateral, I show that relatively small, temporary shocks to technology or wealth distribution can generate large, persistent fluctuations in output and asset prices.
JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E44     

融资约束与中国经济波动-新凯恩斯主义框架内的动态分析

本文在动态一般均衡框架内探讨投资融资约束冲击的动态特性,构建了一个新凯恩斯主义刚性价格模型,通过扩展传统的货币先行约束,引入投资的融资约束冲击。模型的动态结果很好地解释了数据中的发现。为了从理论上讨论货币政策规则应对该冲击的能力及其机理,我们分别模拟了不同参数的泰勒规则和货币供给规则,结果显示:盯住通货膨胀和产出缺口的货币政策能够较好地对冲投资融资约束冲击的负面影响。该理论结果为金融危机时期的中国货币政策提供了有益的建议。     

Balance Mechanics and Business Cycles

Abstract

Many mainstream business cycle theories were not able to cope with the financial crisis theoretically. With his concept of balance mechanics, the German economist Wolfgang Stützel developed a framework for comparing different theories of business cycles which helps to understand the reasons for this inadequacy. This paper works out Stützel’s considerations and his four “model cases” of cycles more systematically and shows how the theories of the business cycle Stützel mentioned are related to theories discussed today. Modern business cycle theories did not cover all “model cases” and therefore had a blind spot.     

Emerging Market Business Cycles: Recent Advances

Higher variability of consumption relative to output and strong countercyclicality of the trade balance are important regularities of emerging market business cycles. This paper surveys the recent advances in the literature with a goal to understanding the main drivers of these regularities. The literature suggests that trend shocks or countercyclical interest rate shocks are useful modeling tools, but these shocks need to be amplified through inherent frictions to capture these two regularities with realistic calibrations. Informational frictions in expectation formation and search-matching frictions in the labor market appear to provide powerful amplification to trend shocks and countercyclical interest rate shocks, respectively.